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#401 |
Animated Skeleton
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 34
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Double fail for me... Mira was innocent, and Nogrod was the ranger. Probably it's better for everyone if I stick with other people's suspicions, since mine are downright disastrous.
I'll try to work something out from the voting yesterday, at least... seems it's been figured why Nogrod was lynched instead of Izzy. (also, it's two days in a row that people go voting who I did after I go to bed... it happened with Fea, then again with Nogrod. Weird, at least ![]() |
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#402 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Nothing's really been figured out. We have speculation and theories, but Shasta's confirmed nothing and, if anything, the revelation that Gwath was in fact lynched randomly detracts from the theory that has been presented. Well, unless you go with my theory (which I'll get to in a bit) which works perfectly. But something tells me you won't like that one. Heh. Just because your suspicions aren't right doesn't mean you should stop trying. Give us a list or something, just flesh out what you're thinking a bit more, and I'm sure you'll be fine. ![]()
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#403 | |||||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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This is also discounting what others have said about the WQ having the ability to save someone. If that were the case than maybe whoever was the target looked innocent enough to the WQ to save. Quote:
What is more interesting about yesterDay's vote is that I think Izzy's retraction and vote for Nog counted but not Sally's. They were both at the same time and Izzy's put her and Nog at the tie. If we do think the WQ get's an extra vote or something here are who voted for Nog: Hansy Brinn the phantom Izzy in a retaction. Quote:
Brinn I did like your theories in this post as well. They did make sense and sort of go with my whole thoughts about not knowing really who the Black Knight protected Quote:
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Mira was also an interesting Night kill. Not going to lie I was expecting to find either Fea, the phantom, or Sally dead toDay. It makes me need to reevaluate some players. Oh and special vote: ++Agan Edit: x-posted since 395...the site stopped working on me.
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Choose treachery, its more fun!
Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 02-25-2009 at 01:23 PM. Reason: x-posting |
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#404 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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For Lari:
Heh I did say some people wouldn't be on it. And yes, you are an enigma. ![]() I asked Shasta, and my vote did indeed count. Everyone's counted, is what he told me, though that's all he told me, the little son of a mother. Don't worry, that was my first thought too, but it is not in fact the case. I'm always worried when Phantom, Fea, and such other crazy kids are around (Rikae too, and I just realized I've been completely ignoring the poor girl). I want to know why they haven't been targeted by either the black team or the Queen herself, since they obviously can't all be the Queen, and all of them couldn't have been 'saved' last Night even if they were evil. Very interesting to point out. Of course I'm surprised I'm not dead too, but the baddies usually keep me around and hope I get myself lynched for no good reason so I'm less surprised that I'm around than I am about the others. *shrug* Maybe they just think I'm cute?
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#405 | |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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#406 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Heh. Just call me Chekhov, love.
Oh, and I'm analyzing you currently, so stop posting so I don't keep falling behind. ![]()
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#407 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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All this means is that I'm beginning to think Izzy more guilty than not. I mean, the Black Knight could have protected her out of some selflish foolish reason, but now that I think that more over its more likely that's not the case. Edit: x-posted with Dury and Sally.
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Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 02-25-2009 at 01:39 PM. Reason: x-posted |
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#408 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Usually when the loudmouth attention hogs stay alive, it means they're either completely off track, or there is a baddie hiding among them. Which doesn't really make sense, since I think Fea and tp (particularly tp) look innocent, and I'm sure that I, at least, am not entirely on the wrong track.
The only reasonable explanation is that I'm evil. ++Rikae ![]() Durie, you mean Sally's the cobbler? Why so? By the way, Hansy's post above strikes me as way too apologetic-newbie-card-trying-to-look-innocent-ish. Reeks of it. He's not new to the game, and if Shasta knew it, it might have amused him to make Hansy evil and have everyone give him a free "newbie pass" for half the game. *grumbles* I'll try to come back with some actual analysis at some point. EDIT: X'd with everything since the Sally post I was responding to (about me, tp and Fea being alive). |
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#409 | |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Speaking of vote counting, could someone's vote have counted as two? Another post for you, Sally! ![]() |
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#410 |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Oh, I see that double-vote idea's already been put forward.
I could see switching my vote to Izzy... |
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#411 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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I am here, and I'm going to finish my lunch while I read what I've missed.
++Mr Bombadil! He is real to some people.
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#412 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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In an attempt to say that I really don't think, looking at things, that the WQ gets two votes but could subsitute the second place lynch for the first here's my facts to back it up. Day 1 was a tie and here are the votes for those tied:
Day 1 votes for Gwath: Steve Izzy the phantom Brinn Day 1 votes for Fea: Hansy Nog Gwath Sally So by reason these people should all have one vote because it was a tie. Randomly chosen. Day 2 votes for Nog: Hansy Brinn the phantom Izzy None of those people could have two votes. Hansy voted for Fea Day 1 and if he was the WQ then Fea would have died then. While Brinn and the phantom both voted for the lynchee on both Days, I still don't think that either of them has a double vote. Whether or not they are more than they seem is left to be seen. I'm more inclinded to think the phantom is innocent over Brinn though. I don't think Izzy is at all the WQ so there's nothing to say about her. Edit: x-posted with Dury and Izzy.
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Last edited by Lariren Shadow; 02-25-2009 at 02:20 PM. Reason: x-posted |
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#413 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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Excellent thinking, Lari!
phantom did mention that the whole "double vote" thing could have other stipulations on it, but now that we've gotten it confirmed that Day One was indeed a tie I'm inclined to think that the "double vote" was just a theory put out there which we've been focusing on entirely too much. Which makes phantom look even more suspicious to me, as he had to know that this theory would not be the first one that would spring to people's minds. In response to your "how do we know it implies?" comment: that's why I said "implies." Implies means you can make a logical conclusion that it is so, not that it is so. I have no clue why the baddies would diverge from a rational pattern of protecting themselves, but it's still a distinct possibility. No, onto Rikae's point about Izzy: I'm still not treating Izzy as an innocent. I'm decidedly neutral about her. But I do still find it odd that she got four early, non-bandwaggony-looking votes that were never gainsaid. Maybe I should just get off my Izzy-voter high horse; it looks as if no one's taking me up on it. Maybe I'm just crazy... Won't have time to look into anyone in any great detail until a couple of hours from now.
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#414 | |
Beloved Shadow
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Or perhaps there is someone whose vote doesn't count at all. Or maybe the WQ can, on one day, wave off the top lynch candidate. Or perhaps the WQ is immune to the lynch. Or to one single lynch. Or immune till she auto-dies at a preset time- Shasta: "You are the WQ. You cannot be killed, but will exit the game automatically after Day 4." There are quite a few possibilities, and only one chess piece knows the truth of it.
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#415 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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What if the White Queen can say "hey, this person's vote doesn't count"? I would suspect, in that case, it is a day-to-day pick of who doesn't count, and thus they can protect whoever they think their target will be going after. It's just another thought to throw into the pile.
I forgot to add that, conversely, they could choose someone's vote to count twice on a given Day.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#416 | |||||
Beloved Shadow
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![]() And we kinda sorta didn't kill him either. The lynch was wacky.
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#418 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
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At the same time, WereBeasts are allowed to keep their own counsel, have already discussed this among themselves (unless they're the Queen) and they know (although you may be the cobbler) that you're not one of them. I know you have a high opinion of yourself, but how much good do you really think you're doing?
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#419 | ||||
Beloved Shadow
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Now, if Fea and Izzy are Wolves then perhaps you have something, but I'm thinking they're not. Quite strongly. And for all you know those two are the White Queen and White Bishop, so would you still suspect me for saving them if that is the truth? Sorry dear, but not a great case. Though I promise if those two turn out to be bad that I will be lynched quietly without a fight. Quote:
![]() EDIT: punc
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#420 | |
Beloved Shadow
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EDIT: wrong person quote
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#421 |
Beloved Shadow
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Nearly forgot...
++Mith
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#422 |
Animated Skeleton
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 34
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#423 | ||||
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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So, right now... Voted for: phantom Probable Baddies: Sally Brinniel Izzy Maybe Baddies: Hansy Lari Mnemo Maybe Innocent: Rikae Fea Have no idea: wilwa Eonwe (who might be modfired if he does not vote today? :\) |
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#424 |
La Belle Dame sans Merci
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I do. More than the wolves, I'm reasonably sure anyway...
I've been watching the goings on while doing my illustration homework and I'd merely like to point out that the only two people who said anything at all interesting made me laugh at the contradictory nature of what they said, but I'd much rather not discuss it openly. Instead, I shall make a List. We shouldn't kill: the phantom, wilwa, Lari, Durelin We should let convalesce a bit more: Steve We should force more participation out of: Kath, Hansy We should lynch one of the following: Izzy, Brinniel, Sally, Rikae, Mnemo
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peace
Last edited by Feanor of the Peredhil; 02-25-2009 at 03:46 PM. Reason: x'd Dury |
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#425 | ||||
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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It definitely looks as if someone was protected during the night, though I don't think there is any certainty as to whom did the protecting. At first glance, to me it looks like the BK is the one responsible. Though with not knowing what the WQ is capable of; there is no ruling xer out.
I was thinking that maybe the WQ has something akin to an anonymous vote(s). Where during the night, they tell Shasta whom they want to place a vote(s) on the next Day. So, essentially they get to vote for more than one person each Day. It could explain it - rather than their own vote counting for more than one; which doesn't look like it quite fits. Though, if it were the case of an anonymous vote(s) deal; the first Day, they didn't place it for Gwath or Fea. But looks like they could've voted for Nog. Explaining why he was lynched over myself. Quote:
We have 13 players alive; 6 of which are ordos, and 7 which are "special". Which brings us to 8 innocents : 5 baddies. So I think we are dealing with a pretty slim margin, with room for very little error. Quote:
I keep forgetting that overall it is a chess game, rather than just plots. Rereading the other plots made this clear. That even if the save was due to the WQ - Shasta would mention either Sauron or Gandalf; since they are the players. Quote:
If it was because of the BK, I see no reason why they would be protecting someone other than whom is on their team. I suppose I could see them branching out and protecting the BP, but I think it a less likely possibility. Unless they were certain of the BP and whom the BP was helping out/working for. In the case of the WQ, they could've been protecting a baddie, or an innocent. If xe has protecting powers. Again, I think the only certain thing - is that the BQ did not get to kill someone last Night. My computer goes by the name of Huey. Now, that I've caught up. I will go analyzing some people and possibly make a list of where people lie in my mind.
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#426 |
Beloved Shadow
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Durelin- it is obvious you didn't read my vote explanation even halfway carefully. You'll notice that I said I did suspect him. Why do you keep saying that I didn't?
My explanation is that I thought Nog was not an Ordo (White Pawn). I was swinging back and forth as far as thinking him Gifted White or Gifted Black, and I was leaning slightly towards Black. Part of this was due to the fact that there were five of them versus three White Gifted. I was also reasonably sure he was not the Seer. So after mentally saying "Do it! Don't! Do it! Don't!" again and again I just sucked it up and went for it. The decision was made easier by the fact that I felt Izzy was White. Anyway, now do you understand my explanation, and will stop saying things about it that are the opposite of what I said?
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#427 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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My post #425 was crossposted with all of the posts; starting with Lariren's #412. The edit page isn't working for me.. again.
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#428 | |
Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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But at least re-reading that post I know now that you can't really blame me for voting you. |
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#429 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Blast. I keep getting interrupted but my Durie analysis is in fact coming.
Right now I'm still unsure about Brinn (to clarify, by unsure I mean I feel uneasy about her) so I'd definitely go for lynching her. Hansy as well. Phantom stays, at least for now, and so do Kath, Steve, Izzy (although I suppose I'll bend on that), and Lari. I don't feel comfortable enough lynching them, so while I won't go out of my way to stop a lynch for most of those players I won't support it either.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#430 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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Alrighty, so here's my list. I have two of my own White Queen theories that I'm also just gonna put out there, whether or not they've been suggested or not I'm not sure.
So I considered the role of the Queen in a real chess game, and they can do anything, go in any direction, lots of freedom lots of power. So I'm think prehaps the WQ is a ranger, seer and a hunter, and maybe as the ranger they can protect people from being lynched during the day, and maybe the WQ was protecting Izzy and that's why it got bumped down to Nog. Just a thought. My second theory is that maybe the WQ cannot be killed by us white pawns, and only by the blacks, and that would make Izzy the WQ. But I like my first theory and some of yours much better. Just putting it all out there. My list, I find myself suspecting almost everyone, 1-10 (1-innocent, 10-guilty): Durelin: Her early vote for phantom just freaks me out, maybe if it had been her last post of the day I wouldn't care but the fact that she's still posting a lot, I think she should have held off. 7 Fea: hmm, she's slowly starting to get me to lean bad for her, but definitely not enough to vote for her toDay. 6 Izzy: I was very sure of her yesterDay, and I still am, but her getting out of lynching definitely doesn't clear her, so that makes me just unsure, I think I'd like to wait and see what happens with her toNight. 5 phantom: He seems a bit off his game to me, maybe not quite as calm and collected as I remember him, but for now I am still a 5 Brinn: I still find myself very confortable with her. 3 Sally: Her post I quoted before still weirds me out, she's kinda starting to really bug me, I'm definitely very tempted to vote for her toDay. 9 Lariren: Still find she's very tip-toey, but still nothing huge is sticking out at me, participates more then I do so she's still mostly on my good side. 5 Rikae: Same as Brinn, still very comfortable with her. 3 Mnemo: my my, still don't feel good about her, may vote for her again today 8 Hansy: hmmmmm......wish I had more to say about him, but I'm afraid I do not. 6 Eonwe & Kath: consistently MIA, that just weirds me out 7 Therefore I will be voting for either Sally, Mnemo or perhaps Durelin, later on toDay. For the next few hours I will be poking my head in here and there before I cast my vote. oh and for Shasta: ++Mith (thank you Sally!) X'posted, with everyone since Fea
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Last edited by wilwarin538; 02-25-2009 at 04:58 PM. |
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#431 | |
Beloved Shadow
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#432 |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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[highlight ] whatever you want to type [ /highlight]
Only without the spaces within the brackets. ![]()
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#433 | ||
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Returnèd
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[QUOTE=Mnemosyne;586541]Also, I hope Eonwe and Durelin are both back and in working order! We can't give silent players a free pass forever, even though they're having RL troubles.[QUOTE] Well, I'm back. Yes sir, I am. My head's still a little fuzzy, but I'll see what I can do. PS. Sally, is it just me or are you playing a little riskily (and I don't mean for yourself)?- Or are you the Black Pawn?
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#434 | |||||||
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Hehe! Quote:
Interesting dialogue with/about Fea, though. I'd love to look into their interactions more if I get a chance. Quote:
As I said before I find Brinn's vote suspicious as well, and I find it interesting the way she reacts to the voting. I'll agree; too many times if it's a tie between two people some of us just vote to save our friends, and it's a horrible werewolf strategy. Quote:
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Yay! She likes me! ![]() I think her list leaves a bit to be desired, in that many of the people she has in the suspicious categories seem very clean to me. I guess really all that means is that one of us is very wrong. Heh hope it's not me. Quote:
Covered this. Moving on..... Quote:
Hun, my life is a non-sequitor. Wow. I feel like most of this post has been defending myself, which is rubbish because I'm innocent. In short I know Durie suspects me and she's a tad hung up on me and Phantom but for now she isn't posing a threat to the village at large so I'm not terribly suspicious of her.
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Last edited by satansaloser2005; 02-25-2009 at 04:48 PM. Reason: left out part of my post. I just suck at life today lol |
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#435 | |
The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Yes, love, but don't worry. There's a reason for it. You know me, I like to cause enough stir that it tells me what I want to know. EDIT: Yes as in I'm playing riskily, not yes I'm the Black Pawn. I am a white girl and proud of it, kthnxbye. (And no, that was not meant to be racist, just in case anyone wondered.)
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#436 | |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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![]() With all the WQ stuff, my new crazy is that maybe the xe gets to choose who gets lynched in the Day the Night before. You never know. *Still reading this page (11)* edit: ah, and maybe the WQ only gets to do this for every other Night. edit 2: x-ed with Sally
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#437 | ||
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Really? Quote:
edit: x-ed with no-one. How sad! (and quiet) edit2: AND there are 5 invisible members around (not including me)
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#438 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Ok, I shall be voting shortly...
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#439 |
Beloved Shadow
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I keep forgetting to mention the kill- Mira.
I mean really... Mira? She sure as heck wasn't the Seer. And the Night before, Nerwen sure as heck wasn't either. In a sense, I believe the Black Queen and Black Pawn are helping us. I'm thinking that the WereWolves are making it a priority to avoid killing those two each Night, which has led them to make kills that are rather... safe. Surely that can be used to find our culprits.
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#440 | |
Beloved Shadow
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