T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

IN THE PRESENT TIMES!!!

Fast, so that I don't x-post with too many. I may look more closely at the last few ones once more as soon as I post this, I just more or less skimmed through them.


Reading through the beginning of toDay: I am glad people think the same as I do...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, crap it all. I know. I bet the wolves were thinking something like: "Why is Nogrod making such an issue about Dury's ranger impersonation? Maybe because... he's the real ranger!" I think that'd make a lot of sense. More sense than any other explanation I'm coming up with at the moment. (His posts are not seerish, he would not actually make a good no-trace kill etc.)

That's what I thought and still think.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, well, well.

YesterDay at deadline, I thought only one of two things could be happening: either I'd found myself (again) in a village consisting mostly of cobblers, or a lot of people were once again IM'ing while werewolfing, doubtless with alcohol involved. On second thought, though, I suppose it's just a matter of one wine-drinking, sleep deprived Noggins, one Mac who didn't wish to die, one cobbler ready to get herself lynched, and a couple of newbies without enough experience to recognize the insanity of it all (except Berry).

And that's also more or less what I thought.

Once again: Fea is a Cobbler. Mac is likely a Wolf. Do not listen to anything Fea says. That would be the best for us all, I am sure.

Beregond voting Mac makes a good impression on me, likewise his first post toDay.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I agree Fea seems very unlikely to have the village's best interests at heart. How can you be sure she's the cobbler rather than a wraith, though? I'd guess it took more than one baddie to make that lynch happen.

Of course. It took one Macwraith and one Cobbler-Fea.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Taking part in a joke discussion several hours later and without even having anything witty to say? If these carrot-potato things are supposed to be taken as hints, I'd be eyeing Rune very carefully...

I hardly think it had anything to do with hints. He simply commented on that because he liked that when he saw that. And, who knows how many bottles of window cleaning liquid had he had prior to that...

Some Mira and Lari could have been voting to "save Fea" because of RL friendship, however silly that is, I think. (That does not mean they are innocent, though.) The two of them have been slipping under my radar a lot (of course. They post far from often or long, and I have never played with them before), but I actually think a Wraith might be hiding there. I need to look at their votes for Dury yesterDay once more.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If Durelin had turned out to be a wolf... er, wraith, I'd have called that the worst slip ever. As it is, I don't know what she meant.

It's obvious what she meant. She was a Cobbler, not sure who is the Wraith and who not. Maybe she thought she's lynching a Wolf, maybe not. In any case, this is a clear signal.

I like Nerwen's analysis of the voting process, I have to agree with it. (I just hope Nerwen is not a clever wolf who had prepared grounds for that... but I am pretty certain there is at least one Wolf among these Dury-voters, or maybe likely two - Mac and somebody else, either Lari or Mira, most probably.)

I don't like Lari's posting: seeming fishy to me in some way.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Fea looks a bit like an evil mastermind. She puts the bandwaggon on its rails and does not hesitate about it one second, despite very questionable grounds.
Mirandir and Lari - synchronised werewolfing? They both make a list shortly before things get rolling, and neither suspects Durelin. They both defend Fea, they both change their minds on Durelin, they both make a very similar vote post. It is inconceivable that this was planned, so not both of them are wraiths. A wraith-cobbler combo is possible. Newbieness exonerates Mirandir a little, but Lari gets no such bonus anymore.
Rune's desire to save Fea is out of proportion. Mirandir and Lari are her RL friends, so it's more understandable. I thought that maybe Rune was the seer and dreamt of Fea, but no way would a seer risk himself when his innocent dream is not challenged seriously, which Fea wasn't. Also, if he wanted to save Fea, why go after Durelin? Even if he knew about Fea's innocence, he must've realised that the reasons against Durelin were ridiculous. I remember that he stated something about "experienced players should know better". He is more than experienced enough to know that you lynch the people who act suspicious, not the people who act weird. Stupid lynches like that happen way to often. I suspect that Rune and Fea are companions.
Rikae and especially Brinn take the role of the voice of reason. I believe they are innocent. They could be smart wraiths, but for now, I don't think so.

And what Mac says is just baaad. I mean, he not even mentions the chance of Fea being a Cobbler (that could cause people who suspect her thinking: she's a Wraith, and thus, lynch her - giving the Wraiths one more free day in exchange for this little sacrifice), instead he throws one more possible Cobbler in front of us (to confuse us, likely?), what more, he tries to pair her up with Rune, who looks innocent to me (cf. above). This way, he possibly hopes to widen the losses: they are BOTH baddies, let's get rid of her AND him after that, as well!

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Now if we were to try to lynch Fea toDay, I'd be more for it than anyone else(unless maybe Mac or Rikae because, well, Mac has been sort of saved twice now and some of Rikae's posts are making me wonder).

But we don't want to lynch her: We want to lynch a Wolf. And Fea is most likely a Cobbler. Of course, it's good to get rid of her, but even better is to just stop paying attention to her at all, and find and lynch the Wolves.

I see Mac has again been posting lists and candidates for why Nog was killed, good, nice, but again: offering questions and options does not really help, quite the opposite. It creates confusion in the village, people disperd, which is just what the Wolves need.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

So what I was thinking was this: I have nothing much else to go on. Then I refreshed the page a lot. Right before Fea had poster her vote I had pretty much made up my mind to vote for Durelin. I had no other good suspects. Durelin was the best option at the time for me, I don't know why, maybe my mind at almost 1 AM is not the best thing. Ergo I decided to vote for her. Rune then jumped in while I was refreshing the mad posting so it looked like I was listening to him.

Think I’m suspicious all you want, but I also voted Durelin on Day 1 for the same reasons. I don’t know if that makes me stupid or what.

Lari's vote for Dury is something I like not, and her explanation is something I won't buy easily. She could have wholly made that up. However, the fact that she voted Dury both Days speaks in her favour: that would be quite some luck. Unless... maybe I will re-read the voting again once more.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Mac: Two options I see: Fea is innocent and set up by the wolves/wraiths to be lynched by us. Possiblity. Second option she is guilty, decided that to throw suspicion away from other wolves/wraiths she should sacrifice herself and be lynched.

And you don't mention the possibility of Fea being the Cobbler. Which is what I think she is.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

So I just wanted to point out to everyone who thinks that the Seer dreamed of Fea and she was reveled as Ferny, that that isn't possible. The Seer could dream of Ferny all xe wanted, but it would come back as an ordo.

Okay, did anybody say they think that (like I say, I just skimmed through the last few posts, so I may have missed that), or if not, why are you saying that?

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, did anybody say they think that (like I say, I just skimmed through the last few posts, so I may have missed that), or if not, why are you saying that?

I saw a bunch of people say "seer-dreamed" and "Fea seer-dreamed cobbler/Ferny". It seemed to be a trend. I thought I would point it out.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

As for my suspcions: you(Mac) are high up on my list. Actually, it's you and Rune. It's not an attack, but you're posts don't read right to me.

As our dear dead comrade Nog would have said, "I mean this looks so baad!" Since when do you suspect Mac, Lari?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But I was wondering if I should take Rikae seriously, or not. So I don't think being unsure there is suspicious. Or newbieish.

Okay, why not. (Unless you are a wolf ) But to those of the Wise, like myself, it was obvious it is not serious.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I saw a bunch of people say "seer-dreamed" and "Fea seer-dreamed cobbler/Ferny". It seemed to be a trend. I thought I would point it out.

Okay... I probably missed that. Care to say just who, besides the case with Rikae, mentioned that?

[Lariren Shadow]

Clearly I need to read more throw posts before just jumping to the end. And not watch and movie and try to read for my history of England class at the same time as WW, therefore:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And you don't mention the possibility of Fea being the Cobbler. Which is what I think she is.

I don't mention her being the possible Cobbler because, the way I see this game, there is no Cobbler. Ferny is an Informer. Ferny doesn't get to know the role of the person they tell the wraiths/wolves to lynch. While I don't think xe is on our side, I don't see the connection between a Cobbler, who gets to know what role the person they spy on is plus is clearly on the side of the wolves/wraiths and Ferny, the Informer, who gets to pick one person they think the wolves/wraiths should kill each night, but don't get to know the role of the chosen player. To me at least, they are entirly different roles.

I said it before, Ferny may be on the wolves/wraiths side, but could easily be a thorn in their side.

[Rikae]

Day 2's voting:

Durelin voters:

Fea:
First she echoes Noggie's bizarre reasoning. Now she's trying to pass her vote off as a revenge/joke vote, but she was obviously trying to give some people (read: newbies) the impression that Nog's theory had merit here (just after saying that it's useful to discuss the ranger's identity!):

Originally Posted by Fea

I just can't figure out why ordos would set themselves up to be lynched unless they're taking one for the team in effort to set up a bandwagon so the people later on can analyze what happened?

Originally Posted by Fea

Like... it just doesn't make sense to me.

I'm very tempted to vote Dury as I don't know what she's playing at. I feel like the Ranger wouldn't make a point of making herself wraith-bait.

Right before her vote, to Nog:

Originally Posted by Fea

It's occurred to me that I want to sacrifice a fellow wolf every time I play an evil role. But there never seems to be any support from my colleagues...

Perhaps Fea-cobbler thought Nog was a wolf sacrificing his fellow-wolf Durelin? Perhaps she was indicating to her fellow wolves that she intended to sacrifice herself (she continues “support my vote if you want”)? Well, anyway, enough about her. Obviously, a very suspicious vote.

Nogrod makes the one mention of lynching Fea that sets off all the save-Fea nonsense:

Originally Posted by Nog

I already said I was a bit reluctant to vote for Dury even if I have concerns about her but this might do it... Or are there people enough to lynch Fea?

Originally Posted by Nog

I just noticed this - Beregond to Fea:

Originally Posted by Berry

Responding to Fea: I don't see "taking one for the team" as bad, or unlikely, but it might be ill-advised in most situations.

Translation “Roger, cobbler tower”?

Lari:

Originally Posted by Lari

Ok, so even after a lot of thinking and really not going off of what Rune said, my vote is:

++Durelin

I know its IC voting, but part of me thinks that putting her as a wolf would have been genius.

Now, this is weird. Lari, what did you mean by “really not going off what Rune said”?

Rune:
votes Dury – supposedly as part of his irrational fear of Fea being lynched. What to make of that, though? Either Rune is nuts (well, more so than I already thought), Rune thinks Fea is gifted (and is nuts), or Rune is evil (and nuts).

Mira:
votes Durelin claiming her IC posting makes her suspicious. Today she's saying she wasn't following Fea, but in her vote post, she points to an earlier post for her reasoning, which is as follows (if I'm looking at the right post):

Originally Posted by Mira

I agree with Fea. Why would a Ranger make such a point of being out in the open? That's like screaming "Here I am! Come kill me!" That's just poor gameplay in my opinion. Unless, as Fea said, Durelin is playing at something else. Seems mighty suspicious to me.

Italics mine.

Mac:
votes Durelin. He's obviously trying to save himself, which tells us pretty much nothing about him.

Nogrod:
votes Durelin reluctantly. An innocent enough vote, even if he wasn't a known innocent by now.

Conclusions:
Fea: Outrageously suspicious.
Lari: Fishy
Rune: Who knows?
Mira: Slightly fishy.
Nogrod: Innocentish.
Mac: No read based on the vote.

And a non-Dury voter: Beregond: Fishy.

I'll continue in a minute with the non-Dury voters, who really need some attention.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't mention her being the possible Cobbler because, the way I see this game, there is no Cobbler. Ferny is an Informer. Ferny doesn't get to know the role of the person they tell the wraiths/wolves to lynch. While I don't think xe is on our side, I don't see the connection between a Cobbler, who gets to know what role the person they spy on is plus is clearly on the side of the wolves/wraiths and Ferny, the Informer, who gets to pick one person they think the wolves/wraiths should kill each night, but don't get to know the role of the chosen player. To me at least, they are entirly different roles.

I said it before, Ferny may be on the wolves/wraiths side, but could easily be a thorn in their side.

You're mistaken about the cobbler role, then. Cobblers normally know absolutely nothing, in addition to having no contact with the wolves. They are simply villagers who want the wolves to win.
Ferny is more powerful than the typical cobbler because he has a way of communicating with the wolves. What you're talking about is a sort of seer-cobbler hybrid, and not a typical role. (I've seen a few of those, though - had one in the game I modded, in fact. )

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Rikae

What you're talking about is a sort of seer-cobbler hybrid, and not a typical role. (I've seen a few of those, though - had one in the game I modded, in fact. )

...so the first game I was in(ie the last one) where the Cobbler got to know the roles of the people he spied on is not normal? A more Ferny type Cobbler is normal? Ok then. That's really news to me actually.

As to Legate: right now I can't find any besides Rikae though I do remember someone saying it. Or it could be my tired mind jumbling things together. Either way, I'm tired and hungry(and whinny apparently) and don't really trust my mind much at all(considering I just tried to spell "all" "a....").

[Lariren Shadow]

I've now decided to use the subject line when I need to respond to people multiple times.

What I meant about not going off of what Rune said was about not wanting Fea to die. As in that didn't influence my vote. The comment is at the bottom of page 11(I believe), Rune's I mean.

[Aganzir]

xnkfcc-lxnfä-Zxvkncx.kl

I made a case against Mira. I was just about to start commenting on the last quote I had from her when I accidentally managed to close my net browser.

The post was relatively long, although it wasn't the only thing I busied myself with during these two hours.

I am darn angry with myself.

It's 12 am, I need to wake up in seven hours and I'm definitely not going to remake it today.

However the conclusion I reached was that she was somewhat suspicious, but I don't know how much should be put on her newbieness. She bears watching.

I haven't read what's been posted for some time.

Off to do it now, then I just vote and go.

Argh.

[Thinlómien]

Why is nobody posting?

I'm doing nothing.

I'm telling myself that I'm thinking of who to vote, but I'm not. I have decided to vote sally but I'm waiting for some miraculous inspiration that would override my suspicion of her.

Or then I just don't want to go to sleep.

++sally

Done. I'll go to sleep soon. If the miraculous inspiration strikes, I will retract.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right. I will most likely not go much further for toDay, even though of course I am not willing to let people pass by and sleep under my radar, but my vote and my main focus for toDay is clearly either Mac, or if there's nothing better, Fea. But it is late and I will stay around for a bit yet, but just be looking on what is going around and posting on the present issues, and not going through the posts of somebody all the way.

[Rikae]

Non-Dury voters:

Rikae:

Votes for Greenie. I explained it at the time... nothing else to say. She's the best suspect I had at the moment (as for the comment about being tired of Mac being a baddie, I was trying to explain why I might be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt more than others are – because I want him to be innocent).

Agan:

Votes for Mac with reasons that seem pretty rational (suspicious comments he made, not wanting to vote for me or Lommy, her other suspects, thinking there is some connection between us, Mac, and/or Nog... although I don't really understand how she thought Nog was connected). I don't see anything particularly suspicious here.

Greenie:

Votes Nog.

Originally Posted by Greenie

In addition to his weird Golly-vote, that Dury thing just doesn't make any sense. It looks something like a crafted case that has failed (deliberately or not) to take into account a very significant factor which is, as Rikae already pointed out, the fact that Dury's role was mysterious cloaked figure or something like that. Dunno, somehow Noggins' behavior makes me think he's a wolf who's trying just a bit too hard.

Makes sense (well, I'm not sure what she means with the Gollum-vote thing), but perhaps a tad easy. Would an evil Nog make such a huge error? I didn't think so at the time, which is why I tried to correct him, instead of trying to lynch him.

Menel:

Votes Mac, with kind of a strange explanation (saying Mac and I want to distract the village). It's more or less typical Menel-posting, though.

Lommy:

Votes Agan because of her style and personal reasons. Not the greatest reasoning; perhaps too bad to be bad, if you know what I mean (unless the whole Agan-fixation is an attempt to avoid attracting attention and antagonizing other players...).

Brinniel:

Votes Fea, after saying everyone is going to cross-post. Very innocent looking vote, but could be one of those of a wolf using a Fea-sacrifice to look good, for just that reason. Her posts, however, feel sincere.

Durelin:

Votes Mac. Known innocent, trying to save herself, nothing to comment on there.

Berry:

Makes a point of not joining the Durelin-lynching mob, votes Mac. Could indeed be a wraith trying to make himself look good, if someone is.

Did not vote: Sally, Leggy, Nerwen.

Conclusions:

The only ones who could be taking advantage of being on the right side of the Dury lynch are Berry and Brinn, and Brinn, especially, doesn't look like it. There are some slightly suspicious things in the other votes, but nothing extremely so. The non-voters, of course, are in position to really slip under the radar and shouldn't be allowed to do so (the only one of them who looks suspicious to me right now is Sally, though).

It does seem like an evil Fea would make the following people worth more scrutiny:

Lari
Mac
Beregond
Mira
Rune

But as I think we can be more sure about Fea than any of those, she remains our best lynch for toDay.
(To Legate: if it were anyone but Fea, I'd agree with you on ignoring her... but I don't trust the village to be able to ignore Fea, nor do I think we can be at all sure she's only a cobbler).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

But as I think we can be more sure about Fea than any of those, she remains our best lynch for toDay.
(To Legate: if it were anyone but Fea, I'd agree with you on ignoring her... but I don't trust the village to be able to ignore Fea, nor do I think we can be at all sure she's only a cobbler).

Okay. I still say: consider Mac, though. Seriously.

However, I do not mind getting rid of Fea now, still better than another random ordo. At least we'll be done with her. I only hope we will be able to catch all the Wolves in the following Days one by one and get rid of them all. (Or even better, that Fea herself is a Wolf.)

I will hang around for a short while now, then probably vote and go to sleep. I will also post a list of people, probably, just my current impressions on everybody.

[Aganzir]

Sorry I am simply too irritated & tired (neither of which I was until I lost my post) to think about this any more.

++Fea

Because her death will probably reveal the most and because she's been behaving plain suspiciously.

It's possible I still pop in before deadline but I doubt it.

[Thinlómien]

*does not get any divine inspiration and goes to sleep*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't mention her being the possible Cobbler because, the way I see this game, there is no Cobbler. Ferny is an Informer. Ferny doesn't get to know the role of the person they tell the wraiths/wolves to lynch. While I don't think xe is on our side, I don't see the connection between a Cobbler, who gets to know what role the person they spy on is plus is clearly on the side of the wolves/wraiths and Ferny, the Informer, who gets to pick one person they think the wolves/wraiths should kill each night, but don't get to know the role of the chosen player. To me at least, they are entirly different roles.

All right. To be precise: a Cobbler is a person who is just an ordo, but is on the Wolves side (doesn't know anything about who the Wolves are), but tries to help them. Usually by wreaking havoc upon the village.

But there is a grain of truth in here, the Informer's role is more in trying to help the Wolves, giving hints about who the Ringbearer might be... but still, he can "Cobble around". I don't see as much why he should not do that, it's probably the best he can do to help the Wolves anyway.

But Rikae said something about Fea eventually being capable of being a "Wolf playing a Cobbler". May be so. But still, I believe there are others: Mac, for example; who are more likely Wolves.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post