Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

(x-ed w/ Zil)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

And Zil here was the the last surviving wolf in his first game, and he did make it.

That's not the point. I don't think the wolves in either of those games took a drastic step that was almost calculated to leave the newbie as the last survivor. It just turned out that way.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nerwen]

(Still responding to Pitchwife)

However, that's also a good point, in that they might have thought, "Well, it's worked before..."

[Lariren Shadow]

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? Revealing as the Changed/Hunter is not something that they really want to broadcast, at least I didn't when I was the Hunter. Especially in this game where I think, if I read correctly, the Changed takes someone with them no matter what their role is. It becomes a boon for the wolves because they get to kill two innocents instead of one if they are going to play the risky game of "maybe he's not hunting one of us".

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws. I was just looking for something suspicious on Day 1, see if the wolves slipped, and well I guess SPM did. I think a Legate analysis is in order for toMorrow.

Brinn's response to Lottie(is that ok for a nickname?) seems rather innocent to me. She just got feed up with the bad claims and wanted to make it right. I don't see that as really guilty, especially with the tone she uses.

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

And what of our Rangers? I still really don't like Hakon, I don't like how he makes bold statements then reasons them away without changing them. Why state that Morsul is a wolf in the first sentence only to change it your opinion by the end? I'm beginning to think this is a wolf trying to somehow protect his Agent or a wolf protecting his packmate. Either way I think Hakon is the liar.

So, before I run off,

++Hakon

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? Revealing as the Changed/Hunter is not something that they really want to broadcast, at least I didn't when I was the Hunter. Especially in this game where I think, if I read correctly, the Changed takes someone with them no matter what their role is. It becomes a boon for the wolves because they get to kill two innocents instead of one if they are going to play the risky game of "maybe he's not hunting one of us".

I don't know why Crayon choose to reveal when he did either– but it would be a very risky move for a wolf (especially in the current situation).

A wolf who reveals as the Hunter also reveals to the Hunter, if you see what I mean. Then there's no "maybe" about who the Hunter targets.

Crayon says he's only played the card game before, but I imagine that aspect would be the same.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

Just fed up.

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?

EDIT:X'd since Lari.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal?

Because if somebody counter-claimed, we would catch the last Wolf, and this way, we know one more innocent and won't lynch him. Are you genuinely confused or are you just trying to make us doubt him? It bothers me, things like this, but I would find it weird if a Wolf was doing this, because it cannot help him - I mean, if there is no counter-claim, then we know we can trust Crayon. Though a Wolf who is not thinking that far (just as well as innocent who is not thinking that far to recognise what good sides it could have for Crayon to reveal) could still say that.

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws.

Not ONLY from that, of course. Quite the contrary, that was the thing that originally made me think you are innocent, and later I started to wonder if it can be also the other way around. I was slightly disconcerted by your posting and behavior overall and watching you. This is only the last, as you say, straw.

Okay, it would really help me to make a better picture of Lari if I knew how much she actually is really around and has time to properly absorb what's happening on the thread and how much is intentional misinterpretation of stuff (that goes for both of the above quotes, for example). I sort of don't like her approach to the disputes of Brinn or Roa etc., as it looks somehow too "balanced", like, this reserved attitude a Wolf could have to strike to one of the parties, if need be.
Also, her vote for Hakon is undeniably "safe". Let us remember that we have seemingly a last Wolf somewhere in the field and the RangerWolf. It is far too easy to cast a vote for one of the Rangers and not worry about anything else. (That's also what Hakon did.) Though then again, would a Wolf do such a thing? Isn't it too much obviously sticking out of the crowd by giving an obvious throwaway vote?

Not much time. I guess I cannot reread like I wanted. I may vote Lari. But let's see if, or more likely what, did I crosspost with...

EDIT: of course x-ed since my last. Okay, let's see.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?

Interesting note, of course could be just bad wording, but could be a nice slip. Could as well give it a try to lynch Lari, really, also with this. Though it looks like Loslote is going for the gallows now.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

I agree with that it seems to show that he is more likely the Agent. Of course it would be bad if he was a Wolf, but one bright side is, if Morsul does not appear at all, he will be eventually modfired.

EDIT: x-ed since my last. Btw can anybody give a vote count anyway?

[Brinniel]

Hmm...another reveal. You know, one of the points about being gifted is to stay hidden. If Hakon is the true ranger, that means all three of our gifteds revealed unprompted, which is a bit insane. Anyway, I'll believe Cray so long as there is no counter-reveal, and I doubt there will be.

I'm hoping that Legate is in fact innocent, as nothing he's said so far sounds the slightest bit suspicious to me. He seems genuine so far, so for now I'll say he's innocentish, though I won't go as far as to trust him or anyone for that matter unless they're known innocents.

As for our two rangers, I'm really stuck in between as to which one is the real one since both have done some suspicious stuff. Again I'm leaving them both alone hoping it'll sort itself out. But if it doesn't soon, we may just have to do something about it. Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

Inzil isn't off my suspect list, though I'm still uncertain about him. However toDay he seems to be fairly neutral on some issues, or at least he has been in his recent posts. Not completely taking one side or the other is an easy move for a wolf...though of course it's not unknown for innocents to do that too.

But right now I'm more concerned about Loslote, whose analysis I still can't shake off. I just have trouble seeing how any honest player could come up with such a skewed analysis. It makes me very concerned about her. The only reason I'm slightly hesitant is because of Spm's case and vote against her on Day One. Though it would be a mistake to completely eliminate her as a possible wolf for that reason since a wolf-on-wolf vote on Day One is certainly not unheard of. I wish I could hear from her again toDay, but unfortunately that won't be happening since she'll still be asleep at deadline.

EDIT: x-ed with several posts