Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent? Nothing I can see. This looks suspiciously like a plan to frame Inzil next.

This is assuming that we deal with a cunning pack acting really deviously, instead of just going "She voted one of us, so we kill her for it", which would be just too blatantly transparent.

Ah, but from the point of view of this travel-worn bard, it's so transparent that the village would probably not believe an entire pack would do something that obvious– and the wolves should know this. Makes me wonder if it could be a double-bluff. (Alternatively, the wolves really are playing dumb.)

Contrast this to my argument on the Mnemo kill. In that case, Mnemo had a theory about Wilwa's guilt which she had yet to reveal. That gives a Wolfwarin a real motive for killing her. By the same token, it gives the wolves a good chance to frame an innocent Wilwa. (As I recall, no-one seemed to be following up on it yesterDay, however.)

I wonder why Mnemo acted as she did? Saying, "I've got this theory about why X is a wolf, see you tomorrow," is pretty much the definition of "asking for it". You'd think the wolves would be afraid she was the Hunter. I'd almost say that clears Wilwa– except that your friendly travelling minstrel once voyaged on a ship whose crew thought wolves would never risk killing a Hunter who suspected them. The results were not pretty.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What's interesting is that Nog's prime suspects up to now were Legate and Lommy, both now known innocents. If he was a wolf, he'd certainly not confirm somebody he suspected publicly as innocent by killing her, thus painting himself suspicious.

That's what you think. (I'm not saying it's evidence of his guilt, you understand, but I don't think it tells us anything either way.)

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nerwen, I don't quite get it - on the one hand my theory is rather complicated, on the other hand it requires a newbie pack??

I didn't say it requires a newbie pack (when does that ever happen?) just that it would be an odd move for anyone else (unless, as Wilwa suggests, they're trying to look inexperienced). By "complicated" I meant the double-assumption aspect.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.