WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Either I don't get that, or it's non sequitur. People wouldn't have voted to lynch either in earnest if they were gifted? Wolves would certainly have done it. And innocents have done it before by mistake, as was discussed at some length yesterDay (by yourself, among others) - which discussion should have reminded us to be more careful not to make the same mistake again, but it's no guarantee. So I don't see how we can assume anything about Zil's and Mac's roles, pro or con, based on the votes for them.

Before I eat, should clear up yet again my dazzling inability at unclarity.

I mean since we all thought someone would die, Mac and Inzil must have both been aware they were in trouble of getting lynched. And since they were aware of this, but did not come out with any reveal, can we assume that they aren't gifted and if they are in danger of being lynched again, and do "reveal" that it is false?

[Pitchwife]

See your point now, Boro, but from my own experience, I don't think so. I've been lynched on Day 1 as a gifted (you wouldn't know that, of course) and didn't reveal to save myself, because I felt a) the village wouldn't benefit from my escaping the noose just to be wolf-killed instead, and b) I deserved what I got, as somebody put it yesterDay. A reveal at a later point, when the population has thinned and known innocents are much more valuable, is another matter.

[Mnemosyne]

Boro, that seems like a relatively safe assumption to make (which, considering that we don't have much information right now, is about all we have to go off of).

But I don't see how it does us much good, aside from giving us some non-Gifteds, because what kind of false wolvish idiot would decide to switch strategies like that?

And not to mention... (here's another one for the bookwriters) There was a day, early in the Werewolf years of this forum, when gifteds simply didn't reveal.

Which led to really interesting moments when people would say things like, "Tell us, Not-Seer, who do you think is a wolf? Who do you think is innocent?" (That person died the next day.) Or one of my favorites, "If you don't vote for X, vote for me, because I'm not the hunter and I won't take him down when I die!"

[/nostalgia]

However, I'm not sure if that ever held true when people were about to die. But different people have different approaches. The game that I modded had a triple-lynch between a wolf, a Ranger, and an ordo. If memory serves me correctly, the Ranger did not reveal. (This was Pitchwife, so if you'd care to back me up on this...)

So, yes, safe assumption for now, but not failproof.

At any rate, anyone who didn't reveal when on the chopping block before but does so afterwards is asking to be disbelieved.

[Mnemosyne]

I should add that Roa's departure puts paid to my theory that she and Nog were our gifteds staging an uprising. Phooey.

Which does mean back to the drawing board with His Nogness himself...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

But different people have different approaches. The game that I modded had a triple-lynch between a wolf, a Ranger, and an ordo. If memory serves me correctly, the Ranger did not reveal. (This was Pitchwife, so if you'd care to back me up on this...)

Yep, that was me, and for the reasons stated above. (The other lynchee was Zil, unsurprisingly.)

[satansaloser2005]

Hmph. And I'd planned to analyze Roa too. Well, onto other things then I suppose.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

But I don't see how it does us much good, aside from giving us some non-Gifteds, because what kind of false wolvish idiot would decide to switch strategies like that?

Mostly just wishful thinking on my part . Also when I had that in mind I was thinking of an earlier game when wolf-Mac was in trouble he faked a ranger-claim, and was wondering if Mac is a wolf here, fully aware of possibly getting lynched would he do it again.

It might not prove anything useful, but it does make me less paranoid with considering voting for Inzil and lynching him for real today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mac (for Inzil 4)
I can’t help suspecting him as we think in many cases the opposite people innocent and I can’t see the point of his “how people reacted to Boro” –stuff as it looked like so random… but his vote is more than understandable (which doesn’t say anything the way or another).

Wait a second...am I seeing a rather major inconsistancy here? Weren't you just going after Roa for her reaction and misrepresentation of what I said? Now you suspecting are Mac for looking the people who reacted, and don't see the point in doing it?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now you suspecting are Mac for looking the people who reacted, and don't see the point in doing it?

Ok this is so chalk-full of grammatical errors that I can't even justify fixing it...You should be able to get the question out of that mess, but I'll just leave it as is and shake my head at myself.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ok this is so chalk-full of grammatical errors that I can't even justify fixing it...You should be able to get the question out of that mess, but I'll just leave it as is and shake my head at myself.

Heh... It took me some time to make it... I think... but I never understood your point anyway. All Greek to me.

I mean I thought Roa was jumping on you to make you look suspicious - and that looked like a targeted thing. But Mac tried to introduce a kind of general "interpretive net" from the basis of which anyone reacting (or not reacting) to you could be said being suspicious (which is not only baseless but also ridiculous).

Or did you have something else in mind?

[Boromir88]

Nienna:
#8 shocks but likes Nog's different behavior. Doesn't want early reveals.
#60 agrees with Mac about people jumpin' on me, likes seeing Nog return to old form. Says she's trying really hard not to spite-suspect Lommy, for suspecting her for no reason.
#154 Lommy feels the worst but doesn't vote for her. Thinks Nog and Roa are both probably innocent. Doesn't know what to think of Mac or me. Won't vote for Morsul.
#165 would prefer Inzil over Mac or Mnemo.
#170 responds to Lommy saying Inzil doesn't seem like a good vote. Lommy voted for Mnemo and Nienna said "neither does Mnemo."
#174 votes Inzil. (3/4)

Nienna's looking better today than what I said yesterday. Which I hope dear you can accept this apology, when I said #60 looked like a "half-[bleep] attempt to contribute something" I kind of missed the first part where you said you had work in 5 minutes. That's why it looked rushed.

But I do have a few questions for you...if Lommy looked the worst to you, why not vote for her? Why did you say you wouldn't vote for Morsul at all? And why didn't Mnemo look like a good lynch to you? K-thanks.

Morsul:
#55 says I'm the only one who jumps at the moment. I think he misreads what I say, but thinks I look "more thoughtful than deceitful."
#59 responds to Mac's #57 and starts suspecting him.
#61 disagrees with Mac saying I would have dropped the argument faster if I was a wolf.
#64 personally places less faith in votes than others
#65 figures out the DL and says he can't around, thus will have to vote early.
#69 says that I look more reasonable, Mac makes him uncomfortable and votes him.
#70 defends what he said about voting in #64

I'm putting Morsul in the "innocent" category for right now. Due to circumstances he votes early, and for an early vote it looks pretty good and carefully considered, eventhough I don't think Mac is suspicious. Plus it appears that his comment about placing less faith in votes (#64) stirred up some discussion and suspicion.

I'm not sure why people thought that post was suspicious, or as Shasta put "wishy-washy." It's something I agree with, which is why having people's reasons for their votes more important. They are useful and needed bits of information, but Morsul's right, they can be easily manipulated by the wolves. Maybe in Night 1 there isn't much discussion besides a general strategy. However, after that night time discussions usually do include not only who to kill, but how they will go about the following day. This includes voting, for instance, if one of the wolves is possibly going to get lynched, who will they vote for, who they'll try to get suspicion focused on, and sometimes when they will place their votes. So, I don't understand why people had a problem with Morsul saying he doesn't place as much faith in votes as what others seem to.

It's 8 and I'm late for something relatively important, this means that I will have to finish on sally, Greenie, Shasta, and Nerwen later.

[Pitchwife]

Mac, I notice I haven't responded to your defense against my 'double standard' accusation yesterDay. OK, so your first list was perhaps marginally more substantial than Zil's, though you still thought it 'pointless' yourself. But in that very list, you said:

Originally Posted by Mac in #27

Inzil says nothing that tries to look like something. Suspicious. Unfortunately, empirical knowledge tells me that I'm always led to believe he's guilty and then he's not.

when the only thing you had posted before that yourself was in-character roleplay.
OK, that 'suspicion' had an in-built reservation in the next sentence, so I wouldn't have made that much of it, if not for your subsequent wavering.
By the way, I didn't find your position in the Boroversy that suspicious, so far as your defense of Boro goes - although I'm curious what you would have considered an innocent reaction to the discussion, other than simply ignoring it, i.e. staying out of the only substantial discussion there was at the time.
As for the apparent bandwagoning, it irks me myself, as I rather prefer staying out of Day 1 bandwagons. But I had reasons for my vote, which I'd given before, and while they may not have been the best, they haven't really been invalidated since.

But I'd like to avoid tunnel vision and take a closer look at some other people, too. The Zilwagon, which came pretty much out of nowhere in my view, could do with some inspection, for example. Unfortunately it's bedtime again, and worktime after that, so I'll have to postpone it until later in the Day.
See you.

[Nogrod]

Uh-oh... I saw the announcements just logging back in and well...

Okay. The more reasons to make this post... (Sorry, but I will not edit things here to be up to date as I've written this before the news got me, and I've done enough with this post already...)


In the order of voting then on yesterDay…

Morsul (for Mac)
Reads Boro in an awkward way (maybe due to the pressing of Roa and Nerwen?). Makes actually quite decent points on Mac (same analysis, different outcomes). Votes Mac because of his possible making Boro untouchable tactics weighing more. Borrows a lot but also makes some of his own. Not that it makes him more innocent or wolvish.

Roa (for Nogrod)
retaliation… ‘nuff said earlier.

Brinn (for Nerwen)
Looks pretty reasonable indeed… and whatever you Roa say, suspicious just because of that. Careful, wise… makes good assessments on issues and votes Nerwen for bandwaggoning. But is also a bit nervous about my suspicion of Roa. Makes me wonder.

Mnemo (for Inzil)
Is one of the most reasonable people around when talking about general issues. But like Eomer said, her willingness to say that both me and Roa are innocent so many times looks like overdoing it. With the vote she first says she will pick among Zil and Pitch for vibes on the basis of who would garner more votes - and just minutes after that “throws a coin” and votes Inzil…!

Greenie (for Mnemo)
Comes to the solution because of a “slight beep on her radar”, Mnemo not rubbing anyone the wrong way. Very hard to say anything over.

So here we have one vote each…and then it starts...

Eomer (for Mnemo 2)
After suspecting Mac (and a few others) contends Mnemo’s agreeableness is too much and takes her to the lead. Says he is gambling with the vote.

Bes (for Mac 2)
First goes after Roa’s and Nerwen’s “questioning” turning it into open suspicion, then says best thing is Zil’s suspicion on Mac. Maybe newbieness, maybe calculated…

Pitch (for Mac 3)
I agree with Mac this looks bandwagonish… Seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts (like #127 fex.) which seem to say something but yet end up with being nothing but either/or. Also as Mac says, it’s interesting he first lists reasons for his vote but then says it’s more a “vibe-matter” than reasoning.

Lommy (for Mnemo 3)
Consistent suspicions and arguments throughout the Day… a hard thing for a wolf, but still a bit too neat? But thinking her evil would mean basically that Mac is evil as well… *needs to think*

Sally (for Roa)
Says basically nothing but trust me even if I look weird to her… Hard to assess.

Shasta (for Inzil 2)
Would have liked to vote for Eomer (for old times’ sake?) , sees no support in voting me either; does not want to lynch Mnemo or Mac and just goes for Inzil (forgot his early case against Morsul?)

Nienna (for Inzil 3)
Defends Mnemo a few times, thinks me and Roa innocent like Mnemo. Says specifically (after all the earlier) that would like to vote Zil over Mnemo or Mac. There’s something I can’t quite get here.

Nog (for Roa 2)
I had to act / see it through. And actually with Sally’s vote I was wishing to see whether Roa would suddenly – “just by coincidence” appeared back to the thread fighting back… she knows when to be visible and when not… well she didn’t appear. Confident enough or not able to?

Mac (for Inzil 4)
I can’t help suspecting him as we think in many cases the opposite people innocent and I can’t see the point of his “how people reacted to Boro” –stuff as it looked like so random… but his vote is more than understandable (which doesn’t say anything the way or another).

Inzil (for Mac 4)
Same as with Mac: an understandable self-preservation vote. But from the two seems more consistent and genuine as he had suspected Mac from early on. I really can’t see why people thought Zil that suspicious as to garner 4 votes!


Nerwen (for Mac 5 – not counted)
She’s a puzzle to me… makes some rash comments but also makes good questions, fex. as to why Mac made his list on Boro as he did as his own way would be even more suspicious then.


Did not vote…

Boro – I feel more innocent than not.
Wilwa – said she wouldn’t prolly be around and has explained
Trom – newbie and will have the benefit of doubt but needs to pull her act together soon
Lottie – wasn’t bad in the beginning… but not too good either…


Needs to read the latest and to make a summary of all this as well... *a few moments required*

[Nogrod]

I seem to be soo after the track right now... sorry. But here's my thoughts based on my earlier analysis - and taking into account that Roa was innocent...

It's hard to say anything of yesterDay's voting as we do not know who is innocent and who is not. And I must say I still have a hard time believing Roa was innocent. Anyway, if it's anything bad or stressing, I wish you all the best Roa!

But as we need to take what is told to us as given then some adjustments are in place then - and I need to rethink some of my suspicions.



Looking at my analysis back there then... in the order of suspicion - which does not mean anything more but my feeling right now. We have a Day ahead still and the views will chance with the posting - and the order is not a fixed thing and clear to me, I could have put many people on different places. But you'll get the basic idea...


Pitch I have really hard times with. His vote is bandwagonish and he sure is careful not to suspect anyone - on the contrary he seems to put a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone. Also turning his openly stated reasons (mainly borrowed from others) into just "bad-vibes" looks bad. Mac and Pitch are not both wolves.

Mnemo is a most reasonable person and seems to understand a lot. But she is a bit too nice to everyone carefully not suspecting anyone openly. Her vote was a bit dubious as she first said she would see which one of the two (Pitch / Inzil) would be more probably garnering more votes and then she just tells us she flipped a coin to vote for Zil.

Lommy can be seen to try and save Mac... her kind of half-hearted point about "Mac's last post not looking too good either" at the end of yesterDay looks like a wolf on wolf thingy (making the suspicion but taking care make a crucial vote against her mate). But she's consistent and follows the dynamics in a perfect fashion... too good to be a wolf?

Mac voted to save himself but his lists and overall being looks pretty suspicious, careful not to suspect too many people, careful to suspect only those who have been suspected already...

Bes looks pretty bad but it might be newbieness as well. Putting Mac into the lead might not be a coincidence - but it could be as well. A newbie will not receive my vote on the first Day someone is going to get killed but I do wish he would get more talkative toDay.

Brinn sounds like reason itself. Which makes me worry knowing what she can accomplish... but with her I'd look for the voting record after a few Days.

Nienna puts Zil level with Mnemo and Mac. I don't see a good case there but willing to save Mnemo and / or Mac -which is totally understandable if you feel like it - but still her vote on Zil looks to me quite odd.

Lottie made a good enough entrance but where did she disappear? Heh I should have to move you up on my list a fair deal after seeing your last post I actually understood nothing about (sorry, English isn't my first language so you can forget the niceties).

Greenie I might think more innocentish than not as her reasoning for Mnemo looks more or less like my own... although I get the feeling she picks her instead of me because analysing me would be a too big a work!

Nerwen voted for Mac in the end - presumably thinking she was making the difference... a bit uptight thisd time around but it's hard to say whether it means anything...

Morsul looks to me more innocent than not.

Shasta I'm a bit baffled about. His willingness to remake the Shasta - Eomer row looked somehow fabricated (even if it was just making fun). His choice of Zil I would like to hear more about.

Sally is hard to assess as she has said basically nothing. It's always nice to hear you are trusted by someone even if that person thinks you weird. But that might go either way. Can't blame her on her vote on Roa though.

Inzil voted to save himself, looks pretty reasonable otherwise. His first "list" was a futile one but I can't see why you people jump on that alone. Why is it that as he happend to suspect Mac so many of you jump on him?

Eomer looks too darn reasonable.. so I tend to trust him even if the little noise behind my neck says don't. But really, he has been the most rational and decent person around.

Boro seems to make sense and stand independently. I like that.



Can't put into the format:

Wilwa – not seen her
Trom – too much newbie-bussiness


EDIT: seen Wilwa... but will comment only after waking up... as with anything written the last hour or something...

And X'äd with a host of posts...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Whoever mentioned that his behaviour seems cobblerish, I agree. The problem is we don't even know whether we have a cobbler or not.

Bolding mine.

Now, I may be wrong, but it seems to me that I would have said "whether there is a cobbler" rather than "whether we have a cobbler". Honest mistake, slip of the tongue?

There's also Brinn's vote for Nerwen, which (granted, Brinn's not been here much due to RL to talk more about her vote) seems odd to me. I can't really recall Nerwen ever attacking Boro, rather than just disagreeing with him (there's that distinction again!).



Now for Nerwen, mostly for her vote - out of nowhere, last moment, and certain death for Mac had it been counted/Legate's event hadn't happened.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

++Mac

for dodgy reasoning.

Now, the only place I can find where Nerwen even mentioned Mac is in #67, quoted below:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mac, even on your own terms that doesn't make sense... because in fact ignoring an innocent Boro would also be a possible wolvish response– I should say a probable one. At least one wolf nearly always keeps out of the limelight.

Meanwhile, it being Day One, peculiar statements are going to draw attention. There's not much else to go on, after all. Boro has been saying something perfectly obvious as though it's a revelation; sometimes he seems to be be saying we should lynch on that basis and sometimes not... and if not, I don't see why he's going on about it.

As for your saying I'm "attacking" him and being "sinister"... no idea where you're getting that from.

EDIT:X'd with some Morsuls and Greenies. Also the mod.

Firstly, since when does pointing out that something's been omitted from a comment invalidate the rest of the comment? Secondly, the point you make about ignoring Boro being a possible wolf tactic has merit, but not against Mac as he didn't just ignore Boro.

Long story short, not seeing any "dodgy reasoning" here. I don't trust Nerwen's vote at all, I think that she's a wolf who tried to either kill Mac or save Inzil (or possibly Mnemo... all three scenarios have interesting connotations) and I think that if Nerwen does turn out a wolf, then Brinn is also a likely wolf (because her vote looks awfully wolf-on-wolf to me).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Eomer! That's who I wanted to look at next! Considering he hasn't said anything of substance today yet...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Now, I may be wrong, but it seems to me that I would have said "whether there is a cobbler" rather than "whether we have a cobbler". Honest mistake, slip of the tongue?

I don't see the problem with that. Semantics, that's all.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

There's also Brinn's vote for Nerwen, which (granted, Brinn's not been here much due to RL to talk more about her vote) seems odd to me. I can't really recall Nerwen ever attacking Boro, rather than just disagreeing with him (there's that distinction again!).

The whole thing with Boro somehow blossomed from people simply questioning his comments regarding gifteds, to 'there's got to be a wolf in the people who responded to Boro! I still don't understand what all the fuss was about, and honestly, I don't recall anyone 'attacking' Boro over what he said, just disagreeing.

x/d with Sally, Mnemo, Nerwen, and Wilwa

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin, re: Brinn

Now, I may be wrong, but it seems to me that I would have said "whether there is a cobbler" rather than "whether we have a cobbler". Honest mistake, slip of the tongue?

I noticed the same thing and thought it a bit weird. But to build a case around it? Sounds to me like a Shasta-wolf grasping at straws.

I'm going to have a proper look at Brinn and see what there is to see, followed by a look at our resident quack and Miss Ni. Possibly Shasta as well, but I need to get some rest as I've got a long day tomorrow.


Also, where's the new kid? I've not seen him/her yet and won't rest properly until I give them a nickname. *pokes them* Sad day. Off to analysis then.