WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Wait a second, what? Phantom, you say you suspect Mac less because he didn't write off his 'hints' as ploys, because it would have been easy to? That makes no sense. What kind of ploys would they have been, had he said otherwise? It seems to me that claiming they were ploys would have led to Mac having to at least softclaim a role, so... I'm not seeing why that makes him less suspicious.

[Macalaure]

Thanks, phantom.

I got a bit too irritated up there, I think. From my perspective, all those points are kind of ludicrous, and ignoring them just made it all worse. I can understand how Boro/Nerwen/Eonwe feel now.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

Greenie - is there any way I can convince you I'm not Hades? Of all the cases I've seen, yours looks most earnest (opposed to phantom, who doesn't seem to actually believe in his own theory, and Shasta, who just jumps on it), but all I can say to it is that it's not the case.

You can convince me of nothing, I'm afraid, but you're doing a really good job just by sounding so innocent. Eurgh. I'm really torn now - my cold hard logic says wolf, my warm softer side (that would probably believe almost any "I'm not a wolf" -statement just because it doesn't want to admit that in werewolf nice people lie all the time) says innocent. I'm way too easy to fool, apparently.

Nah, and I'm dead tired and should be going to bed now. Vote in a sec...


EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[A Little Green]

Just quickly - Nog, cool down a bit, please. You are not exactly recommending your argument by that, especially right after telling phantom to relax.

Originally Posted by Nog

I have seen no argument why we should not take Nerwen's possible hint seriously. It was very early (first post) and she could have relied all the people would banter like they always do, so her little one would drown in the sea of God-names thrown around but her lover might pick it: so little danger, possible rewards - but alas! that didn't happen! It soon emerged that people were quite careful not using the banter-mode - and the whole hint-thing became a big issue.

I have given you one, others have given you others I believe. Don't you read what others post? *cough* Like I said, I don't believe Nerwen's "What the Hades" was a hint though there is nothing wrong with your argument itself. I don't believe it because I don't think Nerwen's way of hinting she was Hades would be to scream "Hades". It was either Day 1 banter (more probable, as I think others have pointed out) or a hint from Persephone to Hades (which doesn't really make sense, but was my initial thought).

[A Little Green]

I think Nog's obsession with Hades-Nerwen is as badly founded as... my obsession with Hades-Mac I suppose. But really, a Hades-Nerwen just doesn't sit right with me at all, I simply can't see her doing that as Hades. While I have doubts about my Hades-Mac, I find it an infinitely more probable scenario. (And at least I admit I may be wrong and consider other alternatives..)

Alas! here go my hopes of a game that doesn't involve quarreling with Nog. Oh well.


EDIT: x-ed with Inzil and 2x Shasta

[A Little Green]

And this time I'm truly off to bed. I'll go with the best lead I have and vote

++Mac

I'm not as convinced about this as I was, but still more convinced about this than anything else. And besides, Mac's lynch would shed light on the role of many others - I'm thinking mainly Nerwen, Nog, Lottie, Rikae, and possibly Shasta and phantom too.

Good night!


EDIT: x-ed with phantom

[wilwarin538]

Ok. I'm here, and have spent the last 30 minutes reading. And after the initial frustration and confusion, I think I've come to understand everything *sigh*. So my thoughts.

About the BoroSeer: I don't want to put any stock at all into anything he said, because he could be False. Yeah, he could be legit, but he just as easily might not be and I don't want to run after any hint of anything that could be wrong. Besides, I don't see any real hints about anyone's role except maybe the Mira one, but that would seem to be towards a positive role not a Wolf anyway. Maybe if at some point it becomes clear he *was* the real one, maybe than we can go back and see something useful.

About why BoroSeer died: could be a number of reasons. Maybe the Wolves saw the seer hints in his first post (the ones Phantom pointed out about the seerish words). Maybe they saw the hunter hints and figured the smaller the village was, the more dangerous the hunter is, so they wanted to get rid of him early. Or maybe they just thought he was a useful player and it was a good idea to get rid of him.


Now some comments on a few things:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Don't they teach little seers in elementary school not to make jokes about seers in their first post? Now Boro is dead.

I had a look at his posts. I agree with phantom that Boro probably didn't try to hint us his alignment. (Unless he dreamt of him, found him a non-wolf, and fooled around with him a little to try to guess whether the role he dreamt of was correct.) His hint to Keeper is strange. There's a ton of things he could have thought she was and I don't understand how he got to suspect any of them. I don't think he tried to hint an Eonwe-wolf to us. Other than the -4-comment he only mentioned him once, telling us that we're talking about him enough. Now, if I knew the identity of a wolf, that's not what I'd tell people to do.

First line made me giggle, and I pretty much agree with the rest. As a side note, I don't get the supposed Hades hints coming from Mac, they seem like a bit of stretch.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So, are you saying that as a wolf you'd rather kill the seer than leave one of your own to get killed so early on?

Because Boro basically voted for me for no reason, so obviously if the wolves killed him it would point straight to me. Wouldn't that be more than a little risky?

Uh, a) yes and b) a manageable amount of risk. It's better for the Wolves to let one of their own go, then to let the Seer live long enough to reveal the rest of them. And if you were a wolf and he hinted about you, and there was any reason to think him the seer, of course the wolves would want him dead. Wolves don't want to keep the seer alive, and if it points towards one of their own, that's something they have to risk. I really don't like your reasoning here.

Originally Posted by the phantom

On the subject of Steve- I said yesterday I didn't think he looked like Dionysus and I stick by that, so if Boro was the false Seer and dreamed of Steve then I believe he is innocent, as it's unlikely the false dream yielded the correct role. If Boro was the real Seer and dreamed Steve then I was at least right about him not being Dionysus, but obviously we should lynch him for Wolfdom. Bleh. Which is more likely?

Just the fact that the second is even a bit likely should be enough for us to consider lynching him. Mixed with the fact that even if he isn't a wolf, he could still be Dyonisis. I think it would just clear a lot of things up either way.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Now, does this mean that there is a Cobbler, or is it a 'just in case' for this:

There isn't one. Glirdy must have considered it and then forgot to take that out of the Mytho's role discription.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I have seen no argument why we should not take Nerwen's possible hint seriously. It was very early (first post) and she could have relied all the people would banter like they always do, so her little one would drown in the sea of God-names thrown around but her lover might pick it: so little danger, possible rewards - but alas! that didn't happen! It soon emerged that people were quite careful not using the banter-mode - and the whole hint-thing became a big issue.

I was inclined to think it was just banter, but this actually really does make sense. It does seem almost too obvious for her to throw out the name of her own role like that, but if she assumed their would be a lot of banter then it wouldn't have seemed so crazy. I don't know, I'm on the fence about that one, cause otherwise Nerwen doesn't seem all too bad to me. But I do agree that it is very possible.

About the Mytho: not too much we can do about it, cause I don't *think* Glirdy was planning to hint at what the Mytho may have chosen (could be wrong though). Maybe just watch to see if anyone's behaviour takes a major shift? I dunno.

Uhm. I think that's all I have for now. I really need food, but then after that I should be around a lot. (may even be awake enough to stay up later than usual though probably not all the way til DL).

x'd with Nerwen and Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I have given you one, others have given you others I believe.

I'm not sure about yours, but your belief in others really responding to the believability of the exact scenario is more or less non-existent.

I don't believe Nerwen's "What the Hades" was a hint though there is nothing wrong with your argument itself. I don't believe it because I don't think Nerwen's way of hinting she was Hades would be to scream "Hades". It was either Day 1 banter (more probable, as I think others have pointed out) or a hint from Persephone to Hades (which doesn't really make sense, but was my initial thought)

That's exactly the point darling! When she did that she was justifiably in the belief it would not have stood out! But then the game got into a totally another path and hardly anyone bantered or called the Gods... I'm trying to say she was thinkig it would fit in and not arouse attention but against her well-grounded beliefs it ended up calling attention.

It's easy to say, lookng at Day1 as it is now afterwards that only a fool would have put a hint in there as there is so little of any God-name-dropping (the best way to hint) - but could have not been known when the girst posters were posting.

And I do agree, Persephone has no need to hint at Hades as Hades already knows who Persephone is. It's the task of Hades to guide Persephone into guessing it right during the Nights with her PM's. So let's forget that Persephone / Nerwen talk. That is far-fwetched and illogical - still many people seem to find the improbability of Persephone hinting meaning suspicions on Nerwen are far-fetched...

My frustration comes only from this, that peole don't pick the actual argument and say it's rubbish because, but only say "Nerwen wouldn't have done that" not ewven considering the circumstances etc that the argument relies on.

Blah. Said once again. And will not say it anymore. If Nerwen is a wolf, you laid the table for her. Be my quests.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Thank's phantom. You I think are the first to actually try to get to grips with the point. I'll answer shortly as I do disagree of Nerwen's and Mac's cases to be similar.

But this quick one first:

Originally Posted by Greenie

(And at least I admit I may be wrong and consider other alternatives..)

I may be wrong as well. Only seers and wolves can claim otherwise. Also I have and will consider other alternatives - and couldn't say you have done that a lot... So how do I get an impression of shining one's boots in front of the audience from here? (If one can put it that way?)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by tp

The reason for accusing her is her first post, in which she says "What the Hades is going on here?"

Yes. And it is interesting that from all the 20 characters she picked up one of the two God-wolfs who had to really desperately contact their lover as early as possible. To be fair, Hades as a random-choice is not too bad (look at the carnage that is coming!). But Zeus would be the most understandable (as the King of the Gods), and also Ares (there's a war brewing on here!), Pallas Athene (We need your wisdom to solve this!), Apollo (We need your keen eyes to help us!), Eros (Oh, let love prevail insterad of anger!)... you see it?

So the choice could be a random-one an innocent takes (count in name-recognition and relevance of the God's abilities to the situation), but it is one of many choices an innocent might have had - and the pick just happened to be the one wolf who needs to send a message to his lover!

Originally Posted by tp

When that statement was pointed to yesterday, she responded with these statements-

These explanations are essentially the same thing that Mac gave to me today- a complete and utter denial of having intended anything at all.

The fact is, Hades would have known going into the day whether or not he was going to hint, and also would have been aware that such hinting was likely to be pointed out. There would be a plan in his head for that eventuality, surely? He would have an explanation ready! So, why didn't Nerwen give a more graceful and intelligent explanation (i.e. claim that she was helping the village by giving Persephone false leadings for instance)?

No- I place her explanation and Mac's in the same boat. Both make me feel better. I may be wrong, but there it is. You may not agree, Nog, but do you see my reasoning?

I see your reasoning but I must say I do disagree, at least partially. It's true they both utterly deny any suspicions on the basis of "I didn't think it that way" - and both are as bad in that, as every wolf would have answered similarly. But I do not think they are essentially the same. Especially your point about how Hades would have done gives me a pause. I mean you might have done all those preparations but I'd guess most of us wouldn't. We all don't have pages of scenarios ready before starting a game or masterplans and their variations for every possible occurence. So from time to time the wolves need to just come up with "an explanation" - graceful or not - and comparing thpose two I find two main differences: a) Mac's explanation looks more or less honest (if you can say that in this game) and Nerwen's looks more like avoiding (especially that what was there to answer about?), and b) comparing the relative merits of the hints they're claimed to have made, you (well I at least) have a believable case with Nerwen and quite a fabricated one with Mac.


Okay. I hope that is it from my part on the issue. I'll try to read something else just to freshen my mind.



ADD: just saw Nerwen's latest... until phantom's post on the issue a moment ago, no one addressed the argument - and even he kind of went just bedside it. Read up above what I'm after (or #390, or my Gods, any post I've made on the issue). I can adjust my mind if someone shows me where my point goes wrong, but as long as no one even considers it, I'm just going to get more and more frustrated. But who cares.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My frustration comes only from this, that peole don't pick the actual argument and say it's rubbish because, but only say "Nerwen wouldn't have done that" not ewven considering the circumstances etc that the argument relies on.

*sigh* Here we go again: perhaps other people have "considered the circumstances" and found your explanation less likely than mine?

As a general comment, Nog: I don't know whether you're pressed for time, or what it is, but this game you seem to be sort of playing in a bubble. You keep complaining– quite aggressively, too– that other people are ignoring things, when the issues in question have been argued over and over and over.. and you don't seem to have noticed. In other words–

Don't you read what others post? (repeat 7x)

EDIT:X'd since Nog at #402.