Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

No. You're saying that – contrary to our assumptions– the village will learn nothing about yours and Hakon's roles from toNight's kill? Then I'd say the Seer should definitely dream one of you!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. You're saying that – contrary to our assumptions– the village will learn nothing about yours and Hakon's roles from toNight's kill? Then I'd say the Seer should definitely dream one of you!

But eventually one of us will be found out for what we really are (cause the wolves will eventually kill me and then you'll know what Hakon really is, or something will occur that will make it obvious which of us is what), if we have a limited number of dreams we should use them on those we have absolutely no idea about. You already know one of us has to be a wolf, and one of us has to be telling the truth. Everyone else we have no idea about, the more information we get the better. A dream on me, Hakon or Morsul would be a waste.

I have to get some studying done, like really badly. I'll be back for the last hour of the day. I'll decide then whom to vote for, right now I have no idea.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I actually agree somewhat with Wilwa: The wolves could easily just leave the seer and the ranger alive tonight to continue the charade tomorrow. They're stuck with it now since one of them has pulled this move. They may gamble and try to continue. It would be incredibly risky on their parts, but they've already come out with a false reveal which is always risky.

I think that this whole plan points to inexperienced though not necessarily new players. They had the advantage until they drew the spotlight onto themselves with a false reveal. Someone who has tried that or seen it tried would know how dangerous that is.

I strongly advise Hakon, IF you are the real ranger to not try another gamble tonight, because if you do and Pitch dies, we will surely lynch you.

[Roa_Aoife]

This also makes me less suspicious of Nogrod, as I don't think he would ever suggest to his fellow wolf to try this.

Okay, Lari first. Back soon.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Okay, I actually agree somewhat with Wilwa: The wolves could easily just leave the seer and the ranger alive tonight to continue the charade tomorrow. They're stuck with it now since one of them has pulled this move. They may gamble and try to continue.

Not if they're smart, they won't. There's a way out of that one– which obviously I am not going to explain now, in case they haven't thought of it.

I'm just saying , I don't think we can be at all sure what the wolves are going to do toNight.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It would be incredibly risky on their parts, but they've already come out with a false reveal which is always risky.

I think that this whole plan points to inexperienced though not necessarily new players. They had the advantage until they drew the spotlight onto themselves with a false reveal. Someone who has tried that or seen it tried would know how dangerous that is.

But neither of the two is a new player, not really, so what's your point? Or are you talking about the unknown third wolf as well? I don't think we can draw any conclusions about that party, since I doubt the reveal was planned.

The big question is, why reveal? What does it get them?

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

This also makes me less suspicious of Nogrod, as I don't think he would ever suggest to his fellow wolf to try this.

If the wolf's Hakon, he would have done it anyway.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Not if they're smart, they won't. There's a way out of that one– which obviously I am not going to explain now, in case they haven't thought of it.

I'm just saying , I don't think we can be at all sure what the wolves are going to do toNight.

Which is exactly what I was saying- we don't know what they will do toNight. So assuming that the kill will completely settle our question of the ranger's identity is faulty and leads us into a trap that the wolves can easily use. Which was my point.

But neither of the two is a new player, not really, so what's your point? Or are you talking about the unknown third wolf as well? I don't think we can draw any conclusions about that party, since I doubt the reveal was planned.

I'm not 100% on the idea, but it seems more likely. Of the mess, I've only played with Wilwa before my long absence, so I have no idea about the rest and the experience as players.

The big question is, why reveal? What does it get them?

A very confused village, for one. The possibility of a lynched gifted, for two. Depending on which of our two rangers is the real one, possibly the identity of the ranger. (Which only works if Wilwa is the real ranger, and I'm leaning towards Hakon at the moment.)

If the wolf's Hakon, he would have done it anyway.

If this wasn't planned, then I imagine the third wolf is panicking right now.

Edit: Crossed with Brinn down

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I'll try to get through Inzil in a hurry, since DL is approaching.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

A very confused village, for one. The possibility of a lynched gifted, for two. Depending on which of our two rangers is the real one, possibly the identity of the ranger. (Which only works if Wilwa is the real ranger, and I'm leaning towards Hakon at the moment.)

This is the problem: indeed a Hakonwolf would have considerably more motive for making a false reveal than a Wolfwarin, just because of the order in which the reveals happened. But Wilwarin's argument about why she, Pitch and Hakon will surely be alive tomorrow bugs me. Not that her reasoning is unsound– but the thing is, a Wolfwarin would need to make an argument like that, since if Hakon's telling the truth, the wolves can't kill the Seer toNight, whereas if it's Wilwa they can if they choose to. And, of course, she'd want to avoid being dreamed.

On the other hand, she could be trying to convince the wolves they should refrain from killing her or the Dreamer.

EDIT:X'd with a host.

[Roa_Aoife]

Lari

Day 1

Post 1- Slight suspicion towards SPM, doesn't think Day 1 is going to be useful, wants to be optimistic

Okay, standard first post early in the Day. She reiterates what's been said, agrees with some people, then pops back out. Her slight suspicion of SPM is interesting here. Could be a fellow wolf distancing herself. Could be she spottted something before the rest of us.

Post 2- Response to SPM, suggests he may be the Agent, doesn't like Hakon's point about SPM, doesn't think Craydon's question will lead anywhere

Interesting theory on SPM, though the premise is weak at best, and she suspects Hakon for having a reason to suspect SPM that is as weak as hers.

Post 3- Vote count and List:
Innocent/ Not suspicious: Inzil, Pitch, Wilwa, Roa, Crayon, Nienna, Legate, Morsul
Unsure/ No read: Nogrod, Nerwen, Kitanna
Needs Watching/ Suspicious: Loslote, Hakon, SPM, Brinn

She gives short explanations for each view, which I appreciate. However, she builds her suspicion of Hakon using an out of context statement by SPM and feeds each one into the other, making a circular argument. Could be an innocent trying to give reason to her gut, or could be a wolf building a weak case to distance herself from her fellow.

Post 4- Response to Nogrod. doesn't find Nienna's reaction suspicious, Vote count

I don't have a problem with her response to Nogrod. In fact this is the primary reason I suspect him. I dislike the lack of solid cases from her, but I don't know if that's just her style. *thinks of Valier*

Post 5- Is wary of Pitch's reveal. Was thinking of voting SPM anyways, but was also considering Hakon.

I can understand her wariness- she wasn't the only one and a revealing gifted is always slightly suspicious (not even counting when there are counter-reveals.) I don't see what her case is against Hakon, but then I didn't really understand anyone's case against Hakon on Day 1. Her consideration of voting Hakon looks almost like a wolf trying to salvage a situation gone horribly wrong.

Post 6- Votes SPM

Can't glean much from this as it came post seer reveal.

Day 2

Post 1- "Seems" that SPM's death confirms Pitch as seer

Seems?

Post 2- reaction to the mass reveals:
Dreamers- seriously doubts Morsul but believes him to be the Agent.
Priests- No idea what to think about that, but thinks wilwa is less suspicious than Hakon
Is generally very confused

Well, at least she has stayed consistent on her suspicion of Hakon

The most suspicious thing about her is her case against Hakon and SPM, which was weak and based on pure assumption. A poor case is not always a sign of a wolf. I don't see why she suspects Hakon. She basically says that he's suspicious because he's acting like himself, which seems like a very made up reason to me.

Edit: crossed with Nerwen

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Legate

By the way, this is actually a pretty good point too. So we WILL basically know the true Ranger by the next morning, even if the WWs don't kill the real one.

Not necessarily. Our true ranger could be bluffing about who they protected. I kinda doubt Hakon would bluff if he's the real ranger, though a ranger wilwa could easily be. But we can't eliminate that possibility for either of them.

Originally Posted by wilwa

Well at the beginning of the Day Pitch's first post just struck me the wrong way, but I wasn't planning to say anything right away, well honestly cause I didn't want to look bad. So when Morsul revealed I was more inclined to believe him, since Pitch had already looked suspicious to me. Obviously now I don't believe Morsul anymore. He's the Agent, he has to be, so I don't understand why people have voted for him, we should just leave him alone and try to get a wolf. The agent is harmless out in the open, they do far more damage when they're still hidden. So we're lucky here.

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

This post just makes me a bit more uneasy about wilwa.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Legate just made a really good point about this quote. A wolf Inzil wouldn't want to eliminate the possibility that Pitch could be lying so that if the wolves decide to intentionally leave him alive then we'll start to doubt Pitch's innocence and lynch him. It'd be a risky move to leave a seer alive and dreaming, though perhaps our wolves are afraid to kill him anyway with the possibility of hitting the ranger's protection and would rather have the village take care of him. Another thing that worries me about this quote is that last line. Anyone who clearly states "I am innocent" always makes me wary because someone who is really innocent does not need to emphasize or reassure that truth unless they are being heavily suspected at the time.

I'm finding Inzil as rather creepy. His posts remind me a bit from last time he was a wolf, though it's possible I may be mixing up what I find to be wolfish behaviour with what his general playing style is.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Legate just made a really good point about this quote. A wolf Inzil wouldn't want to eliminate the possibility that Pitch could be lying so that if the wolves decide to intentionally leave him alive then we'll start to doubt Pitch's innocence and lynch him. It'd be a risky move to leave a seer alive and dreaming, though perhaps our wolves are afraid to kill him anyway with the possibility of hitting the ranger's protection and would rather have the village take care of him. Another thing that worries me about this quote is that last line. Anyone who clearly states "I am innocent" always makes me wary because someone who is really innocent does not need to emphasize or reassure that truth unless they are being heavily suspected at the time.

My intention with that post was to shoot Morsul down. If I was a wolf, and he'd just declared me innocent (as he did) why would I seek to tear down his claim? I could have run with it and tried to cast doubt on Pitch. Instead, I have defended Pitch as the legitmate Dreamer (because he is).

[Nogrod]

So three wolves.

One, spm, is dead.

One is most likely, very likely, either Hakon or wilwa.

So just one left?

When reading I had a sense that people were too ready to give the "revealed-four" a free ride (and I actually started suspecting you Roa on it), but looking at it now and seeing that we have 16 villagers left I do agree that we can afford not lynching anyone of those four as some things might actually reveal themselves based on the choices of the wolves & the gifteds. At least a Day or two.


And let me be the tenth person to say, yes, Morsul looks perfectly like a cobbler (agent).

Although, looking at the numbers we might sure afford lynching him as well if we met a dead end and were too insecure one Day. This just for the possibility that it would be an interersting idea that he'd chosen to play a downright newbie cobbler but is a wolf indeed (SPM might have been involved in planning that) as people would be hesitant to lynch "clear cobblers". I mean somehow the way he plays is off any newbieness - so wether he's just having fun with the role in his first game or then that is a delibarate act to protect him from lynching.

That would mean that the possible daring tactics was not thought of to the end?


Or then the third one is one totally different and "far away" from these four, well three, well two (of whom one is her/his mate that is)... Maybe someone trying now to make her/himself good seeing so clearly how it goes? Or maybe trying to save her/himself some company by demanding none of the controversial people to be killed...

Anyway that reasonable person should be raving mad to her/his last companion for making that bold revelation-move and threathening to leave her/him alone after Day2 in a village of 16!



I can't say which one looks more genuine, Hakon or wilwa, but if wilwa is a wolf and Nienna is as well I will gloat for a jackpot indeed...

Okay, quite a many other options open as well...


I see a host of long posts being made... so back to reading.