Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

You had been on her since Day 1. You pointed her out to others. You never came out and directly said you suspected her, but it's plainly there for anyone to see. Perhaps you thought that by not making direct statements you could claim that you never really suspected her at all.

No, Roa, I said I didn't strongly suspect her– not enough to vote her when it came down to it, anyway. That's all.

I did not claim in my last post that I never suspected her, and in saying that I did ("outright denying that you ever suspected her") you are seriously distorting what I did say.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Crayon, in answer to your criticism– look, I don't even know how you play the card game. We've found that in this version, at least, it's better not to rely on any one person's analysis, for a number of reasons.

In the card game, it's entirely verbal. There are no posts to go over and analyze. What someone said is entirely dependent on how well others remember it. Ergo, analysis is rather pointless. People just suspect each other. The Day and Night periods are also significantly shorter, for obvious reasons, meaning there's less time to really consider who you're voting for.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, Roa, I said I didn't strongly suspect her– not enough to vote her when it came down to it, anyway. That's all.

I did not claim in my last post that I never suspected her, and in saying that I did ("outright denying that you ever suspected her") you are seriously distorting what I did say.

By saying that you never said you were going to vote for her you imply that you had no intention of doing so. You most certainly did, right up until she was about to get lynched. And not strongly? Aside from a very mild "Oh yes, suppose Nog and Inzil look kind of suspicious too" and a brief "wilwa makes me uneasy" she was the only person you brought points against, or considered suspicious in anyway. Not strongly compared to others, but your strongest suspicion by far.

[Roa_Aoife]

It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal). Plus two people with a 50/50 of being a wolf. (Whether we get a wolf toDay or not, we should definitely start looking at those two toMorrow, as the numbers game will begin to shift away from our favor.)

Those are really good odds for us. I feel rather optimistic now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

By saying that you never said you were going to vote for her you imply that you had no intention of doing so. You most certainly did, right up until she was about to get lynched.

Sure, I thought about it. Then I decided she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch– as I've already mentioned, I also got alarmed by the way everyone was jumping in to vote her, particularly when one of those people had a 50% chance of being a wolf.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And not strongly? Aside from a very mild "Oh yes, suppose Nog and Inzil look kind of suspicious too" and a brief "wilwa makes me uneasy" she was the only person you brought points against, or considered suspicious in anyway. Not strongly compared to others, but your strongest suspicion by far.

Yes, she was my "strongest" suspicion, for what that's worth. In the end I decided that still wasn't strong enough to merit voting her, and that in the absence of a better candidate, it might be worth making sure Morsul was, in fact, the Agent.

EDIT:X'd with Roa.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Loslote

This turned into a big conflict, with Lari claiming it meant SPAM was the Agent or, *gasp*, a wolf. If Lari was a wolf, like SPAM, would they make such a big deal out of that little quote? Or were they just bickering to make it seem like they weren't at all connected?

I have been actually wondering, today, if it would be so improbable for those two to really orchestrate this suspicion-exchange... well, but then again, imagining the way it was written... Hm, I will probably read the particular posts again once more, but I don't know.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Hm. SPM's vote for her has been used as reasoning for her being innocent,
but I don't think wolf-on-wolf would be out of the question. As has been pointed out, the vote for her would have seemed safe enough, and unlikely to lead to her lynching, and would set her in a fairly positive light.

Well, that's once again one thing I have been thinking of now. Sort of, it would really serve well to SpM if he had managed to "save" Loslote for all the game by his only vote. Though, on the other hand, it really is not that much like SpM to vote a fellow Wolf on Day 1, and also, there is still time to reconsider it. I do not think I would vote for her just as yet, in any case.

Okay, but apart from those two reconsiderings,

Originally Posted by Inziladun

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy. I find the uncertainty swirling around our gifteds extremely frustrating, but if everyone else is of the mind to let the matter be for now, so be it.

No, really, if anything, I don't think it makes him look suspicions, and certainly not "highly" suspicious, as you say. I mean, what is suspicious about THAT? And I can see him reaching opposite conclusions that way, if he was thinking "on the way". And that is confirmed by what he said later:

Originally Posted by Hakon

Yes I know. The first line was the original thought that led to the last line which was the final thought.

So I have no reason to suspect him any more based on that. And once again that's what I sorta dislike about Inzil, this jumping to conclusion, you know, it looks like if he was trying to find an easy way to cast suspicion on somebody, "ha, this one can be suspected, because he contradicts himself!" But on the other hand, thinking of it, I do not think he would really do it as a Wolf. I mean, why cast a suspicion on one of the two Rangers, if one of them is his packmate - once the Rangers were eliminated, the third Wolf will be made the target. So in total, it makes me think of Inzil as innocent, actually.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Neither we, nor the wolves, can know whether the Ranger is bluffing or not. Whichever way round it is, I'm surprised the wolves didn't try for the Seer, since their Ranger-candidate can always say either, "Hey, I was bluffing" or else, "I guess they thought I was bluffing," depending on circumstances.

That's what I meant. But I was talking about the Wolves' point of view at that time when you quote it. That is, explaining what would the Wolves think, what could lead them to not kill the Rangers that Night. Which is basically also what you just said.

It's nice to see Nerwen posting, by the way, I don't know what to make of her, though, yet. Remains sort of in the gray zone for me now. Brinniel, on the other hand, looks genuine to me by her last post, and I am sort of worried about the bandwaggon forming against her. I am not going to vote her toDay, most probably.

Originally Posted by Craydon1

Now I know this is my only post today, and by most of your standards I'm not active enough, but frankly I find a lot of everyone's post without meaning and not very thought out. As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution. So before you guys start saying this makes me look somehow wolfish, you should know that....tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

Okay, that what you say in the beginning is quite nice, I would second you (this redundancy is indeed a bit annoying sometimes). But how does that lead to the revelation? I mean, I don't see why anybody would suspect you based on that what you said.
As for the revelation itself. Okay, you say you have played WW at least in the cards, right, so I can imagine the habits might be different, I can see how it could make sense to reveal there, though it's not a habit for the Hunter to reveal here, usually. The point is that now the Wolves are going to avoid killing you, as they might target you. But okay, I am sort of able to accept this. Actually, I would ask another Changed, if there is any, to counter-claim. Because then, we will definitely know if there is somebody lying in here. So actully, quite a good move.

EDIT: x-ed since wilwa 358 or something like that at the bottom of the last page

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It occurs to me that we currently have 4 knowns now (assuming we all believe Crayon, which I do, as I don't think two wolves would false reveal- it's suicidal).

Also, the Hunter's perhaps not the wisest role to impersonate.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure, I thought about it. Then I decided she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch– as I've already mentioned, I also got alarmed by the way everyone was jumping in to vote her, particularly when one of those people had a 50% chance of being a wolf.

Yes, she was my "strongest" suspicion, for what that's worth. In the end I decided that still wasn't strong enough to merit voting her, and that in the absence of a better candidate, it might be worth making sure Morsul was, in fact, the Agent.

EDIT:X'd with Roa.

If you truly believed that Morsul could be a wolf, then Wilwa only had a 1/3 chance of being a wolf.

As it is, you failed to explain this then, and now you're only coming up with it as you're being questioned. Your initial reaction was to say that never considered voting Nienna, then when presented with direct evidence to the contrary you admit it. You should have just admitted it from the start.

Edit: crossed

[Pitchwife]

Hi, I'm back. Brinn's first post toDay sounds genuine to me (and being a slow and over-polishing writer myself, I sympathize with her cross-posting problems). Cray's as well, though I don't think his reveal was the brightest thing to do. I mean, in the improbable case that the wolves would go for another no-trail-kill rather than get rid of me toNight, wouldn't it have been very convenient for us if they'd hit the Hunter and he'd taken one of them down with him? That's not very likely to happen now. On the good side, we can treat him as probably innocent for now (unless there's yet another counter-reveal), which narrows down the number of suspects.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

If you truly believed that Morsul could be a wolf, then Wilwa only had a 1/3 chance of being a wolf.

Whatever. Even by my standards, that's nitpicking.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

As it is, you failed to explain this then, and now you're only coming up with it as you're being questioned.

No, I said it earlier, too.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Your initial reaction was to say that never considered voting Nienna

*sigh*

Roa, for the last time, I did not say that. You keep saying I said it, but I didn't. She was one of the people I considered voting, but I did not, as you put it "change my mind" because I had never made it up in the first place.

This is getting frustrating.

EDIT:X'd with Pitchwife.

[Roa_Aoife]

I have to leave for church. I'm not buying Nerwen's defense. I think she's frustrated because she's a wolf and can't talk her way out of it.

++Nerwen

In your very first post you said that you never said you were going to vote for Nienna. That statement implies that you were never considering it, which is a clear lie. Your posts at the end of Day 2, when you said you were discounting Nienna and were no longer sure of who to vote for make it clear that she was your top candidate. By your own admission, you changed your mind because she was going to get lynched. So try to wiggle all you can, your own words have trapped you.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

That whole thing really bugs me. I mean it's not completely unlikely that an ordo would reveal in order to protect a gifted, but Morsul doesn't do it in a way that could really be useful, and for a new player to try something like that as an ord, that seems unlikely. Maybe if it was someone who's played alot and could pull it off better, but I don't think that's the case here and I really don't see how Brinn could find that possible.

I know this is flimsy, and trust me that's driving me nuts, but I don't have anything concrete on anyone and this just stuck out to me. If I manage to still be alive tomorrow and Brinn is too I'll look more closely at her but for now I really just have to vote and this is all that stood out for me. Sorry.

++Brinn

Really have to run now, big rush. Good luck!!

Okay, I really don't think this would be a wise way of voting, like I said, and what Brinn said does not seem to me as a case good enough for suspicion, but then, the way wilwa posts her vote ("I know that it's flimsy"), and seemingly in rush, it is explainable, so I am not necessarily adding that to the pile of things for which I would find her suspicious. Of course I hope it isn't just a cover-up for a vote, but then, somehow the concern looks genuine to me.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Those are really good odds for us. I feel rather optimistic now.

Well, me too. Let's just not get too much at ease, though I think we don't need to be afraid of that now. I just hope you are not the Wolf. But, speaking of that, concerning that Roa-Nerwen exchange now, hard to say, but: Roa, it seems to me that you are slightly becoming your "over-the-top" self, a bit like what you did for example with suspecting me during the last game. I know that it can happen to you and I can see where your points are coming from, but maybe just try to calm down and try to look at everything with a sober eye. Because even an innocent can have slightly inconsistent posts, in some ways, as nobody can write down completely all the thoughts that fly through his head. However, that is a reason for me to think you innocent. Because it looks like this kind of innocent zeal. Anyway, what I said has nothing to do with my views of Nerwen's posts (that is, I am not saying that Roa may not be right, even though she is a bit zealous here).

EDIT: x-ed witch Pitchwife of Dunwich <= haha, a typo, I am leaving it there - and further on

[Nerwen]

Fine, vote me then.

I hope anyone who is being swayed by Roa will actually check out my post (#351) where I supposedly told all these "lies", and note that I didn't.

I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, basically, of all the people, whom I could vote for toDay, after eliminating those I have eliminated in my earlier posts toDay, it's either Lari or Nerwen for me to vote toDay. That sounds quite good, to choose just from two people. Let's see if I have time to check the posts of both of them.

I can also check the votes this far, for that matter. If I have time now, let's see.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

However, that is a reason for me to think you innocent. Because it looks like this kind of innocent zeal.

I agree. I think she's unlikely to be a wolf, which is what's really annoying about this.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person.

That is indeed what I think she is "thinking", sort of. Or something along these lines. However, well, like I said.

Anyway, let's see what now.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen. Yup.

[Nerwen]

By the way, Roa, since you have made direct statements about what I said which are demonstrably false, I should say that if either of us is "lying", it's you.

Anyway– leaving aside the gifted claimants and the known innocent, we have (from my point of view):

Inziladun
Loslote
Roa
Legate
Lairen Shadow
Brinn

So it's either Wolflote stumbling through her cubhood, or it's Roa Awolfe getting over confident, or it's Inzilawolf being a little too slick for his own good, or it's somebody else very sneaky indeed.

I keep thinking that the "why didn't they kill the Seer?" business ought to shed some light on this... as I said, the wolves really should have tried for the Seer last Night; why didn't they?

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Pitchwife]

Votes so far:
Hakon -> wilwa
Lottie -> Brinn
Cray -> Inzil
wilwa -> Brinn (2)
Roa -> Nerwen
Two votes for Brinn. First from Lottie, whom I have the most doubts about at the moment, second from wilwa, who is a wolf if she isn't the Priest. Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Craydon1

So the person I'm currently the most focused on is probably Inzil. It would seem to me that he pops up to give mostly empty post that are worded in a manner that comes off as supportive, but not. I really can't tell who he actually supports and who he's truly going after and that sort of person is going to either be 1) a wolf or 2) soon to be eaten by a wolf.

Now I know this is my only post today, and by most of your standards I'm not active enough, but frankly I find a lot of everyone's post without meaning and not very thought out. As for the analysis, they seem to be very redundant. If you agree with the previous novel long post, just say "ditto" and move on. Maybe make a few changes when you disagree with something. Keep in mind this is just my opinion, and while this is the first time playing with you good folks (and don't get me wrong, this is fun) I've played the card game for years. I guess I just follow
the philosophy of just saying something when it is a honest contribution. So before you guys start saying this makes me look somehow wolfish, you should know that....tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

First off, I don't see any cause to disbelieve your reveal, though I find your reasoning a bit flawed. You defend your 'submarine' tendencies (making good points while doing so) but then feel you must reveal as a gifted to further justify them? You state your main rationale for suspecting me is that I don't say much in my posts, but then you say many of our posts are 'without meaning and not very thought out'. So why single me out? I'll give you points for consistency, at least, since this is the second time you've voted for me.

I found the interchange between Roa and Nerwen interesting. I don't know Roa that well, but I did find her zeal a bit disconcerting, though she made some good points. She seems to put a lot of stock into reading into Nerwen's 'implications', though, and implications are a pretty subjective thing to try and glean.
Of the two of them, it's hard to say who I trust more. I might lean toward Nerwen somewhat at the moment.

My early feeling about Legate has pretty much dissipated, and now I don't have a read on him one way or the other. I'll have to pay more attantion to him, though.

Brinn's defense against Loslote could go either way: as a wolf's overly defensive reaction, or an innocent's honest frustration. I don't think I'll vote for her toDay, but she will bear some watching.

Which leads me back to Loslote. Her analysis of Brinn didn't help her in my eyes. It did appear that she took a lot of Brinn's words and turned them a bit, and she keeps saying Brinn finds everyone 'paranoid', when I at least thought that first post of Brinn's plainly tongue-in-cheek.

That said, Loslote is probably my vote today.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Two votes for Brinn. First from Lottie, whom I have the most doubts about at the moment, second from wilwa, who is a wolf if she isn't the Priest. Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

It could be, yes. I'd like to hear from Lottie. If her vote for Brinn was really only based on her own analysis of Brinn's post– in which she made a number of serious and obvious misrepresentations– than it's a pretty suspicious vote. And her other posts have been a whole lot of nothing... it could be either newbieishness or newbiewolfishness.

Mind you, Brinn has been under the radar, as usual, and she can be one sneaky wolf. However, while Wilwa might have cause to be paranoid about her, I doubt Lottie knows her reputation.

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

EDIT:X'd with Inziladun.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

Well, Hakon to me is completely unpredictable, so who knows what he would do?
I would think a Wolfwa probably wouldn't have though.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

(x-ed w/ Zil)

[Nogrod]

Sorry... I've spent my day filing my papers and planning the courses and immersed in it so totally I actually forgot the DL is within an hour...

Well, I'll catch up with the latest (I popped in to read some of the posts at noon) and try to make my best then. The Roalysis may not be forthcoming toDay but I might have a chance for it toMorrow... what the wolves decide that is. (and we'd really need a Legatelysis as well... )

*delves into to the thread*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

And Zil here was the the last surviving wolf in his first game, and he did make it.

That's not the point. I don't think the wolves in either of those games took a drastic step that was almost calculated to leave the newbie as the last survivor. It just turned out that way.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nerwen]

(Still responding to Pitchwife)

However, that's also a good point, in that they might have thought, "Well, it's worked before..."

[Nogrod]

Sorry, but I'm going to send them as I read... So no structure but just points I notice while I go over the posts...

Originally Posted by Roa on Nerwen

I really, really don't like the way she built up the suspicion of Nienna through out the Day, only to drop it at the last second and vote for someone who had NO chance of getting lynched.

That is a good point even if I still think her choice was not a deliberate one having "NO chance of getting lynched". Of the late voters yesterDay I think her vote was the only one that had even a slight chance of producing a result other than me or Nienna (Morsul had one vote already and his lynching had been discussed as a possible way out of a tricky situation - and Nerwen had voiced that alfeady earlier if my memory serves me right). So the question becomes "how strongly Nerwen was for lynching Nienna before the last moments; was she just asking her questions or was she suspecting her enough to lynch her?

Originally Posted by Inzil

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy.

I could agree with you here - unless there was a real chance you were the last wolf with Hakon - and that would be like quite understandable comment you could make then...

[Lariren Shadow]

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? Revealing as the Changed/Hunter is not something that they really want to broadcast, at least I didn't when I was the Hunter. Especially in this game where I think, if I read correctly, the Changed takes someone with them no matter what their role is. It becomes a boon for the wolves because they get to kill two innocents instead of one if they are going to play the risky game of "maybe he's not hunting one of us".

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws. I was just looking for something suspicious on Day 1, see if the wolves slipped, and well I guess SPM did. I think a Legate analysis is in order for toMorrow.

Brinn's response to Lottie(is that ok for a nickname?) seems rather innocent to me. She just got feed up with the bad claims and wanted to make it right. I don't see that as really guilty, especially with the tone she uses.

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

And what of our Rangers? I still really don't like Hakon, I don't like how he makes bold statements then reasons them away without changing them. Why state that Morsul is a wolf in the first sentence only to change it your opinion by the end? I'm beginning to think this is a wolf trying to somehow protect his Agent or a wolf protecting his packmate. Either way I think Hakon is the liar.

So, before I run off,

++Hakon

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa on Brinn's late vote for Inzil

Nogrod finds her vote suspicious, but I get the feeling it's because she didn't vote in a manner to save him or Nienna, and with out the knowledge we have now, I don't see why she should.

I see it as a question of "washing one's hands" from the immediate choice - oftentimes wolvish behaviour as they don't want to be caught fresh from lynching innocents... so a safe-vote and not taking interest of which one of us dies: being happy with as a wolf or too unsure as innocent? I can see both options to be real.

Nerwen makes some sense in refuting some of Roa's analysis as I think Roa did exaggerate with the "case". But that's a tough one to call. I don't think Nerwen ever "downright denied" having suspected Nienna so the question still is over how serious she were and what were her motives in the change of target...

Brinn's more heated defence over Loslote's analysis looks quite credible indeed. Or then it's just the wolf-nerves...


Why are you voting for Hakon, Lari???

[Pitchwife]

I think toMorrow will be time to start sorting out our Priest claimants. Based on what they've said about their protections up to now, and assuming they told the truth:

• I'm killed -> Hakon is the Priest (he said he'd protect me last Night), wilwa is a wolf;
• I'm saved -> Hakon is a wolf, wilwa is the Priest (she said she couldn't protect me last Night, but would toNight);
• I'm left alone -> wolves deserve what's coming to them.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

Well, I am not sure if it will be wise for the two remaning WWs to both vote for the same person in the way that they will start a bandwagon. But anything is possible, of course.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

First off, I don't see any cause to disbelieve your reveal, though I find your reasoning a bit flawed. You defend your 'submarine' tendencies (making good points while doing so) but then feel you must reveal as a gifted to further justify them? You state your main rationale for suspecting me is that I don't say much in my posts, but then you say many of our posts are 'without meaning and not very thought out'. So why single me out? I'll give you points for consistency, at least, since this is the second time you've voted for me.

Hmm, once again I was wondering here, on first reading once again disliking Inzil's way of "suspecting" people, but then again, on second thought, it is really like an innocent asking questions. I am really starting to feel a lot better about him.

I found the interchange between Roa and Nerwen interesting. I don't know Roa that well, but I did find her zeal a bit disconcerting, though she made some good points. She seems to put a lot of stock into reading into Nerwen's 'implications', though, and implications are a pretty subjective thing to try and glean.

Roa indeed is like that often when innocent. The zeal is disconcerting, that is true, but it is not a sign of wolvery. It's a problem of a different sort.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It could be, yes. I'd like to hear from Lottie. If her vote for Brinn was really only based on her own analysis of Brinn's post– in which she made a number of serious and obvious misrepresentations– than it's a pretty suspicious vote. And her other posts have been a whole lot of nothing... it could be either newbieishness or newbiewolfishness.

Hm, well, I am wondering about Loslote, starting to doubt her a bit more, true. But not sure if I would be voting her, not yet, maybe, like I said before.

Mind you, Brinn has been under the radar, as usual, and she can be one sneaky wolf. However, while Wilwa might have cause to be paranoid about her, I doubt Lottie knows her reputation.

That would be interesting to know, what Lottie thinks of her in general... I mean, as about a player in general... Though of course now she could say whatever she thinks.

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

I guess it is possible, as well as anything. Of course maybe not the most clever, but even a newbie could slip by, and I know many times the WWs not planned, but were forced to do it so - because simply all the "veteran" Wolves were caught earlier - and the newbie, because of being relatively a newbie, managed to slip through all the game, or through a large part of it. And we have even heard about several examples above.

I did not get the chance, alas, to properly re-read neither Nerwen's or Lari's posts. Not sure what to do. If Loslote is going to be lynched, I would not oppose it, probably, as I think there is a distinct chance that she could be the Wolf, but I am not going to vote her, most likely. Okay, I will really try to reread something and then see.

EDIT: x-ed with Lari and onwards

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? Revealing as the Changed/Hunter is not something that they really want to broadcast, at least I didn't when I was the Hunter. Especially in this game where I think, if I read correctly, the Changed takes someone with them no matter what their role is. It becomes a boon for the wolves because they get to kill two innocents instead of one if they are going to play the risky game of "maybe he's not hunting one of us".

I don't know why Crayon choose to reveal when he did either– but it would be a very risky move for a wolf (especially in the current situation).

A wolf who reveals as the Hunter also reveals to the Hunter, if you see what I mean. Then there's no "maybe" about who the Hunter targets.

Crayon says he's only played the card game before, but I imagine that aspect would be the same.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

Just fed up.

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?

EDIT:X'd since Lari.

[Brinniel]

Hmm...another reveal. You know, one of the points about being gifted is to stay hidden. If Hakon is the true ranger, that means all three of our gifteds revealed unprompted, which is a bit insane. Anyway, I'll believe Cray so long as there is no counter-reveal, and I doubt there will be.

I'm hoping that Legate is in fact innocent, as nothing he's said so far sounds the slightest bit suspicious to me. He seems genuine so far, so for now I'll say he's innocentish, though I won't go as far as to trust him or anyone for that matter unless they're known innocents.

As for our two rangers, I'm really stuck in between as to which one is the real one since both have done some suspicious stuff. Again I'm leaving them both alone hoping it'll sort itself out. But if it doesn't soon, we may just have to do something about it. Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

Inzil isn't off my suspect list, though I'm still uncertain about him. However toDay he seems to be fairly neutral on some issues, or at least he has been in his recent posts. Not completely taking one side or the other is an easy move for a wolf...though of course it's not unknown for innocents to do that too.

But right now I'm more concerned about Loslote, whose analysis I still can't shake off. I just have trouble seeing how any honest player could come up with such a skewed analysis. It makes me very concerned about her. The only reason I'm slightly hesitant is because of Spm's case and vote against her on Day One. Though it would be a mistake to completely eliminate her as a possible wolf for that reason since a wolf-on-wolf vote on Day One is certainly not unheard of. I wish I could hear from her again toDay, but unfortunately that won't be happening since she'll still be asleep at deadline.

EDIT: x-ed with several posts

[Nogrod]

Okay, I finally made it.

Roa looks a bit over the top and I wouldn't lynch Nerwen toDay based on that. That doesn't mean I think Nerwen has to be innocent though.

I might echo Legate in not being against lynching Loslote as her posting looks so hard to follow at times. She could distract us more than help if we have to think about it all the time whether she's just not able to read what others say or is intentionally twisting things to make her arguments... And she coulsd well be the wolf as well as any other. (heh, nice to be a known innocent to finally be able to say this kind of a thing which would have gotten me lynched in another situation... )

And some of her posts sure look suspicious... like the posts of many others...

[Inziladun]

Right, then.

++ Loslote

My best guess at this point.

x'd with Brinn and Nog

[Pitchwife]

DL approaching... might as well get this over with.
++Loslote
Not for any seerish reasons, obviously, and it may be tunnel vision on my part, but she's still the one I feel most uncomfortable about, mostly because of her votes based on clear misrepresentations in the cases of Nog and Brinn.

(x-ed w/ Nerwen #391 etc.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal?

Because if somebody counter-claimed, we would catch the last Wolf, and this way, we know one more innocent and won't lynch him. Are you genuinely confused or are you just trying to make us doubt him? It bothers me, things like this, but I would find it weird if a Wolf was doing this, because it cannot help him - I mean, if there is no counter-claim, then we know we can trust Crayon. Though a Wolf who is not thinking that far (just as well as innocent who is not thinking that far to recognise what good sides it could have for Crayon to reveal) could still say that.

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws.

Not ONLY from that, of course. Quite the contrary, that was the thing that originally made me think you are innocent, and later I started to wonder if it can be also the other way around. I was slightly disconcerted by your posting and behavior overall and watching you. This is only the last, as you say, straw.

Okay, it would really help me to make a better picture of Lari if I knew how much she actually is really around and has time to properly absorb what's happening on the thread and how much is intentional misinterpretation of stuff (that goes for both of the above quotes, for example). I sort of don't like her approach to the disputes of Brinn or Roa etc., as it looks somehow too "balanced", like, this reserved attitude a Wolf could have to strike to one of the parties, if need be.
Also, her vote for Hakon is undeniably "safe". Let us remember that we have seemingly a last Wolf somewhere in the field and the RangerWolf. It is far too easy to cast a vote for one of the Rangers and not worry about anything else. (That's also what Hakon did.) Though then again, would a Wolf do such a thing? Isn't it too much obviously sticking out of the crowd by giving an obvious throwaway vote?

Not much time. I guess I cannot reread like I wanted. I may vote Lari. But let's see if, or more likely what, did I crosspost with...

EDIT: of course x-ed since my last. Okay, let's see.

[Brinniel]

Pitchwife, if you are killed, I will not assume one way or another about the rangers. Because the real ranger could've easily bluffed at some point. wilwa said she protected you the Night before, but she might've said that so the wolves would try to kill you the next Night only to be protected. And in the same way, just because Hakon said he'd protect you last Night doesn't mean he did. If he thought the wolves wouldn't risk it, he could've made a bluff and protected someone else. Really there's no way to know who the real ranger is until one is dead.

[Pitchwife]

Hence my assuming they told the truth.

[Nogrod]

And we should probably solve the "ranger mystery" toMorrow...

I don't want to see Roa, Legate, Brinn or Nerwen lynched toDay as they can make sense - and be caught form their words.

Also we should not touch Hakon, wilwa or Morsul

Leaving Pitchie out as well... and Crayon, I'd have:

Loslote
Inzil
Lari

To choose from.

Inzil is the hard one as there are things both ways with him.

There's the Lari - wilwa connection I spotted on Day1 and have not totally forgotten. Also Lari's vote toDay was odd indeed (whatever that might then mean).

With Loslote I'm just mostly worried. She might be a distracted innocent to be sure but it is very hard to get a read on her odd analysis / reasonings - which feel malicious at worst.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?

Interesting note, of course could be just bad wording, but could be a nice slip. Could as well give it a try to lynch Lari, really, also with this. Though it looks like Loslote is going for the gallows now.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

I agree with that it seems to show that he is more likely the Agent. Of course it would be bad if he was a Wolf, but one bright side is, if Morsul does not appear at all, he will be eventually modfired.

EDIT: x-ed since my last. Btw can anybody give a vote count anyway?