WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Aganzir]

I'm disappointed Inzy died because when Nog was revealed as a wolf, I came to the conclusion that it was very unlikely they were wolves together (the way Nog attacked Inzil because of his phrasing and the way Inzil reacted)... But ah well maybe it's better this way.

Today I want to have a look at Nerwen.

What we have left is a wolf, the ranger, a sheriff, the unicorn - and 7 ordos, one of whom the cursed.

Originally Posted by Shasta

It was pretty clear her prime suspect was Inzil, but I wonder if looking at who else she suspected will tell us anything.

It should be done whether it will tell us something or not... But I'm afraid she was killed because of what you said; probably everybody considered her innocent. And the last wolf might have thought her death might help frame Inzil.

And Lottie is still alive. In addition to Boro (obviously enough special) and Greenie (for her Nog suspicion), the wolves have killed Izzy and Nienna, neither of whom anybody suspected... One possibility is that the wolves are really desperate to find the cursed and don't care much about whom they kill (either they get a gifted or a potential cursed), so they simply start with the ones that are suspected the least.

I don't think Morsul is the last wolf. Yes there are points against him, but actually I think he looks pretty innocentish. And his self-vote... Of course it might be a bluff, but I have a hard time seeing a wolf do that, unless he has already given up without a fight.

Originally Posted by Morsul

since Nienna suspected me I'll be under fire anyway.

I wouldn't have thought so. I think she was killed mostly for looking so innocent, not because of her suspicions.

Originally Posted by Brinn

If I'm correct, there is one wolf left among nine players with unknown roles.

Among ten players with unknown roles, actually (although for each of the innocents, it's technically nine players).

Originally Posted by Lottie on Morsul

If he was Sally's packmate, they'd seriously both vote Wilwa Day 1 for putting them through this.

While I agree Morsul probably isn't a wolf, I wouldn't use that as an explanation... After all we chose our roles ourselves. Oh yes Shasta said the same.

**

As for yesterday...

I think Lommy looks very innocent - unless the wolves planned that they would go after one another whenever there was a reason to, and the one who survived should ensure their victory. And if Lommy is part of such conspiracy, she will have to do the dishes for a month.

Originally Posted by Nog

And where's your effort Agan? Oh, the moral highground is such a slippery thing... Why don't you try and go find the wolves? Are you so happy with the presumed outcome that you can just lay back and enjoy?

I suppose this warrants an answer... My effort went to sleep with my brain. I've had a very busy week with little time to post, and I'd have to adopt a totally new playing style to be as productive as I'd like to be. I should have more time today (at least if I don't attend a lecture about the portrayal of LGBT in movies) though.
And yes, yesterday I was feeling pretty positive about the outcome of the lynch.

Originally Posted by skip

This is clearly written from the perspective of a wolf, without stating that it is a hypothetical situation. If I were a wolf I'd be crazy for offering them up for a slaughter would be a fair argument. Maybe it was just an honest mistake, or perhaps a fatal slip of the tongue?

I noticed that too but I'm more inclined to think it was an honest mistake. Morsul seems like the kind of person who doesn't pay so much attention to what he says than most of us.

Originally Posted by Legate

That's so random that I am actually beginning to consider whether what Aganzir said about Nogrod possibly slipping his Wolf thoughts might not be true after all.

What do you mean? I don't get your comment.

Legate has been acting quite innocent thus far but I'm starting to get worried about him. Mainly because of the way he's been wavering about lynching the wolves... But then again there's sally's vote for him (albeit a throw-away).
Really, he seems way too undecided to my liking and it's not like the Legate I remember.

Originally Posted by skip

How do you behead a big grin anyway? Let's ask the The Queen Of Hearts shall we?

We crush his teeth one by one.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I just can't see a wolf grouping two packmates as suspicious.

Says who?

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think there's something funny going on between him and Lommy, but I'm not sure what yet.

Most likely it was just Nogwolf trying to frame innocent Lommy and get us to have second thoughts about her.

Trust:
Lottie
Lommy
Shasta. Nog's attack on him yesterday might be wolf-on-wolf but I don't know if even he would draw attention to a fellow like that. And Shasta has been reasonable and innocentish anyway.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What do you mean? I don't get your comment.

I think the reference is to this:

#618.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent?
Or did you just betray something of your night talk? Are the wolves only desperate to find the cursed now?

Legate at #630 was talking talking about reasons why Greenie was killed, and the significance of Nogwolf's peculiar take on it. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

However, Legate is probably another one who needs looking at– I mean, I don't think anyone has paid him that much attention this game, which is odd in itself.

But I doubt I'm going to have time toDay.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think the reference is to this:

Yeah I know, I just didn't understand what he was saying... I thought that after talking a lot about how random something (don't remember exactly what and don't bother checking) was, he said that what I had said might not be true. And it didn't make sense.

[Thinlómien]

I'm around. Not much to say, really - not very surprised of the outcome of yesterDay's lynch (and I think it's sort of even now, Nogrod-seer busted me-wolf on Day1 last game so I don't feel very guilty of being an active part of getting him-wolf lynched based on a seer's points although the seer was not me ) or of the Night kill choice (I agree with those who think Nienna's death pointed to eliminating someone universally thought innocent).

Also, Agan said that the last wolf is now probably not much caring about who to kill because any ordo can be the cursed and getting rid of the gifteds is good (especially now after that the hunter's gone, there's only the unicorn whose death would be undesirable for the wolf). Somehow I have the feeling, though, that Lottie's going to keep us company for some time still...

Off to reply quotes from yesterDay and toDay. If I have time today, I'd love to have a look to Nog's interactions with people. However, I have to be at work in two hours and I have stuff to do before that, and my evening might be busy...

[Thinlómien]

YesterDay

I'm ignoring all Nog says. He definitely knew he's going down - the case was clear from the beginning of the Day, unlike with Sally looking at whose posts has been criticised - and given how Sally's toying with serious wolf-on-wolf suspicion backfired, I have hard time imagining Nog making the same mistake (ie trying to bluff or double-bluff by randomly calling his fellows either very guilty or very innocent). He's too smart for that. (Aargh now I really feel like looking at his posts after all and seeing whom he kept from overt spotlight to see who might've been his fellow. Grr. Must not fall for that.)

Originally Posted by Nog, but since this was universally discussed I'm quoting it

Someone - Lommy at least (with reservations) and I feel there was someone else as well - came over with an idea that Greenie might have dreamt of Agan and found her innocent?

No, no. Let me make it clear: I first thought Greenie might've dreamt of Agan when looking just at her Day1 posts, but then when I looked at all her posts, it didn't make any sense, so I scratched that theory. I definitely don't think Agan was seer-dreamt, Greenie wouldn't have flip-flopped on her that way if she had dreamt of her. To recapitulate: I think she first dreamt either of Mira and Boro (none of her claiming somebody innocent seemed dream-based, so her Night1 dream would've been somebody whose innocent-seemingness she couldn't reasonably have commented on while she was around, which only leaves Mira and Boro who didn't post anything but banter/"hi I'm here" before Greenie left) and then probably of Skip and then of Nog.

Legate seemed rather wishy-washy about voting a wolf... again. makes me raise my eyebrows.


ToDay

Originally Posted by Shasta

Bad - We lost Nienna, who most considered innocent.

Worse - We also lost our Hunter.

Worst - We also lost an innocent Inzil.

I didn't see any gifted vibes from Nienna, so I'm concluding that she was killed because so many thought her innocent (in fact, I can't remember anyone suspecting her for real).

It was pretty clear her prime suspect was Inzil, but I wonder if looking at who else she suspected will tell us anything.

Somehow, this looks rather fishy. What's bad about losing the hunter? The hunter's aim is to die. The bad thing here is that hunter chose wrong, not that we lost her. Also, even if you didn't get gifted vibes from Nienna, the wolf might have, unless you're him.

I would rather take a different view to what Nienna's death can reveal - probably not who considered her a threat in the lynch sense but rather who would've been afraid to kill her fearing she could be the hunter. For that, I would only look at Day4 posts and not draw any hasty conclusions - from what Shasta posted, I got the idea she was posting merely several vague suspects, and if a wolf looks at people's loads of vague suspicions and doesn't dare to kill them because s/he appears on the list just because the person in question might be the hunter and might be hunting him/her (and not any of the several other vague suspicions) that would really be quite paranoid of him/her.

Actually if somebody really wans to use their time with Nienna, it'd make probably more sense to see who she trusted, because if we assume the wolf was paranoid about not getting hunter-killed (and thus losing) last Night, then those people would be the ones who would've been feeling safe with killing her (especially if she trusted somebody others didn't so much, I'd raise my eyebrows).

Anyway, I'm quite divided about this Nienna issue - we could find clues in her posts but then again quite probably it's waste of time as long as we don't know how much the wolf was thinking of the hunter last Night, if at all.

I'm not sure I like Shasta's rather one-sided looking morsulysis. He seems awfully quick to come up with a posibly popular lynch candidate for toDay.

I don't like Morsul's martyr-show either, simply because as the only remaining wolf he would feel depressed already and could thus easily overreact to suspicion against him and lose faith in his chances. Although I wonder, a wolf giving up would probably have phrased it differently...?

Can somebody explain this Morsul-Sally thingy to me? Is it really so serious one of them would quit the game or do something about as drastic if they had to be packmates? Morsul voted Sally on early Day2 anyway, so if he was exasperated at being fellows with her after two Night-discussions, that would make sense. That's why I don't get how it proves his innocence...

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Lommy looks very innocent - unless the wolves planned that they would go after one another whenever there was a reason to, and the one who survived should ensure their victory. And if Lommy is part of such conspiracy, she will have to do the dishes for a month.

Trying to boss me around, eh? Well, anyway, I can leave the dishes for you for I'm not a part of such conspiracy - this might be seen as self-promoting, but I did vote Glirdy on Days 2 and 3 and Nog on Day4, which is something I'm not sure I'd have the guts (or idiocy/sense, depends which pow you take it) to do as their fellow wolf.

But still, I don't think that in this game we can exonerate anyone who's been voting wolves in 3-4 Days in a row. The suspicions against Sally, Glirdan and Nog were always quite clear from the beginning of the day (least so with Sally) that any wolf could've sensed the flow and jumped on the boat too. However, it might pay off to look at people who were hesitant to vote (whether they ended up voting a wolf or not) these three because I have hard time imagining a wolf who would happily join a bandwagon against a fellow three Days in a row - s/he would need to have quite a lot of self-confidence!


PS. Forgot to mention earlier, but to the one who sent me the anonymous message: although it was nothing serious, it's definitely not appreciated, be you dead or living or even not participating. Shh!


edit: xed with Nerwen, added a smiley

[Morsul the Dark]

Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.

secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way...

While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.

This, while utterly hilarious I'm afraid just sent you shooting up in my suspicions, Morsul. It sounds as if you're grasping for the excuse Lottie's supplied you.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way...

While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.

[Thinlómien]

Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:

Everybody's votes thus far

Winty
Day1 Brinn
Day2 Sally
Day3 no vote
Day4 Nog

Lommy
Day1 Lottie
Day2 Glirdan
Day3 Glirdan
Day4 Nogrod

Morsul
Day1 Winty
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Shasta

Agan
Day1 Mira
Day2 Zil
Day3 Zil
Day4 Nog

Legate
Day1 Lottie
Day2 Sally
Day3 Zil
Day4 Nog

Skip
Day1 Fea
Day2 Glirdan
Day3 Shasta
Day4 Shasta

Shasta
Day1 Greenie
Day2 Morsul
Day3 Greenie
Day4 Nog

Brinn
Day1 Fea
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Nog

Nerwen
Day1 no vote
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdan
Day4 Nog

Mira
Day1 no vote
Day2 Winty
Day3 no vote
Day4 no vote


edit: xed with all

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Agan

By the way wilwa... If I counted correctly, Mira has failed to vote twice in a row.

Thanks for pointing it out, I hadn't noticed. I think she's going through some RL stuff with work and whatnot, so I'll give her today. If she doesn't vote today then she'll be modfired.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:
Brinn
Day1 Fea
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Nog

And I thought I was doing well Brinn might be the last wolf... 4 for 4... Not really enough of course but warrants a look.

[Thinlómien]

If Mira's a wolf, would there have been a kill last Night? And if she wins as a wolf, is it very fair? My answers are possibly not and not unless she starts to post more.

Brinn has creepily good voting record! Although voting Fea doesn't make it any more creepy since the wolves don't know the cobbler. And if you remove the Fea vote, you could call Nerwen and my voting records just as creepy...

I'm not sure I buy Agan's point about Nog telling his fellow to make himself look by suspecting him, but if we assume it's true, then Shasta and Agan herself look worse (the first wolf-on-wolf vote from both of them was against Nog) and Morsul (did w-o-w before but not against Nog).

PS. Does bringing this up make Agan look more innocent? No, because if that occured to her, she'd definitely say it even as a wolf. I know well enough that she posts all good points she has even if they work slightly against the wolves because it tends to make her look more innocent.

More thoughts on stuff later, now I have to go...


edit: xed with Moddess and Morsul

[Nerwen]

Brinniel, Day 4

#576
Wants to look at Glirwolf's posts, thinks other wolves may be found amongst those who were "hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon".


#600
Analyses Greenie's comments on Nogrod, agrees they may well point to his being a wolf. Is surprised by Greenie's death, as she found Greenie suspicious and would have thought the wolves would keep her alive for that reason.


#604
Analyses Glirdan's comments on other players.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

On Day 2, he started with putting Legate and Sally as suspicious. That makes Legate look better since I doubt he'd list two wolves there. He later lists Mira and winty as possible suspects. Not sure about Mira, but the way he comments on winty makes it seem like he's preparing himself to join a winty bandwagon if that were to happen on a later Day. He voted Shasta on Day 1...since it was a throwaway, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but I don't know how likely that actually is.

Comments: Nothing much. The conclusions she draws here are a bit on the thin side, though.


#606
Lists "those hesitant about a Glirdan lynch" (me, Zil, Skip and Aganzir), "those eager for one" (Morsul, Nienna and Lommy) and those who were just "wishy washy" (Legate and Nogrod). Legate, Agan, Nogrod and I look bad, Lommy and Nienna look good.

Comments: As I've said before, while Skip and Zil did defend Glirdan (Skip wasn't just "hesitant"!), her claim about me rests on a single out-of-context quote and is a fairly serious misrepresentation. (I haven't checked whether or not this applies to Agan as well.) And compare to
Brinn's own Day 3 posting!

Still, is this actually wolfish? I don't know... I think a Wolfiel might have been more aware of how she herself had come across that Day. I mean, wolves tend to monitor themselves more than innocents do. (Also, at least one of those she listed as "bad" (Nogrod) was actually a wolf.)


#645
Suspicion list:
winty, Aganzir, Legate, Morsul and Nienna are "innocentish". She has no idea about Zil, Mira, Shasta and Lommy. I am "possibly wolfish" and Nogrod "wolfish".

Comments: While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players. (Possibly I've missed a post or two in between, but I can't find it.)


#646
Casts 6th vote on Nogrod: "there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt."


General Comments: Doesn't look too bad, really. This all *could* be a wolf-on-wolf attack, but it would have to be a very well-played one indeed, even for her.

General remarks on Brinniel, based on all 4 Days:

I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started.

*shrugs*
I guess I'll have to leave it at "inconclusive", for now.

EDIT:X'd with Aganzir and Lommy; added comment.
EDIT2:Added heading.

[Aganzir]

It's raining and I don't feel like walking anywhere, which means I'm going to skip the lecture (plus I would've had to leave already if I had wanted to be there on time). Which means I could try to get my post count above wilwa's.

Morsul -> Shasta
Agan -> Nog
Lommy -> Nog (2)
skip -> Shasta (2)
Shasta -> Nog (3)
Legate -> Nog (4)
Inziladun -> Nog (5)
Brinn -> Nog (6)
Nogrod -> Shasta (3)
ww -> Nog (7)
Lottie -> Nog (8)
Nerwen -> Nog (9)

Didn't vote: Nienna & Mira.

By the way wilwa... If I counted correctly, Mira has failed to vote twice in a row.
To be honest I wouldn't mind if she was modfired because she's posted so little it would feel weird to lynch her at this point.

So... everybody but three people voted for Nog.

First, Morsul. By the time he voted, suspicions had already started to gather around Nog. However he didn't comment on them with a word but kept talking about other stuff and voted for Shasta in the end. Somehow I think that if he and Nog had been fellows, he would've felt compelled to say something about Nog. And being so proud of voting for two wolves, if he had known Nog's role wouldn't he have voted for him, too? I think yes. And I think Morsul looks quite innocent.

Then, skippy. He gave Shasta another vote (and tied him with Nog although there were still lots of votes to come). His vote looks worse because it made Shasta a serious lynching candidate (like, if somebody wanted to save Nog, they would've voted for Shasta). In 621 he talked about Green's death but didn't say anything about the did Green dream of Nog scenario, either, and he thought Shasta and Morsul might be the last wolves. He had been suspecting Shasta before though, so it wasn't anything new. He expressed second thoughts about Nog only in his vote post (when Nog had two votes).
Now, I assume that when the wolves killed Greenie, they thought she might be the seer. And I imagine Nog said to his fellows something along these lines: "If she's the seer, don't try to save me but make yourself look better because if you're caught, we're done." Because to me it just doesn't make sense that the last wolf would risk getting caught by trying to save Nog. And although the placing of skippy's vote is slightly evil (could be more of a timezone issue though), I don't think he's a wolf. Plus it's possible Green dreamed of him.

And the last to vote for Shasta was Nog himself. Either it's wolf-on-wolf or Nog wanted to give us doubts about innocent Shasta. Personally I doubt he'd throw his fellow under the spotlight like that, but then again Nogwolf is usually ready to do most anything to look better himself (however when he voted there was little chance Shasta would be lynched, it was 6-3 for Nog).
Shasta has looked pretty innocent though, and I'd rather take Nog's yesterday posts with a pinch of salt anyway.

At least for me, this has narrowed the field to those who voted for Nog. Not exactly helpful, given that most people did that, but we have to start from somewhere...

Now that we know three wolves, finding the fourth shouldn't be so difficult. The easiest thing to do would be to continue Lommy's massive summary with Nog's interactions with people, and I might do it later today if nobody else wants to undertake the task. However first I'd like to look into Nerwen's posts (but even before that I'm going to get some food & tea).