WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Sally's analysis of Lottie has me baffled. She suspects her very strongly, but then wants to save her til tomorrow. The conclusion could be lip service, and wolf-Sally is just fishing for support while trying to avoid scorn, or she's trying to discredit Lottie's dream in advance. In any case, why would an innocent make such a huge post about someone who's lynching is not urgent? Why not just state your distrust briefly with a few points and move on?

Because I started my analysis before I saw her reveal post, so I just included her reveal post in my analysis. And the only reason I'm content to save her until toMorrow is because if she is telling the truth it'd be mighty foolish to lynch her.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm agreeing with about 3/4 of this. Surprisingly, while I think Lottie looks guiltier than sin, Boro looks far too eager to lynch the innocent me and Eomer is more than happy to help him. I'd bet my lunch (a tasty sandwich) that one of them is a wolf. And if nothing else I know we would learn something from Shasta's death, as so much of him concerns me and I'd like to see the rest of the method behind his madness.

I'll grant you that, because I imagined this entirely fantasy scenario that was not real at all. Ok, ok, I jumped the gun...a bit. However, you should not put words in my mouth, like me being eager to lynch you. I gave you a fair and balanced re-evaluation.

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today. Not only for her bad vote, but completely shaky reasons on it ("Boro makes me uneasy...so for that I'm going to tie him with Mnemo who I grant is really really strange but isn't that suspicious" ), and shaky suspicions on today too.

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me, or you...I'm not going to be your knight in shining armor.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Because I started my analysis before I saw her reveal post, so I just included her reveal post in my analysis. And the only reason I'm content to save her until toMorrow is because if she is telling the truth it'd be mighty foolish to lynch her.

Ahh now that makes sense, because I thought wow you did all that effort to try and discredit just to reach the conclusion of "crap she revealed...well doubt it, but gotta let her have a dream." It looked way over the top darling, I did not see the time-stamps though and now that I've checked, that massive post came 2-minutes after a prior one...ya I don't think you're that fast of a typer.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'll grant you that, because I imagined this entirely fantasy scenario that was not real at all. Ok, ok, I jumped the gun...a bit. However, you should not put words in my mouth, like me being eager to lynch you. I gave you a fair and balanced re-evaluation.

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today. Not only for her bad vote, but completely shaky reasons on it ("Boro makes me uneasy...so for that I'm going to tie him with Mnemo who I grant is really really strange but isn't that suspicious" ), and shaky suspicions on today too.

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me, or you...I'm not going to be your knight in shining armor.



Ahh now that makes sense, because I thought wow you did all that effort to try and discredit just to reach the conclusion of "crap she revealed...well doubt it, but gotta let her have a dream." It looked way over the top darling, I did not see the time-stamps though and now that I've checked, that massive post came 2-minutes after a prior one...ya I don't think you're that fast of a typer.

Not quite, no. And all is forgiven, precious. However, I still need to analyze you just to be on the safe side.

Here's my problem. I simply don't have time to write up an analysis post toDay but I need to analyze a bunch of people. So here in a bit I'm going to put up a list of how I feel on everyone, and if you have a specific question I'll try to answer it, but unfortunately I don't have enough time to shoot through everyone I want to.

*dashes off*

Back hopefully soon and with a good post.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today.

You have my sword.

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You have my sword.

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

Thanks. It's my own fault, really, as I fell asleep and didn't say anything so it looked like I'd done it all post-reveal, but I wanted to make sure you guys knew what had really gone on. We can't really afford to lynch an innocent or a gifted toDay so I thought I'd steer you away from the wrong direction.

Now, to analysis. Well, sparknotes, but still.

[Boromir88]

Back and should be here til DL, or at least the normal DL. So, til 4, don't know if Legate's going to extend it or not...?

And I have to say I have no idea what I'm seeing, because I could have sworn I saw Nerwen vote for herself, which is why I acted so shocked by it. Wow...so let me just change this:

and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me,

to..

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nienna, Lottie are before me

And let your own imagination wonder why I'm seeing stuff that doesn't exist

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You have my sword.

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

I would prefer an axe or a stick of dynamite, so I can take a sample of ice and study how much glacial melt has been going on. But, a sword will do. Who says we can't multi-task on this expedicetion

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, the next person who makes an ice pun gets my vote. Seriously.


People, it's just rude to make such jests so close to deadline. I don't appreciate your flippant remarks and overall disregard for the game, especially when I'm trying my best to keep up with actual posts and then have silly ones thrown in my face. I'm getting sick of it.

In short, stop with the expedition/cold weather humor. It's not nice.

And now after that little emotional avalanche I need to chill for a moment.

[Brinniel]

Okay, while I don't like Bes's vote at all, I think it looks more like a newbie move than a necessarily evil one.

Boromir seems so sensible, I'm actually kind of scared he's actually a wolf. If he is, he's fooling me big time.

I won't vote Nogrod toDay since it's his special day and I'm not mean like Sally. I don't have a reason why I'd want to vote him anyway.

A Nienna lynch still looks too easy, so I won't support one for toDay.

Shasta has been itching up my suspicion list. It's not so much the votes, but some other comments. Like a couple remarks he made about me (both yesterDay and toDay). It's the way he suggested that some things I said look suspicious...like he was throwing it out in the open and waiting to see if anyone will take the bait (for example the 'slip,' and when others didn't he quickly backtracked). I also agree with whoever said that his response to Mnemo's role is a bit suspicious. I'm always wary of those who react like "oh, I guess I was wrong...oops" in the same way I'm always wary of those who are all like "yay for the ranger/hunter" whenever a gifted successfully does their job in the Night.

Eomer is also one I'm worried about. The timing of his vote could easily be wolf-on-wolf and I wouldn't put it past him to do that. His cool and relaxed manner also make me uneasy...almost like he doesn't care too much about which way the votes will swing. There's something about his behaviour that's just very sneaky.

I'd like to look more at Sally since I'm feeling rather iffy about her and her behaviour these past Days. Unfortunately, I don't really have time since I should be working on my school project now. I'm not eager to lynch her now since I'd prefer to look back at her posts first, but if it came between her and Nienna, I'd rather see Sally go.

EDIT: X-ed with a gazillion posts

[A Little Green]

Am I the only one who finds Sally's jump on Wilwa rather opportunistic? It looks like she noticed Wilwa is getting some votes and decided to go after her because of that. It's not that an ordo wouldn't want to save herself; it's that an ordo wouldn't try to make it look like she suspected the one she attempts to get lynched instead of her.

I probably won't have time to make another post besides this crappy one before DL (we're three players + the mod with two computers), and I'm a bit at a loss - rather like Nerwen, I have too many suspects right now. Sally is looking worse than she did, I'm unsure about Wilwa, and Eomer looks eerily like a wolf trying to push for the easy lynches (Sally & Nienna). I'm thinking about voting Eomer, Shasta, Pitch, or Sally. I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.

I'm now letting Nog post, will be back to vote and hopefully to post something else as well. Can't promise anything though.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Am I the only one who finds Sally's jump on Wilwa rather opportunistic? It looks like she noticed Wilwa is getting some votes and decided to go after her because of that. It's not that an ordo wouldn't want to save herself; it's that an ordo wouldn't try to make it look like she suspected the one she attempts to get lynched instead of her.

I probably won't have time to make another post besides this crappy one before DL (we're three players + the mod with two computers), and I'm a bit at a loss - rather like Nerwen, I have too many suspects right now. Sally is looking worse than she did, I'm unsure about Wilwa, and Eomer looks eerily like a wolf trying to push for the easy lynches (Sally & Nienna). I'm thinking about voting Eomer, Shasta, Pitch, or Sally. I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.

I'm now letting Nog post, will be back to vote and hopefully to post something else as well. Can't promise anything though.

Ahem. Did I say I'd go for Wilwa no matter what? No, I said if she was the best option I'd vote for her. Do your reading, little green one.

Originally Posted by lil old me

....I'm not exactly happy with Wilwa in general, so while she does make a very good point about Nienna I don't trust her. (I quoted this post because....well, I can. No, really though, I don't think she and Nienna would be wolves together in this situation. I know Wilwa's sneaky but I don't think she'd do this to a packmate without darn good reason.)

On the other hand, she's not going to be here for the rest of the Day so it's possible she could be a secret role (or another gifted, though that's unlikely). However, I wouldn't feel entirely bad about lynching her as I think she's looking very off. (Again, sorry I couldn't explain more. I wish I had time!)

So to sparknotes my sparknotes I'd say yes to lynching Wilwa, but only if she's the best option available. I'm going to see who else looks bad to me in a second.

Although thanks for bringing this to my attention; I clearly left out part of my sentence in the second paragraph. The reason I mention her being a possible gifted and being gone is so that, if she is, we remember she won't be around to defend herself. After all, one must be considerate even in Werewolf.

Anyway, back to the lynching board. I might have another look at Shasta.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.

I'm eery of Eomer too, because of the reasons you've mentioned, it just seems like he's too concentrated on the easiest choices.

Here's my opinion though, you shouldn't vote for someone out of a little eery feeling, or just simple paranioa about getting played. Trust me, it is constantly running through my head right now that Mac has me right where he wants me, but that eery feeling isn't going to make me vote for someone who overall my instincts says is innocent, and has points of evidence to support it.

And here's another problem, there are so many suspicious looking people, we aren't agreeing on who looks the most suspicious. So, it looks like since someone like Eomer, who looks innocent, but when he doesn't have the same main suspect we do, it looks like he's got a sly and evil intention. However, the fact could be he honestly does believe sally is the most suspicious.

We should try to reach some sort of accord, because if all the innocents spread their votes around, than it makes the wolves pretty much able to pick who they want (assuming they haven't voted yet, but who knows?)

I've made my intentions clear, and the only reason I don't cast my vote now is I want to withold it in case there's any sort of wolf funny business towarsd the end. Any further analysis I do on wilwa is going to be biased, if you think she's not a good choice, convince me otherwise.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinn

I'm not trying to make people look like they're assuming one way or the other, but I did notice earlier in the Day that most players seemed to have Nienna at the top of their suspicion list, which is an indication of how toDay's voting might sway. And I'm concerned people will be too quick to jump on the most obviously suspicious person since more often than not they turn out innocent. I get the feeling that Nienna may be a mislead innocent, though I can't say I'm entirely confident about that since she has as a wolf managed to get away with some very suspicious stuff in the past. I don't care to see her lynched toDay, but would rather like to keep an eye on her.

You go deep and far and make it laborious to defend Nienna; looking at the reservations you seem to carefully put in every other place as if to not openly or actually defend her...

You "don't care to see her lynched toDay", but still you make awful lot about it trying to sway us from lynching her...

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDay

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'd bet that there are at least 2 wolves in her wagon.

(meaning Lottie-wagon)

To me that looks like a desperate try to sway the people from looking otherwise. I mean really, from the three Lottie-voters left she's ready to bet there are "at least" two wolves there? Hasty or evil?

And anyway, Mac seems to be speaking a lot of sense lately (I found myself nodding to his posts with reactions like "exactly", "just so", "that's what I was thinking"... so sense... )

Originally Posted by Sally

We can't really afford to lynch an innocent or a gifted toDay so I thought I'd steer you away from the wrong direction.

So you know the direction - and are an innocent at the same time?

And as bad as it might sound, yes we can afford lynching an innocent with sixteen players of whom only three are wolves (13-3). Let me put it the other way: toDay and toMorrow we can try things... after a few Days we can't afford mistakes. So we are not actualöly in the do or die -situation right now...

The vote by Bes looks really weird and I'm wondering how long should we give him the benefit of "newbie-doubt".

As Greenie said, we're sharing things here and so excuse my brevity (some will no doubt be happy about me not babbling for pages). Back soonish.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by me

It's the people who agree with me that I fall for.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I found myself nodding to his posts with reactions like "exactly", "just so", "that's what I was thinking"...

What the...? You don't really expect it to be that easy, do you?

About Brinn's defense of Nienna: I'm not sure whether a wolf would try to defend another very strongly nowadays. It leaves a trail back to you, and if you're unlucky, it'll end with two lynched wolves.

Possible Wilwa-voters are Boro, me, Sally, Nienna? That might be enough.

[Thinlómien]

I don't really have the time to reread stuff I just read and comment on it and since there wasn't really anything THAT important, I think the easiest way to arrange my feelings is this:

THE REMAINING WOLVES ARE NOT AMONG
Lommy - obviously.
Greenie - just seems really innocent at this point, very genuine and independent-thinking and smart... if she's fooled me, congrats!
Boro - he just seems like his normal ordo self. Even the bad track record fits... (just joking)
Lottie - I think she's telling the truth. Boro had very good points about this.
Pitch - I don't know why, but I'm quite convinced he's an ordo. It's partly the stuff between him and Mnemo, and partly the simple fact he just doesn't give me any bad vibes.
Nerwen - see above. Although, I feel more strongly about her innocence, but she's fooled me quite brilliantly before.
Bes - his Lottie-vote made me raise my eyebrows a bit, but I think it's simply his newbieishness. His argumentation is faulty but sounds innocent.
Morsul - just seems very innocent although self-voting isn't exactly very helpful unless you're a wolf.

THE REMAINING WOLVES ARE AMONG
Eomer - he's a tricky one for sure. I agree with Greenie that his vote record far from proves his innocence (and I think he's exactly the kind of wolf to do even more shameless wolf-on-wolf stuff). But on the other hand, his new, very blunt manner is very nice and quite innocent-seeming to me. Quite tough.
Sally - I'm agreeing with whoever it was who said she's a sort of obvious target, but then again, no one is an obvious target without a reason. Half of her posts make me scream "GUILTY!" and half are quite ok. It's difficult (again).
Nienna - she really seems very bad to me, and I can't still see why voting me instead of Lottie makes her innocent (I think I explained why it doesn't). I'm only slightly afraid I'm biased because she's suspecting me so aggressively that it doesn't seem innocent (from my perspective).
Mac - he's difficult. Because, I would like to trust him and he makes a lot of sense, but his sort of jumpiness and grumpiness makes me wonder. I think he's also a quite probable wolf-on-wolf voter: he would be able to see when Mnemo's a lost case and use it to his advantage.
Shasta - just seems really bad, his tone is constantly very off to me. Possibly my main suspect. (He made things for himself a lot worse by reappearing because I had sort of half-forgotten about him before but then he came back and posted in this very wolvishly defensive manner...)
Brinn - I don't get why people generally suspect her so little. The few posts she's made toDay seem really false in tone to me, and while she was not trying to save Mnemo, she was definitely not for killing her either. She's been very nice to me all game and somehow I get the feeling that if she was innocent she would've suspected me by now...
Wilwa - I confess I haven't paid her much attention myself, but others have brought up good points against her. If she's guilty, she's quite a good actress but could probably learn a bit more about plotting (the Boro-vote thingy would've been pretty clumsy from a wolf.)
Nogrod - I don't really suspect him at all at the moment, but I can so well see him fooling me that I'm keeping an eye on him...

I could vote anybody except Nog from the latter cathegory toDay, but my preference would be Shasta or Nienna (or possibly Brinn or Wilwa).

[Thinlómien]

I didn't notice anything bad about Sally's "jump" on Wilwa, but her overall happiness to get anybody but herself to the block is sort of eyebrow-raising. Like, it seems that it doesn't matter to her who gets lynched if it's not herself.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I didn't notice anything bad about Sally's "jump" on Wilwa, but her overall happiness to get anybody but herself to the block is sort of eyebrow-raising. Like, it seems that it doesn't matter to her who gets lynched if it's not herself.

Well, if you were in sally's position right now, would you want to be lynched?

(And no offense taken to the bad track record comment, for all the aggressiveness and noise I let out, it mostly turns out the end result wasn't nearly as good as the ride. I'm like the demented guy on the street, that people can't help but hear, but would prefer if I was stuck in my own little corner)

Edit: crossed with many

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Here's my opinion though, you shouldn't vote for someone out of a little eery feeling, or just simple paranioa about getting played. Trust me, it is constantly running through my head right now that Mac has me right where he wants me, but that eery feeling isn't going to make me vote for someone who overall my instincts says is innocent, and has points of evidence to support it.

The thing is, apart from the actually more-than-little eery feeling about him being a wolf pushing for easy lynches I'm uneasy about Eomer's (I constantly misspell him as Emoer) earlier votes. Yes, on Days 1 and 2 he voted for Mnemo, but in both cases it could very well have been wolf-on-wolf. The guy just stinks of wolf to me, is all.

I found myself agreeing with Lommy a lot - her opinion on Wilwa especially was quite exactly like mine. I know it's dangerous to feel good about people because you agree with them, but I do feel better about Lommy now. Nienna, on the other hand, is confusing me.

So, half an hour (a bit less, actually) till deadline, who to vote? I posted my favourite candidates in my previous post, but for the sake of healthy repetition: I'd like to lynch Emoer (see! Again!), Sally, Shasta, or Pitch. I won't object to Wilwa though I think we have better candidates. What about you others?

[Pitchwife]

Reasons for Zil being killed? Well, it's somewhat puzzling. For some reasons, he always seems to attract at least some suspicion, whatever his role, so you might suppose he'd be exactly the type of person the wolves would want to keep around for a while. Unless they hoped he might be Gifted under his supposed suspiciousness?
He was part of yesterDay's Lottie-wagon, but since he was Mnemo's prime 'suspect' after myself, it would have seemed unlikely he voted to save Mnemo (if he'd survived, I mean), so it wouldn't have been that easy for the wolves to get him lynched, if they'd wanted to.
There's also the possibility of a set-up, as you (Boro) mentioned.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, and will be back with a better post, but for now, two things.

1. Re - Mac: Clarification - it seemed like you said I voted specifically to save Mnemo Day 1 and not you, which is incorrect - I didn't want to see either of you executed.

2. Re - everyone who thinks my Day 2 vote was suspicious: Query - since when is it suspicious to vote someone you're suspicious of? I feel a bit better about Nerwen after her vote for Nienna, but it could very well be a wolf-on-wolf vote. I won't be comfortable about either one of them until a role is known.

[Macalaure]

Deadline is getting closer and the thread is getting quieter. I guess considering that a lot of the votes are already in, that's not so surprising. It's a bit dissatisfying anyway...

So let's just have a look at them.

Morsul -> Morsul (wonderful...)
Lottie -> Bes (that one came out of nowhere)
(is it going to be standard in this game that the first two votes every day are forgettable? )
Nerwen -> Nienna (sure, with little time to make up your mind, you go for the most obvious suspect)
Wilwa -> Nienna(2) (sensible vote for a wolf under pressure. Then again, if we find Nienna innocent tomorrow, she'll be in a very tough spot)
Eomer -> Sally (I can understand it, but if the sensible votes are split between Sally and Wilwa, it will end up being Nienna. Of course, Eomer suspected Nienna, too, so he won't mind much)
Bes -> Lottie (aww, come on... )

[Pitchwife]

Going with the hypothesis of a wolf among the Lottie-voters:
Brinn - I said earlier I found her vote the most innocent, but her semi-defense of Nienna toDay makes me think again (not that I've quite made up my mind about Nienna herself). Yeah, she said she wouldn't do that as a wolf, but wouldn't a wolf say exactly that? Also, her vote was the next after the first for Mnemo.
Morsul - haven't suspected him up to now. His self-vote looks rather innocent; I suppose a wolf would have some idea whom he wanted to die if he had to vote early.
sally - honestly, I hardly ever know what to make of her. Her reaction to Lottie's reveal troubles me, though.

À propos, I'm tempted to vote Bes for his vote against our only chance of a Seer in this game, which if not furry is still silly. It just might be crass newbieness, I don't know - leave him be till tomorrow? If Lottie dreams him toNight, we'll be wiser.

Mr Agreeable being Mr Undecided...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

À propos, I'm tempted to vote Bes for his vote against our only chance of a Seer in this game, which if not furry is still silly. It just might be crass newbieness, I don't know - leave him be till tomorrow? If Lottie dreams him toNight, we'll be wiser.

This kind of makes me not suspect Bes as much. It looks like Pitchwolf was trying to hint that I should dream about Bes, when my dreaming Bes wouldn't really have offered much to work with, other than his own role. Hmm...anyway,

++Pitchie