WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nienna

++ Sally

*sorry dear* *cough cough* "I mean ... GARRRR... Walk the Plank"

Your vote for Nog worries me a bit. It almost seems like a bandwagon vote and those are never good. Nog was being a little zealous but I addressed my issue with that and he doesn't seem suspicious to me.

Would there be a wolf-on-wolf vote on Day 1? Possibly. This was the second vote for Sally, but I don't think there was much risk of her getting lynched.

Legate of Amon Lanc - No Idea - I'm not really really sure whats up with him. I'm not getting any overly good or bad vibes. Voted Izzy Day One. He is being reasonable.

Shastanis Althreduin - No Idea - Voted Nog Day One

Rune Son of Bjarne - No Idea - voted Izzy Day One. I have really no idea... could go either way.

satansaloser2005 - Evil - Voted Nog day One with no real reason and voted I'm getting terrible evil vibes from her. This could be just the way she is playing or that she can't post much but if she is innocent she needs to post something helpful really really soon for me to not vote for her.

Eönwë - No Idea - Voted Izzy at the last minute.

Hmm...still pursuing Sally. Thoughts on the other wolves/unknowns are a bit vague.

++ Sally

Now would a wolf pursue a mate multiple Days? It's happened before, though I think it less likely.

First a question:

Sally are you the seer? If so why would you reveal if Nog was doing so well by himself?

I've read the thread... and think I know all the possibilities but my problem most lies with the fact that Sally never openly stated that she was in fact the seer. She made a seer dream list and said who was guilty and who was innocent so far and she said she has a role but she did not say what that role was. By reading her post it can be inferred that she is the Seer but I would believe her more if she said openly that she is the seer. Does that make sense?

I've been getting evil vibes from Sally for some time now and I've been keeping my eyes on her but a seer reveal now seems like it would be too risky for one of the wolves.

Her statement that Sally never actually revealed is rather odd since I think the implication was pretty obvious. She suspected Sally the first two Days, but slightly backtracks when everyone else starts suspecting her, which concerns me slightly.

[Brinniel]

Very little from him on the first Days aside from banter and a random vote.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Sally is the type of person who would do exactly as she's doing now as a bored Ordo, attempting to protect the person she thought was the Seer. Nogrod, I think you're being overly paranoid.

In any case, whether or not Sally is lying, Lhuna is a wolf. It's clear we need to lynch her today.

This does look pretty bad, but I doubt he'd be so obvious like that.

How many errors do you count in that statement? I count... two.

1. You suspect me. Why? I can't have given you anything to suspect me on - I haven't been able to post. The only reason you say you suspect me is because you don't like that I haven't been able to participate as much as I normally do, Nogrod, admit it.

2. I defend the liar so consistently. ...Wait, consistently? I make one post offering an alternate explanation as to why Sally has been saying what she's been saying - one, mind you, that you seem to have rejected out-of-hand - and not only do you say I'm "defending" her, but that I'm doing it "consistently"? With one post? Rethink that, maybe, and get back to me.

Defensiveness. Could come from either side.

I'll be around to vote tomorrow, but I'm going to sit down and shut up because all that's come of me being active today is I've been A) chastised for not being active during the first few days and B) suspected for being active today and bringing an alternative idea to the table.

Sounds like a frustrated ordo here.

Why would I be desperate to save Sally if she and I were both wraiths, Nerwen? Given that she'll eventually be lynched, that would put a glaring spotlight on me.

Good point, though he could be double bluffing. He acts with obviously wolfish behaviour because others might not expect a wolf to be that obvious. Possible, but less likely I think.

Beloved one, I must confess all manner of ideas have passed through my head. Perhaps Sally is a secret role. Perhaps Sally's attempting to be helpful. Perhaps Lhuna-wraith mis-sent a PM. I really can't fathom her reasoning. I simply wish not to exclude alternative explanations out of hand.

These possible explanations do seem rather absurd.

I hope Nogrod dreamt me. Otherwise I was probably better off not being active and getting modkilled.

A pity post. Could go either way.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

For what it's worth (not much), I think the last wraiths are Nienna and Rune.

Re: the last post Brinn quoted - I wasn't looking for pity. I was being serious, as I explained later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

[Nienna's] statement that Sally never actually revealed is rather odd since I think the implication was pretty obvious. She suspected Sally the first two Days, but slightly backtracks when everyone else starts suspecting her, which concerns me slightly.

Ah, yes. I'd forgotten about that. It could even be read as Nienna trying to suggest a way out to Sally. (Bear in mind, though, that she's a relative newbie.)

EDIT:X'd with Brinn.

[Brinniel]

Well, lets see. We have a three way tie. If people are just going to go last minute crazy then I don't know what'll happen. I don't want to kill Nog yet, and I've been killing Sally off too much in the past when she's innocent, so

++Izzy

Perhaps a wolf saving a mate from possible lynching?

Nienna - A pirate eh? You know what we do to pirates...
Kent2010 - He might scam us into joining him
Legate of Amon Lanc - rebels are never good for a stable society. I saw giive 'im the same treatment as pirates"
Nogrod - I don't fancy bein' hit by 'is famous The Cat O' Nine tails
Shastanis Althreduin - Pshhh! King?
wilwarin538 - A magic doer. Evil most likely.
Nerwen - See Shasta
Nilpaurion Felagund - can't be too fussy when lynchin'
Rune Son of Bjarne - See Wilwa. Only he has a more dramatic name.
Lhunardawen - See Legate
Eomer of the Rohirrim - Rohan? I dont like them thar people.
Groin Redbeard - The warlord is quiet. Who know what he plots
satansaloser2005 - Who is she? No fancy title? Why is she here?
Brinniel - See Sally

A lot of people found that post suspicious. I think he was harmlessly trying to be funny, but was unsuccessful due to bad timing. A mistake that could be made from either a wolf or an innocent.

Nienna - Seems like she's trying to help, but maybe a little false. However she may just not be getting any vibes like me, so I'm not ready to incriminate her yet.
Legate of Amon Lanc - Mixed. There are many things he says that seem reasonable and helpful, while some things he says just seem a little sinister, but there's nothing I can pin down.
Shastanis Althreduin - hasn't said much. Not enough for me to say anything on.
Rune Son of Bjarne - I have no idea. He just comes and goes in waves. A very grey area for me.
satansaloser2005 -Seems a little victimised to me. She hasn't really said anything I find suspicious.

Doesn't really tell much.

I don't really like trusting seer reveals too often, so I don't really like the way the village immediately believes him. He could just be a manipulative wolf with a well-though-out case. Werewolf is after all a manipulative game so it's best to be wary.

Nevertheless, I've thought before that something seems a little wrong with Legate this game, and I guess this is our chance to test it (I doubt we could lynch anyone else by now anyway). At least then we will know the identity of at least one wolf (Legate or Nogrod).

And even if Nogrod is a wolf, and the real seer hasn't spoken up yet (and why should they, they're in no danger) then at least the true identity of the seer will be kept hidden and they can continue finding out roles.

This post sounds a bit like a cautious wolf.

++Sally

As much as I'd like things not to be so simple (blindly following the seer), it has to be done.

Again, this post gives a wolfish vibe. Seems like he's begrudgingly voting her...perhaps he's not happy about it because she's his mate.

[Brinniel]

Nogrod is more agressive than normal and not bringing anything new to the game, but is that a good enough reason to lynch him on day 1? probably not.

Legate seemed resonable, but then there is small inconsistensies. . .

I think I will go for a person I have not been able to read at all, you know people who have posted, but you feel completely indifferent about their posts.

That would make my list look like this:

Kent
Kath
Isabel
Brinn
Lhuna
Wilwa

Of these Isabel seems to be the most careful. . .could be a sign of an evil doer trying not to expose her self. (Or it could just be a day 1 post)

So basicly this vote is 98% random.

++Isabellkya

All players on that list are innocent. Coincidence? Or perhaps the list of a wolf?

I knew I did not have a good case and that more often than not, it is an ordo who is lynched on day 1. . . Why would I go out and try to convince everyone to vote Isabel, when I was not at all sure of her guilt?
I am only obligated to tell why I vote as I do, I don't have to campaign for others to do the same.

A lot of back and forth with Nogrod and defending himself. Could be the response of an innocent or wolf.

++Eönwë

His way of playing so far don't sit right with me. He needs to say more about what he thinks and not just comment on what other people say. The only problem I have with voting this way, is that I have a feeling that this could just be the way Eönwë plays, no matter if he is bad or good.

Eonwe was at risk of getting lynched that Day, though considering he was the first to vote him, they could still be wolves together.

Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.

and

Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.

. . .wait. . .forget it, the only thing I can conclude is that the scenario Sally = Seer, Nogrod = Wraith is not likely.

My problem is that I can easily see Nogrod as a wraith bluffing, but the same goes for Sally.

He's very reasonable in his posts regarding the possible scenarios of yesterDay, but also a bit careful.

[Brinniel]

Meh, they all look like possible wolves to me. But from looking back at their posts, the most suspicious to me is:

++Eonwe

Someone should take a look at the known wolves' posts. I would, but I really need to get to bed, so I'm afraid this is all from me.

[Nerwen]

So, leaving aside Nienna, who may be evil but who I can't see getting lynched toDay, we've got Shasta, Rune and Eönwë.

Firstly, I don't see why Shasta is sliding off people's suspicion-lists. Sure, his behaviour is almost too obviously wolfish... but so was Sally's!

However, I talked about Shasta yesterDay, and now I want to say more about the other two.

Basically, yesterDay they both did a "minor-Shasta", in that they came up with implausible theories of Sally's innocence. (Or, in Eönwë's case, a "they're all in it together" scenario.)
Now, Nogrod may think well of Eönwë for refusing to "blindly follow" his lead in lynching Sally... but I beg to differ.

For my part, I can say that I was not simply following Nogrod's lead. Did anyone say, "Yeah, I'll lynch Sally because Nog says so"?

No. Her behaviour was highly suspicious... so much so that the wilful blindness of these three to it looks very bad indeed. (Of course, it has to be innocent in at least one case!)

True, Rune and Eönwë did not go all out defending Sally, but here's what they did say:

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

There is also the possebility that Sally is the seer and deliberatly chose to give wrong information about Nogrod. so that the wraith would think her an ordo. That way she could get 1 wraith lynched (Lhuna) and one more dream before revealing that Nogrod was a baddie.

To be fair, he does conclude that "no possible explanation makes sense"... so he could be trying to feel his way through different possibilities.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

To me these two scenarios are the most likely:

Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.

and

Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.

. . .wait. . .forget it, the only thing I can conclude is that the scenario Sally = Seer, Nogrod = Wraith is not likely.

My problem is that I can easily see Nogrod as a wraith bluffing, but the same goes for Sally.

Now, by this time it had been pointed out multiple times why Sally's behaviour was extremely unlikely to stem from a desire to help the village. So even if it wasn't self-evident to Rune, he's got no excuse simply to ignore the points already made by others.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, this just seems a little strange to me... if he wasn't the seer (well, as far as we know), I would definately be going after him. Seems like a slip. Why would he be suspecting Lhuna every now and then? Like he's trying to distance himself from her. Nogrod being the relentless WW player that he is would either mention her as seeming more innocent, or would go after her, at least a little bit (because she wasn't his main target).

He then quotes me out of context in order to criticise my "strange logic", followed by:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

How about a crazy theory:
Nogrod, Nerwen (a "proven" innocent) and Sally/Shasta are all wolves and are just trying to confuse us. Nogrod puts Wilwa in the "proven innocent" category to gain the support of a true innocent (or possibly even a gifted- they're all still alive I believe).

Not very likely, but it's best to think of every option. If it is true, they're amazing.

Firstly, note that the "crazy theories" of these two (unlike Shasta's) seem to be aimed at the one thing that would really help the wraith team: discrediting Nogrod as the Seer and thus also taking away my and Wilwa's credibility as known innocents. (The second worst thing for the evil side, after being dreamed themselves, is to have such a high ratio of known to unknown players around that they'll get caught just by elimination.)

Now, I don't rule out that they may be genuinely worried that there's something strange going on (in fact, judging from the Night kills, there is something strange going on). Again to be fair, the wording of the quote of Nogrod's that Eönwë objects to does look rather wolfish.

That said, it just looks too much like they're throwing out these suggestions just to see if anyone will bite on them.

I'm particularly not rapt in this last bit (from the same post by Eönwë):

Originally Posted by Eönwë

also don't like the fact that everyone seems to be agreeing with everyone, even though the general idea is shifting throughout the Day. Something doesn't seem right there.

Oh really? Just because most people came to the logical and obvious conclusion that whatever Sally was up to, she had to be guilty?

EDIT: X'd with two Niennas.
EDIT2: Clarification.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh really? Just because most people came to the logical and obvious conclusion that whatever Sally was up to, she had to be guilty?

No.
People suspected Sally from the beginning. Then people attack Shasta. Yes, he did defend Sally a bit but only because no-one even considered that she could be innocent. I think he was making a point more than defending her. But that's not all I'm talking about. On a smaller scale there were all sorts of things that seemed to just suddenly spring out of nowhere and suddenly have everyone agree. Including the Lhuna thing where people suspected her and unsuspected her together (I'm going to need to reread and get some quotes, but that's how it felt when I came in)

Also, this uniformity is the same toDay. I know that the reveals seem like they make sense but no-one has even questioned them. This is partly what I mean about following. Where's the independence? Everyone just seems to trust anyone that "reveals". What if the real gifteds want to remain silent. What if one of Nogrod's "chosen ones" or me or Rune is a gifted and just doesn't want to reveal at such a risky time?

edit: x-ed

[Nienna]

On Eönwë:

Day One:

• Comes ish-late to day one (72)
• Tries to look at things from multiple sides (74)
• 'Ph’ discussion (83)
• Thinks Brinn vote for Sally looks suspicious, more ‘ph’ (88)
• Not sure about Kent (100)
• Votes Izzy at DL because he doesn’t want to kill Nog and he tends to vote Sally a lot and she turns out to be innocent (115)

Day Two:

• Thinks Kath was killed as a no trail kill/typical night one kill (127)
• Something about Eomer and being jumpy, does think Eomer speaks reason (198)
• Backing up what he said about Brinn’s Sally vote to Nog (209)
• Non-serious list 22 minutes before DL (211)
• Responds to Nog some more (213)
• Gives a real list 1 minute before DL: mixed feelings on Legate, Shasta he doesn’t have much to go on, Lhuna under his radar, doesn’t find Sally suspicious (235).
• Votes Eomer to save himself a self-proclaimed innocent at last moment to tie votes (239)

Day Three:

• Doesn’t think that people should blindly follow the seer, is inclined to think Legate guilty anyway, votes Legate (287)

Day Four:

• Would be suspicious of Nog if he wasn’t the seer, think’s Nerwen’s logic is strange on a Sally scenario, gives his own scenario with Nog, Nerwen, and Sally/Shasta as the three wolves (359)
• Has and clears up some confusion based on his thoughts of Sally/seer/wraith scenarios (365)
• Thinking his theory is less and less plausible but that WW is about theories (368)
• Votes Sally (384)

Day Five: Has not yet posted toDay


My thoughts are a bit mixed. I'm glad that he doesn't want us to blindly follow but his suspicions of Nog even though he thinks Nog is the seer are vaguely counterproductive. He has also had some strange and suspicious voting.

[Nienna]

These massive post by post analyzations are taking me forever. I desperately need sleep so I will finish the other two tomorrow but it will be later in the Day.