WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Macalaure]

I have no reason to doubt Lottie's reveal. If she was a wolf, then the fact that she revealed right away points toward it being a planned night plot, and not born out of sincere fear of being lynched. (Although she did have to vote early, so a certain fear is understandable.) She was second in line yesterday, but it is not uncommon at all that when a wolf is lynched, the second in line is let off the hook, at least for a day or two. To the wolves, there would have been every reason to be optimistic about Lottie's survival today, at the very least enough to wait and see how the day goes, so this plot is highly improbable.

Apart from that, her tone just doesn't sound like it's a false reveal. It's pretty much embedded in between several posts of analysis, and without the bolding part, you might even easily overlook the post. A wolf would have made more noise.

There are possible scenarios under which a Lottie-wolf would be plausible, but we will get there soon enough. Let her have her dream and then we'll see. It's not like there aren't enough wolves left.

Don't confuse the ranger now, folks. If Lottie is a wolf, the wolves have one night in which they needn't worry about him, if she is the seer, he will enable her to her dream. If that's not worth the risk, then I don't know.


A lot of comments and ideas I wrote down while reading:

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'd bet that there are at least 2 wolves in her wagon.

Since Inzil is dead, two out of Brinn, Morsul, and Sally are wolves. Possible, but quite a bold statement.

The one thing that makes me shy away from suspecting Nienna and Shasta too much, is that a) her votes yesterDay are sketchy, but not conclusively evil, and b) if they wanted to save Mnemo, why did they go for Inzil and not me? Both only really makes evil sense if Lottie and I are wolves, too, the latter of which I know is not the case and the former of which I highly doubt.

I had forgotten about Mnemo's "Roa and Nog are both innocent". Makes Nog look a bit worse.

Brinn's posts toDay make sense. I'm less suspicious of her now.

Boro makes so much sense, it's gotta hurt. I like his case against Wilwa.

Originally Posted by Sally

Your opinion's got a pretty wide range there doesn't it, Mac?

Umm, yes? That's what I stated. That's what's been confusing me.

Sally's analysis of Lottie has me baffled. She suspects her very strongly, but then wants to save her til tomorrow. The conclusion could be lip service, and wolf-Sally is just fishing for support while trying to avoid scorn, or she's trying to discredit Lottie's dream in advance. In any case, why would an innocent make such a huge post about someone who's lynching is not urgent? Why not just state your distrust briefly with a few points and move on?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mac, do you see a pattern: almost anyone who votes you or suspects you is suspicious to you? You should know better...

Haven't paid attention to that. I believe I'm usually quite objective about people who disagree with me. It's the people who agree with me that I fall for. Anyway, hasn't anything to do with that. My thoughts are already muddled enough right now.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And the Ranger thing isn't guaranteed, what if the Ranger protected Lottie last Night, or we lynch the Ranger today by accident?

I'd say it's very unlikely the ranger protected Lottie last night. We can't lynch the ranger by accident unless we lynch someone who isn't available at the deadline. The ranger will reveal and the wolves have no choice but to kill him, since he will still protect Lottie.

Wilwa and Sally are sounding all the alarms at the moment. Problem: if I throw in Nogrod, my next best suspect, this is the list of people who have been doubting Lottie most, and there is no way all three wolves would go that way. One single dream just isn't that dangerous.

Originally Posted by Brinn

The wolves don't need to create this whole bandwagon to get her lynched; sometimes all they need to do is give a gentle nudge and the village will take the bait.

Sometimes they don't even need to do that.

Secret role = modified wolf? Five wolves in a village of 20 with 2 innocent dropouts? Nonsense. *shakes head*

One tip for Lottie. It's not always the best idea to pick your best suspect to dream of, especially since Bes didn't have a whole lot of interaction with other villagers. A villager that's involved in the discussion is more valuable, since his/her role will shine a light on other people's roles, too - and in both cases, guilt and innocence. A guilty Bes (just keeping him as an example) is a wolf down, which is good, but an innocent Bes doesn't give us that much, since we can't deduce much from it.
(Oh noes! He's trying to dissuade her from Bes. Bes and he must be wolves! )

A lot of early votes toDay. Few of them to my liking.

edit: crossed with a few, and I have to correct myself: Boro does not make that much sense. He suspects me! Bad Boro!