Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nogrod]

But how do you explain this (the bolding especially)?

Originally Posted by the Mod

this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left).

[Nogrod]

I mean there is no other way for there being only two wolves left the next Night but that Alona is one and we lynch another toDay... we can't lynch two wolves now can we?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But how do you explain this (the bolding especially)?

"this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left)."

Oh, wait, maybe Steve's back in the stakes after all. Dear me.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nerwen]

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".

Okay, that might make sense... but why - well anyway why - to make that comment as we all know that even a lonely wolf can kill unless DG'd?

Odd, to put it mildly...

[Boromir88]

Why are we wasting time on debating this? Alona will be killed at the end of the day the wolves will have one kill. Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

What may we learn from finding out the role of somebody who hasn't played at all, and whose being modfired, whatever her role, won't affect the number of kills toNight? I'm puzzled.

When analysing the Guard bandwagons, it's well to think about possible set-ups, but let's not forget that at least some people will have used their Guard votes as they were originally meant to be used, i.e. to keep alive those we think innocent, while others used the Guard as a test and some probably voted with both aspects in mind (I know I did).

For now, I've got to eat and then work on another two tombstones. See you later.

P.S. Have I mentioned yet that it feels really good to be alive on Day 3 for a change? Wonder how long that'll last...

[Nogrod]

On a different issue...

Originally Posted by Boro

I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1?

Thanks Boro! I started reading the thread from the beginning but it felt totally unfocused and futile in a way; I mean too many things to focus on and surely no one wishes to read (or make) a short interpretation about all that has happened. But I had forgotten that no one had done that and it would be interesting indeed. As I said yesterDay already the sudden bandwagon of guarding me felt quite creepy. So let's see whether there are common denominators there with the two NG-wagons as it seems the wolves wished to frame those protected with their one kill tactics. We all know that with Legate and I do know it from my part as well.

Originally Posted by Boro

Why are we wasting time on debating this? Alona will be killed at the end of the day the wolves will have one kill. Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

I don't see it as a waste of time. If it is true that Alona is a wolf my target for toDay changes radically. With one wolf bagged and the double-kill threat lifted I'd focus heavily on the quieter ones because we could then afford it at this stage of the game. If it's not true, we'd need to focus on those we can actually say something based on actual words and deeds which means our more active players, which is always so stupid because it gives certain people free-rides to make their mischiefs in the end...

So to me at least this is important.

But I won't be arguing about it the next hours as I have work to do eg. looking back at the NG-wagons.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So to me at least this is important.

Fair enough, for me I don't see the purpose because Eonwe has repeatedly said he's not giving any mod hints, maybe it was a slip, but why blow it up to that extent? Did you really expect something like "Yep, you got me, I made a slip."

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

NG Votes for Legate (Day 1):

Brinn
Nerwen
Shasta
Nogrod
Lommy
wilwa

(Italics be the dead innocents)

NG Votes for Nogrod (Day 2):

Greenie
Pitch
McCaber
wilwa
Nessa
Inzil
Hakon

That's interesting, the only repeated name is wilwa. I would also like to point out from Pitch on down to Hakon was just pretty much a large guard Nogrod wagon. With Legate there really wasn't a wagon, it was pretty split between guarding me or Legate.

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes. Or maybe that just means we have wolves who are trying to distance themselves from eachother and spread out? hmmm

[Boromir88]

Ahh, and I'll be away until 2 or 3-ish my time, so there best be some real good analysis that I can come back to.

And ye wolves were probably most unwise to leave me alive this long ha, I gave you the chance to kill me early when I was exhausted. Now the fire's been lit and it will be most difficult to lynch me, you'd be sure to regret it because it would be your end.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

I guess I answered that already but maybe I need to do it again.

It's not about Alona, it's about there not being four wolves any more and thence no threat of double-kills. That being the case I'd suggest we'd turn more to the quieter ones for lynches as we can afford it now better than later (we can't just leave them be quiet the whole game and only hope they will be on our side) - but with the chance of double-kills on us we probably need to search from the more vocal people as we need to get one wolf down and quick and with the submarines it's throwing a dice.

The problem being that those more vocal could help us (or can be caught more easily) later unlike those who just shut up.


I need to go and make some dinner etc. but here's a few things that started to bother me as I went reading things over Day1 & 2.

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Anyway our discussion of the Kit-voters died down pretty soon as everyone (me included) focused on Legate.

I mean to me it was odd Kit was lynched. Her reasons for voting were not the best ones but not the worst either. So how come she ended up at the gallows? If she was right with Brinn there would have been people eager to send her there...


Also I was actually thinking much better of Wilwa re-reading Day1 but looking at Boro's list on the NG-votes makes me think it again.

Sally makes me worried as well...


I'll try to elaborate a bit later and hopefully have some more solid to bring forwards.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".

I meant to say "a minimum of 2-3 left". I seem to have just missed out those three words.

[A Little Green]

I think I'm going to bed now. I agree, though, that Wilwa's point is something we might want to look at toMorrow. And now I'll just hope this bandwagon will end with our triumph. Either way, though, it will be rich material for analysis...

[Hakon]

++Nienna

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

[satansaloser2005]

++Shasta