Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[wilwarin538]

Here they are. I left out a few of the random banter ones from the beginning. But I'm pretty sure I got all the others, don't think I missed any. No commentary here from me, just wanted to make those available. I might come back to her though, if I have the time.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Right.

The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.

Thank you for posting before me, Boro; people who post first with cunning plans are startling Day 1 lynch targets and I'd hate to put myself on the chopping block so early.

Not that anyone would want to lynch a face like this...

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Darn.

Take away all my fun from me, will you?

Unless we wanted to coordinate saves with the Ranger, which really is not a half bad idea when you think about it...

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

It's all up to the Seer and whether s/he wants to come out at this point.

Of course, likely a wolf has already thought of this and would reveal first and/or counterreveal. I don't know how we'd proceed then, unless we wanted to protect both (Ranger one and the village the other, then alternate).

But IF there were a way of knowing the Seer is real, then all we need is a simple majority of ++Guard votes. The wolves would probably be too willing to go along at this point. Next night everyone would vote according to his/her conscience and the Ranger would make the save.

My point is that normally when new and/or weird rules are introduced into the mix the wolves profit from the confusion that results.

But I think in this situation we've been handed a genuine boon, if we can learn how to use it properly.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

I did not say that the Seer should reveal his/her dreams each Day. That would be the equivalent of sending the Wolves a kill list. So, not unless we nab a wolf. In the meantime, though, if we have a protected Seer we do know that we will be getting dreams to our advantage, and if the Ranger dies then the Seer can reveal all of his/her dreams to the village. Hopefully at that point (depending on dream picks vs. kill picks) we would have enough Known Innocents to keep the wolves busy killing them off while we can focus on the unknowns.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Second: Lommy, my dear, you are commenting on said plan. So don't complain about the fact that people are still talking about it. Fact is, people are filtering into this village one by one today and they may have thoughts about the matter that haven't been brought up yet.

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Nog, I like your style (i.e., keep 'em both alive).

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Silly, the seer would not be handing us the game. Unless s/he caught a wolf we would still be left to our own consciences when voting, and the Ranger would not last forever under this plan. All it does is give the village a tactical advantage.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Currently debating whether to guard Boro, Legate, or Nog. They're all reasonable people, though they're heckawolves, plus they make the day more interesting. I'd hate to lose any of them Night One, until I have more information (since information they will leave) to go off of.

I'm already 90% sure of my lynch pick.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Nice catch!

Wish I had time to discuss it more. Since I don't,

++Guard Boro

and

++wilwarin538

Nothing personal, m'dear; just a crack theory I have right now...

Hmm, curious what her "crack theory" was. Really don't like it when people are so cryptic. I almost prefer no reasoning over crypticness.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

[Inziladun]

Well, interesting turns of events, to say the least. They failed to guard you, Boro, so I trust you didn't have a hand in poor Mnemo's death!

I regret being part of Kitanna's, but her vote and guard struck me as wrong, and no one else was screaming for my vote.
I haven't seen anything much of note in Kit's words, beyond what Wilwa noted about the 'red flag' comment.
Nor Mnemo's. The choice of her as a target seems rather random. I would be curious as to the details of her 'crack theory' about Wilwa though.
Nerwen, if you would be so kind, a song might cheer our hearts.
What to do with the Legate?

*takes a drink of stock ale*

[Nienna]

The Voting:

Lynch:
Nilp--> Nilp – I believe this is fairly typical.
Mnemo--> Wilwa – a theory that I’m sad we will now never know
Brinn--> McCaber – because he hadn’t posted and she didn’t find anyone suspicious
Nerwen--> Kit – thinks she was jittery about the seer reveal plan (which is in hindsight understandable) but there was something that didn’t sit right with her. She acknowledges that she doesn’t really have a proper case against Kit but says she doesn’t have a proper case against anyone. I’m leaning innocent for her at the moment.
Shasta--> Lommy – not sure why… he mentioned that he thought she looked odd earlier and that he had a busy day.
Kit--> Brinn – doesn’t like that she voted for McCaber because he wasn’t participating. She understands random votes but not the voting for someone who isn’t participating. I don’t think that Brinn was the dream.
Boro--> Kit – he thought that her reactions to Mnemo’s plan were suspicious as well as her lynch-vote for Brinn. He had been suspicious of Kit for a while… I’m leaning slightly closer to innocent than guilty for him.
Zil--> Kit – he doesn’t like her vote for Brinn. This seems like a wolf jumping on a bandwagon to me.
Greenie--> Nog – she doesn’t like how he went after Lommy and his post where he ends with “So…” (quoted in her 95). She believes that it looks really evil and she finds him more suspicious than she has ever found anyone on Day One before. Interesting.
McCaber--> Wilwa – “for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety”
Hakon--> Legate – he feels “off”
Pitchwife--> Kit – for lack of something better…he wavered between suspecting her and not suspecting her
Legate--> Wilwa – to give Kit some lynch competition it would seem. This looks innocent.[/sarcasm]
Nienna--> Zil
Wilwa--> Kit – doesn’t like voting without suspicion but wants to save herself
Nog--> Greenie – she is either too trigger happy or evil for voting for him and too much rhetorics.
Lommy--> Kit – she isn’t sure why everyone is suspicious of Wilwa
Sally--> Kit – she mentions that she thinks Kit a bit suspicious but it might be too easy

Guard:
Mnemo--> Boro – no real reason given except that she grouped him with Legate and Nog as reasonable people who are “heckawolves” and interesting to keep around. So this sounds like she guarded Boro because he could be innocent or guilty and she likes having him around.
Brinn--> Legate – she believes him innocentish, sensible, and reasonable.
Sally--> Mnemo – she believes her to be innocent and would be a good person to have on her side because she was coming up with new theories (the seer thing)
Nerwen--> Legate – because he is a likely target if innocent and he has been worrying her a little so he was a good choice in her mind no matter how you look at it
Kit--> Hakon – hasn’t posted yet so would be an easy no-trail kill. I don’t believe he was her dream though.
Shasta--> Legate – he (along with Lommy) looked odd.
Boro--> Nienna – he mentioned earlier that I have good instincts
Zil--> Boro – he wants to keep Boro around but he doesn’t want grief if he (Zil) is wrong about him (Boro). Yep Zil is still flashing wolf at me.
Nog--> Legate – to find out whether he is a wolf or not (I believe)
Greenie--> Nienna
Nienna--> Mnemo
Hakon--> Boro – he feels “innocent”
Pitchwife--> Boro – no reason (unless this is also for lack of something better)
Lommy--> Legate – to know his role … If Legate is a wolf this would seem to point toward Lommy’s innocence
Legate--> Lommy – interestingly he doesn’t try to guard someone with more votes so as to maybe not be guarded so we don’t find out he is furry.
Wilwa--> Legate (not bolded…?... does this mean it doesn’t count?)

[wilwarin538]

Another list, just cause they are crazy fun:

Suspicious
Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.
McCaber: not too too much from him yesterDay, but his vote just bugs me, doubt I'll vote him though, but I'm watching him
Lommy: she seemed very flip-floppy (as Nog put it), the fact that she was quick to disregard both Mnemo's plan and Pitch's suggestion as being "unfair" really bugs me, since they both follow the rules perfectly, and therefore are completely fair

Innocentish, for now
Boro: seems honest and logical, haven't seen anything that I don't like, might vote to guard him
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, I understand why she got some guard votes yesterDay
Nienna: not seeing anything badish here
Nogrod: really trusting him, I like his logic and agree with him for the most part, I appreciate that he didn't totally throw out Mnemo's idea yesterDay, pretty sure I'm gonna vote to guard him
Pitchwife: seems fine
Sally: seems good
Shasta: seems good

Unsure, for now anyway
Greenie: didn't really stand out for me when I was reading back through, so don't have an opinion either way
Alona: no posts yet
Brinn: see Greenie
Hakon: nothing but "gut feelings" from him, so really there's not much to say
Inziladun: see Greenie and Brinn
Nessa: nothing from her yet
Nilp: is Nilp, "Confussion" is his middle name I'm sure

So there we are. Gonna go sleep now. Hope to see lots when I get up!

Xposted with Nilp, Inzil and Nienna

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Illustrious Legate and the one-kill NIGHT?

[Nienna]

It may, in fact, be too easy but I don't know if I'm willing to risk letting a wolf slip by with these odds and the wolves being able to kill two people at night. We can either lynch Legate who was heavily suspected yesterDay anyway or we can lynch someone else who has higher odds of being innocent. If we lynch Legate and find out that he is innocent then we know the wolves are messing with us and with their ability to kill two people per night.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Then again, I'm not able to make much out of our single *chortles* lead. Except that Mnemo was smart enough to come up with that plan. But she wasn't exactly quiet, was she? She polarised the village along two lines: those in favour, and those opposing. (Plus the usual slackers, but they're always there, so they don't count. )

Then again, nobody voted for her, nobody suspected her.

[Nerwen]

*strums lute in minor key*

Ai! Well, that was a bad start. I feel partly responsible, too... It's yet another example of how hard it is to distinguish between wolfish and gifted-ish behaviour.

At the risk of sticking my head in a noose– I do think we need to look at the Kit voters. Very unlikely there wasn't a wolf involved.

Originally Posted by Nienna

It may, in fact, be too easy but I don't know if I'm willing to risk letting a wolf slip by with these odds and the wolves being able to kill two people at night. We can either lynch Legate who was heavily suspected yesterDay anyway or we can lynch someone else who has higher odds of being innocent. If we lynch Legate and find out that he is innocent then we know the wolves are messing with us and with their ability to kill two people per night.

Well, I found him a trifle off yesterDay myself– but what about your own point here?–

Originally Posted by Nienna

Legate--> Lommy – interestingly he doesn’t try to guard someone with more votes so as to maybe not be guarded so we don’t find out he is furry.

I agree, though, that it does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

EDIT:X'd with The Fool.

[Nerwen]

Of course, if Boro– the runner-up in the Guard voting– were a wolf, I suppose a Legwolf wouldn't have voted him.

EDIT:spelling.

[McCaber]

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have just skimmed throught toDay as I don't have that much time, just a few notes.

First, of course the Wolves are framing us, and I would apply on the village to say that lynching me would really be stupid. If that goes on, you can always lynch me later (at most when you don't have any other people and it's some Day Fifty), but this frame-up is so transparent once it's been done. Look at it from the Wolves' point of view, if they had the incredible luck of getting rid of a Seer, and they can still have two kills per every Night, I don't see that it would be too much of a pain for them to leave out one kill. (And especially if they can easily lynch one innocent on this Day by accusing him like this.)

Right now I have a very bad feeling about wilwa, partially also about sally and also about Hakon, who just pops out and says to lynch me yesterday, and then pops out and says today:

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Which just stinks.

Okay, had to go now, will be back later during the Day. You can line up with questions on me meanwhile, if you have any, but it'll be in some eight hours from now at first when I can answer.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Also, when did we start not having Seers?

...what do you mean there's been one in every game? I don't recall the last time -

...what do you mean they consistently die off Day/Night One? Surely the village wouldn't be so silly!

...what do you mean, "go back and look"?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tally with preliminary Kitanna-lysis

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Tie breaker! Boro needs closer inspection, but for the moment I consider him an 'I dunno what he is.'

+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Worrying bandwaggon-style vote.

+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)

Pitchie has been much helpful during the DAY's discussion; therefore I am inclined to think him 'clueless' innocent.

+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)

wilwa was in second place for most of the last hour. She said that her vote was to try to save herself. If she is a Wolf I would look more closely at Lommy and Sally (see below).

-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Not a Kitanna vote, but . . . Throwaway much? Last-minute Wolf-on-Wolf? (If I remember right it's also somewhat standard Nog to vote 'with principles.') An innocentish 'I don't know what he is', due to some good stuff said during the DAY.

-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Doom, gloom, boom. The two lasses created a huge gap between wilwa and Kitanna during the very last minute, so . . . see above.

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

Lunch, Guard vote list, and more analysis. In that order.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Guard tally with preliminary analysis.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

. . .

. . .

. . .

I've decided not to run with it. You know why?

When we analyse the lynch vote we know at the end we'll get the identity of the 'winner', from which we can deduce intentions of those who cast votes for that person or the runner/s-up. In this case, however, we can't say for certain if the 'winner' is innocent or guilty, except if the Wolves do a double-kill (which they didn't!) Despite heavy prejudice for Legate's guilt, we still can't say that for certain.

However, the tally will become more useful once we get a Werewolf, since it's an additional form of interaction, from which we can deduce intentions. But that means first we have to get a Werewolf. Which the Guard tally will not help me with.

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

Postpartum possums. One gem from the Guard tally muck: I think Hakon is innocent.

[wilwarin538]

Here and reading.

[wilwarin538]

Suspicious
Legate: I suppose suspicious is technically the wrong word for him, it's more that he is a logical choice and that his death could answer some questions and clear up a few things (hopefully)
McCaber: mainly cause his vote yesterday bugged me, I wouldn't vote for him purely on this, I'm just keeping an eye out for him
Zil: his vote, and over all badness vibe coming from him, again will keep an eye out, and will concentrate a bit more on him tomorrow if I'm around

Innocentish, for now
Boro: seems honest and logical, haven't seen anything that I don't like, might vote to guard him
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, might guard her
Nienna: really liking
Nogrod: will probably vote to guard him
Sally: seems goodish, not crazy confident about her, but I'm leaning more innocent
Shasta: seems good
Brinn: very comfortable with her

Unsure, for now anyway
Greenie: under the reindeer, atleast under mine, not sure why cause she has posted a lot, but I just don't feel anything either way
Alona: no posts yet
Hakon: nothing but "gut feelings" from him, so really there's not much to say, but he's probably innocent
Nessa: nothing from her yet
Nilp: always confuses me, hard to get a solid feeling either way from him
Pitch: I was fairly confident of him, but now it's more of an unsure feeling

I'm gonna vote for

++Legate

now, since I really don't see me changing my mind on that, even if I'm starting to get a bit uneasy about this, it still just seems the most logical choice. Will wait to cast my guard vote though for a bit.

Xposted with Legate

[Brinniel]

Yeesh, twice now I have left Day One early only to return to find the seer dead. Surely we learned after last game...but no? Looking back at yesterDay, that Kitanna bandwagon seems off. I actually can't really see why she looked so suspicious. Those who participated in the bandwagon deserve a closer look. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or maybe two wolves were involved.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Btw, did Nessa or alona show up at all yesterDay? I see they didn't vote, but I can't recall whether they even posted or not. Also, any reason why you didn't vote to guard someone, McCaber and Nilp?

I would take a look at the Kit bandwagon now, but it's late and I need to go to bed shortly. If no one has done it yet, perhaps I'll do it tomorrow if I have time.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta and Nilp (who already seems to be doing a Kit analysis)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Because I didn't see anyone I'd like to keep alive.

I'm killing myself, why should y'all be protected?