WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[Aganzir]

I have to go now, and my opinions haven't really changed much because I haven't had time to, well, change them.

++skip

I'll have to do some serious thinking before being able to determine who in this bunch is a wolf, and I don't really suspect skip of wolvery but he looks like a very possible cobbler to me (for reasons I've mentioned in my previous posts). It's now two wolves & the cobbler against six villagers, and despite the fact that they can't be sure of each other's identities, lynching the cobbler wouldn't do any harm.

See you (hopefully) some time toMorrow.

[skip spence]

I'm here and gonna give this an hour or so, reading back to try to make some sense of what's been happening. Not too happy about how yesterDay and Night unfolded...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

++skip
I'll have to do some serious thinking before being able to determine who in this bunch is a wolf, and I don't really suspect skip of wolvery but he looks like a very possible cobbler to me (for reasons I've mentioned in my previous posts). It's now two wolves & the cobbler against six villagers, and despite the fact that they can't be sure of each other's identities, lynching the cobbler wouldn't do any harm.

Not so happy about this vote. If you think I'm a wolf, fair enough, but a vote on solely the account of some flimsy cobblery accusation seems suspect.

I mean. like Agan says, the cobbler has no way of knowing the identity of the wolves at the moment. Doesn't this mean that cobbler can just as easily do the wolves harm as he/she can be of help to them, really? In the light of this, going for the cobbler when there are two wolves out there seems odd. But as much as I'd like to quarrel with Agan about this, it looks like she's gone for the Day.

Okay, will do some reading now...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Not so happy about this vote. If you think I'm a wolf, fair enough, but a vote on solely the account of some flimsy cobblery accusation seems suspect.

I mean. like Agan says, the cobbler has no way of knowing the identity of the wolves at the moment. Doesn't this mean that cobbler can just as easily do the wolves harm as he/she can be of help to them, really?

Indeed, it might be argued that if you're the cobbler we should certainly keep you around.
However–

Originally Posted by skip spence

In the light of this, going for the cobbler when there are two wolves out there seems odd.

It's not really that odd, if you've got no idea who else to vote– cobblers who survive into the endgame are very dangerous, because then the wolves can reveal openly, and they all vote together.

It is also true, of course, that going after "the cobbler" can be a lupine excuse for failure to hunt wolves.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Indeed, it might be argued that if you're the cobbler we should certainly keep you around.

It might...

It's not really that odd, if you've got no idea who else to vote– cobblers who survive into the endgame are very dangerous, because then the wolves can reveal openly, and they all vote together.

True that. Still I'd argue that would be more of a concern for the wolves trying to make sure they don't accidentally kill the cobbler, then a concern for the village trying to actively hunt down the cobbler.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

True that. Still I'd argue that would be more of a concern for the wolves trying to make sure they don't accidentally kill the cobbler, then a concern for the village trying to actively hunt down the cobbler.

Yes, but what I'm saying is that the cobbler can make an acceptable fallback lynch if you're not sure who else to vote. (Wolves, as I also said, may also hunt the cobbler to look useful.)

EDIT:X'd with Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't have time to go and check it right now so I ask: wouldn't voting for a packmate be an especially good idea if an innocent was a certain lynch?

No, because there were people who suspected Eomer. Thus, voting him could (and in fact did) put up fairly high on the potential lynch list very quickly. At least four people had previously said that they suspected, didn't trust, etc. Eomer. If Lottie is his packmate and she knows there is a possibility that people will jump onto her vote, would she really vote for her packmate, especially when she could just sit still and wait for Wilwa to die? I don't think so.

I could be wrong, of course, but I don't see Lottie making that move at that time.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sally - Worries me. Her point against Agan (yesterDay, the thing about why Agan voted her and not Elf-Wolf) looks like a wolf trying to turn the suspicion away from her furry self; her indecisiveness on Eomer looks like wolf-on-wolf or just wolf trying to keep their nose clean. She will probably get my vote toDay.

I think this is interesting, considering that before she wasn't sure about whether I was wolf hunting or a wolf myself, and now she seems certain that I was deflecting. She seems to have just magically made the decision just so she can vote me with a semi-clear conscience and have a good "case" on me. Bwah?


*blinks* Heh. It's been a while since I've been a regular ordo. I forgot how much I focus on making sure people suspect wolves rather than me. I do so hate for people to waste their time on frivolous accusations. Then again, at this point I'm thinking Greenie's likely a wolf, so that's comforting.


EDIT: x'd with Skip

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

No, because there were people who suspected Eomer. Thus, voting him could (and in fact did) put up fairly high on the potential lynch list very quickly. At least four people had previously said that they suspected, didn't trust, etc. Eomer. If Lottie is his packmate and she knows there is a possibility that people will jump onto her vote, would she really vote for her packmate, especially when she could just sit still and wait for Wilwa to die? I don't think so.

All right, that makes more sense.

EDIT:X'd with Sally and Skip.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

Greenie's #206 is the most worrisome post for me. She gives the possibility both of me catching Agan and me trying to set her up, and then quickly seems to decide that I must be the evil one in the situation. Quick hop of logic there.

Yes, but she did give a reason for that in the same post:

Originally Posted by Greenie

Because if an Aganwolf would have thought the narration pointed to one of her pack being protected by the ranger, she wouldn't exactly point it out and encourage people to check who it was, would she?

EDIT:X'd with Sally.

[satansaloser2005]

She would if she thought it wouldn't point back to her or her packmate. In fact, it woud be a wise move, because people would do two predictable things....

1. Waste time checking through Boro's posts for hints that may not even exist.

2. Follow up on those hints by voting people he clearly trusted/might have protected, thus not voting for Agan or her partner.



I'm not saying it's the case, I'm just saying that it would be a clever move. And, as we both know from past pack experience, Agan is a very clever wolf.

[skip spence]

Okay, looking at how the voting and discussion unfolded yesterDay there is one thing that makes me stop to wonder.

The whole thing just sort of died out after Wilwa got her third vote (by me, terribly sorry about that!), didn't it? Here's how it went down:

Wilwa votes for Loslote

Nerwen votes for Wilwa

Boromir votes for Sally

Green votes for Wilwa (2)

skip votes for Wilwa (3)

Now we know that Wilwa and Boro were innocent and their motivations can't be mistrusted. Me, Nerwen and Greenie vote for Wilwa rather early, for reasons that did turn out to be faulty, but were rather clearly expressed early on. Then nothing really happened up until the DL.

Thing is, with the knowledge that Wilwa was an ordo, any wolves left to vote at that point would have been perfectly happy just sit back and waiver back and forth in indecision, wouldn't they? Their hands clean and all that.

Now I'm not saying that Nerwen and Greenie are necessarily innocent, but there's just something about the situation that makes me think that there were no wolves among the Wilwa-voters. Could be wrong, of course, yet:

Originally Posted by Agan

Sally and Pitch, why did you leave voting until so late?

Yes indeed. Why did you?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by skip

Now with less than 10 minutes left of the Day, almost than half the village - and at least one wolf - is yet to vote, so anything can still happen. Vote tally at this point: 2 Fea, 2 Elf, 1 Pitch, 1 Greenie, 1 Sally

Originally Posted by Sally

How could he possibly know that? Skip, care to explain?

Yes. Elf was a wolf, remember?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Yes. Elf was a wolf, remember?

Wait a minute....wait a minute....*looks* Oh bother. I'm terribly sorry. I'd been page hopping and for some reason I thought that was on Day Two, not Day One.


Never mind then....

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wait a minute....wait a minute....*looks* Oh bother. I'm terribly sorry. I'd been page hopping and for some reason I thought that was on Day Two, not Day One.


Never mind then....

Do you know, I made the same mistake? For a moment I thought I'd been privileged to witness one of the great wolf-slips of all time. But alas!