WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am around, however not sure how much time I will have. Not right now, at least, maybe later in the evening (that is, some six hours from now, or a bit later).

For now, in any case, at least here goes my favoured suspect Inzil, and I need to look at other people, even though I sort of wanted to give it a shot. Morsul has raised some controversy, as I see, though he seemed innocent to me before - or at least a "normal Morsul". This self-vote is slightly more puzzling, but then again, if I think about it more deeply, I could imagine an annoyed Morsul doing that. Nonetheless, it can be a last desperate attempt to save himself (or rather half-desperate half-resigned move, as it does not have a perspective, I believe, even if it was so and if it was succesful in making the village go "a Wolf wouldn't say that, let's leave him alone", eventually in a Day or two we'd return to him, I'm sure, but still I can imagine Morsul doing it). But since I cannot tell according to his behavior whether he is just innocent Morsul or maybe a more clever version of Morsul pretending to be innocent, I might as well look at his interactions with sally/Glirdan/Nogrod when I have time (which means not now). That's something that probably should be the key to us in general, as far as we can gather from their attitudes towards other people. We should bear in mind that the WWs, especially later (Nog?) when they saw they are rather doomed, might have possibly tried to disconnect themselves from their remaining packmate, however, there are still certainly things where they'd be more careful and e.g. avoid talking too much with their mates or something. Also the earlier we go (when they felt safe), I think the more we could find, although of course then again, back then they could not have had problems with interacting with their packmates in certain ways because there were just still many people and the WWs didn't think they'll be spotted.

Anyway - that's something that I am going to possibly try to do, but later, for now I will hang around for a while, but probably not have much time to read anything in detail, and then I will be off for several hours.

As for the death of Nienna, as far as I can see it seems most probable to me that she was killed as a person who was generally thought innocent. No other obvious motives (and seems nobody else noticed anything like that either).

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?

And last of all, I've been called wishy-washy on Wolves, come on, I have voted them in the end (or more or less), and I think a Wolf wouldn't make such a show out of being undecided. That is, speaking of that, also something I want to consider when looking for the WW connections - I think the WWs will be generally rather decided (if they e.g. decided to nail their comrade from the beginning), or with some "back door" open there, but not so openly (i.e. not like talking to oneself aloud for ten posts whether to vote this person or not, but sort of quietly remarking "...but what it" or leaving the door open, Nogrod actually has partially done something like that). I think for example reviewing Nogrod's behavior towards those who seemed to be getting obviously lynched (esp. Glirdan, since with Sally it was Wolf or Wolf) might give some clue to the identity of the last Wolf, i.e. maybe if there was somebody with the same/diametrally opposite behavior who at the same time was sort of careful and not interacting with Nogrod too much etc. - such a person would be a likely suspect for me. But, like I said, I don't have time to check it now.

EDIT: x-ed since Agan, and certainly thanks to Lommy for the list! So maybe I can actually look at something now at least generally...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so if I were to think based on the voting list:

Winty would give some Wolf-on-Wolf votes, but as far as I remember, it was more or less at the phase when lot of it was decided (although at one point I recall him voting either right before or after me, I think it was even before, so that would sort of indicate for his innocence at that time, as it was by the time that the person did not have too many votes yet and WW was basically giving a sort of decisive, or a "now it's real and strong bandwaggon"-type vote).

Lommy is innocent basically 100% for me. There's no way she would have acted like that as a Wolf.

Morsul: hard to say, but given the fact that he's been voting early... wouldn't it be a bit counterproductive esp. when it comes to voting Sally and Glirdan? I don't think (with all due respect ) that Morsul is so bold to vote two of his packmates out, especially given that Nogrod was certainly not as bold. By the way, that makes me think strongly that even his other packmate was not so bold, so I'll be looking for the last Wolf probably mainly among the people who weren't very bold or downright voted somewhere "throwaway".

That would partially apply to Aganzir. Now I wonder if I should be worried.

Skip would be another option. A very good newbie Wolf, with very little suspicion and all, slipping nicely unnoticed through the crowd... Of course the question would be if he is a Wolf or a very individualistic innocent who is very reasonable and refuses to join the general bandwaggons. I think I am going to recheck him, and what he said about Nog, and vice versa, etc...

Shasta... could be something similar, also quite a lot of these "throwaway" votes.

Brinn, if she's a Wolf, would have a really Wolf-on-Wolf, or at least from Day 2 (3? Have to check if she voted Sally when there was mainly her or Glirdan already, or when there was still yet a chance to start a bandwaggon for somebody else - or on the other hand, if she didn't vote Sally when it YET didn't look like she would be necessarily voted by many at all).

Nerwen... well, that'd be basically the same as above.

Mira: ahem... okay. If she's the Wolf, I hope she is going to be modfired. As that'd certainly not be fair for all of us to lynch each other and then find out that it was her all the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Morsul

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Trying to boss me around, eh?

No I'm just trying to come up with a way to make myself feel better in case you turn out to be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Lommy

If Mira's a wolf, would there have been a kill last Night? And if she wins as a wolf, is it very fair?

Possibly not. And no, but whatever her role, it isn't exactly fair to anyone that she doesn't post (yes Mira I know you have some RL stuff but that doesn't serve as an excuse throughout the whole game); not to the innocents if she's a wolf, and not to the wolf if she's eg. a gifted. And that's why modfire exists.

Originally Posted by Lommy

the first wolf-on-wolf vote from both of them was against Nog

The first wolf vote, you mean? In any case we don't know Mira's & Morsul's roles.

Originally Posted by Legz

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?

If you thought my theory about Nog slipping his furry thoughts about the urgency of finding the cursed might be true after all, then I don't need it explained. If you thought the said theory might not be true, then I do.

Okay now I'm going to analyse Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

So, I have already talked about the way I didn't like Skip on Day 3, specifically his sheer persistence in defending Glirdan– and that was before we knew Glirdan was a wolf.

Here he is on the other two Days a wolf got lynched:

Skip, Day 2

#235. Asks why Lottie is now a known innocent.


#257
Finds Agan suspicious for making such a big deal about dumping retractables.


#268

Originally Posted by Skip

The wolves know the identity of the cobbler, right?

#270

Originally Posted by Skip

But does the cobbler know the identity of the wolves? I'm having problem figuring out the role Fea would try to play.

Comments: Those two posts could equally be either honest questions, or a wolf playing the newbie card– no way of telling.


#274
Find Glirdan and Nienna suspect for their Day One votes having apparently worked out for himself that throwaways aren't a good thing:

Originally Posted by Skip

Ok so from the wolves' perspective it did not matter if Fea or Lottie was lynched? They wouldn't care either way, it's all good.

So any wolf yet to vote would probably keep a low profile when it looked like either one of those two would die, you know act wishy-washy, and then come up with some half-decent explanation to vote for any random person

.


#400. "I'm here" post.


#423.

Originally Posted by Skip

So what's the current vote tally? Sally's dying, isn't she?

(is having trouble making any sense of the proceedings)

To which Sally responded:
#425.

Originally Posted by Sally

So far, yes, but you can still prevent it.

#429. Casts third vote on Glirdan.

Originally Posted by Skip

Gotta go to bed. Haven't got the focus now to get a real grip of what's been happening, but I understand Sally's got her back against the wall. I've had no real suspicion against her but I can see how some would find her behaviour creepy. Would be interesting to find out her role - she might well be a wolf but she would not be my first choice to vote for. Glirdan I've had a slight suspicion on since day one and although I've no clear picture of exactly what he's been up to tonight, at least he's not reassured me. So, in order to open up another alternative:

++Glirdan

General comments: The first part of the day, apart from his well-reasoned post at #274, Skip mostly just talks about the rules, while with both potential lynchees being wolves, it's hard to deduce all that much from the fact that he voted Glirdan over Sally. However, if in fact Skip is a wolf he'd have had to choose one or the other (or make a throwaway, which he'd earlier denounced) and he might have decided Sally was more valuable to the team. At that point, there were still several people left to vote, Izzy (#426) had said she would probably vote Glirdan, and Sally herself had more-or-less directly asked Skip to save her. Of course this last might just as easily be Sallywolf's attempt to implicate an innocent Skip.



Skip, Day 4.

#584

Just checking in briefly without having read anything in detail but Morsul, this is a very incriminating statement. A slip of the tongue perhaps, but one that could cost you your head.

Comments: ??? Seems to rest on an over-literal interpretation.


#621

Originally Posted by Skip

.
Yes, killing Greenie was a surprising decision (and I'll miss having her around). But what possible reason could the wolves have to believe she was the seer? From what I've gathered she was always perfectly ambiguous and vague about everyone, and tried her best to stay out of trouble. I was starting to suspect her as a wolf for these reasons. Could the wolves have felt that this was a reason to suspect her being the Seer, with the knowledge that she wasn't a wolf?

And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Morsul's odd though, wouldn't you say? Can't give this too much time but I will look into some of his statements now. There seems to be a pattern to his seemingly erratic behaviour, one that tempts me to cry... what is the word again ... oh yes wolf.

Comments: At this point Nogwolf, and the likelihood that Greenie had been killed for her suspicion of him, had been much talked about... yet Skip seems weirdly oblivious to this. If it wasn't for his quoting somebody-or-other, I'd think he hadn't read the thread.


#628
Post about Morsul. Raises some good points against him, but also continues that same strange accusation from #584. Think Shasta and Morsul might be the remaining wolves.


#635. Casts second vote on Shasta.

Originally Posted by Skip

Nogrod is starting to worry me too but I've not really kept up to date with the reading and just why he's suspected. Because Greenie the Seer's vote for him, is it not? It would be remarkable if we (though I can't claim any credit) could lynch a wolf three consecutive nights. Don't know if Nogrod is one but things are beginning to bad for him methinks. How do you behead a big grin anyway? Let's ask the The Queen Of Hearts shall we?

But I will not be the one to try to fit the noose around his neck or lack of. The most honest option for me is Shasta, who I've sort of suspected since early on. I could go for Morsul too but don't see that happening now.

++Shasta

*is off to sleep*

Comments: And Nogrod had only two votes at this point...

General Comments: Looks like he might have been trying to save Nogrod that Day, doesn't it?


Conclusions: Might be furry. Might also just be a very individualist new player who prefers to form his own judgements. However, it's enough that I'd consider voting him, anyway.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

General comments: Well, this is interesting. She talks about Glirdan in every post. Agrees it's "quite possible" he might be a wolf but makes no points of her own against him, other than that he might always have thrown Sally under the bus when it became clear she was doomed, and later that knowing his role would be useful. Raises the following points in his favour: Sally might have been double-bluffing to frame him; he started late and was still reading while posting, therefore probably unaware Sally was in trouble; he attacked her "eagerly" from the start (no he didn't); he suspected her before he himself was a serious candidate; if he were innocent it would be "a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching"; finally, he hadn't had a chance to defend himself.

Yes, she voted Glirdan– but it was only the second vote and she talks about him as a sort of not-all-that suspicious default candidate, while raising points against other players.

I admit I never strongly suspected Glirdan. The only thing I really had against him was Sally's accusations at the end of the Day which did look rather wolf-on-wolf. Along with hearing his defense, I would've loved to look at Glirdan more in depth, but Day 3 was my worst Day participation-wise. I didn't have any solid suspects at the time of voting, nor did I have time to look for any...I chose to vote Glirdan because I knew if he survived the Day, he would continue to bug me the following Days. Knowing his role would help enlighten us on other players, so I figured it was worth lynching him...even if he was innocent, his death would be more useful than the possible death of another innocent.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players.

Just to make it clear, when making my analysis posts, I am writing down my suspicions based solely on what I'm analysing. While someone may look incredibly guilty in voting for example, they could've done something else that makes them look extremely innocent. Which is why you might've interpreted it as flipping. My post with the list of players are my overall thoughts for the Day.

I'm sorry if you think I misrepresented you. Again, I am limited on time and am doing these analyses while at work (though my job requires little attention, I do have to stop periodically while in the middle of writing something), so I could of easily missed something, but that's how I read it. I realise I probably should've put you in the wishy-washy section (I was debating it at the time since you seemed to be somewhere in between the two)...when I say wishy-washy, I mean players who see both sides of the issue, but are vague or hesitant when it comes to stating their own opinion on the matter.

Onto other things...

When it comes to yesterDay's voting, I feel pretty certain that neither of the Shasta voters are wolves. It was fairly obvious from early on that Nogrod would most likely be lynched, so it would've been easier for the wolf to blend in with the large bandwagon than stick out. Someone mentioned that Nogrod would've been aware that he was in danger of getting lynched and instructed his mate to suspect him. Having been wolves with Nog several times, this sounds to me exactly like something he would do.

With Lottie not dead yet, I think it's most probable that the final wolf is seeking out the cursed. It makes sense...the odds are certainly not in his/her favour, and by turning a cursed, the chances for a wolf win would double. Someone (I think Lommy) suggested looking at Nienna's posts since it's less likely those who were suspected by her would kill her in fear of being hunted. I agree; now without any packmates left, the lone wolf should've been perfectly aware of the hunter and would try to avoid at all costs getting hunted since that would mean game over for the wolves.

Btw, good to see you posting, Mira. I actually texted Nienna telling her to remind you to vote toDay when she sees you, in case you weren't aware of the possible modfire.

[skip spence]

Is here, sort of, but also cooking, cleaning and doing laundry. Hope to be able to give this a bit more time later.

But briefly, voting for yourself like that Morsul is just... wrong.

And a vote on me. Have been half-expecting that for a while now and frankly I'm surprised it took so long. Will try to honour it by responding to some of Nerwen's points...

[Brinniel]

Okay, going through Nienna's posts was no help whatsoever. I didn't realise how little she posted yesterDay...

There's a lot of other things to analyse...yesterDay for one, and also Nogrod. I'm not going to do tons of analysing, but I can do a little bit. But right now I'm slightly hurting and could use a break from thinking about WW.

[Thinlómien]

My thoughts on the cases presented:

Nerwen vs Brinn
- what Nerwen posted actually made me more suspicious of Brinn, even though Nerwen herself reached the opposite conclusion
- however, looking at the vote tally makes it beggar belief that Brinn's a wolf (she's really not so evil that she could heartlessly vote her fellows Day after Day) and her latest post seems very innocent, so I'm leaning on considering her innocent

Nerwen vs Skip
- good points
- BUT I think Nerwen is trying to grasp at straws a bit - like Agan said, Greenie's comment on Skip should not be forgotten (even though we can't take it as proof for Skip's innocence)*. Not sure if that makes Nerwen guilty, desperate or careless.

Agan vs Nerwen
- again good points, very precise and concrete ones
- however, I again get the feeling of grasping at straws. Nerwen is very scary and I'd be tempted to vote her just to be safe, so I get the uncomfortable feeling Aganwolf is trying to abuse people's instinctive distrust of Nerwen. It's hard to explain, but the case is so good that it is suspicious. Not sure if that makes sense, but it doesn't have the innocent trademark of being unsure. But - since Legate missed my flip-flopping - I have to give credit Agan with making a good case whether it was with evil intentions or not.


*speaking of which, what do you Skip think? Do you think it probable Greenie dreamt of you?


edit: xed with Brinn

[Thinlómien]

Not worried about atm
Skip - likely seer dream, didn't vote Nog. (I know I said before I'm not sure what Agan said about possible Nog-instruction is likely, but I'm sort of leaning towards that, especially if the last wolf is a newbie like Skippy.)
Winty - can't just find myself suspecting him. Has bandwagoned on most wolves, but it might be just a newbie going with the flow - whatever his role. I should possibly pay more attention to him.
Morsul - leaning innocent with his self-vote (mostly the phrasing).
Legate - somehow how he explained his wishy-washyness made me feel better about him although I'm not sure if it was a good point. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the last wolf because I'm generally clueless about stuff, though. But still he's not the most urgent of my concerns at all.
Brinn - maybe too good track record to be guilty, especially combined with her last innocent-looking post. I have nagging suspicions against her but I'm starting to think that's just my instinctive suspicion of her and nothing worse this time.
Mira - not enough evidence to make me worried. Not judging her before I see more.

Worried about atm
Agan - would be such typical wolf-Agan to bring forwards points that make herself look worse in order to make herself look more innocent. To be honest the only wolf-vote being Nog on Day4 doesn't look good on her, nor does the pursuit of lynchable Inzil on the Days when Sally or Glirdy was in danger.
Nerwen - Agan brings some good points about her, and it is true she a) tends to throw fellows under the bus but might do it a little hesitantly and b) looks like she knows more than the rest of us.
Shasta - possibly the worst-seeming track record this far and I don't like him sort of slying under my radar all the time. (Lol just noticed the typo won't correct. )

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

*speaking of which, what do you Skip think? Do you think it probable Greenie dreamt of you?

I dunno, I'd like to think so. From an in-game perspective it's difficult to say. Won't go through Greenie's posts now looking for clues but the way I recall things she called me probably innocent or something to that effect. So did lots of other people. And I was hardly the only one Greenie called innocent... From a RL-perspective I think you or Agan are much better judges than me.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

...even if he was innocent, his death would be more useful than the possible death of another innocent.

That's some pretty cold reasoning, Brinn.

If you are still around Nerwen (what time is it in Oz now?) I'd like to know what you mean by "over-literal"?

Originally Posted by skip

Just checking in briefly without having read anything in detail but Morsul, this is a very incriminating statement. A slip of the tongue perhaps, but one that could cost you your head.

When I read this the first thing I thought of was: if he were an ordo and not a wolf, he'd not be insane for putting the wolves up for the slaughter, he'd be a hero and a trailblazer for picking out the enemies of the village. Isn't that merely a literal interpretation of a statement not intended to be anything but literal? Agree with Agan that it easily could be an honest mistake though.

Here's Morsul's response btw:

and if it does all I can say is we as a village had a good run figures We'd lynch an innocent eventually...

As for the rest, in the scenario that me and Nogrod were the remaining wolves, do you really think we would decide that I'd try to vote Shasta (on admittedly rather weak grounds) and by that trying to save Nog, although it was very unlikely this rescue attempt would succeed? After seemingly trying to defend Glirdan on the previous Day?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Comments: At this point Nogwolf, and the likelihood that Greenie had been killed for her suspicion of him, had been much talked about... yet Skip seems weirdly oblivious to this. If it wasn't for his quoting somebody-or-other, I'd think he hadn't read the thread.

Here you'd be right. Have had a rather busy week with a cold on top of that and I'm struggling to catch up just now.

In retrospect Nogrod did looked a likelier wolf than Shasta. Sally And Glirdan I'm still amazed we nailed so quickly and still don't really understand just how it happened. After a quick review I can see why Nogrod was lynched, though. At the time of voting however I was behind in the reading (still am, but slightly less so) and I'm just loath to jump on a bandwagon without good reason.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And really I'm getting slightly bothered about the fact that you keep saying Nog was my & Shasta's first wolf-vote. Or do you know for sure that Mira and Morsul are innocent?

But if one of them is a wolf, you or Shasta can't be, so it doesn't matter. I don't quite get what's the problem here. Obviously we can only analyse possible wolf-on-wolf votes on known wolves, and given that there's only one wolf remaining, there can't be an unknown wolf on unknown wolf vote. So what's the fuss?

Originally Posted by Agan

And what do you mean by unsure? I read her posts and wrote what impressions I got. Then I made my conclusion about her based on the said impressions. I'm not sure she's guilty, but I just fail to see why appearing unsure when making an analysis is a sign of innocence.

People tend to flip-flop in their analyses even if they are more inclined to see somebody as either guilty or innocent. Your analysis was pretty condemning all along.

Originally Posted by Agan

What points are you talking about? When I said it's more likely Nog's fellow didn't try to save him, I didn't consider it something that would somehow incriminate me. You mean I shouldn't say anything that doesn't look entirely good on me because if I do it means I'm a wolf, even if it was helpful to us?

No! I didn't say that you presenting a point that puts you in bad light makes you evil, only that it doesn't speak for your innocence either. You would do that as an innocent as well as a wolf. If I ended up sounding it means you're evil it's simply because I remember wolf-Agans bringing up points harmful to the wolves in previous games. But if I use sense, you would of course come up with points like that as an innocent too. So I guess what I mean is that as the instances when you've brought up such points that I remember are from when you're a wolf the fact that you're doing it now reminds me of Wolf-Agan but if I think with reason it doesn't incriminate you (although it doesn't exonerate you either). Was that long enough explanation?

Originally Posted by Agan

Glirdy and sally pretty much slipped under my radar all the time - which you should know they wouldn't have done if I had been their fellow.

Which is not a good defense because as a wolf you could've pretended they did.

And no need to get so jumpy. *raises eyebrows*

PS. And I don't want to start an innocent-Agan vs innocent-Lommy argument (since we have avoided it this far, I'm actually surprised ) nor a wolf-Agan vs innocent-Lommy argument started by the person first mentioned to get people think it's another innocent-on-innocent row and thus makes them both look innocent.


edit: xed with everything since Brinn's first
edit2: marked a quote

[Aganzir]

I underline questions that I'd like answered because that way they're easier to notice and more difficult to forget about.

**

DAY 1

Nerwen started day 1 with some banter with sally and suggested the motive behind Fea's vote should be discussed. Then she sort of nudged suspicion toward winty which I still find suspicious:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh* Now I suppose we have to decide whether this is innocent or guilty-looking. Would a wolfywolfy's* packmates have shown him the ropes on Night One, and told him not to do this? Or would they have left him in the dark in the hope that he'd look like a confused innocent? Or is he, in fact, innocent? You know, the usual.

It's just way too easy, even for a day 1 suspicion. It was a newbie's first post and Nerwen is suggesting it might be wolfish. She isn't really accusing him herself, rather just saying that we have to decide. So if winty was lynched and innocent she could have backed out beautifully.
When I questioned her about it (saying that older wolves usually tell cubs to be just as confused as they would without a pack guiding them), she sort of downplayed it by saying that wolf tactics tend to run in cycles. What does that comment actually mean and could you give some examples? Because I think some things that have been tested and found useful remain the same from game to game, one of them being that newbie wolves are encouraged to act like newbies. She also countered my accusation of her just looking for an easy lynch with:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And actually, that looks a lot more like an Aganwolf looking for an easy lynch. I remark on one of the few noteworthy things that had happened– and you call it suspicious? Why?

**

DAY 2

As a response to Brinn, she said she wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) either because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd (why were they odd?), but she also acknowledged she doesn't want to fall into the "one of them has to be a wolf" trap. We know Green was innocent and at least I'm feeling very good about Lommy and alright about Legate, but in any case, if Nerwen's a wolf, none of the Lottie-voters can be. So while saying that doesn't necessarily imply Nerwen is a wolf, it would be a very convenient thing for Nerwolf to drive forward.

In 254 Nerwen gathered quotes "expressing surprise or confusion where I just don't think it's warranted." She had one by sally (the rest were by Nienna, Lommy & me, all of whom (most likely) innocent):

Originally Posted by sally

what the heck happened at the end of the Day yesterDay? Don't get me wrong, yay dead cobbler, but a dead cobbler is not a dead wolf. Sally demands an....an expla.....explanat....some country.....

which she commented by asking what sally meant by "what the heck" and suggested there was a possible hint of wolfish chagrin there.
She added she didn't know how people could be surprised about Fea (who, I think, was acting in a rather Fea-like manner) being the cobbler, and that she was surprised anyone didn't see a connection between Boro & Lottie and figure out they were the Sheriffs.

She said she didn't know what to make of Zil's vote (for Mira, based on my suspicion of her), but thought his jumpiness was okay and Nog was taking a single remark totally out of context. She added Nog didn't look very good because of it but mitigated it, saying it was probably just a language problem.

Then she voted for sally whom she found the most suspicious at that point. She quoted a conversation between Shasta and sally about Morsul on day 1 and said sally looked like a wolf preparing to jump on an easy victim - or a packmate - and hastily going into damage control mode when her plan didn't work out. She ended her post with a back door:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I do mean to be back before DL, and will retract if Sally makes a sufficiently convincing case for her innocence, or if someone else starts looking worse.

**

DAY 3

Glirdan was suspected from the start of day 3, not the least because of sally's sudden turn on him. Nerwen marked sally's sudden change of tone in her last posts (when she urged Nienna to switch to Glirdan) and said

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't think she'd been planning to do that all along– but she might have thought, "hey, since I'm going down, why not stage a 'desperate' last-second attack that will make my packmate look good?"

which, I think, looks a tad like Nerwen knew too much.
She also added:

There's a question of whether Sally honestly believed she had a chance of changing the outcome at that point (right on DL).

What does this comment have to do with anything?

Morsul suggested sally was planning to do a false seer-reveal, and Nerwen commented:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Might well be. But again, if her cry of "Glirdan's a wolf!" was meant to be the start of her "reveal", I have to wonder why she left it so late.

Which, in my opinion, is another post where it looks like Nerwen knew too much. Like, most others speculated on whether Glirdan and sally could've been fellows, but Nerwen just somehow, I don't know, seems to take it for granted.

Later she added that we shouldn't concentrate only on Glirdan (this comment could go either way), and after that made a post about sally & Glirdan's interaction. She reached the conclusion that Glirdan was possibly a wolf, but added some points that were against the theory of him and sally being wolves together (#1: Glirdan, who started suspecting sally more the more votes she got, might not have kept track of voting; #2: they two were the most likely lynch-candidates which could've given them a reason to suspect/want to kill the other; #3: Glirdan tends to go with the flow and might have been influenced by many people suspecting sally). This could go either way too, I suppose. While the Nerwolf I remember is happy to throw her fellows under the bus, I recall she's often done it a bit hesitantly; not voted for them unless it was really necessary - and I suppose it wasn't certain Glirdan would be lynched. But innocent Nerwen might have said that as well.

Nerwen sort of accused skip of "trying one approach after another to defend Glirdy," and it's somewhat suspicious because it happened before Glirdan's role was revealed and before that, Nerwen herself had expressed some doubt about Glirdan being evil. In her next post she agreed with Nog about always finding Glirdan's playing style suspicious regardless of his role and said that was why she had been hesitating about him, but voted for Glirdan at the end of the post. It was the last vote (six minutes before deadline) and by then Glirdan already had seven votes (or six as Nerwen crossed with Nienna's vote).

**

DAY 4

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, Greenie's death does not look like a no-trace kill, as she'd attracted quite a bit of suspicion. So I think it's likely the wolves guessed her identity, and/or had a specific motive for killing her (framing someone, taking the heat off a wolf, double-bluffing, etc...)

I think that comment is awfully fishy. Framing whom? If the wolves guessed her identity, it was most likely because Nog was her top suspect. It looks like you were suggesting the wolves wanted to frame innocent Nog.
Heck I can't put my finger on the comment any better, I just think there's something very wrong there.

She moves on to say that we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf but because she suspected Nog, who had also started to creep Nerwen herself out the day before, Nerwen found him worth looking at (that's day 1 only though). People had already started to suspect Nog before that. She concluded that only one of Nog's posts looked furry but because of his overall day 1 tone, she wouldn't be surprised if he was indeed a wolf. That would be quite a convenient way to treat a fellow wolf who was possibly under the risk of lynching.
Then she goes through his day 2. Her conclusion, again, doesn't say anything:

This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

It was only Nog's first post on day 4 (in which he already behaved like a cornered wolf) that Nerwen said she seriously considered voting for Nog. In her analysis of Nog's day 3, she said he didn't look half as bad as Glirdan when she analysed him but that he was leaning furry. I'm not sure if Nog was really acting so much more suspiciously on day 3 than he had on the earlier two, or if Nerwolf, after his posting on day 4, decided it was better for her to start suspecting him. How ever it was, there's a change of tone in Nerwen's last analysis post.

She voted for Nog "Because I think we have to know his role," but added:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'll skim the thread now, and if anyone else really jumps out I may switch.

which is the same she did with sally. Granted, she didn't vote on day 1 and on day 3, when Glirdan was lynched, her vote was the last, but when I talked about Nerwolf who's hesitant when voting her fellows, it was comments like that that I meant.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Brinniel quotes one thing I said about Glirdan completely out of context, and then uses that to show I was against lynching him– ignoring everything else I said that Day.

Could you explain how it's out of context? Yeah it's not all you said about lynching Glirdy, but I think it sums it up well enough. And I agree with Brinn that you weren't exactly the most enthusiastic Glirdan-voter...

**

DAY 5

Nerwen suggests Nienna was killed just to eliminate a threat as she didn't go strongly after any living player, and adds that Morsul (who, she later agreed with Lottie, is most likely not furry but isn't doing himself any favours either; and after that said that he's more suspicious again because he's "grasping for the excuse Lottie's supplied" him when he said he would've voted himself every day if he had been a wolf with sally) needs looking at and so does Brinn, and Legate (whom she hasn't paid much attention). Brinn looked mostly innocent to her on days 1 & 2 but Nerwen found her day 3 attitude towards lynching Glirdan suspicious, as well as the way Brinn "took her comment out of context." And on day 4 she doesn't think Brinn is behaving like a wolf as a baddie would probably monitor herself better than Brinn has (ie pay more attention to how her comments come across). Her conclusion:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started.

which could go either way, again. If Nerwen's a wolf, she isn't pushing Brinn too hard (and therefore might avoid being suspected by her in return) but if she ever needs a lynching candidate, she can pick Brinn easily after that. The way she's behaved today, it looks almost like she's storing up potential lynchees for future use...

Then she analyses skip and finds him mostly suspicious, saying he might have been trying to save Nog (something I don't think a fellow would've done), and that he might be furry or just a very individualist new player, but it's enough for Nerwen to vote for him. Didn't it play a part that Greenie called him the most innocent-looking?

**

Huh if I was as motivated to write essays as WW analyses, I'd have a lot more credits... *thinks of a paper that should've been this long but which she never finished*

Anyway I don't think Nerwen looks good, and at least I would take the chances and lynch her. I should probably have a look at Nog's interaction with her (or Nog's interaction with everybody, for that matter), but having sat and written this for a couple of hours, I don't really feel like it.

I'm taking a break now, will be back later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

By the way, that makes me think strongly that even his other packmate was not so bold, so I'll be looking for the last Wolf probably mainly among the people who weren't very bold or downright voted somewhere "throwaway".

That's quite a jump, Legate. It depends on who this last wolf is.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That would partially apply to Aganzir. Now I wonder if I should be worried.

And then there was that fellow... now what was his name? Something to do with diplomacy... Ambassador? Envoy? Emissary? Something like that.

By the way, I hadn't read this bit when I called Skip "individualist":

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Skip would be another option. A very good newbie Wolf, with very little suspicion and all, slipping nicely unnoticed through the crowd... Of course the question would be if he is a Wolf or a very individualistic innocent who is very reasonable and refuses to join the general bandwaggons.

Just saying that, because there's been a bit of a thing this game about people using the same wording.

[Nerwen]

Well, at the moment, I think it's a choice of Brinn, Morsul or Skip, though I don't think any of them look terribly bad. But I don't have time to look at anyone else now. Brinn seems the least likely, Morsul I can't make head nor tail of, which leaves

++skip spence.

Seemingly, he did try to help at least two of the known wolves out, and maybe all three. That might mean something.

I'll try to get back later.

EDIT:X'd with Morsul.

[Mirandir]

I'm here, and apologize for my epic lack of posting these past few days. RL just hit the fan. Hopefully since I'll be with Nienna in a couple hours I'll actually be able to post and be around toDay.

In the meantime, I've been trying to figure out what Morsul is trying to accomplish by voting for himself. Yes, it makes sense if he is innocent to want to get rid of suspicion on him to focus on a wolf. However, if he is indeed innocent he's only hurting the village by encouraging us to kill him and give the wolves a leg up. If the cobbler wasn't already dead, he'd be my main suspect.

If he is a wolf, though, voting for himself to make it look like he has nothing to lose is something of an intelligent strategy. However, it casts a lot of suspicion on his actions in general.

So this pretty much boils down to I have no idea what to think. I'm leaning toward innocent and pigheaded, but tempted to vote him for sheer stupidity at the risk of being hypocritical.

[Morsul the Dark]

or there's a third plan I haven't unveiled

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Greenie was the Seer?!

I must have spent an hour earlier today putting all my points against her into one big case, and see where it gets me.

I don't know, but his reaction does seem a bit fake to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, naturally we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf at all. However, since she stated suspicion of Nogrod yesterDay, and indeed voted him, and since Nogrod was starting to creep me out towards the end of yesterDay, I think he's worth looking at. Besides, he's been under my radar most of the game.

Originally Posted by Nerwen after Nog Day 1 analysis

General Remarks: Well, while #128 is the only single post I'd call definitely furry-looking, from Nog's overall Day One posting I shouldn't be that *surprised* if he turns out a wolf. I won't put it stronger than that– later Days may give a different picture. Also, I haven't yet looked at what the known wolves said about him– as I recall, not much.

Originally Posted by Nerwen after Nog Day 2 analysis

Meh... Can't really tell either way– he's given so little to go on. No wonder he's been under the radar! This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

Originally Posted by Nerwen after Nog Day 3 analysis

General Comments: well, he doesn't come out of it looking nearly as bad as Glirdan did when I analysed him– but on the whole I'd say he's "leaning furry".

She starts off saying she doesn't think he looks furry, but wouldn't be surprised if he was. Treading middle ground so that she can go either way without looking like she flipflopped. I notice that as the Day continues and more players grow suspicious of Nogrod, her suspicion grows into "leaning furry." It looks pretty suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by skip

Insane for offering them up for the slaugher, eh? Yes, that may well be the case. A working theory of mine is that Shasta and Morsul are the remaining wolves. But if they are that seems like too bold a plan, especially if it's been made before hand. Hm...

Could this be an innocent newbie just trying to avoid the bandwagon, or a newbie wolf offering other options? I'm leaning towards the former because again, I really doubt a wolf wouldn't hide in the Nogrod bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Legate

Anyway, my main dilemma toDay is simply whether to join lynching Nogrod - and therefore getting part of the answers to the above - or to believe in the other of the possibilities and lynch one of the other suspects, in my case Inzil. However as I am not sure how much the other makes sense right now and considering that I have been slightly unsure about Inzil's guilt for a few reasons (see earlier toDay), it might as well be Nogrod. Even though I am wondering if his defense is not that of a genuine innocent.

Leaves both options open and plays it safe. It could indicate wolf, but at least his words seem more genuine. Legate's a bit of a question mark to me at the moment.