Tol-in-Gaurhoth LVII - Chess Game for Middle Earth: Game Thread

[Lariren Shadow]

In an attempt to say that I really don't think, looking at things, that the WQ gets two votes but could subsitute the second place lynch for the first here's my facts to back it up. Day 1 was a tie and here are the votes for those tied:

Day 1 votes for Gwath:
Steve
Izzy
the phantom
Brinn

Day 1 votes for Fea:
Hansy
Nog
Gwath
Sally

So by reason these people should all have one vote because it was a tie. Randomly chosen.

Day 2 votes for Nog:
Hansy
Brinn
the phantom
Izzy

None of those people could have two votes. Hansy voted for Fea Day 1 and if he was the WQ then Fea would have died then. While Brinn and the phantom both voted for the lynchee on both Days, I still don't think that either of them has a double vote. Whether or not they are more than they seem is left to be seen. I'm more inclinded to think the phantom is innocent over Brinn though. I don't think Izzy is at all the WQ so there's nothing to say about her.

Edit: x-posted with Dury and Izzy.

[Mnemosyne]

Excellent thinking, Lari!

phantom did mention that the whole "double vote" thing could have other stipulations on it, but now that we've gotten it confirmed that Day One was indeed a tie I'm inclined to think that the "double vote" was just a theory put out there which we've been focusing on entirely too much.

Which makes phantom look even more suspicious to me, as he had to know that this theory would not be the first one that would spring to people's minds.

In response to your "how do we know it implies?" comment: that's why I said "implies." Implies means you can make a logical conclusion that it is so, not that it is so. I have no clue why the baddies would diverge from a rational pattern of protecting themselves, but it's still a distinct possibility.

No, onto Rikae's point about Izzy: I'm still not treating Izzy as an innocent. I'm decidedly neutral about her. But I do still find it odd that she got four early, non-bandwaggony-looking votes that were never gainsaid.

Maybe I should just get off my Izzy-voter high horse; it looks as if no one's taking me up on it. Maybe I'm just crazy...

Won't have time to look into anyone in any great detail until a couple of hours from now.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lari

None of those people could have two votes.

Yes, they could've. If it's a power that can only be used once.

Or perhaps there is someone whose vote doesn't count at all.

Or maybe the WQ can, on one day, wave off the top lynch candidate.

Or perhaps the WQ is immune to the lynch. Or to one single lynch. Or immune till she auto-dies at a preset time- Shasta: "You are the WQ. You cannot be killed, but will exit the game automatically after Day 4."

There are quite a few possibilities, and only one chess piece knows the truth of it.

[satansaloser2005]

What if the White Queen can say "hey, this person's vote doesn't count"? I would suspect, in that case, it is a day-to-day pick of who doesn't count, and thus they can protect whoever they think their target will be going after. It's just another thought to throw into the pile.


I forgot to add that, conversely, they could choose someone's vote to count twice on a given Day.

[Mnemosyne]

Can we just shut up about any special voting powers the WQ may or may not have and start suspecting already?

...Yeah, I'm no longer torn.

phantom, the longer you keep this up the worse you look.

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Perhaps when I and others do analysis and offer possibilities and such, we're well aware that the WereBeasts are reading them and looking for ideas, and perhaps we're not saying everything we think and/or know in order to mislead them.

I know. There are a number of things that I'm not surprised haven't been brought up.

At the same time, WereBeasts are allowed to keep their own counsel, have already discussed this among themselves (unless they're the Queen) and they know (although you may be the cobbler) that you're not one of them. I know you have a high opinion of yourself, but how much good do you really think you're doing?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Dur

the phantom - I think he's being subtly bold. Kath said "he's too laid back, too not involved to be something important" and that's basically why I suspect him a bit. I think the manipulating will come when it needs to, and otherwise he's playing it cool. But what does that mean? Not sure.

Originally Posted by Dur

Remember how I said the manipulating would come? Well look what happened yesterDay!

And I manipulated how? I was barely around in the final stretch. Only one Nog vote came from me, and technically it shouldn't have been enough to accomplish a lynch. I wish I knew what manipulation you are trying to credit me with, because truthfully I consider it a compliment when somebody tells me I have successfully manipulated people. Explain your compliment please, Dur.

Originally Posted by Dur

Even if I'm wrong, and he's not a werecreature, he deserves it for all this saving people nonsense.

Really? It's bad to save people?

Now, if Fea and Izzy are Wolves then perhaps you have something, but I'm thinking they're not. Quite strongly. And for all you know those two are the White Queen and White Bishop, so would you still suspect me for saving them if that is the truth? Sorry dear, but not a great case. Though I promise if those two turn out to be bad that I will be lynched quietly without a fight.

Originally Posted by Dur

was protected by phantom the Black Knight (*points to arrow icon*)?

The arrow icon shows up in every post I've ever made on the Downs.

EDIT: punc

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mnem

I know you have a high opinion of yourself, but how much good do you really think you're doing?

We'll find out when this is all over. I'm pretty certain I've already done one rather good thing, but we'll see.

EDIT: wrong person quote

[the phantom]

Nearly forgot...

++Mith

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by phantom

And I manipulated how? I was barely around in the final stretch. Only one Nog vote came from me, and technically it shouldn't have been enough to accomplish a lynch. I wish I knew what manipulation you are trying to credit me with, because truthfully I consider it a compliment when somebody tells me I have successfully manipulated people. Explain your compliment please, Dur.

The whole "oh, is poor Izzy doomed" thing. Trying to save people at the last minute for no apparent reason is manipulating. The "what can we do, who can we vote for" thing that always seems to happen at the end involves manipulating. But I don't care about that. It's barely there, you're right. What I DO care about is you're silly explanation toDay about how you though Nog was innocent, and even thought maybe he was a gifted! Oh, but maybe he wasn't, so you voted for him to save Izzy...why? I guess because she seemed more innocent? I've already ranted about that I think. Though actually you're only reason stated yesterDay for voting Nogrod was "because you felt like it".

Originally Posted by phantom

Really? It's bad to save people?

Once again, I already did my spiel about that. You voted for someone you thought was probably innocent to save another person who you thought was probably innocent.

Originally Posted by the phantom

The arrow icon shows up in every post I've ever made on the Downs.

Sorry, in any other contexts I don't bother to read your posts.

Originally Posted by the phantom

We'll find out when this is all over. I'm pretty certain I've already done one rather good thing, but we'll see.

I think you need a new strategy! You're not the Good Wizard, there is no reason for you to be so bold.

So, right now...

Voted for:
phantom

Probable Baddies:
Sally
Brinniel
Izzy

Maybe Baddies:
Hansy
Lari
Mnemo

Maybe Innocent:
Rikae
Fea

Have no idea:
wilwa
Eonwe (who might be modfired if he does not vote today? :\)

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Though I promise if those two turn out to be bad that I will be lynched quietly without a fight.

Really?

Really?

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

phantom did mention that the whole "double vote" thing could have other stipulations on it, but now that we've gotten it confirmed that Day One was indeed a tie I'm inclined to think that the "double vote" was just a theory put out there which we've been focusing on entirely too much..

Cobblerish tactics, I say! (not you Mnemi btw) Though I won't accuse one of many phantoms of cobblerism. Yet.

edit: x-ed with no-one. How sad! (and quiet)
edit2: AND there are 5 invisible members around (not including me)

[Eönwë]

Ok, I shall be voting shortly...

[the phantom]

I keep forgetting to mention the kill- Mira.

I mean really... Mira? She sure as heck wasn't the Seer. And the Night before, Nerwen sure as heck wasn't either.

In a sense, I believe the Black Queen and Black Pawn are helping us. I'm thinking that the WereWolves are making it a priority to avoid killing those two each Night, which has led them to make kills that are rather... safe.

Surely that can be used to find our culprits.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mnem

I'm torn. On the one hand I want people to analyze so I can analyze their analysis. On the other hand I'm afraid this is going to keep us from our actual job, if not help the wolfiekinses (in case they're not all Gifted by Divine Grace with Brilliance and Intellectual Superiority like phantom).

Perhaps when I and others do analysis and offer possibilities and such, we're well aware that the WereBeasts are reading them and looking for ideas, and perhaps we're not saying everything we think and/or know in order to mislead them.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ok, just woke up here , bear with me - but why on earth is everyone suddenly treating Izzy as if she is some sort of known innocent? We don't even know why she wasn't lynched, and the person lynched in her stead was the ranger, and yet you all assume she's good? Did I miss something?

Of course Izzy is innocent. Pure as the wind-driven snow. She was left alive for us to lynch. And that conclusion is based upon an indisputable undeniable fact- the fact that I'm completely guessing and could be wrong. But let's pretend like I'm right.

Originally Posted by tp

There's Fea, me... um, Fea, and.... me. And Fea of course. A regular VIP show right there, wouldn't you say, m'dear?

Originally Posted by Fea

You trouble maker.

Oh, but you love me, don't you?

Originally Posted by Fea

Why does everybody always kill Nogrod?

I'm almost certain it wasn't everybody.

And we kinda sorta didn't kill him either. The lynch was wacky.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Oh, but you love me, don't you?

I do. More than the wolves, I'm reasonably sure anyway...

I've been watching the goings on while doing my illustration homework and I'd merely like to point out that the only two people who said anything at all interesting made me laugh at the contradictory nature of what they said, but I'd much rather not discuss it openly.

Instead, I shall make a List.

We shouldn't kill:

the phantom, wilwa, Lari, Durelin

We should let convalesce a bit more:

Steve

We should force more participation out of:

Kath, Hansy

We should lynch one of the following:

Izzy, Brinniel, Sally, Rikae, Mnemo

[the phantom]

Durelin- it is obvious you didn't read my vote explanation even halfway carefully. You'll notice that I said I did suspect him. Why do you keep saying that I didn't?

My explanation is that I thought Nog was not an Ordo (White Pawn). I was swinging back and forth as far as thinking him Gifted White or Gifted Black, and I was leaning slightly towards Black. Part of this was due to the fact that there were five of them versus three White Gifted. I was also reasonably sure he was not the Seer. So after mentally saying "Do it! Don't! Do it! Don't!" again and again I just sucked it up and went for it. The decision was made easier by the fact that I felt Izzy was White.

Anyway, now do you understand my explanation, and will stop saying things about it that are the opposite of what I said?

[Isabellkya]

My post #425 was crossposted with all of the posts; starting with Lariren's #412. The edit page isn't working for me.. again.

[satansaloser2005]

Blast. I keep getting interrupted but my Durie analysis is in fact coming.



Right now I'm still unsure about Brinn (to clarify, by unsure I mean I feel uneasy about her) so I'd definitely go for lynching her. Hansy as well. Phantom stays, at least for now, and so do Kath, Steve, Izzy (although I suppose I'll bend on that), and Lari. I don't feel comfortable enough lynching them, so while I won't go out of my way to stop a lynch for most of those players I won't support it either.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by tp

Durelin- it is obvious you didn't read my vote explanation even halfway carefully. You'll notice that I said I did suspect him. Why do you keep saying that I didn't?

Ahh, yeah, I mixed up things you said yesterDay (or maybe even the Day before...they start to run together...) with your post toDay.

But at least re-reading that post I know now that you can't really blame me for voting you.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I said several hours back,

Originally Posted by Fea

We should lynch one of the following:

Izzy, Brinniel, Sally, Rikae, Mnemo

Since then, I've decided that Mnemo ought to stay (there was something that she said to the phantom that made me want to keep her around to watch for another day, to see what I learn from it) and I also don't want to kill Rikae, because she's done nothing to set off my radar that I can think of, and believe me, I'm thinking of a good many things.

I don't want to jump on the Sally-wagon, because I want to find out what she's up to. While I agree with the phantom's irritated summary of what Sally's doing, I think of it more along the lines of "But that's what she wants you to think."

I'm voting

++Izzy

because when did we stop thinking there was something funny about her? Oh yeah, when there was a weird bandwagon against White Royalty to save her.

[Hansy]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Day 1 votes for Gwath:
Steve
Izzy
the phantom
Brinn

Day 2 votes for Nog:
Hansy
Brinn
the phantom
Izzy

Wow, just look at what those two lynches have in common... I think we may be up to something here.

(those red votes, what is a cameo?!)

[Isabellkya]

It definitely looks as if someone was protected during the night, though I don't think there is any certainty as to whom did the protecting. At first glance, to me it looks like the BK is the one responsible. Though with not knowing what the WQ is capable of; there is no ruling xer out.

I was thinking that maybe the WQ has something akin to an anonymous vote(s). Where during the night, they tell Shasta whom they want to place a vote(s) on the next Day. So, essentially they get to vote for more than one person each Day. It could explain it - rather than their own vote counting for more than one; which doesn't look like it quite fits. Though, if it were the case of an anonymous vote(s) deal; the first Day, they didn't place it for Gwath or Fea. But looks like they could've voted for Nog. Explaining why he was lynched over myself.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Of course, that's too much for an innocent to hope for. I think it's still in the Queen's interest to keep those wolves around for a little while longer.

I disagree. The only interest involved for the BQ to keep the wolves around longer - is the wolves.
We have 13 players alive; 6 of which are ordos, and 7 which are "special".
Which brings us to 8 innocents : 5 baddies.
So I think we are dealing with a pretty slim margin, with room for very little error.

Originally Posted by Brin

An interesting thought. Though, what does that imply? That Sauron is not only controlling the game but is in it as well? Bah, at this point I'm feeling like anything is possible...

I am beginning to agree with what I believe Mnemosyne and probably another said - that we can't seem to gain a certainty of understanding of what goes on behind the scenes and in front of us, based on the plots.
I keep forgetting that overall it is a chess game, rather than just plots. Rereading the other plots made this clear. That even if the save was due to the WQ - Shasta would mention either Sauron or Gandalf; since they are the players.

Originally Posted by Lariren

So this might be naive to say, but does it really imply that whoever didn't die is therefore evil? Yes it would make more sense for the Black Knight to be protecting the other baddies, but what if xe wasn't? I know its far fetched and such, but it is slightly possible. I have no idea why xe would do it. Maybe the other wolves thought they were safe enough for a Night? Not sure, but there is no assuming there that I can see. In my twisted logic that is.

I don't think there is an implication of whom got saved. Just that the BQ was robbed of her kill by either the BK, or the WQ if xe has protecting powers.
If it was because of the BK, I see no reason why they would be protecting someone other than whom is on their team. I suppose I could see them branching out and protecting the BP, but I think it a less likely possibility. Unless they were certain of the BP and whom the BP was helping out/working for.
In the case of the WQ, they could've been protecting a baddie, or an innocent. If xe has protecting powers. Again, I think the only certain thing - is that the BQ did not get to kill someone last Night.

My computer goes by the name of Huey.

Now, that I've caught up. I will go analyzing some people and possibly make a list of where people lie in my mind.