WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Loslote]

Sorry about yesterDay. I had planned to look at all of her posts, but I hadn't even finished her first when I had to go. I barely managed to finish that one. In hindsight, I probably should have just dropped that Post 1 analysis, but...

[Loslote]

Looking at people:

Boro is fairly logical and makes sense most of the time, but I can't quite get a reading on him.

Eomer I have no idea about, but probably innocent.

I don't think Morsul is a wolf, but I can't say with anything like certainty that he's an ordo.

I think Brinn's innocent...we just get on each other's nerves...

Pitchie seems innocent, maybe too much so? I'm not too worried about him right now, though.

Nienna seems good. She's one of the ones I feel most confident about...not that that's very confident...

Something still feels off about Nogrod, but I can't put my finger on it.

I thought Mac looked good yesterday, and I think so even more now. When he mentioned that we wouldn't learn too much from my role if I died, and more from Mnemo's - that seemed ordoish.

I don't know what to think about sally. She doesn't jump out as a wolf, but she's done some things that make me think.

Lommy, as you may have noticed, definitely looks furry to me. I still have no proof or reasoning, so I'll probably ease back on that one.

Nerwen looks genuine.

Bes still looks suspicious to me. He is a newbie, so I'm not looking very hard at him yet, but I do think he could easily be a wolf.

Shasta could go either way for me.

Wilwa looks suspicious, but she's not at the top of my list.

Greenie I'm not sure about.

So, Suspicious:
Bes, Lommy, and Nog still look the worst to me.

Slightly suspicious:
Wilwa, sally, and maybe Pitchie.

Unsure:
Shasta, Greenie, Morsul

Leaning innocent:
Brinn, Boro, Eomer

Probably innocent:
Nerwen, Nienna, Mac.

EDIT: xed with wilwa and Mac

[Loslote]

Oh, and just to get this out of the way, because I know it's going to come up...

Don't lynch me toDay, because I am the Secret Role. I am a limited seer. I have only one dream, on Night Four - aka, toNight.

I don't know how much longer I'll have online, but I should be able to get on later. Hopefully. Until then, have fun being chaotic.

[Nienna]

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward. I'd also appreciate some reasoning behind why people seem to find me very suspicious and willing to kill just to see if I'm evil. *Waits patiently to be analyzed*

I'd love to hear more from Lommy. I do not agree with Mac that her two decisive votes for Mnemo make her look super innocent. Her behavior has still been a bit strange and her votes could easily have been wolf-on-wolf.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward.

Not again...

For a new suspect: How about Bes? The more I look at him, the more uneasy I get, but I don't have time to analyze him right now. I've only got fifteen minutes or so before I've got to go...

[Loslote]

Oh, well. Looking at Bes:

Post 1: IC banter, comments on the Boro issue, suggests no one votes Day 1.

Post 2: Backs off when Roa and Mnemo veto the 'no voting' suggestion.

Post 3: IC banter, says he's going to sleep.

Post 4: Says he's reading up and waiting for Legate to answer a question on the rules.

Post 5: Backpedals on the Boro issue; says he doesn't know what to think about Nog and Roa; votes Mac because Inzil's arguments looked best.

Post 6: Apologizes for his hasty Mac vote earlier; promises to be more careful.

Post 7: Summarizes Mac's posts; says Pitchie looked just as suspicious

Post 8: Says he won't be voting; promises to post more on Day 3 if he's still here.

He hasn't come on again, but when you look at him, he never really says anything...might just be newbieness, might be wolfishness. As he's my top suspect,

++Bes

So sorry if you're innocent...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I have the impression Lottie's been getting on Brinn's nerves ever since their first game together (when innocent Lottie tried to make a case against innocent Brinn based on some blatant word-twisting). Also, Brinn's vote for Lottie was the first at a time when there were plenty other contenders for the noose.

Heh, I didn't even remember that until you mentioned it...and even then it's still blurry. But really, I don't have any harsh feelings against Loslote; I simply found her actions yesterDay to be suspicious.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Green: probably innocent, voted Mnemo first.

Eomer: definitely innocent, put Mnemo in lead.

Lommy: definitely innocent, put Mnemo onto 3 votes.

Mac: possibly guilty, said he'd prefer Inzi over Mnemo a lot. Maybe too strong and incriminating for a wolf? Also, highly suspicious of Mnemo next day. PROBABLY INNOCENT.

Shasta: guilty? tried to save Mnemo

Nienna: guilty? ditto

Inzi: innocent, sacrificed to save Mnemo on first day and Mnemo also suspected him the day after, after he already had a lot of votes.

Nerwen: probably innocent, strongly against Mnemo on second day.

Pitch: innocent? voted for by Mnemo at start of day two.

Wilwa: guilty? when votes are 1 each for lots of people, wilwa defends Mnemo.

Nogrod: innocent? seems critical of Mnemo

Sally: guilty? also doesn't want to vote Mnemo

Nienna tried to save Mnemo again by killing Loslote. GUILTY

So apparently Eomer has come to the conclusion that everyone who voted Mnemo is innocent and those who tried to save her are probably guilty. That is a horrible assumption to make. While those who weren't convinced of Mnemo's guilt may look more suspicious, that doesn't necessarily mean they are. And with seven votes for Mnemo, I think it could be very likely that at least one is wolf-on-wolf. There are players among the Mnemo voters who are risk-takers and would probably be perfectly okay with sacrificing a wolf to make them look better.

Btw, I'm slightly concerned about this jump on Nienna. Yes, she tried to save Mnemo twice, but that doesn't make her automatically guilty. I've seen plenty of innocents get lynched in the past for this reason and because of that, the wolves could easily set Nienna up to be toDay's lynch, so let's not jump to conclusions. Of course now that I've said this, she'll probably turn out to be a wolf after all. But unless she does something majorly suspicious toDay, I doubt I'll vote her.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Don't lynch me toDay, because I am the Secret Role. I am a limited seer. I have only one dream, on Night Four - aka, toNight.

Hmm...I'm not convinced. The problem with the secret role is that it's so much easier for a baddie to get away with a fake reveal since we don't know what the role is. One dream for the entire game? A limited seer is certainly possible, though I honestly expected more from a secret role.

While I'm still not sure whether to believe Loslote's claim, I will give her the benefit of the doubt for toDay and see what dream she comes up with toMorrow. It'd be pretty silly to lynch her now with the chance that she is telling the truth. I wonder if there'll be a counter reveal...

[Bes]

I can't fault Lottie's reasons for suspecting me, she makes valid points. I mean, I can sit here and explain why I haven't been active all day, but you guys don't know me to be sure whether or not I'm being sincere (By the by, called in to work today unexpectedly. I was expecting to be available to play from 4PM to 8PM EST, but it didn't happen that way. One of the other employees sprung a doctor's appointment on the supervisor as a surprise. )

I am surprised by her reveal, though. I mean, very surprised. Bear with me: If she's telling the truth, then she's put herself in a perfect position to get night killed, and (if I understand how it works properly) be prevented from ever revealing her dream. Waiting until tomorrow to reveal and telling everyone what she dreamed would have easily prevented that, and I don't think the suspicion against her is sufficient at the moment for lynching to be a big concern for her. Which makes me think that this is a false reveal by a nervous wolf, following up an easy vote on someone that's been stumbling over his own feet through the game so far.

I dunno, other people's thoughts? Also, I'm a slow typist, so I expect to cross with a few people.

Edit: Really? Huh, no I didn't. But I am reminded: Brinn is convinced by this reveal awfully quickly...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Bes

I am surprised by her reveal, though. I mean, very surprised. Bear with me: If she's telling the truth, then she's put herself in a perfect position to get night killed, and (if I understand how it works properly) be prevented from ever revealing her dream.

Well, so long as the ranger is still alive by toNight, they can protect her. I too thought it odd that she would reveal now considering she's not even a serious lynch candidate at the moment. But if she is telling the truth and considering it doesn't look like she'll be back before deadline, she could've just panicked.

Originally Posted by Bes

But I am reminded: Brinn is convinced by this reveal awfully quickly...

Wait, what? I just said I'm NOT convinced of her reveal. But still, even if there is a counter reveal, I'll still give her the benefit of the doubt for toDay because I don't want to risk the chance that she is what she says she is and lose a possible dream. If this is a false reveal, we will figure it out eventually; we always do.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Ok kids we need to find some new suspects because I'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure Sally isn't a wolf... and since I think it is safe to assume for the moment that Lottie isn't a wolf... new suspects need to be brought forward. I'd also appreciate some reasoning behind why people seem to find me very suspicious and willing to kill just to see if I'm evil. *Waits patiently to be analyzed*

Well now you can't expect us to just sit here and be hunky-dory about those who defended Mnemo and voted in an attempt to save her. You are under suspicion for strong and understandable reasons.

However, as I said before, I think votes can be craftily manipulated by the wolves. And since Mnemo had 3-votes on Day 1 I'm putting more stock into the wolf-on-wolf than Eomer is. That still doesn't change the fact that several people defended her, and several more didn't have much to say about her, so Eomer is being 100% understandable in his focus on those who defended Mnemo.

Taking other stuff into consideration, aside from the voting, I think you look pretty good Nienna. Your consistant efforts against Lommy make you look more innocent than others who defended Mnemo. Lommy is a tough lynch, and I would think any wolves who were trying some sort of effort to save Mnemo would try to turn the focus on someone who was under more suspicion/an easier lynch.

I will just tell you though, I have no idea what you're seeing that is suspicious with Lommy. I may be putting too much stock in judging people based on feelings and words, but Lommy said she was "detached." A wolf doesn't say that, plain and simple. A wolf is excited to be a wolf, they may not be a loud/active player, but there still is a certain level of excitement, and involvement, about having the role.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So apparently Eomer has come to the conclusion that everyone who voted Mnemo is innocent and those who tried to save her are probably guilty. That is a horrible assumption to make. While those who weren't convinced of Mnemo's guilt may look more suspicious, that doesn't necessarily mean they are. And with seven votes for Mnemo, I think it could be very likely that at least one is wolf-on-wolf. There are players among the Mnemo voters who are risk-takers and would probably be perfectly okay with sacrificing a wolf to make them look better.

Eomer is pretty much saying that, but that's still an exaggeration. It's like when people thought I was saying we should lynch all the reasonable players. Eomer isn't saying lynch everyone who defended/voted to save Mnemo, because there just aren't that many wolves. But he is rightfully pointing attention to the sizeable group of people who did something to defend Mnemo. Anyone in that group could be a wolf and it's only right they all should come under suspicion for it.

Edit: crossed with Brinn

[Bes]

Brinn: That's what I get for speed reading. Appologies. Also, I need to get to bed. See you all tomorrow. I'd say I'd get more done, but honestly that seems to be the kiss of death for my productivity so far. We'll see. :-/

[Boromir88]

Lottie's reveal makes perfect sense. If she only gets one dream, her task was to stay alive to get it, and with the Ranger's help, she'll get it.

I see no reason to doubt it. The wolves just lost one yesterday, why throw another one out into the water? We'll find out if she's telling the truth or not within a few days.

I do think with what happened yesterday, Lottie wasn't going to be under suspicion like she was yesterday, but if she's gone for the rest of the day I certainly understand her reason to not want to risk it.

[Nogrod]

Some random notes while reading myself up to date...

Mac, do you see a pattern: almost anyone who votes you or suspects you is suspicious to you? You should know better...

Even if it is possible Nienna and Lottie are both innocents (or that Lottie has that secret role) I still don't like what they do. First Nienna makes a careful whitewashing of Lottie - I mean not open or straightforward but kind of discreet one and calling for new suspects immediately after the "reveal", then Lottie says this...

Originally Posted by Lottie

Nienna seems good. She's one of the ones I feel most confident about...not that that's very confident...

I just feel bad about this.

And Lottie's list of suspiciouns and trust seems to basically run counter to mine so I naturally look at her with suspicious mind... Not to say that her vote doesn't look very good either. She appears to pull Bes out from a hat and makes a hasty last fifteen minute analysis. Not good.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Btw, I'm slightly concerned about this jump on Nienna. Yes, she tried to save Mnemo twice, but that doesn't make her automatically guilty. I've seen plenty of innocents get lynched in the past for this reason and because of that, the wolves could easily set Nienna up to be toDay's lynch, so let's not jump to conclusions.

How do the wolves set up her if she herself makes the votes? Or how do they do that because "plenty of innocents have been lynched that way"?

I don't think Nienna is "automatically guilty" or assume that those voting for Mnemo are obviously innocent. And I'm not sure anyone does that (I see Eomer cleared that up already...). So why do you Brinn wish to make it look like people thought like that?

Hmm...I'm not convinced. The problem with the secret role is that it's so much easier for a baddie to get away with a fake reveal since we don't know what the role is. One dream for the entire game? A limited seer is certainly possible, though I honestly expected more from a secret role.

Exactly my thoughts as well. And the problem is we have no way of confirming or disproving whatever she says toMorrow leaving us with the worst scenario two wolves as "revealed innocents" (herself and whoever she reveals) - and by drawing the ranger to protect her the next Night she'd give the wolves a free kill the next Night... well that is if she is a wolf.

It might be something clever wolves could have planned last Night even though I'm the first one to take that kind of rthings with a pinch of salt: we oftentimes imagine wolves making much grander plans they actually do. But anyway.

While I'm still not sure whether to believe Loslote's claim, I will give her the benefit of the doubt for toDay and see what dream she comes up with toMorrow. It'd be pretty silly to lynch her now with the chance that she is telling the truth. I wonder if there'll be a counter reveal...

Without a counter-reveal I think we have no other chance... But the problem is that if the other role is cobbler-like or in anyway evil-leaning there will be none - and if it is a strong role for good there will be none either...

I'm not suggesting lynching Lottie toDay unless some serious counter-reveals emerge, but I'm really quite confused and untrusting of her right now.

Nooo, there are so long new ones... just a moment.

[Boromir88]

After I'm done with this I'm really going to have to whip you two (sally and Nog) into shape.

What are you trying to prove contesting her reveal? If you're the Limitted seer secret-role than come out with it already, but if you aren't you're not proving anything by going through post-by-post of hers and saying that before the reveal she wasn't making sense to you, therefor you doubt believing her.

Here's the deal.

1. The wolves lost one of their own 1st-lynch. If you think they're going to throw another out there the next day, that's real brass.

2. She disclosed details about the role. When wolves make a fake reveal how much detail do you think they want to get into? That's rhetorical, but I'll say it anyway, as little as possible. She said, I'm a limitted seer, I get one dream on Night-4. That kind of specifics about the role proves (at least to me) she's not a wolf, because when making fake reveals wolves like to stay away from specifics, since they're full of crap.

3. She gets her dream, if she says she's got a wolf, we lynch. That person is a wolf, we're all good. If not we lynch Lottie next day. If she reveals an innocent and Lottie (or the "known" innocent) doesn't get killed soon we lynch her.

Seems pretty cut and dry to me. Like I said, perhaps based on what happened yesterday she may not have been a major suspect today. However, the fact is she was yesterday, we already know she can't be on that often and she doesn't want to risk it...and if she's a special role that has 1-dream, I'm glad she isn't risking it, especially with the way you two are acting about it.

sally, I think you grossly exaggerate some of your analysis of her too, which I will get to eventually, but I'm returning back to the more useful thing I was doing.