Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now you two are probably happy to know that this makes me more suspicious of morm who keeps insisting on Nerwen's guilt for rather flimsy reasons.

Where have I been insisting Nerwen guilt? This is a clear case of Boro's influencing you Lommy. I have said little today about Nerwen. I do suspect her but not what it was yesterday...have you missed the whole Boro/Morm saga? Now this isn't to ridicule you but I have noticed that Boro has been throwing out statements like what you just said all day. I can only imagine that you are now influenced by him. Check your reasoning on this Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Now this isn't to ridicule you but I have noticed that Boro has been throwing out statements like what you just said all day. I can only imagine that you are now influenced by him. Check your reasoning on this Lommy.

Looks like I'm just influenced by everything toDay. I really feel I'd better go to sleep, but I have to vote first and I want to vote wisely...

[the phantom]

Looking at Nog's voting records....

[mormegil]

I must be going for a few hours but it occured to me that we haven't really heard from Shasta today, which is odd after he was so vocal at the start.

[the phantom]

Conclusions about Nog's voting guide-

1) On Day 1, the only possibility of a threatened WW was Gwath. If he is indeed a WW, then Boro would be a possible suspect.

2) On Day 2, the only possibility of a threatened WW was Nerwen. If she is indeed a WW, then Lommy would be a possible suspect.

3) Assuming Gwath is innocent, then Boro's decisive vote makes him look innocent.

4) Assuming Nerwen is innocent, then Lommy's decisive vote makes her look innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the phantom

3) Assuming Gwath is innocent, then Boro's decisive vote makes him look innocent.

4) Assuming Nerwen is innocent, then Lommy's decisive vote makes her look innocent.

I don't follow this logic. Why?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by morm

I must be going for a few hours but it occured to me that we haven't really heard from Shasta today, which is odd after he was so vocal at the start.

I have a theory on it. It probably isn't correct, but it's something that popped into my mind.

Early in the day Boro said this-

If I vote for you as a rep, does that mean I have your sworn word that you will lynch Shasta?

Now, if the WWs are at all worried about Boro as a potential Seer, this looks like a silver bullet right there (assuming Shasta is a WW). And even though from my vantage point I can tell you Boro is extremely unlikely to be our Seer, you can understand that the WWs would be much more paranoid about it, and therefore more likely to make errors on the matter.

So perhaps Shasta read that and thought, "I'm screwed. I'd best just not show up and say anything that would incriminate my fellows. Especially since the tide is turning against Boro anyway."

I'd say that the possibility is a longshot, but it's the idea that struck me.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't follow this logic. Why?

Because WWs tend to shy away from killing innocents right out in the open. WWs worry that there might be a backlash from causing the death of an innocent. When no WWs are on the chopping block, it would be better to put your vote elsewhere and let the Ordos do the actual lynching.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Because WWs tend to shy away from killing innocents right out in the open. WWs worry that there might be a backlash from causing the death of an innocent. When no WWs are on the chopping block, it would be better to put your vote elsewhere and let the Ordos do the actual lynching.

Well, could be. But I don't do that so you might remove it from possible proof of my innocence... and also, I believe I'm not the only person your rule does not apply to, so I wouldn't draw hasty conclusions.