Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Okay, I actually agree somewhat with Wilwa: The wolves could easily just leave the seer and the ranger alive tonight to continue the charade tomorrow. They're stuck with it now since one of them has pulled this move. They may gamble and try to continue.

Not if they're smart, they won't. There's a way out of that one– which obviously I am not going to explain now, in case they haven't thought of it.

I'm just saying , I don't think we can be at all sure what the wolves are going to do toNight.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It would be incredibly risky on their parts, but they've already come out with a false reveal which is always risky.

I think that this whole plan points to inexperienced though not necessarily new players. They had the advantage until they drew the spotlight onto themselves with a false reveal. Someone who has tried that or seen it tried would know how dangerous that is.

But neither of the two is a new player, not really, so what's your point? Or are you talking about the unknown third wolf as well? I don't think we can draw any conclusions about that party, since I doubt the reveal was planned.

The big question is, why reveal? What does it get them?

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

This also makes me less suspicious of Nogrod, as I don't think he would ever suggest to his fellow wolf to try this.

If the wolf's Hakon, he would have done it anyway.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Not if they're smart, they won't. There's a way out of that one– which obviously I am not going to explain now, in case they haven't thought of it.

I'm just saying , I don't think we can be at all sure what the wolves are going to do toNight.

Which is exactly what I was saying- we don't know what they will do toNight. So assuming that the kill will completely settle our question of the ranger's identity is faulty and leads us into a trap that the wolves can easily use. Which was my point.

But neither of the two is a new player, not really, so what's your point? Or are you talking about the unknown third wolf as well? I don't think we can draw any conclusions about that party, since I doubt the reveal was planned.

I'm not 100% on the idea, but it seems more likely. Of the mess, I've only played with Wilwa before my long absence, so I have no idea about the rest and the experience as players.

The big question is, why reveal? What does it get them?

A very confused village, for one. The possibility of a lynched gifted, for two. Depending on which of our two rangers is the real one, possibly the identity of the ranger. (Which only works if Wilwa is the real ranger, and I'm leaning towards Hakon at the moment.)

If the wolf's Hakon, he would have done it anyway.

If this wasn't planned, then I imagine the third wolf is panicking right now.

Edit: Crossed with Brinn down

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I'll try to get through Inzil in a hurry, since DL is approaching.

[wilwarin538]

OK, so my friday class has been moved up (really dumb prof) so I have to leave way sooner then I expected. Therefore I have to vote now.

Honestly, I've been so focused on all these reveals I've barely looked at anyone else, but one thing that stuck out was how Nienna claimed that Nerwen was "closed minded" about Morsul. That just doesn't make much sense to me. I know that's flimsy, but I just don't have the time I expected to have to look closer at other people. Uh, this sucks.

++Nienna

So I'm sure I'll still be here tomorrow, I can't see the wolves killing me and leaving HakonWolf out in the open like that. I really hope Pitch that you don't waste your dream on one of us, like I explained before.

Good luck everyone! Sorry I couldn't stick around like I promised.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

A very confused village, for one. The possibility of a lynched gifted, for two. Depending on which of our two rangers is the real one, possibly the identity of the ranger. (Which only works if Wilwa is the real ranger, and I'm leaning towards Hakon at the moment.)

This is the problem: indeed a Hakonwolf would have considerably more motive for making a false reveal than a Wolfwarin, just because of the order in which the reveals happened. But Wilwarin's argument about why she, Pitch and Hakon will surely be alive tomorrow bugs me. Not that her reasoning is unsound– but the thing is, a Wolfwarin would need to make an argument like that, since if Hakon's telling the truth, the wolves can't kill the Seer toNight, whereas if it's Wilwa they can if they choose to. And, of course, she'd want to avoid being dreamed.

On the other hand, she could be trying to convince the wolves they should refrain from killing her or the Dreamer.

EDIT:X'd with a host.

[Inziladun]

Hakon --> Wilwa
Morsul --> Hakon
Craydon --> Morsul
Nienna --> Nog
Wilwa --> Nienna
Loslote --> Nog (2)
Lari --> Nienna (2)

x'd with Lari

[Roa_Aoife]

Inzil

Day 1

Post 1- In character

Post 2- Agrees with Greenie.

Post 3- Banter

First 3 post have no substance. Not necessarily wolvish, but slightly annoying.

Post 4- Thinks Nogrod and SPM were over-reacting to Pitchwife's words

Well, they were.

Post 5- Banter with Crayon

Post 6- Says Day 1 isn't completely random but a voting record is helpful

Six posts in and only one had any meaning, which was slight and not pursued.

Post 7- Response to Hakon's vote and comment about SPM

Very calm, but then Nienna was getting in trouble for not being calm about Morsul's vote

Post 8- Agrees with SPM's suspicion of Loslote, thinks Loslote is grasping onto SPM suspicion of Pitch, Thinks Nienna is suspicious, doesn't want to go for Hakon toDay

He suspects Loslote for following SPM's suspicions, but isn't that what he himself is doing?

Post 9- Thinks that Pitch's vote looks bandwagony

I thought so to, so I can hardly hold that against him.

Post 10- Tells Pitch his reveal was premature

Post 11- Votes SPM

Post 12- Says Pitch could be the Agent but it's better to go with it for now

Post 13- Reiterates that we should see what happens

I can't get anything from the vote, nor any of his posts past Pitch's reveal. He makes a lot of posts, and only a few have anything worth commenting on.

Day 2

Post 1- Is sure that Pitch is the true seer. Decides to check out Greenie.

Post 2- Says that Greenie was no trail kill

Post 3- Response to Nienna, restates his suspicion of Loslote

Post 4- Response to Hakon, tells him to protect Pitch and tells him he shouldn't have revealed

Pretty standard, very little to comment on these first four posts

Post 5- Asks who Morsul dreamed of besides him.

Post 6- Wish's Roa luck with analysis

Um, Thank you?

Post 7- Tells Morsul that he has trouble believing him and explains why the scenario doesn't work.

People are using this as evidence against him, but they are ignoring the very first sentence. Inzil in no way supports Morsul as seer, but instead shows why Pitch can't be a wolf. I take his last comment as sarcasm, not a declaration of innocense.

Post 8- Thinks Hakon is more likely to be a fraud

I can see his reasoning, though I don't agree with it.

Post 9- Wonders is Morsul is the Agent or a wolf.

Post 10- Thinks Hakon and Morsul are the wolf and agent. Thinks Roa's analysis on Nogrod was good. Seems to ask what other people think of Nog.

It looks like Inzil is jumping on my analysis and trying to stir up people to go with it. Or it could be that I'm freaking out because someone is actually using my analysis for once instead of saying, "Roa sounds reasonable, but she can so tricksy, let's not listen to her." It's throwing me off.

Post 11- Thinks Wilwa's logic is flawed, continues with suspicion of Nog, continues with suspicion of Loslote, Thinks Nerwen, Roa, Brinn, Lari, and Crayon are innocent, doesn't have a read on Kitanna, thinks something is off about Legate, is most suspicious of Nienna due to her reaction to Morsul, her vote for Pitch, and her comments about Morsul's reveal

Well this is the first of Nienna, aside from a small note on Day 1 which was little more than agreeing with Legate. I want to see an elaboration of his points.

Post 12- Response to Brinniel

I can't fault him on that- I think Brinniel and Legate are taking what he said out of context.

Post 13- Doesn't like Wilwa's or Loslote's votes. Has doubts about Wilwa now

His suspicion of Loslote is at least consistent.

Post 14- vote count

I can't get a good read on him. He talks alot but he doesn't say much. Most of his suspicions seem to come from other people first, which is what he suspects Loslote for.


Also, I'm interested in why Morsul picked him for his false reveal. He only picked me after he was asked. So Morsul, if it's not too much trouble, why start with Inzil as your revealed innocent?

[Inziladun]

I'm pretty much out of time here.

Wilwa's reasoning for Nienna struck me as suspicious, since she used almost the same wording as in my post. I was going to vote for Nienna myself, though.

Blast.

++ Nienna

And may I be right.

[Nerwen]

And you see, I'm now second-guessing myself on Nienna, for the same reasons the Inzil gives.

But who to vote for, then?

[Nerwen]

We could lynch Morsul, you know. Knowing his role for sure would help... and it least we can be pretty certain he's a baddie.

EDIT:X'd with 2 Roas.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I didn't "change my mind". I never said I was going to vote for Nienna, or even that I strongly suspected her. I brought up some things about her that I found suspicious, that's all.

Oh?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What do you make of Nienna and her attempts to make out that Morsul wasn't "really" impersonating the Dreamer? Firstly she says she wasn't sure whether Morsul had actually revealed, and when I quoted the post in which he said "I'm the Dreamer", she suggests that it was just a joke (which it rather clearly wasn't).

Now, granted, Morsul seems to have a sufficiently shaky grasp of the rules that you couldn't 100% rule out him being an ordo who didn't understand what he was doing
– except, by that point he had basically confessed to being the Agent. (Whether he is that, or a wolf, remains to be seen.) I'm thinking– when a cobbler is exposed, who, besides the cobbler himself, has most reason to be dismayed?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I would. Even a very confused ordo should have realised that he would only be getting the (presumed) real Dreamer killed if he succeeded. I mean, along with repeatedly denouncing "the impostor" Pitchwife, he also urged the Ranger not to protect him (#166). Does that sound like a misguided ordo trying to draw fire from the real Seer to you? Really?

Or possibly he really does think he's allowed to switch sides.

But of course, if he's just an ordo, then the false Priest– whichever it is– might be the real Agent. In which case if the real Priest were to die toNight, there'd be no call for us to lynch the impostor next Day...

You see why I'm getting worried about Nienna and her "if one of them's a wolf" business?

(emphasis mine) That looks like suspicion to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And you see, I'm now second-guessing myself on Nienna, for the same reasons the Inzil gives.

But who to vote for, then?

If you were second guessing yourself on her, that implies that you intended to vote for her. To ask who to vote for at this time means that you had just then decided not to vote Nienna.

I know. But lynching any baddie is better than lynching an innocent... and I didn't see enough reason to vote anyone else.

Plus, Brinn, Craydon and Nienna, at least, had expressed doubt as to whether he was really the Agent– and that doubt is something the wolves could use.

And you suspected Nienna for expressing that doubt.

Again– you exaggerate, Roa. I did not "try so hard" to get convince people to think she was a wolf, and in fact I was taken aback when everyone started voting for her.

Look, give me some credit, will you? What good would it have done a wolf-me to make a throwaway vote then anyway? (Not that I intended it to be throwaway- there were still people left to vote then.)

You had been on her since Day 1. You pointed her out to others. You never came out and directly said you suspected her, but it's plainly there for anyone to see. Perhaps you thought that by not making direct statements you could claim that you never really suspected her at all.

I knew at the time my vote would bring me under scrutiny toDay– but I just didn't in conscience feel that I could vote for anyone else.

EDIT:fixed bolding; clarification.

Had you admitted to your suspicion of Nienna, and then acknowledged your change of heart because of what Wilwa did, I may have believed you. But outright denying that you ever suspected her when she was the only person you bothered to bring points against? I think I found a wolf.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I like Roa's analysis of me much better and she summarises my quotes more accurately and doesn't twist my words. But I will comment on the time stamp issue so to clarify things. Just so you know, I'm typically a very slow poster (I think I already spent 30+ minutes on this one) and writer in general, which is something I've always found frustrating. It probably has to do with my perfectionist nature and it means I take twice as long as anyone else to do an analysis. Of course this means sometimes I have a delayed response to things, but I promise it has nothing to do with role. I think in the case of Pitch's reveal, he revealed around the same time I started to post. When I hit preview, I saw his post but I didn't want to have to rewrite the entire post I just did, so I just submitted what I had and decided to give my response to his reveal in the following post. In the past, I have edited my post in preview mode as new posts come in but then I find myself spending twice as long composing the post just so it stays up-to-date. But especially when it's closer to deadline, I sometimes just can't keep up with the floods of posts that are coming in.

Alright, I figured it was something like that.
[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Craydon1

tada, I'm the Changed. Which is also why I've been silent among the priest cluster.

So.... ++Inzil.

Goes to sleep after a 21 hour day waiting for someone to say I'm telling a lie, and they are the real Changed.

Oh, sweetie... the changed is supposed to get killed. That's how you do your job. Though on the brightside, this means that wolves are unlikely to kill you. So I imagine you're hunting Inzil toNight. We'll see how that goes. This could work out quite well for us.

And hey, as long as there isn't a counter reveal, we have another known on our list. And if there is another counter reveal, well, we found our last wolf.

I probably just cross-posted with a bunch.

[Nogrod]

Well, any ideas?

wilwa, Hakon and morsul have one vote a piece and we will not lynch them toDay.

So after that Nienna and me have two votes *. I'd be quite ready to check Nienna as I thought herself suspicious already yesterDay, and toDay I have sadly had just a short time to read and not any time for major analysis.

I'm more confused with Inzil, and it's sad to say that somehow I felt him more lupine yesterDay and in the beginning of toDay when he was so ready to point fingers at my direction but now as he has changed his tone a bit I tend to see much sense in his posts... heh, that's what you get when you're not having decent time to really read people...

But this one I would like to point out anyway...

Originally Posted by Inzil

If I was a wolf, and he'd just declared me innocent (as he did) why would I seek to tear down his claim? I could have run with it and tried to cast doubt on Pitch. Instead, I have defended Pitch as the legitmate Dreamer (because he is).

I think you wouldn't tried that were you a wolf... As a smart person you must have realised that no one is going to believe him, at least after a while (okay, I'm not sure now at what definite moment you made your remarks and have no time to check it). But what I'm saying is that your "denial" of the "revealed innocense" is no proof of your innocense either - but that a smart wolf would have done just that as well as any innocent.

Although I think a wolf would be more ready to speculate about that claimed innocense, like you add the little "well, you were right anyway as I'm an innocent anyway" -thing. But that maybe too much of a personality-driven issue that I don't think it points to either way especially.

EDIT: X'd from Roa's analysis...

* correction: Nienna 3 three votes

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Sorry, I really didn't manage to come earlier, somehow the gazing far stars managed to hypnotise me for most of the day. Okay, I'll see if I can do something in ten minutes which could make me decide to vote (read what's been done since my last post), if I were to vote only based on my previous thoughts, I could vote Inzil, but first, I didn't have really proper chance to check on him, so the suspicion is not particularly strong, and otherwise, I don't probably have any good read on anybody, at least not those who seem to have votes now, like Nog, whom I would need to read (like I said before) and Nienna, also not sure, would need to re-read her. I'll see. I am certainly not going to vote headlessly

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

This is the problem: indeed a Hakonwolf would have considerably more motive for making a false reveal than a Wolfwarin, just because of the order in which the reveals happened. But Wilwarin's argument about why she, Pitch and Hakon will surely be alive tomorrow bugs me. Not that her reasoning is unsound– but the thing is, a Wolfwarin would need to make an argument like that, since if Hakon's telling the truth, the wolves can't kill the Seer toNight, whereas if it's Wilwa they can if they choose to. And, of course, she'd want to avoid being dreamed.

Hence the if's in my statement. As my father would say, we are in violent agreement.

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright-

++Nogrod

Because innocent Nogrod accuses me of being evil every time I do an unfavorable analysis of him, and Wolf-grod tries to keep the waters calm.

This game is throwing me off, but I don't think you would have changed that much in the time I've been away.

[Roa_Aoife]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't half the village still need to vote? Where is everyone?

[Brinniel]

I'm not getting the wolfish vibes from Nienna that everyone else seems to have. I do wonder where her vote came from, though perhaps I missed something she said earlier and I don't have time to look. However, I have a bad feeling about this bandwagon that's started against her.

Nogrod is the runner-up and I'm not comfortable voting him either simply because I haven't had time to look at him enough to form any opinion.

[Roa_Aoife]

If you don't think the lynch candidates are wolves then don't vote for them. That is one piece of advice we can hold onto from yesterday. Vote whomever you believe is the most suspicious. Don't Bandwagon just because you don't seem to have other options.

[Nerwen]

Well. then–

++Morsul.

I'm not sure enough about either Nienna or Nogrod to vote them.

EDIT:X'd since Legate.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm not getting the wolfish vibes from Nienna that everyone else seems to have. I do wonder where her vote came from, though perhaps I missed something she said earlier and I don't have time to look. However, I have a bad feeling about this bandwagon that's started against her.

Nogrod is the runner-up and I'm not comfortable voting him either simply because I haven't had time to look at him enough to form any opinion.

Where did I defend Nienna?

And Nienna and I can't both be wolves. So I don't know what you're getting at. I think you're just voting to save yourself. Which would be fine if you weren't hding it behind poor logic.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have done very, VERY cursoric reading (cursoric = wherever my cursor moved, I read No, honestly, I just skimmed through the thread, really skimmed). So I do not have particular image of what's up, but I get bad feeling from Inzil, really, from a few things I spotted. So I will probably vote him. Especially his indefinite judgements like "I don't like this" and things like what he said about me, "Legate seems like he might need watching for some reason, but it's nothing I can can out my finger on. It's not in anything in particular he's said; more the tone I guess." This is a sort of typical Wolfish indefinite door-for-suspicion-open-talk.

(I will xpost probably since my last post)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Because innocent Nogrod accuses me of being evil every time I do an unfavorable analysis of him, and Wolf-grod tries to keep the waters calm.

Good we got you this way then...

I've had no time to start correcting your analysis - even if you managed to spot the points from there where others were just lazy and misread things.

But your stepping down to defend Nienna is something to be marked on.

And I will go for it immediately.

++ Nienna

[Nogrod]

Sorry. Not able to make any valiant last minute speeches.

If around toMorrow I'll do it (as I have the full Day's time).

But if not, watch that Roa...

[Brinniel]

I can't say I have any really strong suspicions as of now. But I would rather have no part in the Nienna and Nogrod bandwagon. Nienna hasn't even been here to defend herself and I already said I'm uncomfortable voting Nog. Right now I still find Inzil creepy, so that'll be my vote:

++Inziladun