Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[the phantom]

Conclusions about Nog's voting guide-

1) On Day 1, the only possibility of a threatened WW was Gwath. If he is indeed a WW, then Boro would be a possible suspect.

2) On Day 2, the only possibility of a threatened WW was Nerwen. If she is indeed a WW, then Lommy would be a possible suspect.

3) Assuming Gwath is innocent, then Boro's decisive vote makes him look innocent.

4) Assuming Nerwen is innocent, then Lommy's decisive vote makes her look innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the phantom

3) Assuming Gwath is innocent, then Boro's decisive vote makes him look innocent.

4) Assuming Nerwen is innocent, then Lommy's decisive vote makes her look innocent.

I don't follow this logic. Why?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by morm

I must be going for a few hours but it occured to me that we haven't really heard from Shasta today, which is odd after he was so vocal at the start.

I have a theory on it. It probably isn't correct, but it's something that popped into my mind.

Early in the day Boro said this-

If I vote for you as a rep, does that mean I have your sworn word that you will lynch Shasta?

Now, if the WWs are at all worried about Boro as a potential Seer, this looks like a silver bullet right there (assuming Shasta is a WW). And even though from my vantage point I can tell you Boro is extremely unlikely to be our Seer, you can understand that the WWs would be much more paranoid about it, and therefore more likely to make errors on the matter.

So perhaps Shasta read that and thought, "I'm screwed. I'd best just not show up and say anything that would incriminate my fellows. Especially since the tide is turning against Boro anyway."

I'd say that the possibility is a longshot, but it's the idea that struck me.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't follow this logic. Why?

Because WWs tend to shy away from killing innocents right out in the open. WWs worry that there might be a backlash from causing the death of an innocent. When no WWs are on the chopping block, it would be better to put your vote elsewhere and let the Ordos do the actual lynching.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Because WWs tend to shy away from killing innocents right out in the open. WWs worry that there might be a backlash from causing the death of an innocent. When no WWs are on the chopping block, it would be better to put your vote elsewhere and let the Ordos do the actual lynching.

Well, could be. But I don't do that so you might remove it from possible proof of my innocence... and also, I believe I'm not the only person your rule does not apply to, so I wouldn't draw hasty conclusions.

[Thinlómien]

Is there no one but me and tp around?

Too bad, because I would have to decide who to vote and I have little idea. Some discussion would help but 1) it's difficult if there's just one person besides me around and 2) I'm not sure I want to talk with phantom of all people...

Maybe I'll go and do some rereading stuff...

[Kath]

Right, I'm a little worried that my suspicion of Greenie is based on just a dislike of her posting style so I'm going to leave her for now.

++SALLY

Is who I am going to vote toDay. She is not herself and that worries me a lot.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am around, but I am quit tired and pretty much just reading what is going on.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, I'm too lazy to reread all this flood-posting... This is a horrible village because it takes so much work to go back and reread stuff...

I feel like voting Ka or Ilya or Gwath. Or maybe sally, Rune or morm. No idea... Any (reasoned) preferences, anyone?


edit: xed with Kath and Rune

[Ilya]

I...wow. I have to go out again in an hour, but I'll try to catch up on what I can. Sorry I haven't been around today, y'all. Work ate me.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Any (reasoned) preferences, anyone?

Well, I don't have a vote, so I'm not sure my opinion matters.

But looking at those that you listed...

KA scares me in the same way people scare Nog... submarine.

Sally is much the same, which seems unlike her.

Gwath has been doing the same thing a bit, but I'm not wanting to see him gone purely because he's trusting many of the same people I am. Of course this could be the sign of a WW who knows precisely who to trust.

I flip-flop on Ilya constantly. But with the way she has shared opinions and been sensible, and because she's new, I hardly want to cast her out at this point. Yeah, yeah... she may be using Newbiness to her advantage. I know.

Rune and morm- meh. I like having them around to talk to. But of course that has nothing to do with Wolfishness. But morm seems to be making an effort, and his feelings seem genuine. I haven't as much a feel for Rune, possibly because I haven't played with him as much. I'd like to keep him around almost just for that reason.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I wouldn't draw hasty conclusions.

Like that you would be dreamed of in the first Days of the game tp... It was just the "yesterGame" Rune was the seer and he picked up the submarines or those who were hard to figure in the "middle" leaving the loudmouths to reveal themselves by actual posting and their action - and why bother as the fearsome enemies of the wolves that the people tend to trust for their stature get killed pretty soon anyway so it's a dream wasted. In the end-game one needs as many living innocents there can be. What's the worth of a known innocent who is killed by the wolves?

I mean I shouldn't be doing this but sorry, you should think of this a second time if you're an innocent. And in the same time I will be at least partly answering your concerns about my points on you yesterday.

So let's take this one fex.:

Originally Posted by tp

Once again, this quote is fairly straightforward. Brin said that Boro and I should never have brought up the ploy. I respond, giving her the reason that we did discuss it- to build further trust. A logical answer to the question, is it not?

That reason you give is plausible indeed. I can think of you two trying to bring forwards trust between yourselves and getting all the more assured about it (although I think Boro has some bad experiences with that from the past... ). That is possible. Sure. And logical.

But. How come you think we others might believe it - or why do you protest if we don't? How about a few bright wolves did the same and said to an innocent you, not part of that plot that is, that you must believe them because "You people wonder why we're trusting each other? Um, maybe because we're doing things to build trust"? You'd be head on with it, wouldn't you? Isn't that a bit circular reasoning to begin with? And why should anyone outside the circle believe what you say? We have only your word that you were "building trust" and not playing a scheme you had planned during the Night!

Do you take someone, anyone, by his word in this game tp? Do you? If I say my case is rational (which it is btw.) and I only think for the good of the village, do you trust that? Just because I say it is logical - and it is. Would you take me to my word if I said I'm annoyed because you don't trust my logical case?

You should know better. And I think you do. Good wolves are perfectly cabable of constructing sensible, rational, logical explanations of the things that have happened. So why do you think we should trust you just because you have a logical explanation to things?

My theory of you and Boro is a logical one as well - and I think fits all the details. So it's true... Surrender guys, you're caught!

But you say it's only one possibility, right? But so is you and Boro just finding each other innocent just one possibility.

You would disagree with my case of you two being wolves - whether it was true or not - with that it was just a possibility and not conclusive evidence or a known truth. Guess what I'm thinking about your story about you and Boro?


But enough of this. As I said, you guys are things for the seer to find out. We should not lynch you anyway.

I will listen to you but do not think I will believe what you say without a pinch of salt. Like Boro said: "I have some ammo loaded" if the seer turns out dead with no conclusive info. I have only scraped the surface now...

But so far I'll call it a truce - which I think it has already been for a while.

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod are you that desperate to get to my "might get lynched by me because of sheer annoyance" list to accompnay tp, Boro, morm and Greenie?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I should really write a letter to the editor to the 'downer...

I look forward to it.

And I've been wondering about Gil, and the fact that Fea is refusing to modfire him. What the heck does that mean? Surely he's not a WW- I mean, would she let him legitimately win this thing by not showing up ever again?

On one hand I feel like we should all just agree to ignore him and allow him to count for our favor (most likely) in the tally. But the thought of him winning like that... Gah! I just- I don't think Fea would've made him a WW in the first place.

But why not modfire him if he's just an Ordo?

Okay... I think Fea's just doing this to screw with us. I'm not going to recommend lynching him.