WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What do you mean? I don't get your comment.

I think the reference is to this:

#618.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent?
Or did you just betray something of your night talk? Are the wolves only desperate to find the cursed now?

Legate at #630 was talking talking about reasons why Greenie was killed, and the significance of Nogwolf's peculiar take on it. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

However, Legate is probably another one who needs looking at– I mean, I don't think anyone has paid him that much attention this game, which is odd in itself.

But I doubt I'm going to have time toDay.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think the reference is to this:

Yeah I know, I just didn't understand what he was saying... I thought that after talking a lot about how random something (don't remember exactly what and don't bother checking) was, he said that what I had said might not be true. And it didn't make sense.

[Thinlómien]

I'm around. Not much to say, really - not very surprised of the outcome of yesterDay's lynch (and I think it's sort of even now, Nogrod-seer busted me-wolf on Day1 last game so I don't feel very guilty of being an active part of getting him-wolf lynched based on a seer's points although the seer was not me ) or of the Night kill choice (I agree with those who think Nienna's death pointed to eliminating someone universally thought innocent).

Also, Agan said that the last wolf is now probably not much caring about who to kill because any ordo can be the cursed and getting rid of the gifteds is good (especially now after that the hunter's gone, there's only the unicorn whose death would be undesirable for the wolf). Somehow I have the feeling, though, that Lottie's going to keep us company for some time still...

Off to reply quotes from yesterDay and toDay. If I have time today, I'd love to have a look to Nog's interactions with people. However, I have to be at work in two hours and I have stuff to do before that, and my evening might be busy...

[Thinlómien]

YesterDay

I'm ignoring all Nog says. He definitely knew he's going down - the case was clear from the beginning of the Day, unlike with Sally looking at whose posts has been criticised - and given how Sally's toying with serious wolf-on-wolf suspicion backfired, I have hard time imagining Nog making the same mistake (ie trying to bluff or double-bluff by randomly calling his fellows either very guilty or very innocent). He's too smart for that. (Aargh now I really feel like looking at his posts after all and seeing whom he kept from overt spotlight to see who might've been his fellow. Grr. Must not fall for that.)

Originally Posted by Nog, but since this was universally discussed I'm quoting it

Someone - Lommy at least (with reservations) and I feel there was someone else as well - came over with an idea that Greenie might have dreamt of Agan and found her innocent?

No, no. Let me make it clear: I first thought Greenie might've dreamt of Agan when looking just at her Day1 posts, but then when I looked at all her posts, it didn't make any sense, so I scratched that theory. I definitely don't think Agan was seer-dreamt, Greenie wouldn't have flip-flopped on her that way if she had dreamt of her. To recapitulate: I think she first dreamt either of Mira and Boro (none of her claiming somebody innocent seemed dream-based, so her Night1 dream would've been somebody whose innocent-seemingness she couldn't reasonably have commented on while she was around, which only leaves Mira and Boro who didn't post anything but banter/"hi I'm here" before Greenie left) and then probably of Skip and then of Nog.

Legate seemed rather wishy-washy about voting a wolf... again. makes me raise my eyebrows.


ToDay

Originally Posted by Shasta

Bad - We lost Nienna, who most considered innocent.

Worse - We also lost our Hunter.

Worst - We also lost an innocent Inzil.

I didn't see any gifted vibes from Nienna, so I'm concluding that she was killed because so many thought her innocent (in fact, I can't remember anyone suspecting her for real).

It was pretty clear her prime suspect was Inzil, but I wonder if looking at who else she suspected will tell us anything.

Somehow, this looks rather fishy. What's bad about losing the hunter? The hunter's aim is to die. The bad thing here is that hunter chose wrong, not that we lost her. Also, even if you didn't get gifted vibes from Nienna, the wolf might have, unless you're him.

I would rather take a different view to what Nienna's death can reveal - probably not who considered her a threat in the lynch sense but rather who would've been afraid to kill her fearing she could be the hunter. For that, I would only look at Day4 posts and not draw any hasty conclusions - from what Shasta posted, I got the idea she was posting merely several vague suspects, and if a wolf looks at people's loads of vague suspicions and doesn't dare to kill them because s/he appears on the list just because the person in question might be the hunter and might be hunting him/her (and not any of the several other vague suspicions) that would really be quite paranoid of him/her.

Actually if somebody really wans to use their time with Nienna, it'd make probably more sense to see who she trusted, because if we assume the wolf was paranoid about not getting hunter-killed (and thus losing) last Night, then those people would be the ones who would've been feeling safe with killing her (especially if she trusted somebody others didn't so much, I'd raise my eyebrows).

Anyway, I'm quite divided about this Nienna issue - we could find clues in her posts but then again quite probably it's waste of time as long as we don't know how much the wolf was thinking of the hunter last Night, if at all.

I'm not sure I like Shasta's rather one-sided looking morsulysis. He seems awfully quick to come up with a posibly popular lynch candidate for toDay.

I don't like Morsul's martyr-show either, simply because as the only remaining wolf he would feel depressed already and could thus easily overreact to suspicion against him and lose faith in his chances. Although I wonder, a wolf giving up would probably have phrased it differently...?

Can somebody explain this Morsul-Sally thingy to me? Is it really so serious one of them would quit the game or do something about as drastic if they had to be packmates? Morsul voted Sally on early Day2 anyway, so if he was exasperated at being fellows with her after two Night-discussions, that would make sense. That's why I don't get how it proves his innocence...

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Lommy looks very innocent - unless the wolves planned that they would go after one another whenever there was a reason to, and the one who survived should ensure their victory. And if Lommy is part of such conspiracy, she will have to do the dishes for a month.

Trying to boss me around, eh? Well, anyway, I can leave the dishes for you for I'm not a part of such conspiracy - this might be seen as self-promoting, but I did vote Glirdy on Days 2 and 3 and Nog on Day4, which is something I'm not sure I'd have the guts (or idiocy/sense, depends which pow you take it) to do as their fellow wolf.

But still, I don't think that in this game we can exonerate anyone who's been voting wolves in 3-4 Days in a row. The suspicions against Sally, Glirdan and Nog were always quite clear from the beginning of the day (least so with Sally) that any wolf could've sensed the flow and jumped on the boat too. However, it might pay off to look at people who were hesitant to vote (whether they ended up voting a wolf or not) these three because I have hard time imagining a wolf who would happily join a bandwagon against a fellow three Days in a row - s/he would need to have quite a lot of self-confidence!


PS. Forgot to mention earlier, but to the one who sent me the anonymous message: although it was nothing serious, it's definitely not appreciated, be you dead or living or even not participating. Shh!


edit: xed with Nerwen, added a smiley

[Morsul the Dark]

Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.

secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way...

While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.

This, while utterly hilarious I'm afraid just sent you shooting up in my suspicions, Morsul. It sounds as if you're grasping for the excuse Lottie's supplied you.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way...

While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am around, however not sure how much time I will have. Not right now, at least, maybe later in the evening (that is, some six hours from now, or a bit later).

For now, in any case, at least here goes my favoured suspect Inzil, and I need to look at other people, even though I sort of wanted to give it a shot. Morsul has raised some controversy, as I see, though he seemed innocent to me before - or at least a "normal Morsul". This self-vote is slightly more puzzling, but then again, if I think about it more deeply, I could imagine an annoyed Morsul doing that. Nonetheless, it can be a last desperate attempt to save himself (or rather half-desperate half-resigned move, as it does not have a perspective, I believe, even if it was so and if it was succesful in making the village go "a Wolf wouldn't say that, let's leave him alone", eventually in a Day or two we'd return to him, I'm sure, but still I can imagine Morsul doing it). But since I cannot tell according to his behavior whether he is just innocent Morsul or maybe a more clever version of Morsul pretending to be innocent, I might as well look at his interactions with sally/Glirdan/Nogrod when I have time (which means not now). That's something that probably should be the key to us in general, as far as we can gather from their attitudes towards other people. We should bear in mind that the WWs, especially later (Nog?) when they saw they are rather doomed, might have possibly tried to disconnect themselves from their remaining packmate, however, there are still certainly things where they'd be more careful and e.g. avoid talking too much with their mates or something. Also the earlier we go (when they felt safe), I think the more we could find, although of course then again, back then they could not have had problems with interacting with their packmates in certain ways because there were just still many people and the WWs didn't think they'll be spotted.

Anyway - that's something that I am going to possibly try to do, but later, for now I will hang around for a while, but probably not have much time to read anything in detail, and then I will be off for several hours.

As for the death of Nienna, as far as I can see it seems most probable to me that she was killed as a person who was generally thought innocent. No other obvious motives (and seems nobody else noticed anything like that either).

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?

And last of all, I've been called wishy-washy on Wolves, come on, I have voted them in the end (or more or less), and I think a Wolf wouldn't make such a show out of being undecided. That is, speaking of that, also something I want to consider when looking for the WW connections - I think the WWs will be generally rather decided (if they e.g. decided to nail their comrade from the beginning), or with some "back door" open there, but not so openly (i.e. not like talking to oneself aloud for ten posts whether to vote this person or not, but sort of quietly remarking "...but what it" or leaving the door open, Nogrod actually has partially done something like that). I think for example reviewing Nogrod's behavior towards those who seemed to be getting obviously lynched (esp. Glirdan, since with Sally it was Wolf or Wolf) might give some clue to the identity of the last Wolf, i.e. maybe if there was somebody with the same/diametrally opposite behavior who at the same time was sort of careful and not interacting with Nogrod too much etc. - such a person would be a likely suspect for me. But, like I said, I don't have time to check it now.

EDIT: x-ed since Agan, and certainly thanks to Lommy for the list! So maybe I can actually look at something now at least generally...

[Thinlómien]

Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:

Everybody's votes thus far

Winty
Day1 Brinn
Day2 Sally
Day3 no vote
Day4 Nog

Lommy
Day1 Lottie
Day2 Glirdan
Day3 Glirdan
Day4 Nogrod

Morsul
Day1 Winty
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Shasta

Agan
Day1 Mira
Day2 Zil
Day3 Zil
Day4 Nog

Legate
Day1 Lottie
Day2 Sally
Day3 Zil
Day4 Nog

Skip
Day1 Fea
Day2 Glirdan
Day3 Shasta
Day4 Shasta

Shasta
Day1 Greenie
Day2 Morsul
Day3 Greenie
Day4 Nog

Brinn
Day1 Fea
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Nog

Nerwen
Day1 no vote
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdan
Day4 Nog

Mira
Day1 no vote
Day2 Winty
Day3 no vote
Day4 no vote


edit: xed with all

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Agan

By the way wilwa... If I counted correctly, Mira has failed to vote twice in a row.

Thanks for pointing it out, I hadn't noticed. I think she's going through some RL stuff with work and whatnot, so I'll give her today. If she doesn't vote today then she'll be modfired.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:
Brinn
Day1 Fea
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Nog

And I thought I was doing well Brinn might be the last wolf... 4 for 4... Not really enough of course but warrants a look.

[Thinlómien]

If Mira's a wolf, would there have been a kill last Night? And if she wins as a wolf, is it very fair? My answers are possibly not and not unless she starts to post more.

Brinn has creepily good voting record! Although voting Fea doesn't make it any more creepy since the wolves don't know the cobbler. And if you remove the Fea vote, you could call Nerwen and my voting records just as creepy...

I'm not sure I buy Agan's point about Nog telling his fellow to make himself look by suspecting him, but if we assume it's true, then Shasta and Agan herself look worse (the first wolf-on-wolf vote from both of them was against Nog) and Morsul (did w-o-w before but not against Nog).

PS. Does bringing this up make Agan look more innocent? No, because if that occured to her, she'd definitely say it even as a wolf. I know well enough that she posts all good points she has even if they work slightly against the wolves because it tends to make her look more innocent.

More thoughts on stuff later, now I have to go...


edit: xed with Moddess and Morsul

[Morsul the Dark]

Brinn: ++Fea

It's not unusual for her to vote out of thin air and disappear, and it doesn't say anything about her role. But for once, I'd like her to actually explain her vote. Voting that early without an explanation is a dangerous thing, and it can start bandwagons as we are already seeing. While it's certainly possible it's just an innocent Fea having fun, I could also very well see an evil Fea pulling it off thinking she can get away with such a vote with little scrutiny...she has before. And not only has she not explained her vote, but she has not made any sort of contribution. Only two posts, a vote and banter. Perhaps she is busy, but so am I. If you're going to make a vote, then explain it. Whether the reasoning is good or poor, there should always be at least some explanation. It doesn't take long to write a sentence or two.

This vote seems pretty good.

Brinn: For reasons stated in my post above:

++Sally

Bah, I feel like I should be bringing forth a competing candidate, but there actually really is no one else I suspect all that much. I've spent longer than I should on WW, and after all that then I haven't even begun to thoroughly examine any players thoroughly.

This makes me feel strange as if she hates voting her packmate... The day before she didn't want to bandwagon an innocent not too worried about doing it with a wolf... interesting.

Looking at the voting list, Mira's vote looks quite bad not only because of the nature of the vote that I mentioned yesterDay I didn't like, but the timing too (Sally was really racking up in votes by then). Actually, Shasta looks just as bad for the timing of his vote, but I can't remember his reasons behind the vote, so I should perhaps check that out later. In any case, they both warrant a reason for me to better look at them come toMorrow.

But I must be going now, so here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I hate making early votes and I still wish I could've actually heard what he may have to say before making this vote, but I won't be back toDay most likely.

His role could go either way, and knowing what it is would clear up some things. Even if he did turn out innocent, his death wouldn't exactly be a devastating blow to the village considering we are ahead in the game lynching a wolf and cobbler in two Days...and not to mention that his death could provide useful clues, whatever his role may be. If we don't lynch him toDay, we'll just be wondering the same things about him come toMorrow. So at this point, unless a more suspicious candidate comes forth, he seems the best choice for toDay.

This seems good... I feel I'm trying to see something not there... So Brinn is still in my eyes innocent looking one more vote to check out though.

Okay, I'm supposed to be doing schoolwork now, so in order to prevent distracting myself, I'm voting now. There's really no need for me to hold off anyway since I've already made my decision:

++Nogrod

So far we're on a streak lynching a cobbler and two wolves in three Days. No innocent has yet to be lynched. I'm hoping to keep it that way. Honestly, it would really surprise me if Nogrod does turn out innocent...there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt.

I think Brinn's votes are clean... She reasons them well with her other posts never does she make it seem wolf on wolf or anything... The Sally vote is the only one even slightly strange... but I think Brinn's good.

[Nerwen]

Brinniel, Day 4

#576
Wants to look at Glirwolf's posts, thinks other wolves may be found amongst those who were "hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon".


#600
Analyses Greenie's comments on Nogrod, agrees they may well point to his being a wolf. Is surprised by Greenie's death, as she found Greenie suspicious and would have thought the wolves would keep her alive for that reason.


#604
Analyses Glirdan's comments on other players.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

On Day 2, he started with putting Legate and Sally as suspicious. That makes Legate look better since I doubt he'd list two wolves there. He later lists Mira and winty as possible suspects. Not sure about Mira, but the way he comments on winty makes it seem like he's preparing himself to join a winty bandwagon if that were to happen on a later Day. He voted Shasta on Day 1...since it was a throwaway, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but I don't know how likely that actually is.

Comments: Nothing much. The conclusions she draws here are a bit on the thin side, though.


#606
Lists "those hesitant about a Glirdan lynch" (me, Zil, Skip and Aganzir), "those eager for one" (Morsul, Nienna and Lommy) and those who were just "wishy washy" (Legate and Nogrod). Legate, Agan, Nogrod and I look bad, Lommy and Nienna look good.

Comments: As I've said before, while Skip and Zil did defend Glirdan (Skip wasn't just "hesitant"!), her claim about me rests on a single out-of-context quote and is a fairly serious misrepresentation. (I haven't checked whether or not this applies to Agan as well.) And compare to
Brinn's own Day 3 posting!

Still, is this actually wolfish? I don't know... I think a Wolfiel might have been more aware of how she herself had come across that Day. I mean, wolves tend to monitor themselves more than innocents do. (Also, at least one of those she listed as "bad" (Nogrod) was actually a wolf.)


#645
Suspicion list:
winty, Aganzir, Legate, Morsul and Nienna are "innocentish". She has no idea about Zil, Mira, Shasta and Lommy. I am "possibly wolfish" and Nogrod "wolfish".

Comments: While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players. (Possibly I've missed a post or two in between, but I can't find it.)


#646
Casts 6th vote on Nogrod: "there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt."


General Comments: Doesn't look too bad, really. This all *could* be a wolf-on-wolf attack, but it would have to be a very well-played one indeed, even for her.

General remarks on Brinniel, based on all 4 Days:

I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started.

*shrugs*
I guess I'll have to leave it at "inconclusive", for now.

EDIT:X'd with Aganzir and Lommy; added comment.
EDIT2:Added heading.