WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[wilwarin538]

Gah, and I felt so good about Glirdypie this game.

I think this is the likely scenario:

ShastaSeer dreams of an innocent Nerwen, and leaves his various hints.

GlirdyRanger catches the hints and protects Nerwen.

Wolfies also catch the hints and try to kill Nerwen. Fail.

Next Day, Glirdy basically outlines that same scenario.

Wolfies see that as a Ranger hint. They could go for Nerwen who is basically a proven innocent and can't be protected a second Night in a row, or they could go after a likely Ranger and not have to worry about him anymore. Choice B is clearly what they went for.

So now we have a very likely innocent in Nerwen, but no Ranger or Seer, and Nerwen will likely be killed toNight. The Hunter definitely should not reveal any time soon.

I'm gonna sleep, then I have Church in the morning, but I'll be on all afternoon. I'll list some suspects then.

x'ed with nog

[Nogrod]

Just a minute... (they always say smoking is bad for you, but once again a cigarette gave me a question)

After the Night-kill is announced people wish to find out who were after the deed and why they picked the one they did. Some go for the previous Day's votes, some go for hints, seer-hints, what have you, some go for general patterns, some for what the killed said, some for what others said of the killed etc...

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Okay, I'm not sure I can express what I want to say... but it just feels odd you only come up with those quotes... and kind of do nothing else to constructively help bringing any ideas to the fore. Blah. Language fails me here.


Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf...

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Inzil. It looks like you have been reading what Glirdy had said yesterDay but I see no post from you summarising it - or telling us anything about it on general terms - like why you have been reading them or what did you find out from them.

Why look at Glirdan? Do you really need an answer to that?
And what I found out? That he probably would have looked like the Ranger and that's why he was killed.

As for anything else he said on Day 2, (which amounted to three posts, only two of substance), he did say that he thought the wolves in the Shasta voters would have been the later ones, and he singled out yours and Greenie's. Is that the 'summary' you had in mind?
Also, he questioned Legate some, and said he wanted to "take a closer look at [Legate]". However, since it was known at that point that Glirdan could not be the Seer, I see little chance the wolves would have killed him for that, if Legate was one of them.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wilwa: Now this is a complicated issue... I read the early hours of the Day2 (I had no time to read it through to the end) and you did downplay the idea - while keeping the door open when the discussion was brewing. I don't remember when you voted or with what reasons, but it is a delicate thing.

Let's put it this way: not all those who voted Pitch were wolves and not all those who voted someone else were not innocents. Or vice versa. We can't make our judgements based on that alone. In this kind of situation we have to look at who reacted and in which way on which part of the Day (the general feeling being this or that at that exact time). So voting him as one of the first is no explanation.

Actually, if you think of it, it would be a good place for a wolf...

Yeah, time-issues etc... I mean it is not simple.

Well, I'm not sure what you're seeing. My first post I wasn't positive about Pitch, I talked about Nerwen maybe being the dream, but all my posts after that I stressed that Pitch should be the lynch, very strongly. I guess you must really just be looking at the very start of the day (when I only had the one post).

And I agree that the way that lynch went it will be much harder to look at people based on votes. Even if not everyone agreed on his suspiciousness, it was still pretty clear he'd end up being the lynch. It was like no one really wanted to, since the only reason was because of the possibility of him being Shasta's dream (he wasn't overly suspicious on his own) but everyone kind of knew it was still a good idea to do it (even Pitch realised that).

So a wolf could easily vote him and say 'oh well, he seemed to be a seer dream, of course we had to give it a try', while a wolf could have also voted for someone else and say 'Pitch wasn't suspicious enough on his own, and the seer hints were too obvious'. So a wolf could have gone either way and their votes wouldn't look that bad.

These were the votes yesterDay, just to see:

Legate -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Pitch
Greenie -> Skip
Ozzy -> Pitch (2)
Wilwa -> Pitch (3)
Inzil -> Pitch (4)
Skip -> Legate
Pitch -> Lottie (2)
Boro -> Pitch (5)
Lottie -> Pitch (6)
Nog -> Lottie (3)
Eonwe -> Lottie (4)

So all but Greenie and Skip voted for either Pitch or Lottie.

Now those who didn't vote for Pitch. If we hadn't of lynched him we could have wasted a whole other day discussing the possibility of him being the Seer dream. Did some people perhaps want us to kill someone else so that we'd waste another Day talking about Pitch? I'd see that as being something the wolves would like. Get us to kill a different innocent, and than know that we'd go after InnocentPitch toDay. That's two Days safe for them. That may be stretching a bit, but it's not an impossible scenario.

x'ed with Inzil

[Loslote]

Right, well, I was hoping to see a bit more before I got back...as it happens, I generally find myself agreeing with Vanilwuffin and Nog, trusting Zil, and flip-flopping about Boro. I won't have any chance at all to get on in the morning, so I'll have to vote insanely early toDay.

So far, I'm not going to vote for:
Zil
Vanilwuffin
Nerwen
Nog

I probably won't vote for:
Boro, who's been making sense and posting a lot, and hasn't struck me as at all wolvish.
Ozzy, who, for a newbie, is doing extraordinarly well and has given me nothing suspicious to worry about.
Greenie, actually - after looking back over her posts, I'm feeling a lot better about her.

Which leaves:
Steve
Legate
Skip

None of those three am I particularly suspicious of. I dunno...maybe Skip more so than the other three, but still, I don't have much on him.

Oh, and just a note - Nog could easily fit in the 'probably' section better than the 'definitely' section in terms of trust, but since he's making a lot of sense, he got bumped up a section.

[Loslote]

Really? Nothing? Right, well, I have to vote now, so after reading through the thread, I'm going to:

++Skip

Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

[Ozban]

Reading through all that is surely puzzling. I've had few Legate-180s.
Thing is that there is still eleven of us, 3 puppies, 1 traitor, a hunter and 6 ordo's.

From what I think:

trust: Nog
Nerwen
Eonwe

suspects: Legate
Skip
Inzil
Lottie

Puzzled by: Boro
Wilwa

Greenie is somehow quiet, or so it seems, but i don't have anything against her.

I'll be here later in the afternoon. So I'll try to sum more then.

Later...

[skip spence]

Man, this has been a very unfortunate start to the game. First the Seer, and with him he takes an innocent, and now our ranger! I'm not too happy about how Shasta singled out someone he didn't know the role of, that made Day 2 an all too easy ride for the wolves.

What Nogrod says pretty much mirrors my spontaneous thoughts of how things have played out.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With the lucky strike of the seer, who attacked Pitchie full frontal with odd reasons and got lynched on D1, the wolves must have "known" that Pitchie was the lynch of the Day yesterDay.

So first I thought I should find those who went for lynching Pitchie the strongest, but then I realised that at least smart wolves would like to stress the opposite, or at least try to downplay the scenario to look good afterwards.

So here's why I'm looking at you Legate...

For now I'm thinking Boro and Nerwen look good both for their attitude towards Pitchie - seeing the situation, making a case of it but at the same time taking the innocent's reservations - and their general reasonableness (Nerwen also because of the probable seer dream).

Agreed that the wolves would have had no need to push the lynching of Pitch. Nor would they stand out for participating in it, mind you. Seeing how our Seer had singled him out on Day 1, The noose was tightening around Pitch's neck pretty much from the start.

I also agree that Legate is beginning to look bad. Will review his actions now...

[skip spence]

Legate Day 1:

His first post includes this paragraph which in retrospect made my hair stand up, there is something very unnerving about it.

Originally Posted by Legate

It is true what Nogrod said here, that we are lucky for no drastic twists which sometimes come from the minds of those who set-up such schemes as the one we have gotten ourselves into... If there is anything that troubles me now, it is the selection of people, because basically all of you, my friends, are the ones I consider of the most bold and clever, in one way or another, and I would not like any of you to be on the side of evil...

A possible parallel is how Glirdan was caught as the ranger for talking about the ranger in third person... Very clever wolves indeed

He then went on to start this cobbler talk that took up much of Day One as far as discussions went.

Then, after some seemingly meaningless chatter Legate is first to raise concerns about that Shasta-Lottie exchange.

Originally Posted by Legate

The last exchange between Shasta and Lottie made me curious a bit, I wouldn't have thought Shasta strange by himself, but the way Lottie pointed it out seems rather weird - but Shasta's reaction likewise. His reaction was a bit, well, aggressive? To such a minor thing (or so it would seem). But the funniest part was Lottie's backing away after that. And the sort of repetitive "I think you are suspicious, BUT in fact I do not", which immediately made me think of Wolf-on-Wolf accusations, which are just a theatre for us... Not to say that Shasta's initial suspicion of Pitch could well be a simple random accusation made by a Wolf in order to have some good person to vote for toDay...

Well it's too early for any good suspicions, but this just raised my attention. As with everything, noting this down and looking forward to see how the Day continues, especially from the two...

Later Leggy responds to Greenie who voices concerns that this talk concerning cobblers in general is a distraction.

Originally Posted by Legate

You can read a lot from people's reactions - actually, that's the only way you can read something on Day 1 (since you don't have any evidence yet from the Night-kills) - and that's what I planned to do (instead of just in-character banter or random "I think XY is a Wolf, because I don't like his avvie!"). And people react, speak their minds and so on, and that's the whole point...

Yes, but what can people's reaction to general ideas on how to deal with a cobbler, that we have yet no idea who he or she is, do to help us? I fail to see any use in that discussion, it strikes me as a distraction only.

Legate than post a few longish but pretty hollow posts. No strong opinions on anybody or anything, and seems content to continue to discuss general game-play and such...

Eventually he votes Lottie rather apologetically:

Originally Posted by Legate

Secondly, as for Lottie's vote for Shasta... now of course it might be "they think we are W-on-W, now let's show them they were wrong, and in the best case, they will cease suspecting as and not even lynch any of us toDay!" I mean, just look at it, people really are dropping suspicions after this... I don't know if I shouldn't, too. I would, personally, now prefer to lynch Lottie to shasta, because she was the one who made the vote, so if it was like I just outlined above, then I find her more likely guilty (or if just one of them is a WW, she is more likely to be a Wolf just trying to lynch innocent shasta now, since all of the innocents would have two options, so of course she'd want to make us lynch the other person. But then again, if she is innocent, what else should she do). Why I don't want to lynch her so much, however, is also that she was lynched on Day 1 last game too... but well, well. I will now just take a look at the list of players and see if there isn't any other possible pick...
...
++Lottie

Also of interest is how Ozban votes Legate

Originally Posted by Ozzy

+ + Legate

To clarify, which I feel I should, at least rudimentary:
I can't be sure of anybody. Eventhough Shasta and Lottie seem strange, mostly that Shasta's opinions of Pitch which seem to strangely fluctuate, (ad. Glirdan's post above).
Legate attacks, but always leaves himself some "escape path", he's too eager to back down. He does seem to try not to offend anyone. Eventhough it's not what I mean exactly, He's way too agreeable (or alibistic, your choice).

Anyway, my sixth sense tells me to vote for him.

Day 2 to come...