![]() |
![]() |
Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page |
|
![]() |
#1 | ||||||||||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
I'm disappointed Inzy died because when Nog was revealed as a wolf, I came to the conclusion that it was very unlikely they were wolves together (the way Nog attacked Inzil because of his phrasing and the way Inzil reacted)... But ah well maybe it's better this way.
Today I want to have a look at Nerwen. What we have left is a wolf, the ranger, a sheriff, the unicorn - and 7 ordos, one of whom the cursed. Quote:
And Lottie is still alive. In addition to Boro (obviously enough special) and Greenie (for her Nog suspicion), the wolves have killed Izzy and Nienna, neither of whom anybody suspected... One possibility is that the wolves are really desperate to find the cursed and don't care much about whom they kill (either they get a gifted or a potential cursed), so they simply start with the ones that are suspected the least. I don't think Morsul is the last wolf. Yes there are points against him, but actually I think he looks pretty innocentish. And his self-vote... Of course it might be a bluff, but I have a hard time seeing a wolf do that, unless he has already given up without a fight. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
** As for yesterday... I think Lommy looks very innocent - unless the wolves planned that they would go after one another whenever there was a reason to, and the one who survived should ensure their victory. And if Lommy is part of such conspiracy, she will have to do the dishes for a month. ![]() Quote:
And yes, yesterday I was feeling pretty positive about the outcome of the lynch. Quote:
Quote:
Legate has been acting quite innocent thus far but I'm starting to get worried about him. Mainly because of the way he's been wavering about lynching the wolves... But then again there's sally's vote for him (albeit a throw-away). Really, he seems way too undecided to my liking and it's not like the Legate I remember. Quote:
![]() Quote:
![]() Quote:
Trust: Lottie Lommy Shasta. Nog's attack on him yesterday might be wolf-on-wolf but I don't know if even he would draw attention to a fellow like that. And Shasta has been reasonable and innocentish anyway.
__________________
He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
||||||||||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#2 | ||||
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Quote:
#618. Quote:
However, Legate is probably another one who needs looking at– I mean, I don't think anyone has paid him that much attention this game, which is odd in itself. But I doubt I'm going to have time toDay.
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
||||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#3 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Yeah I know, I just didn't understand what he was saying... I thought that after talking a lot about how random something (don't remember exactly what and don't bother checking) was, he said that what I had said might not be true. And it didn't make sense.
__________________
He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#4 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
I'm around. Not much to say, really - not very surprised of the outcome of yesterDay's lynch (and I think it's sort of even now, Nogrod-seer busted me-wolf on Day1 last game so I don't feel very guilty of being an active part of getting him-wolf lynched based on a seer's points although the seer was not me
![]() Also, Agan said that the last wolf is now probably not much caring about who to kill because any ordo can be the cursed and getting rid of the gifteds is good (especially now after that the hunter's gone, there's only the unicorn whose death would be undesirable for the wolf). Somehow I have the feeling, though, that Lottie's going to keep us company for some time still... ![]() Off to reply quotes from yesterDay and toDay. If I have time today, I'd love to have a look to Nog's interactions with people. However, I have to be at work in two hours and I have stuff to do before that, and my evening might be busy...
__________________
Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#5 | |||
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
YesterDay
I'm ignoring all Nog says. He definitely knew he's going down - the case was clear from the beginning of the Day, unlike with Sally looking at whose posts has been criticised - and given how Sally's toying with serious wolf-on-wolf suspicion backfired, I have hard time imagining Nog making the same mistake (ie trying to bluff or double-bluff by randomly calling his fellows either very guilty or very innocent). He's too smart for that. (Aargh now I really feel like looking at his posts after all and seeing whom he kept from overt spotlight to see who might've been his fellow. Grr. Must not fall for that.) Quote:
Legate seemed rather wishy-washy about voting a wolf... again. makes me raise my eyebrows. ToDay Quote:
I would rather take a different view to what Nienna's death can reveal - probably not who considered her a threat in the lynch sense but rather who would've been afraid to kill her fearing she could be the hunter. For that, I would only look at Day4 posts and not draw any hasty conclusions - from what Shasta posted, I got the idea she was posting merely several vague suspects, and if a wolf looks at people's loads of vague suspicions and doesn't dare to kill them because s/he appears on the list just because the person in question might be the hunter and might be hunting him/her (and not any of the several other vague suspicions) that would really be quite paranoid of him/her. Actually if somebody really wans to use their time with Nienna, it'd make probably more sense to see who she trusted, because if we assume the wolf was paranoid about not getting hunter-killed (and thus losing) last Night, then those people would be the ones who would've been feeling safe with killing her (especially if she trusted somebody others didn't so much, I'd raise my eyebrows). Anyway, I'm quite divided about this Nienna issue - we could find clues in her posts but then again quite probably it's waste of time as long as we don't know how much the wolf was thinking of the hunter last Night, if at all. I'm not sure I like Shasta's rather one-sided looking morsulysis. He seems awfully quick to come up with a posibly popular lynch candidate for toDay. I don't like Morsul's martyr-show either, simply because as the only remaining wolf he would feel depressed already and could thus easily overreact to suspicion against him and lose faith in his chances. Although I wonder, a wolf giving up would probably have phrased it differently...? Can somebody explain this Morsul-Sally thingy to me? Is it really so serious one of them would quit the game or do something about as drastic if they had to be packmates? Morsul voted Sally on early Day2 anyway, so if he was exasperated at being fellows with her after two Night-discussions, that would make sense. That's why I don't get how it proves his innocence... Quote:
![]() ![]() But still, I don't think that in this game we can exonerate anyone who's been voting wolves in 3-4 Days in a row. The suspicions against Sally, Glirdan and Nog were always quite clear from the beginning of the day (least so with Sally) that any wolf could've sensed the flow and jumped on the boat too. However, it might pay off to look at people who were hesitant to vote (whether they ended up voting a wolf or not) these three because I have hard time imagining a wolf who would happily join a bandwagon against a fellow three Days in a row - s/he would need to have quite a lot of self-confidence! PS. Forgot to mention earlier, but to the one who sent me the anonymous message: although it was nothing serious, it's definitely not appreciated, be you dead or living or even not participating. Shh! edit: xed with Nerwen, added a smiley
__________________
Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
|
|||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#6 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
![]() ![]() |
Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.
secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way... While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.
__________________
Morsul the Resurrected |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#7 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Quote:
![]()
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#8 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:
Everybody's votes thus far Winty Day1 Brinn Day2 Sally Day3 no vote Day4 Nog Lommy Day1 Lottie Day2 Glirdan Day3 Glirdan Day4 Nogrod Morsul Day1 Winty Day2 Sally Day3 Glirdy Day4 Shasta Agan Day1 Mira Day2 Zil Day3 Zil Day4 Nog Legate Day1 Lottie Day2 Sally Day3 Zil Day4 Nog Skip Day1 Fea Day2 Glirdan Day3 Shasta Day4 Shasta Shasta Day1 Greenie Day2 Morsul Day3 Greenie Day4 Nog Brinn Day1 Fea Day2 Sally Day3 Glirdy Day4 Nog Nerwen Day1 no vote Day2 Sally Day3 Glirdan Day4 Nog Mira Day1 no vote Day2 Winty Day3 no vote Day4 no vote edit: xed with all
__________________
Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#9 | |
Fluttering Enchantment
|
![]() Quote:
__________________
Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
|
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#10 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 3,448
![]() ![]() |
And I thought I was doing well Brinn might be the last wolf... 4 for 4... Not really enough of course but warrants a look.
__________________
Morsul the Resurrected |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#11 |
Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
If Mira's a wolf, would there have been a kill last Night? And if she wins as a wolf, is it very fair? My answers are possibly not and not unless she starts to post more.
Brinn has creepily good voting record! Although voting Fea doesn't make it any more creepy since the wolves don't know the cobbler. And if you remove the Fea vote, you could call Nerwen and my voting records just as creepy... I'm not sure I buy Agan's point about Nog telling his fellow to make himself look by suspecting him, but if we assume it's true, then Shasta and Agan herself look worse (the first wolf-on-wolf vote from both of them was against Nog) and Morsul (did w-o-w before but not against Nog). PS. Does bringing this up make Agan look more innocent? No, because if that occured to her, she'd definitely say it even as a wolf. I know well enough that she posts all good points she has even if they work slightly against the wolves because it tends to make her look more innocent. More thoughts on stuff later, now I have to go... edit: xed with Moddess and Morsul
__________________
Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#12 | |
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Brinniel, Day 4
#576 Wants to look at Glirwolf's posts, thinks other wolves may be found amongst those who were "hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon". #600 Analyses Greenie's comments on Nogrod, agrees they may well point to his being a wolf. Is surprised by Greenie's death, as she found Greenie suspicious and would have thought the wolves would keep her alive for that reason. #604 Analyses Glirdan's comments on other players. Quote:
#606 Lists "those hesitant about a Glirdan lynch" (me, Zil, Skip and Aganzir), "those eager for one" (Morsul, Nienna and Lommy) and those who were just "wishy washy" (Legate and Nogrod). Legate, Agan, Nogrod and I look bad, Lommy and Nienna look good. Comments: As I've said before, while Skip and Zil did defend Glirdan (Skip wasn't just "hesitant"!), her claim about me rests on a single out-of-context quote and is a fairly serious misrepresentation. (I haven't checked whether or not this applies to Agan as well.) And compare to Brinn's own Day 3 posting! Still, is this actually wolfish? I don't know... I think a Wolfiel might have been more aware of how she herself had come across that Day. I mean, wolves tend to monitor themselves more than innocents do. (Also, at least one of those she listed as "bad" (Nogrod) was actually a wolf.) #645 Suspicion list: winty, Aganzir, Legate, Morsul and Nienna are "innocentish". She has no idea about Zil, Mira, Shasta and Lommy. I am "possibly wolfish" and Nogrod "wolfish". Comments: While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players. (Possibly I've missed a post or two in between, but I can't find it.) #646 Casts 6th vote on Nogrod: "there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt." General Comments: Doesn't look too bad, really. This all *could* be a wolf-on-wolf attack, but it would have to be a very well-played one indeed, even for her. General remarks on Brinniel, based on all 4 Days: I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started. *shrugs* I guess I'll have to leave it at "inconclusive", for now. EDIT:X'd with Aganzir and Lommy; added comment. EDIT2:Added heading.
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 04-16-2010 at 06:17 AM. |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#13 |
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
On yesterday's votes
It's raining and I don't feel like walking anywhere, which means I'm going to skip the lecture (plus I would've had to leave already if I had wanted to be there on time). Which means I could try to get my post count above wilwa's.
![]() Morsul -> Shasta Agan -> Nog Lommy -> Nog (2) skip -> Shasta (2) Shasta -> Nog (3) Legate -> Nog (4) Inziladun -> Nog (5) Brinn -> Nog (6) Nogrod -> Shasta (3) ww -> Nog (7) Lottie -> Nog (8) Nerwen -> Nog (9) Didn't vote: Nienna & Mira. By the way wilwa... If I counted correctly, Mira has failed to vote twice in a row. To be honest I wouldn't mind if she was modfired because she's posted so little it would feel weird to lynch her at this point. So... everybody but three people voted for Nog. First, Morsul. By the time he voted, suspicions had already started to gather around Nog. However he didn't comment on them with a word but kept talking about other stuff and voted for Shasta in the end. Somehow I think that if he and Nog had been fellows, he would've felt compelled to say something about Nog. And being so proud of voting for two wolves, if he had known Nog's role wouldn't he have voted for him, too? I think yes. And I think Morsul looks quite innocent. Then, skippy. He gave Shasta another vote (and tied him with Nog although there were still lots of votes to come). His vote looks worse because it made Shasta a serious lynching candidate (like, if somebody wanted to save Nog, they would've voted for Shasta). In 621 he talked about Green's death but didn't say anything about the did Green dream of Nog scenario, either, and he thought Shasta and Morsul might be the last wolves. He had been suspecting Shasta before though, so it wasn't anything new. He expressed second thoughts about Nog only in his vote post (when Nog had two votes). Now, I assume that when the wolves killed Greenie, they thought she might be the seer. And I imagine Nog said to his fellows something along these lines: "If she's the seer, don't try to save me but make yourself look better because if you're caught, we're done." Because to me it just doesn't make sense that the last wolf would risk getting caught by trying to save Nog. And although the placing of skippy's vote is slightly evil (could be more of a timezone issue though), I don't think he's a wolf. Plus it's possible Green dreamed of him. And the last to vote for Shasta was Nog himself. Either it's wolf-on-wolf or Nog wanted to give us doubts about innocent Shasta. Personally I doubt he'd throw his fellow under the spotlight like that, but then again Nogwolf is usually ready to do most anything to look better himself (however when he voted there was little chance Shasta would be lynched, it was 6-3 for Nog). Shasta has looked pretty innocent though, and I'd rather take Nog's yesterday posts with a pinch of salt anyway. At least for me, this has narrowed the field to those who voted for Nog. Not exactly helpful, given that most people did that, but we have to start from somewhere... Now that we know three wolves, finding the fourth shouldn't be so difficult. The easiest thing to do would be to continue Lommy's massive summary with Nog's interactions with people, and I might do it later today if nobody else wants to undertake the task. However first I'd like to look into Nerwen's posts (but even before that I'm going to get some food & tea).
__________________
He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-16-2010 at 06:06 AM. Reason: xed since Nerwen |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
|
![]() |