Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Nerwen]

Fine, vote me then.

I hope anyone who is being swayed by Roa will actually check out my post (#351) where I supposedly told all these "lies", and note that I didn't.

I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person.

EDIT:X'd with Legate.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I honestly don't understand where Roa's coming from. She seems to believe that once you raise enough points against another player, you are then committed to voting that person.

That is indeed what I think she is "thinking", sort of. Or something along these lines. However, well, like I said.

Anyway, let's see what now.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen. Yup.

[Pitchwife]

Votes so far:
Hakon -> wilwa
Lottie -> Brinn
Cray -> Inzil
wilwa -> Brinn (2)
Roa -> Nerwen
Two votes for Brinn. First from Lottie, whom I have the most doubts about at the moment, second from wilwa, who is a wolf if she isn't the Priest. Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Two votes for Brinn. First from Lottie, whom I have the most doubts about at the moment, second from wilwa, who is a wolf if she isn't the Priest. Is it just me, or does anybody else think this could be two wolves trying to start a bandwagon?

It could be, yes. I'd like to hear from Lottie. If her vote for Brinn was really only based on her own analysis of Brinn's post– in which she made a number of serious and obvious misrepresentations– than it's a pretty suspicious vote. And her other posts have been a whole lot of nothing... it could be either newbieishness or newbiewolfishness.

Mind you, Brinn has been under the radar, as usual, and she can be one sneaky wolf. However, while Wilwa might have cause to be paranoid about her, I doubt Lottie knows her reputation.

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

EDIT:X'd with Inziladun.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

Well, Hakon to me is completely unpredictable, so who knows what he would do?
I would think a Wolfwa probably wouldn't have though.

[Nogrod]

Sorry... I've spent my day filing my papers and planning the courses and immersed in it so totally I actually forgot the DL is within an hour...

Well, I'll catch up with the latest (I popped in to read some of the posts at noon) and try to make my best then. The Roalysis may not be forthcoming toDay but I might have a chance for it toMorrow... what the wolves decide that is. (and we'd really need a Legatelysis as well... )

*delves into to the thread*

[Nogrod]

Sorry, but I'm going to send them as I read... So no structure but just points I notice while I go over the posts...

Originally Posted by Roa on Nerwen

I really, really don't like the way she built up the suspicion of Nienna through out the Day, only to drop it at the last second and vote for someone who had NO chance of getting lynched.

That is a good point even if I still think her choice was not a deliberate one having "NO chance of getting lynched". Of the late voters yesterDay I think her vote was the only one that had even a slight chance of producing a result other than me or Nienna (Morsul had one vote already and his lynching had been discussed as a possible way out of a tricky situation - and Nerwen had voiced that alfeady earlier if my memory serves me right). So the question becomes "how strongly Nerwen was for lynching Nienna before the last moments; was she just asking her questions or was she suspecting her enough to lynch her?

Originally Posted by Inzil

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy.

I could agree with you here - unless there was a real chance you were the last wolf with Hakon - and that would be like quite understandable comment you could make then...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But here's a thing to consider: would the false Ranger (whichever it is) have revealed at all, knowing that if he or she got lynched, the remaining wolf would be a newbie who had only played one game before?

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

(x-ed w/ Zil)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If it's Hakon, who knows? If it's wilwa, probably rather not - so good point.
On the other hand, I remember Nessa Wolfrunya being the last surviving wolf in her second game or so and almost making it, so there've been precedents.

And Zil here was the the last surviving wolf in his first game, and he did make it.

That's not the point. I don't think the wolves in either of those games took a drastic step that was almost calculated to leave the newbie as the last survivor. It just turned out that way.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nerwen]

(Still responding to Pitchwife)

However, that's also a good point, in that they might have thought, "Well, it's worked before..."

[Brinniel]

Hmm...another reveal. You know, one of the points about being gifted is to stay hidden. If Hakon is the true ranger, that means all three of our gifteds revealed unprompted, which is a bit insane. Anyway, I'll believe Cray so long as there is no counter-reveal, and I doubt there will be.

I'm hoping that Legate is in fact innocent, as nothing he's said so far sounds the slightest bit suspicious to me. He seems genuine so far, so for now I'll say he's innocentish, though I won't go as far as to trust him or anyone for that matter unless they're known innocents.

As for our two rangers, I'm really stuck in between as to which one is the real one since both have done some suspicious stuff. Again I'm leaving them both alone hoping it'll sort itself out. But if it doesn't soon, we may just have to do something about it. Also, I'm thinking Morsul is most likely the agent, not just for his actions yesterDay, but because he hasn't shown up toDay which indicates maybe he's given up and I have trouble seeing a wolf do that. Though I don't like how some are ruling out any possibility of lynching him in the future, because in the off-chance he is actually a wolf, I'd hate to let the wolves win in that way because we made an assumption.

Inzil isn't off my suspect list, though I'm still uncertain about him. However toDay he seems to be fairly neutral on some issues, or at least he has been in his recent posts. Not completely taking one side or the other is an easy move for a wolf...though of course it's not unknown for innocents to do that too.

But right now I'm more concerned about Loslote, whose analysis I still can't shake off. I just have trouble seeing how any honest player could come up with such a skewed analysis. It makes me very concerned about her. The only reason I'm slightly hesitant is because of Spm's case and vote against her on Day One. Though it would be a mistake to completely eliminate her as a possible wolf for that reason since a wolf-on-wolf vote on Day One is certainly not unheard of. I wish I could hear from her again toDay, but unfortunately that won't be happening since she'll still be asleep at deadline.

EDIT: x-ed with several posts