WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

For the record, she was an innocent ordinary member of the expedition.

Pity she's gone, but thank Goddess that's out ouf the way!

[Boromir88]

Now onto thoughts from all the people I've studied considerably up to this point...

Wilwa: no appearance yet. She says she'll be with us today, I think we let the ice do with her what it will...erm forced glacier pun, in other words we wait for her because nothing else can be determined yet.

tromkehra: 2 in character posts, #33 was a response to Roa and #53 a response to Bes. Pick it up today trom, I may vote for you because my gratitude is on thin...ice. (And yes, I just did it again )

Loslote: #7 was completely in character and remarking about the inspiring talk so far, full of long words. #9 agrees with Nienna about wanting to avoid gifted reveals. #15 talks to Pitch about a previous internet game thingy, one I'm unfamiliar with. (Same thing I said to trom applies to Lottie)

Brinn: #38 said DL is bad for her, but likes people moving away from banter. And defends yours truly. #78, defends yours truly again...doesn't like how several people "jumped on me." #92 comments to Lommy about previous game when her, Nog, and Roa were wolves. #105, suspects Nog for his attack against Roa, and Nerwen for her against me. Votes for Nerwen.

She's moved into the "unsure" category, because the wagon of people claiming they didn't like how several jumped onto my comments is just as troubling as those who did. However she was the first to say she agreed and defend my reasons, so I'm still leaning towards innocence. It will take a lot to get me to thinking about voting for her today.

I would also like to just point out, that out of those who did question what the heck I was saying, Nerwen looks the most innocent. I never actually felt like she was twisting what I was saying, or assuming I was saying something I wasn't, but was searching for clarification.

Bes: #39 in character at first, but then says I back-pedalled after being questioned by Inzil, Nerwen, and Roa. #42, notes Mnemo and Roa for answering his musings about not lynching on Day 1. #44, in character and says he needs to go to bed. #136 "back and reading." #156, now he actually does back-pedal on what he said about me in #39. Is suspicious of both Nog and Roa for their arguing, but feels strongest about Mac because of Inzil's points.

I'm unsure about Bes, but let's put it as "leaning guilty." Deserves another looking and of his few posts there was a lot of in-character. I think the biggest question is how he tags onto Inzil's suspicion of Mac and votes Mac, because of it. I can't tell if it's a new player who is getting his feet frozen...erm wet, trying to get a feel, or if it's a wolf trying to absolve himself from his own vote. The "I was just convinced by this person defense."

will continue with the rest after I eat.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Either I don't get that, or it's non sequitur. People wouldn't have voted to lynch either in earnest if they were gifted? Wolves would certainly have done it. And innocents have done it before by mistake, as was discussed at some length yesterDay (by yourself, among others) - which discussion should have reminded us to be more careful not to make the same mistake again, but it's no guarantee. So I don't see how we can assume anything about Zil's and Mac's roles, pro or con, based on the votes for them.

Before I eat, should clear up yet again my dazzling inability at unclarity.

I mean since we all thought someone would die, Mac and Inzil must have both been aware they were in trouble of getting lynched. And since they were aware of this, but did not come out with any reveal, can we assume that they aren't gifted and if they are in danger of being lynched again, and do "reveal" that it is false?

[Pitchwife]

See your point now, Boro, but from my own experience, I don't think so. I've been lynched on Day 1 as a gifted (you wouldn't know that, of course) and didn't reveal to save myself, because I felt a) the village wouldn't benefit from my escaping the noose just to be wolf-killed instead, and b) I deserved what I got, as somebody put it yesterDay. A reveal at a later point, when the population has thinned and known innocents are much more valuable, is another matter.

[Mnemosyne]

Boro, that seems like a relatively safe assumption to make (which, considering that we don't have much information right now, is about all we have to go off of).

But I don't see how it does us much good, aside from giving us some non-Gifteds, because what kind of false wolvish idiot would decide to switch strategies like that?

And not to mention... (here's another one for the bookwriters) There was a day, early in the Werewolf years of this forum, when gifteds simply didn't reveal.

Which led to really interesting moments when people would say things like, "Tell us, Not-Seer, who do you think is a wolf? Who do you think is innocent?" (That person died the next day.) Or one of my favorites, "If you don't vote for X, vote for me, because I'm not the hunter and I won't take him down when I die!"

[/nostalgia]

However, I'm not sure if that ever held true when people were about to die. But different people have different approaches. The game that I modded had a triple-lynch between a wolf, a Ranger, and an ordo. If memory serves me correctly, the Ranger did not reveal. (This was Pitchwife, so if you'd care to back me up on this...)

So, yes, safe assumption for now, but not failproof.

At any rate, anyone who didn't reveal when on the chopping block before but does so afterwards is asking to be disbelieved.

[Mnemosyne]

I should add that Roa's departure puts paid to my theory that she and Nog were our gifteds staging an uprising. Phooey.

Which does mean back to the drawing board with His Nogness himself...

[Nogrod]

Uh-oh... I saw the announcements just logging back in and well...

Okay. The more reasons to make this post... (Sorry, but I will not edit things here to be up to date as I've written this before the news got me, and I've done enough with this post already...)


In the order of voting then on yesterDay…

Morsul (for Mac)
Reads Boro in an awkward way (maybe due to the pressing of Roa and Nerwen?). Makes actually quite decent points on Mac (same analysis, different outcomes). Votes Mac because of his possible making Boro untouchable tactics weighing more. Borrows a lot but also makes some of his own. Not that it makes him more innocent or wolvish.

Roa (for Nogrod)
retaliation… ‘nuff said earlier.

Brinn (for Nerwen)
Looks pretty reasonable indeed… and whatever you Roa say, suspicious just because of that. Careful, wise… makes good assessments on issues and votes Nerwen for bandwaggoning. But is also a bit nervous about my suspicion of Roa. Makes me wonder.

Mnemo (for Inzil)
Is one of the most reasonable people around when talking about general issues. But like Eomer said, her willingness to say that both me and Roa are innocent so many times looks like overdoing it. With the vote she first says she will pick among Zil and Pitch for vibes on the basis of who would garner more votes - and just minutes after that “throws a coin” and votes Inzil…!

Greenie (for Mnemo)
Comes to the solution because of a “slight beep on her radar”, Mnemo not rubbing anyone the wrong way. Very hard to say anything over.

So here we have one vote each…and then it starts...

Eomer (for Mnemo 2)
After suspecting Mac (and a few others) contends Mnemo’s agreeableness is too much and takes her to the lead. Says he is gambling with the vote.

Bes (for Mac 2)
First goes after Roa’s and Nerwen’s “questioning” turning it into open suspicion, then says best thing is Zil’s suspicion on Mac. Maybe newbieness, maybe calculated…

Pitch (for Mac 3)
I agree with Mac this looks bandwagonish… Seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts (like #127 fex.) which seem to say something but yet end up with being nothing but either/or. Also as Mac says, it’s interesting he first lists reasons for his vote but then says it’s more a “vibe-matter” than reasoning.

Lommy (for Mnemo 3)
Consistent suspicions and arguments throughout the Day… a hard thing for a wolf, but still a bit too neat? But thinking her evil would mean basically that Mac is evil as well… *needs to think*

Sally (for Roa)
Says basically nothing but trust me even if I look weird to her… Hard to assess.

Shasta (for Inzil 2)
Would have liked to vote for Eomer (for old times’ sake?) , sees no support in voting me either; does not want to lynch Mnemo or Mac and just goes for Inzil (forgot his early case against Morsul?)

Nienna (for Inzil 3)
Defends Mnemo a few times, thinks me and Roa innocent like Mnemo. Says specifically (after all the earlier) that would like to vote Zil over Mnemo or Mac. There’s something I can’t quite get here.

Nog (for Roa 2)
I had to act / see it through. And actually with Sally’s vote I was wishing to see whether Roa would suddenly – “just by coincidence” appeared back to the thread fighting back… she knows when to be visible and when not… well she didn’t appear. Confident enough or not able to?

Mac (for Inzil 4)
I can’t help suspecting him as we think in many cases the opposite people innocent and I can’t see the point of his “how people reacted to Boro” –stuff as it looked like so random… but his vote is more than understandable (which doesn’t say anything the way or another).

Inzil (for Mac 4)
Same as with Mac: an understandable self-preservation vote. But from the two seems more consistent and genuine as he had suspected Mac from early on. I really can’t see why people thought Zil that suspicious as to garner 4 votes!


Nerwen (for Mac 5 – not counted)
She’s a puzzle to me… makes some rash comments but also makes good questions, fex. as to why Mac made his list on Boro as he did as his own way would be even more suspicious then.


Did not vote…

Boro – I feel more innocent than not.
Wilwa – said she wouldn’t prolly be around and has explained
Trom – newbie and will have the benefit of doubt but needs to pull her act together soon
Lottie – wasn’t bad in the beginning… but not too good either…


Needs to read the latest and to make a summary of all this as well... *a few moments required*

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

But different people have different approaches. The game that I modded had a triple-lynch between a wolf, a Ranger, and an ordo. If memory serves me correctly, the Ranger did not reveal. (This was Pitchwife, so if you'd care to back me up on this...)

Yep, that was me, and for the reasons stated above. (The other lynchee was Zil, unsurprisingly.)

[satansaloser2005]

Hmph. And I'd planned to analyze Roa too. Well, onto other things then I suppose.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

But I don't see how it does us much good, aside from giving us some non-Gifteds, because what kind of false wolvish idiot would decide to switch strategies like that?

Mostly just wishful thinking on my part . Also when I had that in mind I was thinking of an earlier game when wolf-Mac was in trouble he faked a ranger-claim, and was wondering if Mac is a wolf here, fully aware of possibly getting lynched would he do it again.

It might not prove anything useful, but it does make me less paranoid with considering voting for Inzil and lynching him for real today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mac (for Inzil 4)
I can’t help suspecting him as we think in many cases the opposite people innocent and I can’t see the point of his “how people reacted to Boro” –stuff as it looked like so random… but his vote is more than understandable (which doesn’t say anything the way or another).

Wait a second...am I seeing a rather major inconsistancy here? Weren't you just going after Roa for her reaction and misrepresentation of what I said? Now you suspecting are Mac for looking the people who reacted, and don't see the point in doing it?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now you suspecting are Mac for looking the people who reacted, and don't see the point in doing it?

Ok this is so chalk-full of grammatical errors that I can't even justify fixing it...You should be able to get the question out of that mess, but I'll just leave it as is and shake my head at myself.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ok this is so chalk-full of grammatical errors that I can't even justify fixing it...You should be able to get the question out of that mess, but I'll just leave it as is and shake my head at myself.

Heh... It took me some time to make it... I think... but I never understood your point anyway. All Greek to me.

I mean I thought Roa was jumping on you to make you look suspicious - and that looked like a targeted thing. But Mac tried to introduce a kind of general "interpretive net" from the basis of which anyone reacting (or not reacting) to you could be said being suspicious (which is not only baseless but also ridiculous).

Or did you have something else in mind?

[Pitchwife]

Mac, I notice I haven't responded to your defense against my 'double standard' accusation yesterDay. OK, so your first list was perhaps marginally more substantial than Zil's, though you still thought it 'pointless' yourself. But in that very list, you said:

Originally Posted by Mac in #27

Inzil says nothing that tries to look like something. Suspicious. Unfortunately, empirical knowledge tells me that I'm always led to believe he's guilty and then he's not.

when the only thing you had posted before that yourself was in-character roleplay.
OK, that 'suspicion' had an in-built reservation in the next sentence, so I wouldn't have made that much of it, if not for your subsequent wavering.
By the way, I didn't find your position in the Boroversy that suspicious, so far as your defense of Boro goes - although I'm curious what you would have considered an innocent reaction to the discussion, other than simply ignoring it, i.e. staying out of the only substantial discussion there was at the time.
As for the apparent bandwagoning, it irks me myself, as I rather prefer staying out of Day 1 bandwagons. But I had reasons for my vote, which I'd given before, and while they may not have been the best, they haven't really been invalidated since.

But I'd like to avoid tunnel vision and take a closer look at some other people, too. The Zilwagon, which came pretty much out of nowhere in my view, could do with some inspection, for example. Unfortunately it's bedtime again, and worktime after that, so I'll have to postpone it until later in the Day.
See you.

[Boromir88]

Nienna:
#8 shocks but likes Nog's different behavior. Doesn't want early reveals.
#60 agrees with Mac about people jumpin' on me, likes seeing Nog return to old form. Says she's trying really hard not to spite-suspect Lommy, for suspecting her for no reason.
#154 Lommy feels the worst but doesn't vote for her. Thinks Nog and Roa are both probably innocent. Doesn't know what to think of Mac or me. Won't vote for Morsul.
#165 would prefer Inzil over Mac or Mnemo.
#170 responds to Lommy saying Inzil doesn't seem like a good vote. Lommy voted for Mnemo and Nienna said "neither does Mnemo."
#174 votes Inzil. (3/4)

Nienna's looking better today than what I said yesterday. Which I hope dear you can accept this apology, when I said #60 looked like a "half-[bleep] attempt to contribute something" I kind of missed the first part where you said you had work in 5 minutes. That's why it looked rushed.

But I do have a few questions for you...if Lommy looked the worst to you, why not vote for her? Why did you say you wouldn't vote for Morsul at all? And why didn't Mnemo look like a good lynch to you? K-thanks.

Morsul:
#55 says I'm the only one who jumps at the moment. I think he misreads what I say, but thinks I look "more thoughtful than deceitful."
#59 responds to Mac's #57 and starts suspecting him.
#61 disagrees with Mac saying I would have dropped the argument faster if I was a wolf.
#64 personally places less faith in votes than others
#65 figures out the DL and says he can't around, thus will have to vote early.
#69 says that I look more reasonable, Mac makes him uncomfortable and votes him.
#70 defends what he said about voting in #64

I'm putting Morsul in the "innocent" category for right now. Due to circumstances he votes early, and for an early vote it looks pretty good and carefully considered, eventhough I don't think Mac is suspicious. Plus it appears that his comment about placing less faith in votes (#64) stirred up some discussion and suspicion.

I'm not sure why people thought that post was suspicious, or as Shasta put "wishy-washy." It's something I agree with, which is why having people's reasons for their votes more important. They are useful and needed bits of information, but Morsul's right, they can be easily manipulated by the wolves. Maybe in Night 1 there isn't much discussion besides a general strategy. However, after that night time discussions usually do include not only who to kill, but how they will go about the following day. This includes voting, for instance, if one of the wolves is possibly going to get lynched, who will they vote for, who they'll try to get suspicion focused on, and sometimes when they will place their votes. So, I don't understand why people had a problem with Morsul saying he doesn't place as much faith in votes as what others seem to.

It's 8 and I'm late for something relatively important, this means that I will have to finish on sally, Greenie, Shasta, and Nerwen later.

[wilwarin538]

I am here, for the next like hour or so (cause I need sleep bad), so I'll be able to read up on yesterday and then comment a bit, but most of my participation will be tomorrow since I only have 1 class, so you should see more of me then.

So reading, then comments, give me a bit...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I mean since we all thought someone would die, Mac and Inzil must have both been aware they were in trouble of getting lynched. And since they were aware of this, but did not come out with any reveal, can we assume that they aren't gifted and if they are in danger of being lynched again, and do "reveal" that it is false?

No. I think that could only apply where one person was definitely going to get it... and in practice, not even then, as WW history shows. I don't think it's a good idea to assume anything either way.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Also when I had that in mind I was thinking of an earlier game when wolf-Mac was in trouble he faked a ranger-claim, and was wondering if Mac is a wolf here, fully aware of possibly getting lynched would he do it again.

*shrugs* Yes, but he had all Day to prepare for that one.

EDIT:X'd with Wilwa.

[Macalaure]

Having read the comments so far, I will have a close look at Pitch (others agreed with my concerns) and Mnemo (several good points against her).


Unsurprisingly, there's been a lot of talk about myself. I thought I defended myself sufficiently yesterday already, but I guess I'll revisit it. I hope I'll be able to leave it at that from then on.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I can’t see the point of his “how people reacted to Boro” –stuff as it looked like so random…

Here's the simple explanation. As everyone knows, any reasons to suspect anyone are horribly sparse early on Day1. That's why the lists that Inzil and I made were so void of things worthy to be said. The first interesting thing to happen was, well, Boro's statements and the whole lot of reactions to him. I was eager to gather anything remotely meaningful, to find something which enabled me to put some pressure on a few people. Did I expect that short analysis to provide much insight? Not really, but I hoped that it would stir some discussion and that that would provide it (and, yes, people suspecting me for it is valuable, too, at least from my perspective). The fact that it's still being discussed now kind of confirms it.

Did I say simple?

Originally Posted by Pitch

But in that very list, you said:
...
when the only thing you had posted before that yourself was in-character roleplay.

You misunderstand me. I didn't mean that I had posted better stuff before, but that Inzil seemed to be doing the "looking helpful without being helpful" thing. (That's just what I thought then.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

although I'm curious what you would have considered an innocent reaction to the discussion

After my first list, in the very same post, I also made a list of people who weren't suspicious by their reactions.

[satansaloser2005]

Unless of course there was some reason he couldn't, e.g. he has a role which prohibits him from revealing or something that he didn't think people would believe. *shrugs* I think the whole end of the Day was rotten, and I'll tell you why as soon as I finish up some laundry. I swear I'll save some time to do a proper post, but unfortunately RL is eating me up.

EDIT: x'd with Mac

[Loslote]

Here and reading.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

It's not because you've defended me, but you were dead on about wolf-Boro backing away from controversial statements, and not desiring to slam down to try and prove I'm right. Of course Eomer and Morsul are also right to point out my unpredictability and the thrill of the fight, as a wolf, I wouldn't say I'm more cautious, but I definitely choose my battles more carefully.

I love the feeling of having no responsibility besides making a vote. I can just say whatever I want and not care what happens to me, nor feel like if I die early that I'm letting anyone down.

Given that playstyles can change at any time, I hope you don't mind if I take your "yeah that's totally how I'd act as a wolf, and since I'm not acting like that, don't suspect me" at face value, Boro.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Can we assume that based on people believing there would be an actual lynch that neither Inzil nor Mac are gifted?

I don't know, is that something you want the wolves to think? Wasn't there a game a few months ago where you and Phantom teamed up to get Aganzir killed by the wolves because she was an ordo they thought to be gifted?



To answer Mac - I wasn't "sure" that you and Mnemo were innocent, but to my mind there was less "evidence" against either than you than there was against Inzil, who was the only other possible lynch. I didn't vote for him because you suggested it.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Which is why I've decided that I'm not going to vote to try to save people anymore, much less vote "politically." And I encourage others to follow suit.

Why not? If, after going through the evidence, I'm not comfortable about someone's guilt, and there are two people up for execution, I'm going to try to save the one I feel better about. Throwing away my vote on someone I don't feel strongly about executing seems rather pointless to me.



Re: Boro at #202. Interesting that he finds innocent the two people I find most suspicious today.



To answer Nogrod - What early case against Morsul? I wasn't referring to the content of his post, I was referring to the way it was worded. Hence the bolding.



Back in a moment with a rather interesting point on Brinn I found while re-reading - I felt it deserved its own post. I'm sure you're all very thrilled.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Morsul -> Mac (well-reasoned vote, considering how early it was)

Well Thank You sir... that being said... odd to see someone call a vote for themselves reasonable. I feel like I'm being courted to not vote this way again.
hmm

Mnem:On the other hand, Morsul is irritatingly confusing and often confused. Which he is (for me, at least) elsewhere on the thread. Voting him would be easy, especially considering his vote for Mac.

Yeah I get that a lot... but wait.... ill reasoned moi?

Mnem: (Bolding mine)Okay, so the suspicionometers of everyone else on the thread were a lot less definitive than I thought...

And the vibes aren't giving me any more direction...

Which means it's coinflip time...

++Inziladun

Oh and This bit today:

Mnem: YesterDay I had to vote early off no more information than gut feelings, and now that I've had the space of a day to think about it I'd like to actually analyze what I think is setting those feelings off. Feelings, after all, can be really misleading--especially mine (I can think of several other players who've managed to make inspired votes by intuition!).

now these two posts... when seperate seem more like don't lynch me please.... Together make something a bit more... odd

and

So far that's all I've noticed.

[Mnemosyne]

Shasta: because suddenly guilt becomes relative.

[Loslote]

Okay, I'll have to vote way early. Deadline problems again...and I have no idea who to vote for.

Inzil and Mac don't look furry to me, so I don't think I'll be voting for them.

Morsul is suspicious looking, but then, I always suspect him, mostly because I can't follow his logic.

I've never played with Eomer before, but he seems to be making sense, so I don't think I'd vote for him today unless something extreme happens.

I can't get a read on Boro, despite the 'issue' yesterDay - or maybe because of it.

Brinn is another one I always suspect. This game I think she's good, which worries me...gah. Enough paranoia.

Pitchie looks suspicious, but I don't have anything solid yet. I think I will look more closely at him.

Mnemo doesn't seem furry, but I'm not anywheres near certain, and am not crossing her off the list anytime soon.

I haven't gotten much read on Nienna yet.

Nogrod is the most suspicious yet...but even he doesn't scream wolf...more like whisper it.

Not getting much from Sally, either.

Lommy seems suspicious, but I have no reason for it.

Nerwen looks good. At least, I haven't seen anything that doesn't seem genuine yet.

Bes is new. I don't know his style yet, but he does seem a tad bit off. I'll look at him later, probably not toDay.

I don't think Shasta's a wolf...but I can't quite tell.

Wilwa hasn't been around much due to RL. Understandable.

Haven't picked much up on Greenie yet, either.

Tromkehra's new, too. Can't tell very much, but his (her?) repeated posing in role kind of rankles...but not in a particularly furry way...

That turned into a list. I wasn't actually expecting that. I do lists a lot, don't I?

EDIT: xed with Shasta, Morsul, and Mnemo

[Morsul the Dark]

Mnem:On the other hand, Morsul is irritatingly confusing and often confused. Which he is (for me, at least) elsewhere on the thread. Voting him would be easy, especially considering his vote for Mac.

Morsul is suspicious looking, but then, I always suspect him, mostly because I can't follow his logic.

The fact that I just quooted Mnem saying basically the same thing as Loslate made me laugh

Told you I get that a lot.

[Mnemosyne]

Morsul: Touche, touche...

But it's always easy to vote for someone who you think voted weird. I didn't vote for you because 1). you were pretty yourself, as far as I could tell (which my vibes yesterday were saying were off for Inzil and Pitch... analysis of both hopefully coming up in an hour or two), and 2). to me it felt like doing so would be a copout. I don't like making "easy" votes in Werewolf, unless the Seer has come out and told me who a wolf is.

[wilwarin538]

My thoughts on the first 3 pages...

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Hasn't any of your degrees taught you anything?

Some people are masters at creating ideas and love leading out with those ideas. Others are also masters at creating ideas, but don't have the confidence to lead out with them. While others still are great at taking someone's created idea, and rolling with it, building on it, and making it better. Others still aren't the creative type, but take all what has been said and reach their own mind. And finally others would make perfect executioners, they carry out the all the orders and make things happen, otherwise there would just be a few washed-up preachers endlessly debating around in circles....look at the greeks.

I neither preach nor teach. I am what I am, and I know what I am. Someone's got to be.

This post makes no sense to me. Seems like a lot of talk for nothing. The last line is weird.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As an ordo I know it. 'nuff said - meaning we're coming to the "uncomfortable zone" here and I'm not willing to argue anything as it's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for (which is actually just fair). Everyone can use their little grey cells though... and I suggest you all ordos do it and see it yourselves.

I completely understand what Nog is trying to say here (though some seem confused on what he's referring too), and so I get why he's so adament about his suspicion for Roa, but:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, but people don't always pay close attention to things, especially if they don't have a role.

I have to agree with Nerwen here, it's not really enough to make me suspicious of Roa aswell. Though it is enough to make me confident in Nog.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

(to Boro)
In my analysis, your right, I like to be thorough. But I scan admin threads, and I typically assume three wolves, because that's the typical number. What I don't like is how when I made my slip, you were all giggles. Now that someone has said, "Oh that's suspicious," you agree.

I agree with this.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I am now convinced that the secret role is the cobbler, and Nogrod is it. He's clearly hinting at being the seer, which the seer Nogrod wouldn't do, because he knows better than to do something so risky. Further more, he can't be the seer, because he most certainly wouldn't attack me like this if he was. Make no mistake, this is a cobbler planning a false reveal.

I don't agree with this. I didn't for a second get any vibes that Nog was pretending to be the seer, I think this is because Roa doesn't understand what exactly Nog was trying to say, and because of that it's making me question her, but still not really enough yet for me to all out suspect her.

So after page 3 I currently sit at: Boro makes me uneasy, Nog I'm great with and Roa I'm iffy about.

Gonna keep reading and eventually catch up. And as a note: I really don't know what has happened after page three, I'm just doing this to better organise my thoughts, my opinions are probably going to change over my next few posts depending on what else happened. So hopefully this doesn't confuse people too much...

[Loslote]

Really, I think only Nog, Lommy, and Bes look at all wolvish to me. I suppose Morsul, Mnemo, or Pitchie could also be wolves, but I seriously don't have any reasons.

EDIT: xed with wilwa

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

My thoughts on the first 3 pages...



This post makes no sense to me. Seems like a lot of talk for nothing. The last line is weird.



I completely understand what Nog is trying to say here (though some seem confused on what he's referring too), and so I get why he's so adament about his suspicion for Roa, but:



I have to agree with Nerwen here, it's not really enough to make me suspicious of Roa aswell. Though it is enough to make me confident in Nog.



I agree with this.



I don't agree with this. I didn't for a second get any vibes that Nog was pretending to be the seer, I think this is because Roa doesn't understand what exactly Nog was trying to say, and because of that it's making me question her, but still not really enough yet for me to all out suspect her.

So after page 3 I currently sit at: Boro makes me uneasy, Nog I'm great with and Roa I'm iffy about.

Gonna keep reading and eventually catch up. And as a note: I really don't know what has happened after page three, I'm just doing this to better organise my thoughts, my opinions are probably going to change over my next few posts depending on what else happened. So hopefully this doesn't confuse people too much...

Well since you haven't read past page three you wouldn't know this but Roa had to quit sadly... She was an ordo

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As an ordo I know it. 'nuff said - meaning we're coming to the "uncomfortable zone" here and I'm not willing to argue anything as it's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for (which is actually just fair). Everyone can use their little grey cells though... and I suggest you all ordos do it and see it yourselves.

This again: the post is manipulative and confusing. "It's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for" - that's where Roa thought he was trying to hint that he was a seer. One of the other gifteds could fit here, too - and we know that Roa wasn't trying to mislead us now.

"Which is actually just fair" - a weak sentence on its own. The subject is 'which' - this naturally confuses the reader. Which is not a strong subject. The verb 'is' happens to be a linking verb. Linking verbs are weak verbs, and confuse readers. 'Actually just fair' - do I really have to break this down? It's three descriptions, one after the other. One would have done the job, and would have been much easier to read.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Yep, that was me, and for the reasons stated above. (The other lynchee was Zil, unsurprisingly.)

Good times, that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean I thought Roa was jumping on you to make you look suspicious - and that looked like a targeted thing. But Mac tried to introduce a kind of general "interpretive net" from the basis of which anyone reacting (or not reacting) to you could be said being suspicious (which is not only baseless but also ridiculous).

That's what I meant about Mac. It looked as if he was leaving an opening to suspect any of those people he mentioned.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You misunderstand me. I didn't mean that I had posted better stuff before, but that Inzil seemed to be doing the "looking helpful without being helpful" thing. (That's just what I thought then.)

I hate to further abuse a dead and gently rotting horse, but Mac, if your post wasn't 'better', how in blazes was mine more suspicious? How could the same not be said of you?

x/d with Lottie

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Heh... It took me some time to make it... I think... but I never understood your point anyway. All Greek to me.

I mean I thought Roa was jumping on you to make you look suspicious - and that looked like a targeted thing. But Mac tried to introduce a kind of general "interpretive net" from the basis of which anyone reacting (or not reacting) to you could be said being suspicious (which is not only baseless but also ridiculous).

Or did you have something else in mind?

Nope, I see the difference now. Still I'm confused why you think what Mac did was "baseless and ridiculous." All info goes through personal interpretation. The only way we feel 100% confident about someone is if the seer gives us a wolf, or if a wolf goes suicidal.

Right now, everything you have looked at, all your stuff on Roa was your own interpretation leading you to believe she was a wolf. You were wrong, that doesn't make you a wolf, it just means all the "data" you looked at you interpretted incorrectly. Mac was looking at all the reactions towards what I said and tried to interpret how a wolf(ves) would react, just as you looked at it and though Roa saw it as a chance to target me and purposefully misrepresent what I said.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

This post makes no sense to me. Seems like a lot of talk for nothing. The last line is weird.

An attempt at a humorous response to Nog's frustration about people's general inactivity. I was trying to point out the many various different personalities and characteristics of humans.

I'll put it in educational lingo, from one future teacher to another. You should be familiar with "group-work." You notice how some people step right in to take charge of the group, others aren't comfortable with taking charge and might prefer to have a "group leader" to bounce their own ideas off of. Other people are the work-horses who don't create the ideas, but do the writing/work so they can contribute. And of course there are always a few who just want all the work done for them. The general point to Nog though was cool down (literally and figuratively) we are all naturally different, and have different personalities...we all can't be the "group leader" nor are we all the "creative/come up with ideas" type...etc.

As far as the last sentence it was a reference to one of Tolkien's letters where he writes "I neither preach nor teach" plus Reynold de Chatillon (played by Brendon Gleason in Kingdom of Heaven, which I just watched the previous day). It served no purpose besides trying to amuse myself with word play.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Plus, it took me much longer than I thought to go through wilwa's posts.

Oh, you are just so hilarious.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I have to announce that Roa unfortunately had to withdraw from the game (for RL reasons, she just cannot afford to play now). I can no longer put that into toDay's narration, but I will make her leave on the following Day. In any case, she won't be participating anymore toDay so you can leave her out also of your Wolf-hunting. For the record, she was an innocent ordinary member of the expedition.

I will put a short note of her role into the Night 2 summary, too, for easy referrence.

Oh, poor Nog, all that work. And I was actually starting to think her guilty.

On the phone with Glirdan for a bit, then will comment on this last page.

[Nogrod]

I seem to be soo after the track right now... sorry. But here's my thoughts based on my earlier analysis - and taking into account that Roa was innocent...

It's hard to say anything of yesterDay's voting as we do not know who is innocent and who is not. And I must say I still have a hard time believing Roa was innocent. Anyway, if it's anything bad or stressing, I wish you all the best Roa!

But as we need to take what is told to us as given then some adjustments are in place then - and I need to rethink some of my suspicions.



Looking at my analysis back there then... in the order of suspicion - which does not mean anything more but my feeling right now. We have a Day ahead still and the views will chance with the posting - and the order is not a fixed thing and clear to me, I could have put many people on different places. But you'll get the basic idea...


Pitch I have really hard times with. His vote is bandwagonish and he sure is careful not to suspect anyone - on the contrary he seems to put a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone. Also turning his openly stated reasons (mainly borrowed from others) into just "bad-vibes" looks bad. Mac and Pitch are not both wolves.

Mnemo is a most reasonable person and seems to understand a lot. But she is a bit too nice to everyone carefully not suspecting anyone openly. Her vote was a bit dubious as she first said she would see which one of the two (Pitch / Inzil) would be more probably garnering more votes and then she just tells us she flipped a coin to vote for Zil.

Lommy can be seen to try and save Mac... her kind of half-hearted point about "Mac's last post not looking too good either" at the end of yesterDay looks like a wolf on wolf thingy (making the suspicion but taking care make a crucial vote against her mate). But she's consistent and follows the dynamics in a perfect fashion... too good to be a wolf?

Mac voted to save himself but his lists and overall being looks pretty suspicious, careful not to suspect too many people, careful to suspect only those who have been suspected already...

Bes looks pretty bad but it might be newbieness as well. Putting Mac into the lead might not be a coincidence - but it could be as well. A newbie will not receive my vote on the first Day someone is going to get killed but I do wish he would get more talkative toDay.

Brinn sounds like reason itself. Which makes me worry knowing what she can accomplish... but with her I'd look for the voting record after a few Days.

Nienna puts Zil level with Mnemo and Mac. I don't see a good case there but willing to save Mnemo and / or Mac -which is totally understandable if you feel like it - but still her vote on Zil looks to me quite odd.

Lottie made a good enough entrance but where did she disappear? Heh I should have to move you up on my list a fair deal after seeing your last post I actually understood nothing about (sorry, English isn't my first language so you can forget the niceties).

Greenie I might think more innocentish than not as her reasoning for Mnemo looks more or less like my own... although I get the feeling she picks her instead of me because analysing me would be a too big a work!

Nerwen voted for Mac in the end - presumably thinking she was making the difference... a bit uptight thisd time around but it's hard to say whether it means anything...

Morsul looks to me more innocent than not.

Shasta I'm a bit baffled about. His willingness to remake the Shasta - Eomer row looked somehow fabricated (even if it was just making fun). His choice of Zil I would like to hear more about.

Sally is hard to assess as she has said basically nothing. It's always nice to hear you are trusted by someone even if that person thinks you weird. But that might go either way. Can't blame her on her vote on Roa though.

Inzil voted to save himself, looks pretty reasonable otherwise. His first "list" was a futile one but I can't see why you people jump on that alone. Why is it that as he happend to suspect Mac so many of you jump on him?

Eomer looks too darn reasonable.. so I tend to trust him even if the little noise behind my neck says don't. But really, he has been the most rational and decent person around.

Boro seems to make sense and stand independently. I like that.



Can't put into the format:

Wilwa – not seen her
Trom – too much newbie-bussiness


EDIT: seen Wilwa... but will comment only after waking up... as with anything written the last hour or something...

And X'äd with a host of posts...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Whoever mentioned that his behaviour seems cobblerish, I agree. The problem is we don't even know whether we have a cobbler or not.

Bolding mine.

Now, I may be wrong, but it seems to me that I would have said "whether there is a cobbler" rather than "whether we have a cobbler". Honest mistake, slip of the tongue?

There's also Brinn's vote for Nerwen, which (granted, Brinn's not been here much due to RL to talk more about her vote) seems odd to me. I can't really recall Nerwen ever attacking Boro, rather than just disagreeing with him (there's that distinction again!).



Now for Nerwen, mostly for her vote - out of nowhere, last moment, and certain death for Mac had it been counted/Legate's event hadn't happened.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

++Mac

for dodgy reasoning.

Now, the only place I can find where Nerwen even mentioned Mac is in #67, quoted below:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mac, even on your own terms that doesn't make sense... because in fact ignoring an innocent Boro would also be a possible wolvish response– I should say a probable one. At least one wolf nearly always keeps out of the limelight.

Meanwhile, it being Day One, peculiar statements are going to draw attention. There's not much else to go on, after all. Boro has been saying something perfectly obvious as though it's a revelation; sometimes he seems to be be saying we should lynch on that basis and sometimes not... and if not, I don't see why he's going on about it.

As for your saying I'm "attacking" him and being "sinister"... no idea where you're getting that from.

EDIT:X'd with some Morsuls and Greenies. Also the mod.

Firstly, since when does pointing out that something's been omitted from a comment invalidate the rest of the comment? Secondly, the point you make about ignoring Boro being a possible wolf tactic has merit, but not against Mac as he didn't just ignore Boro.

Long story short, not seeing any "dodgy reasoning" here. I don't trust Nerwen's vote at all, I think that she's a wolf who tried to either kill Mac or save Inzil (or possibly Mnemo... all three scenarios have interesting connotations) and I think that if Nerwen does turn out a wolf, then Brinn is also a likely wolf (because her vote looks awfully wolf-on-wolf to me).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Eomer! That's who I wanted to look at next! Considering he hasn't said anything of substance today yet...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin, re: Brinn

Now, I may be wrong, but it seems to me that I would have said "whether there is a cobbler" rather than "whether we have a cobbler". Honest mistake, slip of the tongue?

I noticed the same thing and thought it a bit weird. But to build a case around it? Sounds to me like a Shasta-wolf grasping at straws.

I'm going to have a proper look at Brinn and see what there is to see, followed by a look at our resident quack and Miss Ni. Possibly Shasta as well, but I need to get some rest as I've got a long day tomorrow.


Also, where's the new kid? I've not seen him/her yet and won't rest properly until I give them a nickname. *pokes them* Sad day. Off to analysis then.

[Mnemosyne]

Inziladun...

First entered my radar with his second post (keep in mind that this is me analyzing my feelings for him after the fact). It just seemed odd: Everyone's been posting in character so far, except two, so what shall we do?

AHA! A SUMMARY!

This was made worse by the fact that he didn't say anything about the two people who were actually trying to post about the game itself (not that either one really said anything more than a restatement of the rules, something which I took issue with myself. At any rate it would have worked better to say something like that rather than "nothing of note".)

Next post he corrects Roa. I could see this going either way.

Next post deals with the small gifted discussion, in response to me. Concludes with "I see no reason why we should continue talking about it," but continues talking with Boro about it, two posts later. I prefer it when players suggest closing a certain discussion and then follow their own advice.

His next post, in response to Mac, looks like a legitimate rebuttal.

Next one defends self for continuing to discuss gifteds with Boro. Again, I can see his points here, since it was only one post. But that doesn't mean that he's off the hook for not following through on not talking about gifteds.

Next he weighs in on Nog's initial anti-Roa post, saying he's overreacting.

Asks Greenie why she voted me... (I suspect, for much the same reasons, sans coin, that I voted for him)

Begins fighting with Mac (at whom I also need to take a closer look). Finally votes him for sheer self-preservation.

So far today he's been continuing to talk about Mac...




I think I understand what was giving me vibes yesterday. Several of the posts he made, especially early on, seemed to be for sheer zeal of the game... that first summary, continuing on with Boro... even correcting Roa! That's the kind of exuberance I expect from two kinds of people: 1). wolves, and 2). me. The fact that he was in the most previous game pushes him more into the "wolf" camp, as I know that much of my own exuberance comes from the fact that I take long breaks in between games.

In short, I've been suspecting him because if he's not a wolf, then he's acting too much like me for my own liking. I don't trust people who act like me.

I'll have to look at Pitch and see if I get the same impressions from him.

The good news is that I do have a couple of Inzilwolf days on record, so that I can actually sit down and compare his behavior then to his behavior now, which should help me come up with something better. I'll have to look and see if we have any examples of gifted!Inzil.

And same with Pitch. I've seen him as a gifted, but I haven't read any game in which he's turned out a wolf.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Well since you haven't read past page three you wouldn't know this but Roa had to quit sadly... She was an ordo

On which note, let's remember that we now do have information about someone's role– and unlike most people who drop out early, Roa was in the thick of things.

Originally Posted by Loslote

This again: the post is manipulative and confusing. "It's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for" - that's where Roa thought he was trying to hint that he was a seer. One of the other gifteds could fit here, too - and we know that Roa wasn't trying to mislead us now.

I know– or think I know– what Nogrod's talking about. However, the wording is vague enough that everyone is liable to interpret it differently, so I'm not sure. If he did mean what I think he meant, it would point to his innocence– but only by the use of meta-reasoning. And I could be completely wrong anyway. I can certainly understand why Roa thought he was hinting at being the Seer.

Now, I haven't read through yesterDay, but I believe there were at least a couple of people who claimed to find Nogrod's case convincing, and probably need looking at. It was a pretty dodgy case, after all.

On the subject of grammar–

Originally Posted by Loslote

"Which is actually just fair" - a weak sentence on its own. The subject is 'which' - this naturally confuses the reader. Which is not a strong subject. The verb 'is' happens to be a linking verb. Linking verbs are weak verbs, and confuse readers. 'Actually just fair' - do I really have to break this down? It's three descriptions, one after the other. One would have done the job, and would have been much easier to read.

*cough**cough* Nogrod = non-native speaker. Just so you know. Besides, Lottie, not everyone's an English major...

EDIT:X'd since Lottie at 229; added comment.
EDIT2:got X'ing wrong.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

An attempt at a humorous response to Nog's frustration about people's general inactivity. I was trying to point out the many various different personalities and characteristics of humans.

I'll put it in educational lingo, from one future teacher to another. You should be familiar with "group-work." You notice how some people step right in to take charge of the group, others aren't comfortable with taking charge and might prefer to have a "group leader" to bounce their own ideas off of. Other people are the work-horses who don't create the ideas, but do the writing/work so they can contribute. And of course there are always a few who just want all the work done for them. The general point to Nog though was cool down (literally and figuratively) we are all naturally different, and have different personalities...we all can't be the "group leader" nor are we all the "creative/come up with ideas" type...etc.

As far as the last sentence it was a reference to one of Tolkien's letters where he writes "I neither preach nor teach" plus Reynold de Chatillon (played by Brendon Gleason in Kingdom of Heaven, which I just watched the previous day). It served no purpose besides trying to amuse myself with word play.

Oookkkaayyy....well stop with the word play, it hurts my brain.

So I'm caught up, and now exhausted and confused. Boro weirds me out still, but I'm pretty sure that's normal, I think our mod time together instilled in me an automatic desire to be against him . Nog I'm actually really sure about, even if his reasoning may seem a bit flimsy. Nerwen and Mnemo I'm good with. Everyone else is still up in the air.

The 3 vote getters from yesterday, I don't really get, I can't really see why they were all voted for. That's one think I will look at tomorrow after I sleep and go to school.

Which I will do right now. So that's it from me, but I should have a few hours of steady participation tomorrow between study sessions.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Now, I may be wrong, but it seems to me that I would have said "whether there is a cobbler" rather than "whether we have a cobbler". Honest mistake, slip of the tongue?

I don't see the problem with that. Semantics, that's all.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

There's also Brinn's vote for Nerwen, which (granted, Brinn's not been here much due to RL to talk more about her vote) seems odd to me. I can't really recall Nerwen ever attacking Boro, rather than just disagreeing with him (there's that distinction again!).

The whole thing with Boro somehow blossomed from people simply questioning his comments regarding gifteds, to 'there's got to be a wolf in the people who responded to Boro! I still don't understand what all the fuss was about, and honestly, I don't recall anyone 'attacking' Boro over what he said, just disagreeing.

x/d with Sally, Mnemo, Nerwen, and Wilwa