WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

When will it be the right Day for that?

Anyway, as I said, I'm not against letting her live and dream. I was just voicing my suspicion on her and around her.

I noticed you've completely not responded to the rest of the post, but chose only to point out one of the few assumptions I'm making about the reveal.

I was mostly referring to sally, the reason I threw you in there because you came right after (and I crossed with wilwa who of course expressed doubts about it all ). As I said though, there is a difference between stating doubt about someone's reveal and going through great lengths to try to discredit it based on shoddy reasons.

If someone says I'm the secret role, this is what it is, and these are the details, I can still understand doubting it, but to make an exaggerated effort to try to discredit the person is not only taking it too far, but just useless. The way I see it, we have another weapon that's being offered and we'd be idiots to not take the chance.

Doub it all you want, it makes no difference to me, but if someone says "I can get a dream tonight, don't kill me," I'm going to listen. This might be a terrible example to use, but if I was in Lottie's shoes based on the previous day and I said it (while disclosing specific details), I'm sure I'd have my doubters, but I will bet my apartment building no one would go through such a large extent to discredit me.

Two? For a moment I thought it was my turn to show my ignorance... But then I checked it...

What are you up to Boro?

Nothing sinister, had a Roa-moment it appears. I could have sworn Day 1 there were people talking about 2 secret roles. Well now that changes my sally-analysis don't it.

[Pitchwife]

Back and reading.

[Nerwen]

Well, then, I can't leave this any later– for once it's hard to decide not because no-one looks really suspicious but because so many people do.

++Nienna

Voting record and general feeling of not-rightness. Sorry, but I'm too tired to put that any better.

Good night and good luck.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I will vote in about 30-40 minutes. I'll probably be back before deadline but I'm not certain so I'm just making sure I get a vote.

I'd rather not vote Nienna, because of the aforementioned slight on her honour. But she is still one of my top 4.

Shasta hasn't really been around. Laying low, eh?

Wilwa and Sally have done little to calm my suspicions of them, so likely one of them.

[A Little Green]

I'm here and caught up, and for once I have so much stuff to say I don't know where to start! I'll probably formulate some ambitiously huge list or something. Beware! *dashes off*

[satansaloser2005]

Here to catch up, but won't be able to say too much alas as mentioned. *dashes*

[wilwarin538]

So I did yet another quick skim through of yesterDay and I think I'm going to go with Nienna today, her vote Day 1 was for Inzil, which could be seen as an attempt to protect Mnemo, when she was actually suspicious of Lommy (but she said she didn't want her vote to be a throwaway). Day 2 she did vote Lommy, and I see it either as a throw-away (which is weird cause she tried to avoid that the Day before) or I see it as an attempt to protect Mnemo, without looking like she was trying to protect Mnemo (it's a bit of a stretch, but not impossible). Either way it doesn't look good to me. I'm not positive about her, but she's the one I now feel strongest about. Since I have to go to school and then work, I need to vote now, I will not be back:

++Nienna

Good luck!


x'ed with Brinn

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So I did yet another quick skim through of yesterDay and I think I'm going to go with Nienna today, her vote Day 1 was for Inzil, which could be seen as an attempt to protect Mnemo, when she was actually suspicious of Lommy (but she said she didn't want her vote to be a throwaway). Day 2 she did vote Lommy, and I see it either as a throw-away (which is weird cause she tried to avoid that the Day before) or I see it as an attempt to protect Mnemo, without looking like she was trying to protect Mnemo (it's a bit of a stretch, but not impossible). Either way it doesn't look good to me. I'm not positive about her, but she's the one I now feel strongest about. Since I have to go to school and then work, I need to vote now, I will not be back:

++Nienna

Good luck!


x'ed with Brinn

She's got a point here, but I'm not exactly happy with Wilwa in general, so while she does make a very good point about Nienna I don't trust her. (I quoted this post because....well, I can. No, really though, I don't think she and Nienna would be wolves together in this situation. I know Wilwa's sneaky but I don't think she'd do this to a packmate without darn good reason.)


On the other hand, she's not going to be here for the rest of the Day so it's possible she could be a secret role (or another gifted, though that's unlikely). However, I wouldn't feel entirely bad about lynching her as I think she's looking very off. (Again, sorry I couldn't explain more. I wish I had time!)

So to sparknotes my sparknotes I'd say yes to lynching Wilwa, but only if she's the best option available. I'm going to see who else looks bad to me in a second.

[Boromir88]

Got a few more people to go as far as all interactions with Mnemo, gah, wish I could have completed this sooner, because I'm really not understanding these votes people are casting on eachother. Plus having to reformulate my sally-lysis slowed me down. I'll put hers up now, because I feel bad about that type of mistake. I told you I had a little more spunk today, and sometimes I get carried away with myself starting to imagine things in my head that just aren't there.

Basically I spotted sally's pun reference about Finding (M)nemo, thought that was a cobbler-signal to a wolf. They have this strange interaction and then sally tries to distance herself at the end because she's a special cobbler who can be more useful than just random confusion.

However, since I was imagining this glorified cobbler role, her distancing from Mnemo I think makes her look better. The fact that she stepped back and questioned Mnemo's (and now since I can safely assume there is no glorified cobbler) motives makes sally look better. I still think she's suspicious, but can't vote based on wanting to have some fun with someone she knows personally. Although, I will say I do not like the manner in which you try to discredit Lottie, but that's a separate matter.

wilwa and Shasta look far worse. You may be backing off from me wilwa, but your suspicions of me making you uneasy just looks sinister. Plus your last post where you tell Nog a nice catch, I'm imagining a touch of wishing that I will wind up lynched before you do. Heed this, you want to tango with me, let's go, but I warn you I'm terrible at the tango, so if I happen to go before you, I will make sure you leave with at least broken ankles. Yes, that is a threat and a dare.

Come on, too many people look suspicious to you Nerwen? You could have at least picked one of them, instead of yourself!

Edit: crossed with Brinn and wilwa

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

++SALLY

See my post #436, which Sally didn't really answer. I think she was very slippery in explaining how she didn't mind Mnemo dying - you only didn't mind when Mnemo had reached 5 votes. Until then you hadn't mentioned Mnemo and tried to get others lynched instead.

Nienna is also a good choice for the noose.

Maybe see you later.

[Bes]

As usual, I don't have much time today. I don't agree with the notion that Lottie's reveal makes sense, since as has been mentioned and re-mentioned, her being lynched today before she made that post was hardly likely. If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

I need to make a vote today, so at the risk of looking suspicious my vote goes for Lottie. I'd ask if lynching her could prevent the Ranger from potentially being lost to a false seer, which is my hope, but by the time I will be able to read the answer the night will have begun.

++Lottie

Probably crossed with a few people again, I know I crossed with Eomer for certain (e-mail updates, whoo!)

[Pitchwife]

Wow, a gifted reveal again. These Days, hardly a game would be complete without one or two, it seems. I must say I expected some more glamorous secret role, but that's a matter of taste, not an argument.
I think I can understand Lottie's reveal. YesterDay's bandwagon came rather late in the Day, she couldn't be sure it wouldn't happen again, and not knowing for sure whether she would be able to come back later toDay, she didn't want to take the risk of losing her chance to dream. Especially as it's her first time as a Gifted, she'd be anxious to do it right.
Anyway, I also think we can rule out the possibility that she's wolvish. Supposing yesterDay's Lottie-wagon was fueled by one or more wolves trying to save Mnemo, as seems likely, does anybody really think they would have put up another packmate as the alternative candidate?
So, let's give Lottie her chance, I think it'll do us good.
(I guess I'm hardly the first to say any of this, but nevermind. And for once, I'm letting it stand without any qualifiers and on-the-other-hands; it'll take some practice, but maybe I can make that a habit.)

[Pitchwife]

Following what I've just said, Bes's vote right now looks more than suspicious. I mean, even if you doubt her reveal was well-reasoned, there's that other argument against her being a wolf. And who would want to get a potential Seer out of the way before they can have a dream?
I also don't get this:

Originally Posted by Bes

If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

OK, the Ranger could, so to speak, 'waste' a protection on her toNight while the wolves kill somebody else, but why would that prevent the Ranger from protecting a hypothetical 'real seer' if such comes out later? Not mentioning that Ranger can't defend anybody against a lynch, only Night-kills.
Or do you mean her reveal could be an attempt to make the Ranger reveal as well, so the wolves can kill them? I don't see how - if the Ranger has any sense, they'll know to stay hidden. This looks totally fabricated.

[Boromir88]

Mac

Day 1-
#27 Mnemo does a wonderful job at a Form impression and hating Day 1s
#57 Mnemo ignored the reasonable debate of uselessness
#112 Mnemo seems innocent
#139 wants to avoid voting Mnemo
#161 prefers Inzil over Mnemo, and does vote Inzil.
Day 2-
#190 Mnemo has vague reasons for voting Inzil
#217 several good points have been made against Mnemo
#248 suspects Mnemo and asks Nog if his # of suspects is enough for him
#257 Mac's analysis on Mnemo, if Nog's guilty Mnemo would look suspicious.
#260 lists Mnemo is suspicious
#313 Mnemo's defending of Nog is suspicious
#386 Mnemo sounds like an ok choice
#390 votes Mnemo (4/7) and puts her in the lead by 2
#411 Mnemo's role would reveal more than Lottie's

Of Mnemo voters, Mac looks more like wolf-on-wolf than the others. The placement of his vote would be brilliant too. With Mnemo being under suspicion from Day 1, I think a wolf pointing suspicion towards her on Day 2 is a likely scenario, that's not just some cracked conspiracy theory. Also, notice that while he does consistently point towards Mnemo being suspicious he tries to nudge the suspicion more towards Nogrod. It's not "If Mnemo is guilty than there's a chance Nog is," it's "If Nog is guilty, this looks bad for Mnemo." That could just be because Nog honestly was his primary suspect, which I could understand seeing how Nog's case about the number of people Mac was suspecting was faulty.

I'm considerably less confident about Mac today, but not going to vote on him for that type of weak speculation. And if he is a wolf, it is pristine and stunning wolf-play, which Mac is fully capable of doing, but can he go the distance?

Nog
Day 1-
#158 doesn't find Mnemo suspicious, but he has been unclear about her since the latter part of the day.
Day 2-
#207 doesn't like Mnemo's vote and the whole coin-flip
#233 repeats reasons from #207
#356 Mnemo has made 2 odd votes now
#372 repeats reasons from #356
#405 agrees with Mac that Mnemo's wierdness looks more evil than Lotties
#413 votes Mnemo (6/7)
-Then in another post, agrees with Mac that Mnemo's death would reveal more

It's good to see Nog repeating himself..., but in a seriousness the vote the vote placement could be another wolf-on-wolf, but on my own feelings Nog looks better than Mac now. Yes he repeats his reasons against Mnemo a few times (is that a good sign? Not sure) but I like the details he uses plus bringing some new stuff to the table on Mnemo like in posts 207 and 356.

We've clearly disagreed about Lottie, but Nog tends to be more of the conspiracy theorist, and I detect nothing sinister in his doubts on Lottie's reveal.

By th way, I realized I had more of these to go than I thought...forgot about Morsul, Brinn, and Pitch. I feel like I would just be repeating myself, on feeling generally good about them. I've got to go grab some food, I'll be back to read all that's taken place and then vote.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Wow, a gifted reveal again. These Days, hardly a game would be complete without one or two, it seems. I must say I expected some more glamorous secret role, but that's a matter of taste, not an argument.
I think I can understand Lottie's reveal. YesterDay's bandwagon came rather late in the Day, she couldn't be sure it wouldn't happen again, and not knowing for sure whether she would be able to come back later toDay, she didn't want to take the risk of losing her chance to dream. Especially as it's her first time as a Gifted, she'd be anxious to do it right.
Anyway, I also think we can rule out the possibility that she's wolvish. Supposing yesterDay's Lottie-wagon was fueled by one or more wolves trying to save Mnemo, as seems likely, does anybody really think they would have put up another packmate as the alternative candidate?
So, let's give Lottie her chance, I think it'll do us good.
(I guess I'm hardly the first to say any of this, but nevermind. And for once, I'm letting it stand without any qualifiers and on-the-other-hands; it'll take some practice, but maybe I can make that a habit.)

Yes, you've said some things others have, but I'm going to tell you, that you're actually not being agreeable in this post. You might have some reservations about the reveal, and are repeating a few things, but you've added a new perspective that hasn't been mentioned. That is, supposedly Lottie was an attempt to save Mnemo.

Perhaps someone will speculate that it's possible Lottie's a wolf too, who got into trouble, therefor this is her attempt to get out of a lynch. But you can imagine all the assumptions one has to make to dream this scenario, while ignoring all the other facts about what makes sense in Lottie's reveal. Plus, if anyone tries to say they were saving Mnemo because she was making more sense than Lottie, than I will definitely beg to differ on that point!

Edit: crossed with whoever posted since Pitch's post I respond too

[A Little Green]

COMFORTABLE WITH:

Boro - I still feel good about him, though his vote record looks a bit flimsy. Actually the thing that worries me about him is that everyone seems to consider him more or less innocentish. Overall I don't find him suspicious. (The flip-flopping goes in the family. )

Loslote - On the subject of her reveal: I'm inclined to believe her for now, or at least check what she says toMorrow. Unlike some, I don't find it weird in the least that she should reveal now if she really has a role like that and is not returning toDay. I find it logical - she's basically making sure (or trying to) that she'll have her dream: she told us not to lynch her and has the ranger protect her at Night.

Morsul - I'm inclined to think him innocent. I understand his self-vote even though I don't much like it.

Macalaure - He feels fine.

Thinlómien - Leaning good. Like Boro, I frowned a bit over her Day 1 "I'd like to vote Mnemo, but then it would be bandwaggoning" -argument (voting someone without wanting them to get lynched is kind of controversial), and I can't shake off the thought she might be an opportunistic wolf. Overall, though, there are many others who look worse than she does. I debated with myself whether to put her here or in the next category.

Nerwen - I feel fairly good about her.


NO IDEA OR IN BETWEEN:

Brinn - Aaaaargh. I'll put her down as super confusing. She's giving me "very innocent" and "rather bad" -signals at once!

Nienna - Contrary to many, I don't find Nienna that suspicious. She's so sneaky and careful as a wolf that to vote twice to save a fellow would sound quite unlike her wolf-self. (Wolf-self. Hehe. Love that word.) I'll put her here, though, because I don't have a strong or even semi-strong feeling for her innocence, either.

Nogrod - Eurgh. Really really don't know - it's ironic, actually: early on, I concentrated too much on him and he was almost the only one I had stuff to say about, and now I have nothing on him whatsoever. Confusing.

Bes - No idea whatsoever.

wilwa - Eurgh I don't know about her either.


WARY OF (I could put everyone here, I guess...):

Eomer - I think his votes could have been wolf-on-wolf, schemed to make him look good: on Day 1 he gives Mnemo her second vote, breaking a huge tie of many people with one vote and putting her on the lead (a risky but not decisive vote); on Day 2 he votes Mnemo again, but since his vote was the 7th it really made no difference. I don't remember ever playing with an Eomerwolf, so I don't know if he's usually a bold one or not, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was.

Pitchwife - Another aaaaargh. I'm starting to distrust his "Mr. Agreeable" manner (sorry Pitch, it's just such a funny name! ), and I'm not convinced that Mnemo's wolvery clears him. Mnemo's comments on Pitch feeling "off" and even considering voting him on Day 1 could be safe wolf-on-wolf suspicion, easy to call off the next Day as "Day 1 suspicions", yet leaving an impression on having suspected the person. Don't know if Mnemo's Day 2 case on Pitch is too bold to be wolf-on-wolf (I accidentally typed wolf-on-eww!), then again, I don't think Pitch was that suspected on that Day, and it might have been even that Mnemo guessed she'd get lynched and decided to make a fellow look good in passing...

sally - Her votes look pretty bad, and I find the tone of this post quite sinister:

Originally Posted by Sally

Or maybe Mnemo was trying to set me up. You missed that one too. *rolls eyes* Boro, darling, you know better than this. If you're grasping at straws this much I'm going to have to start suspecting you.

Also....

"You think you'll trick me into giving something away. It won't work." Because there's no guilt in my little body. So move on and try to trap someone else.

I'm confused about her banter with Mnemo yesterDay. Still, I have a nagging feeling that she's too easy a catch, somehow - that the real wolves are others than her.

Shasta - His vote record looks very bad. He could be a sneaky wolf. And I don't like the tone of the following quote. At all.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, Mnemo fooled me.

Leaning wolf.

--

I'm now speculating about a pack consisting of Mnemo, Eomer, Pitchwife and Shasta. I'd love to investigate but right now other matters demand my attention... I'm too lazy to preview so this post will probably swarm with typos and grammatical errors but really, who cares.


EDIT: x-ed with a host.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm now speculating about a pack consisting of Mnemo, Eomer, Pitchwife and Shasta. I'd love to investigate but right now other matters demand my attention... I'm too lazy to preview so this post will probably swarm with typos and grammatical errors but really, who cares.


EDIT: x-ed with a host.

I'm agreeing with about 3/4 of this. Surprisingly, while I think Lottie looks guiltier than sin, Boro looks far too eager to lynch the innocent me and Eomer is more than happy to help him. I'd bet my lunch (a tasty sandwich) that one of them is a wolf. And if nothing else I know we would learn something from Shasta's death, as so much of him concerns me and I'd like to see the rest of the method behind his madness.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and I love that I'm agreeing (mostly) with Nog but I must remind myself that being agreeable/disagreeable does not indicate innocence/guilt. We all have to keep that in mind, in fact. I'm just sayin'.

*dashes off again for a moment*

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

What I can say is this - Brinniel could be a wolf (not discounting her D1 connection to Nerwen) trying to save a Niennawolf with that next-to-most-recent post of hers. She brings up valid points, but it's almost with a "I'm not sure it's a good idea, but you guys do what you wanna do" attitude.

If I were a wolf with Nienna, chances are I'd be throwing her under the bus rather than saving her. Because with her vote record, she'd probably deserve it. Sorry Nienna.

In the past, I've had no problems with lynching a fellow wolf if I thought that was necessary to make myself look better and/or they were drawing enough attention to themselves anyway. Which is probably why I'm wary of the Mnemo voters. I know I'm not the only player here that doesn't mind throwing a fellow wolf under the bus.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Well, Brinn, Werewolf can be a simple game. I have reasons for finding the Mnemo voters probably innocent, for now at least. After a few days we can examine more theories but for now, when we still have so many people alive in this expedition, I'm not going to complicate things.

We all have different ways in how we play, so I accept that. I understand why you'd find those who voted to save Mnemo and I don't see leaving the Mnemo voters alone for toDay as a problem...I just don't want to see them fall under the radar or continue to be disregarded later on, because if we did that, we could easily be handing the victory to the wolves.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How do the wolves set up her if she herself makes the votes? Or how do they do that because "plenty of innocents have been lynched that way"?

I don't think Nienna is "automatically guilty" or assume that those voting for Mnemo are obviously innocent. And I'm not sure anyone does that (I see Eomer cleared that up already...). So why do you Brinn wish to make it look like people thought like that?

Yes, Nienna's votes are her own errors, but if she's innocent, I could easily imagine the wolves at Night saying something like, "Pity we lost Mnemo, but look at Nienna's vote record; she could easily be set up for toMorrow's lynch, and with little help from us." The wolves don't need to create this whole bandwagon to get her lynched; sometimes all they need to do is give a gentle nudge and the village will take the bait.

I'm not trying to make people look like they're assuming one way or the other, but I did notice earlier in the Day that most players seemed to have Nienna at the top of their suspicion list, which is an indication of how toDay's voting might sway. And I'm concerned people will be too quick to jump on the most obviously suspicious person since more often than not they turn out innocent. I get the feeling that Nienna may be a mislead innocent, though I can't say I'm entirely confident about that since she has as a wolf managed to get away with some very suspicious stuff in the past. I don't care to see her lynched toDay, but would rather like to keep an eye on her.

Originally Posted by Sally

And besides, keep this in mind. Who's to say that the secret role isn't a modified wolf?

I doubt that the role is a modified wolf since I agree with Boro that it wouldn't be a separate role, but an extension of a current wolf role. But it's possible the secret role is a cobbler. Or perhaps a cursed...though I think that's less likely.