T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Macalaure]

In one way Shasta's death is good, because, while it left no trails, its intent is obvious. We don't have to sort out a handful of trails and decide on each whether it means something or not, which usually leads to ten valid, but mutually exclusive conclusions.

I dont believe that the wraiths thought he might be the seer. Gollum, no offense, is not a likely Night1 dream and Lommy and her pack would have to be over-paranoid to think she's been dreamed of. Shasta's astrology-talk must have been obviously enough IC and no hint, I think.

I see these options:

1. The wraiths were under unexpectedly much Day1-pressure and chose a safe kill. this is unlikely, though, since there are better ways to divert attention.
2. The wraiths were under absolutely no pressure and the village was entirely wrong about each candidate. The trail-less kill was chosen to prolong this state.
3. The wraiths are timid by nature and didn't dare to assault anybody who even might leave a track towards them. (In this case, they might even have thought that Shasta was the seer.)
4. The wraiths are sportsmen who thought it was a good idea to keep those alive that talked more and kill those who talked less.

-While Option 1 is possible, I'd like to discard it for now - mostly because that goes along with my suspicions from yesterday (it would more or less mean that both Lommy and Brinn are wraiths).
-Option 2 only means that Lommy and Brinn (and me, of course) are innocent. The wraiths could be anybody else.
-Option 3 leads us, I think, to Lari, Mirandir, and Beregond, for (relative) newbieness, and to Lommy, Brinn, and maybe Lily, for being of a more timid nature. It exonerates villagers who are both daring and dominant, such as Legate, Rikae, Nogrod, and Nerwen.
-Option 4 points to Legate and Nogrod (not saying that everybody else is not sportsmanlike, but those two are most likely to make a point of it).

So much for valid conclusions that are mutually exclusive. That was before came to think about what it actually means.


I will next look whether I can learn anything from the voting and Gollum's death. Maybe I'll have more luck there.

Originally Posted by Rune

I really don't get why people always vote after the same pattern on every day 1, it is getting quite predictable. I can understand why Brinn and Mac votes for Gollum, nobody can be blamed for saving ones own skin. . .but that quite experienced players do it, that pussles me.

What exact pattern do you mean?

Originally Posted by Rune

Mac basicly did not wan't to vote for anybody, but especially not Lommy. . .for apparently no reason.

Lommy was in greater danger of gathering votes than Brinn was, that's why I mentioned her more.

Originally Posted by Rune

He advocates this, but nothing happens until Nerwen shows up and vote for Gollum.

Well, I was in danger of being lynched! Why should I have voted earlier and risked voting the wrong person?