T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Fea implicated herself. They would have had to be really, really good wraiths to force Fea to start a crazy bandwagon minutes before deadline. That has nothing to do with Nog's death.

No, that's silly. The crazy Durelin thing was totally my doing. I certainly don't blame Nog for it... I wanted to save Mac, and Dury was an easy target based on the persistence of her IC posting (which is another part of Day 1's that always annoys me; I always like Day 2's better because people start actually behaving like themselves instead of hiding behind fictional narratives).

My Durelin thing had nothing to do with the wraiths.

But I do think that Nog's death was an easy way to cast extra suspicion on me after I brought all that attention onto myself.

Besides, she claims she didn't expect anyone to follow her vote, so how was she saving herself or Mac anyway?

The fight is often more important than the victory.

Talking only about Fea, after all, would waste the Day.

That statement was totally calculated.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

No, that's silly. The crazy Durelin thing was totally my doing. I certainly don't blame Nog for it... I wanted to save Mac, and Dury was an easy target based on the persistence of her IC posting (which is another part of Day 1's that always annoys me; I always like Day 2's better because people start actually behaving like themselves instead of hiding behind fictional narratives).

My Durelin thing had nothing to do with the wraiths.

???
Um, yeah. Of course it didn't. Tell that to Lari, she's the one to whom I was responding.

Originally Posted by Fea

But I do think that Nog's death was an easy way to cast extra suspicion on me after I brought all that attention onto myself.

And now you repeat it. This Nog's-death-makes-Fea-look-suspicious thing has become quite the little meme, without anyone giving a reason for it. Perhaps you can?

[Rikae]

The next thing I do, I swear, will be to look at Lommy. I've been wanting to all Day, and keep getting sidetracked.

[Thinlómien]

Yes, Rikae, that was the quote I meant. Nogrod's death incriminates Fea because it removes one person who would clearly be suspected because of the Dury-lynch, and now the blame is bound to lay on Fea and Rune, and a bit on Lari and Mira as well although it's easy to make an excuse for those two. Simply, a wolf Fea would consider twice before making a kill that increses the procentual amount of spotlight on her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Now Mac, Lari and Lommy have all repeated this assumption that Fea is only suspicious because Nog died.

I haven't. I think most of the suspicion on her is because of her doings at the time of the yesterday's lynch - at any rate, that's where all my suspicions of her stemmed.


edit: xed with Brinn

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, Rikae, that was the quote I meant. Nogrod's death incriminates Fea because it removes one person who would clearly be suspected because of the Dury-lynch, and now the blame is bound to lay on Fea and Rune, and a bit on Lari and Mira as well although it's easy to make an excuse for those two. Simply, a wolf Fea would consider twice before making a kill that increses the procentual amount of spotlight on her.

No she wouldn't. Not when she was already making suicidal, obviously evil moves like the one she made yesterDay.
Not to mention Nog's death proves that it was possible for an ordo to be that mistaken, casting the whole bandwagon in a better light.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lari

Second option she is guilty, decided that to throw suspicion away from other wolves/wraiths she should sacrifice herself and be lynched.

In that case, at least one other wraith must have been under pressure yesterDay, because otherwise nothing would speak against attempting to survive as a team. If there's nobody in need of sacrifice, then there's no need to sacrifice, after all.

Who do you have in mind, Lari?

Originally Posted by Lari

I still have very little to go on with the posts, I still need to re-read things through, but is it always so bad to suspect Fea of anything?

I'm just noticing that you go from defending Fea, saying you have nothing to go on concerning her, and saying you would vote for her quite rapidly.

Originally Posted by Fea

I wanted to save Mac, and Dury was an easy target

I can't claim to be comfortable with this. Even when trying to save myself I at least try to lynch somebody who at least looks somewhat guilty, and not the first-best hapless victim.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Besides, she claims she didn't expect anyone to follow her vote, so how was she saving herself or Mac anyway?

Good point. I didn't notice that before.


Glad to amuse you, Lommy. I'm sure it will amuse you even more that I'm now more suspicious of her again.

Originally Posted by Rikae

First of all, like I said to Lari, I don't see how it sets her up.

It technically doesn't, but Nogrod's presence would have kept a lot of suspicion from going into her direction.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Secondly, if Fea is a wraith, she's a wraith who decided her time in the village was limited anyway, so she might as well go out in a blaze of glory, incriminating as many innocents as she could and making her companions look good.

Limited, yes, but making it one day longer is always desirable, so why needlessly shorten one's time?
Also, she didn't incriminate anybody, Lari, Mirandir, and Rune incriminated themselves by following her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

The most a living Nog would have done is offered a runner-up to Fea in lynchability

And why would the wraiths lynch somebody they had such a use for? Better to try to get Nogrod lynched toDay and let Fea go down toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Not to mention Nog's death proves that it was possible for an ordo to be that mistaken, casting the whole bandwagon in a better light.

Durelin had six votes. I think it's self-evident that one innocent was in there.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

No she wouldn't. Not when she was already making suicidal, obviously evil moves like the one she made yesterDay.

Voting Durelin out of the blue, you mean?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Not to mention Nog's death proves that it was possible for an ordo to be that mistaken, casting the whole bandwagon in a better light.

But no one never assumes a whole bandwagon to be evil. And if such a "better light" kill was to be made, why Nogrod? I think he would have got a bigger share of the spotlight than any of the others...

Originally Posted by Rikae

The most a living Nog would have done is offered a runner-up to Fea in lynchability, and he had a built-in excuse (Lommy's comment about drinking too much wine).

I doubt it would have worked... he would not have used it as an excuse himself, and I can tell you he did not drink that much (at least by the time I went to sleep ).

Originally Posted by Mac

Glad to amuse you, Lommy. I'm sure it will amuse you even more that I'm now more suspicious of her again.

Well now you baffle me.

[Rikae]

A look at the shady-she-penguin:


Post #41:


Looks very calculated, and caught my eye right off the bat. Summery: Setup looks good for the villagers, that's dangerous because we might be careless, so let's stop the banter and get serious, here, “maybe I'll start about that”: banterers are cobblerish, at least make some “useless and obvious “discussion of setting and roles instead.


So easy,calculated and safe.


#81 (I see Lommy also is a victim of the curse of always starting new pages !)


Lots of fluff about typos, horoscopes, “xe”, etc. Iffy suspicions toward Agan (mix of wolfish and innocent self), wishy-washy statement about Fea (“I quite like Fea's tactics...but it does also look like a terribly convenient way of wolfing around”). Niceness to newbies.


Lommy's still playing it very safe. I can't really judge her suspicion toward Agan, since it's based on knowing her really well. I suppose no one can really judge that suspicion, and it's unlikely to attract attention, making it quite a safe one.


Post #88


Calls Agan's question (about what weird stuff she says) “nit-picking dictatorship”. Kind of an odd reaction – has a bit of a wolf-on-wolf feel to it. Claims Ferny is no great threat and we shouldn't worry about him, insinuates Agan is Ferny for suggesting he is. A very sinister paragraph, as I pointed out earlier. Says pointing out Frodo-ish behavior helps the wolves (also misleading). Some defensive looking statements (“this looks suspiciously like a case”). Still, the way she goes after Agan – in two posts, first “weird stuff”, then elaborating, looks somewhat innocentish.


Post 91 – the “this end” phrasing in Mac's post. Honest mistake, I suppose, but could also be an honest-evil-mistake (looking for an easy lynch. She's been very focused on finding wolf-slips in this game).

- several short responses to people, nothing really noteworthy -


Votes for Agan, saying she's probably Bill or Frodo. I, unlike others, don't find this especially suspicious.


Conclusion for Day1: slightly suspicious, but not extremely so.


I'll have to finish this later – I'm holding a hungry baby.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay. I have just finished reading Day 2. Two basic things I conclude are written at the end of the post.

Now onto what I have read there in particular:

LG. Post 247: Is it so that there is nobody you actually suspect? Except for Sally, most people are either not alarming, or she has no idea about them.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

oh just a quick note about Frodo: Obviously people can play how they wish, but I always got the impression that Frodo was on our side. This should mean that he does not speculate in shifting sides and such, so Frodo should always act in a way that benifits his current team.

Just like Frodo did not consider letting the wraith stap him in weathertop so that he could becoe a wraith and join Sauron, however it was a risk. . .but not a choice.

Rune: Agreed and I could not say it better. (Even though I said that already before, and not just me, but some others as well.) That does not mean revealing rightaway, but some kind of trying to pass unnoticed by the Wraiths.

Rune seems innocent to me (and his post #254 seems good to me).

Aganzir seems more like innocent to me, and it may as well be that she really is, and not just pretends this time - like she often does. Where of course, one can never be certain... but I think she may be really innocent.

Mac makes some sense throughout the Day, but I believe if anyone, he is up to impersonating a sensible innocent while being a Wolf and wishing all the worst.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I see these options:

1. The wraiths were under unexpectedly much Day1-pressure and chose a safe kill. this is unlikely, though, since there are better ways to divert attention.
2. The wraiths were under absolutely no pressure and the village was entirely wrong about each candidate. The trail-less kill was chosen to prolong this state.
3. The wraiths are timid by nature and didn't dare to assault anybody who even might leave a track towards them. (In this case, they might even have thought that Shasta was the seer.)
4. The wraiths are sportsmen who thought it was a good idea to keep those alive that talked more and kill those who talked less.

-While Option 1 is possible, I'd like to discard it for now - mostly because that goes along with my suspicions from yesterday (it would more or less mean that both Lommy and Brinn are wraiths).
-Option 2 only means that Lommy and Brinn (and me, of course) are innocent. The wraiths could be anybody else.
-Option 3 leads us, I think, to Lari, Mirandir, and Beregond, for (relative) newbieness, and to Lommy, Brinn, and maybe Lily, for being of a more timid nature. It exonerates villagers who are both daring and dominant, such as Legate, Rikae, Nogrod, and Nerwen.
-Option 4 points to Legate and Nogrod (not saying that everybody else is not sportsmanlike, but those two are most likely to make a point of it).

Also, it is possible him offering these four options for why Shasta was killed was a way of him presenting some options to the innocents: "And now, choose, come all, come all! Do you want to believe X is a Wolf? Option #1 is just what you need! Or would you rather suspect Y? Come on, I am offering you this brand-new option #2! Go and lynch them!" etc.

The way Beregond reacted to this joke of Rikae's (her saying that she is the seer) - I don't like it. A newbie could ask if it was a joke, yes, why not, but the way he ends up thinking about it seriously... still, he is a newbie.

But what more, Fea was feeding it. She is obviously desperately trying to make the Wolves know she is on their side. Because otherwise, I cannot imagine HER - an experienced player - getting confused by somebody like Beregond (read: a newbie No offense, Beregond) and actually questioning this obvious joke! And I do not even stop to think that Fea could even consider this a serious revelation. Come on.

And Menel actually said a good thing about this:

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I'd suggest we keep any speculation regarding the Innkeeper/Seer to ourselves. Discussing Seerish comments openly just draws the wraiths towrd the true Seer, which isn't good. True, it may help to protect said person, but I personally think it wise to conceal the Seer's identity from xyr enemies as long as possible.

Which makes me think - was this an attempt from Fea to draw out the real Seer? Quite possible. Very possible.

And related, one more thing to Beregond:

Originally Posted by Beregond

But like you say it could be a red herring, or just in fun. Still, if that is true it's a strange statement as it doesn't help innocents much, does it?

I don't get this, is "red herring" any saying, or does it have anything to do with me? (You know, my role.) Like, if Berewolf could give hints to Fea Ferny, trying to communicate, like that I was the Seer, or something?

Mac's list in #326 is so "neutral" (in the sense: most people are "innocent" or "no idea about" or such), so that I can imagine it as a list of a Wolf trying to be on good terms with everyone, especially as it seems that he may be suspected by some.
(Which is, as I see, exactly what Rikae said in her post right after that.)

I have to ask, at this moment, why the heck was Mac not lynched yesterDay? At this point (where I am reading now), it looks so obvious! <= Okay, now I wrote this when I was still reading the thread, this is written when I am actually posting the post: I would not call that "so obvious" anymore, but still, he looks Wolfy enough.

And, okay, I haven't read toDay yet, but I can think of one reason (as I am reading through yesterDay) why Nog was killed: because the Wolves thought he is a Ranger. And why? Because they thought he is a Ranger and is annoyed by the fact that (according to him) Durelin was impersonating him. A normal person would not have taken Dury's "ranger impersonation" (in my opinion, and probably also in the Wolves' opinion, as I really don't get what Nog followed by that - that was really an obvious IC post) in any serious manner, but a Ranger could perhaps be more attentive and startled by that? However, it showed that Nog was not a Ranger after all. But I can imagine the scenario working like that.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Because it can be useful to have a good idea who is playing the Ranger role.

Which seems to be what Durelin's getting at.

What I can't figure out about this game is what's with the mysterious 'obvious' reveals so early on? Rikae playing seer, Durelin posting only in Ranger garb (and third person)... What is this about? Is it just a reignited desire for simple playfulness?

Or is there something secret going on with roles? Or like...

I just can't figure out why ordos would set themselves up to be lynched unless they're taking one for the team in effort to set up a bandwagon so the people later on can analyze what happened?

Like... it just doesn't make sense to me.

I'm very tempted to vote Dury as I don't know what she's playing at. I feel like the Ranger wouldn't make a point of making herself wraith-bait.

Geez! And again! Okay, I don't mind when Mirandir asks about debating about the Ranger, he is a newbie. But Fea AGAIN joins in a speculation which started (by a newbie's remark) about a Gifted's role! Gifteds are not to be speculated about! They are too valuable for the village to reveal, for Eru's sake, not unless there is any good reason for them to do that! Fea is not a newbie, she should know that. SHE IS A COBBLER! There can be NO OTHER explanation.

****

My two most important conclusions of Day 2:

1. Fea is an OBVIOUS Cobbler. Informer. Bill Ferny. Whatever you call it.
2. Mac is likely a Wolf. Wraith. Whatever you call it.

These two information, unless they get relativised by what I read today, are two basic things I would like to propose in front of you to consider. I really can't see how anybody can think otherwise (about Fea at least), and how people might have voted Durelin, for mostly quite silly reasons (need to look at that once again, but in general, saving Fea makes little sense - even though of course it is better to lynch a Wraith than an Informer, though - but when she was about to go already... people were actually saving her, that's what was the worst on that).

Now onto toDay and I will be with you in the present.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

In that case, at least one other wraith must have been under pressure yesterDay, because otherwise nothing would speak against attempting to survive as a team. If there's nobody in need of sacrifice, then there's no need to sacrifice, after all.

I agree - there may well have been pressure on somebody evil. Another thing Fea's death would shed light on, I'd say.

Originally Posted by Mac

It technically doesn't, but Nogrod's presence would have kept a lot of suspicion from going into her direction.

Probably not. Maybe I'm biased, though, since I thought he was innocent (having been the target of misguided-ordo-Nog cases before myself contributes to that).

Originally Posted by Mac

Limited, yes, but making it one day longer is always desirable, so why needlessly shorten one's time?

Simply put, I find it a lot easier to believe that Fea thought she may as well play kamikaze-baddie than to believe she made that attack on Dury innocently. All it took was for someone to feel under pressure, see a chance of bringing down a gifted, perhaps, who knows.

Originally Posted by Mac

Also, she didn't incriminate anybody, Lari, Mirandir, and Rune incriminated themselves by following her.

I think Fea had reason to believe her vote stood a good chance of being followed, with three (I count Lari) newbies and a chivalrous Rune left to vote.

Originally Posted by Mac

And why would the wraiths lynch somebody they had such a use for? Better to try to get Nogrod lynched toDay and let Fea go down toMorrow.

I mentioned that it was odd myself. However, I don't think for a minute such a use would outweigh, for instance, the suspicion that Nog might be the ranger. A wolf-Fea never expects to make it far, and would tell her buddies to sacrifice her.

Originally Posted by Mac

Durelin had six votes. I think it's self-evident that one innocent was in there.

I should have said "experienced innocents". At any rate, pretty much everyone but Fea had an excuse.

To tell you the truth, though, I don't think they made the kill because it makes the bandwagon look better. I'm just saying it's possible, in general, to put that kind of spin on it when an innocent who was part of a suspicious bandwagon is killed.

I'm most inclined to believe the baddies thought they might be killing the ranger, and, on the balance, didn't worry about protecting Fea (or rather, left her with only her not inconsiderable arguing powers to defend her) as a likely seer-dream anyway.

Of course, all this only applies to a wraith-Fea. She's more cobblerish anyway, but I wouldn't say she's certainly no wraith.

[Rikae]

Legate, whew, thank goodness somebody sees through Fea. I thought I was going crazy here. I do still say a wolfish Fea can act cobblerish, though (which only makes her a more attractive lynch, of course).

Mac... well, I don't think he's Ferny, and I don't think he's an ordo. Ergo, I'll let him fight his own battles. I focus on him too much in these games.

By the way, "red herring" is a saying. It means a distracting, false hint, basically.

I was going to finish looking at Lommy, but I'm finding her more innocentish anyway.... perhaps my time would be better spent looking at Lari.

It also occurs to me that this whole crazy situation could very easily allow some wolves to put themselves in a positive light simply by being on the right side of this Fea-Dury nonsense. In fact, I suspect that's one of the main purposes of the whole fiasco.

Be back later.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think Fea had reason to believe her vote stood a good chance of being followed, with three (I count Lari) newbies and a chivalrous Rune left to vote.

The only downside to this argument is one that you'll just have to take on faith: I had no idea whose votes were still outstanding.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At any rate, pretty much everyone but Fea had an excuse.

And what was their excuse, Rikae, "Fea started it?"

Good excuse...

Originally Posted by Lily

First the Dury thing, and then toDay pretty much all the discussion has been revolving around her.

That is distinctly not my fault. I mean, the Dury thing was certainly encouraged by me, but I've barely been around today, so no blame of the actions of others should fall on me.

Originally Posted by Legate

Once again: Fea is a Cobbler.

You say this with SUCH conviction. Just... y'all are so confident that you know my role, and you're wrong.

I'd just like to suggest that when you kill me and realize that I really am actually just an ordo who is far too dramatic to be content with ordinariness, that you take very close looks at those who lead the charge against me.

Originally Posted by Legate

Some Mira and Lari could have been voting to "save Fea" because of RL friendship, however silly that is, I think.

About this- while I totally believe that both of them would be willing to manipulate others by citing our RL friendship, I do not believe that they would have any hesitation at all to kill me, same way I wouldn't hesitate to kill them if I thought it was a good idea to do so.

Originally Posted by Mac

My point is that it was so foolish to seriously suspect Durelin to the point of voting at that point, that I can't believe that you, Fea, Lari, and Rune all did it out of honest intentions.

My intentions were honest.

I couldn't wrap my mind around the perversity of continuing to post in character at as critical of a moment as the time right before deadline.

I wanted to vote Rikae for the strange 'seer' actions of earlier, but didn't think I could get any support.

Therefore, Durelin as my last minute impulse vote. I figured, "Why not? The village will have less in character posting without her."

Today my suspicions lie most with those who are pushing hard for my lynching, namely Legate and Rikae.

I'm willing vote for for either, but leaning toward voting for Rikae, because she has a past (the seer thing) on my suspect list, versus Legate seems just to be following her lead.

Which may or may not be worse.

I'll be voting - unless something major changes very soon - for one of them tonight.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Also, she didn't incriminate anybody, Lari, Mirandir, and Rune incriminated themselves by following her.

Did we miss the part where I cross-posted with Nog, Lari, Fea, Nog again, and Rune? I had no idea what was going on with regards to any possible bandwagon jumping that has been speculated about. Furthermore, I definitely didn't vote Durelin because of Fea's joking revenge vote for Dury. Yes, we are friends in real life. Yes, I am a newbie. However, neither of those mean that I won't throw her under the bus if need be. Same with Lari.

I realize that sounds a little harsh. I apologize. I'm not in the best of moods at the moment and don't have much time for WW today. I will be back at least a few hours before deadline with something actually worth contributing (*fingers crossed*).

[Thinlómien]

Angels
Legate - still gives me no reason to suspect himself, seems sharp, honest and open. Actually, the only thing that troubles me about him is that he doesn't trouble me at all...
Mac - my gut-feeling says he's innocent, after all. Besides, he has made some good points in his defense, like for example that if he really was making wolf-slips all the time, he'd be far more nervous by now.
Nerwen - I just don't suspect her.
Rikae - despite the fact that I've disagreed quite a lot with her lately, I think she's innocent.
Rune - all the "proof" I've seen points at his innocence.

Gargoyles ()
Aganzir - I hate to admit this, but now that I'm less annoyed with her, I'm also less suspicious of her. I'm sure she really bears watching, though.
Beregond - seems sensible, calm and smart, but maybe indeed using the newbie-shield too much? I have to say I'm not too worried, though.
Fea - throughout the game, I've had a gut-feeling that she's not a wolf. And she does have very innocent posts. On the other hand, like discussed very extensively, she's been acting really fishily. But like I've said, it's unlikely she's a wraith - whether she's ordo or Ferny, that can be debated and to that, I have no answer.
Greenie - I don't know, currently I have the feeling I can't read her but she seems ok. (See? My suspicion of her fades with the general one... )
Menel - I have to admit I let him slip under my radar. Just because he seems innocent enough.
Mira - seemed very innocent on Day1, less so on Day2. I'd like to hear more of her.

Demons
Brinniel - I know it's silly she's stuck here, but I can't help it, it's just a gut feeling that she's up to no good. I have little actual rational reasons to suspect her but I just don't trust her. And no, it's really not just because of last game.
Lari - flip-floppy and not convincing. I'm worried, though, that she might become the "easy victim" for the lynch.
sally - I have a bad feeling about her, I don't like her chipper attitude and aplogising/flip-flopping. She has said some weird stuff, some I have even commented, but I don't remember them well enough to quote them here.

If I have time toDay, I'd love to have a look at either sally or Brinn to see if there are any rational reasons to suspect them. Probably at sally because she's evaded the spotlight far more carefully than Brinn...


edit: xed with Rikae and Agan