Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Boromir88]

I put up or I shut up, if not McCaber, I'll shut it.

[Nogrod]

Where is everyone? I thought there would be things to read as I wake up but hey, Fëa told us she's a bored ordo with a flu and Dury confirmed the ranger being in action... And that's all.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I put up or I shut up, if not McCaber, I'll shut it.

So you are actually going to follow this promise of yours?

[Isabellkya]

I unfortunately fell asleep after lunch, and just woke up about two hours ago.
Which will throw my entire sleep schedule off.

I'm looking at Nerwen right now.
Then going to look more closely at Boro and Mac to round things out.

[Macalaure]

Nogrod, my problem right now is that I simply don't have much to add anymore. It seems all has been said and without much new evidence, all we can do is decide what to do with the evidence we have. I'll try to come up with something productive anyway.

About your list up there

With your opinion of Nerwen I more or less agree.

With the one of Fea I don't. All the time you suspect Fea you ignore her fake seer reveal. That does not fit the idea of a methodical wolf, it fits the idea of a bored wolf who thinks she's not going to make it til the end alone anyway so she tries to have some fun and get herself lynched quickly. It's not impossible that this is really the case, but how many bored wolves have you come across so far?

The next four on your list are all looking good because of some kind of vote for or from a wolf. I keep on having the nagging feeling that either Sally or the respective one here simply made a mistake - maybe overlooked a vote and thus got the vote count wrong, or something of that sort. Because of this mistake, the remaining wolf is now alone, but can count on looking innocent. Sometimes wolves plan things like that, but it could also just have happened. I know I didn't overlook something, and I'd say Mith's vote doesn't look that way either. If you look at the surroundings of Izzy's vote more closely, however, it could be, and Sally could have gotten something wrong with her vote for Boro, too.

Now, Boro, he has Sally's vote going for him, but other than that I don't see anything in his voting record that makes it impossible that he's a wolf. I think you're too quick to discard him there.

Your opinion of Mith I agree with, for Izzy see above.

c) he has been consistently explaining in different analysis how he could have been seen as having lupine motives.

Yes, because nobody else has so far.


Oh, and a vote for a cobbler surely doesn't make one look automatically innocent like a vote for a wolf does - but it's still more unsuspicious than a vote to save a cobbler.



I guess I'll go and have a look at the voting yesterday and yet another one at the past possible wolf-on-wolf votes.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Nogrod, my problem right now is that I simply don't have much to add anymore. It seems all has been said and without much new evidence, all we can do is decide what to do with the evidence we have.

I guess that's a problem shared by everyone. Sad to say it won't be getting too much better in the future as the next two kills will probably be obvious and the lynchings aren't so valuable source of information as when there are at least two wolves around.

Originally Posted by Mac

Now, Boro, he has Sally's vote going for him, but other than that I don't see anything in his voting record that makes it impossible that he's a wolf. I think you're too quick to discard him there.

I'm not saying it's impossible (I indeed said it is possible) or am not discarding him. I'm only thinking his wolvery being a bit more unlikely than someone elses... Which doesn't help much, I agree.

[Nogrod]

I'm not sure if I can come back before the DL as our choir is performing in the underground stations in honour of the "Carless Day" festivities.

I'm torn between not-voting now and taking chances to vote with some added information later on or just voting now to be sure I get to do it...

Darn...

I have no good ideas.

I'm afraid it's Nerwen but somehow I'm very reluctant to vote her right now with no added info - she said she would be having more time toDay so I'd love to see it first (or was it just a way to try and withhold our hands?).

I'm getting the feeling that it's not Fëa - she looks more and more like... well a bored ordo indeed (not so much Mac's bored wolf ).

Mith I find pretty unlikely candidate as well.

I'm still thinking Boro a more unlikely candidate than likely but if he stays silent the rest of the Day just keeping his word from yesterDay I'd be ready to lynch him out of pure annoyance.

Voting Izzy or Mac now would feel like making a too hasty decision.


Where are you Shasta? As a known innocent you could do something to help us out...

How about we lynch him? The wolf needs to reveal something of her/his mindset by making an actual choice of killing earlier...

Bad joke, but describes the frustration right now to this most silent of Days...


Ok. I'm not voting now. I hope to be back before the deadline.

While I'm away, do something, please someone.

[Isabellkya]

Nerwen...

Day One
43 - judgement clouding mindless babble - Rikae, Lal
paranoid - Nog
attack others - Boro, Rikae
Wonder's about Gwath's comment about wolfRikae behavior


Seems to me, just innocent-esque banter/IC stuff.




Day two
199 - Shows how CoD only mentioned in passing prior to vote.
Vote tally and timing
Sally is odd; because she raises the suspicion on CoD, then plays it down.
Boro behavior is the most peculiar

200 - Asks [b]Gwath[b] to fix tags
207 - Comments on a couple of Lal posts. Lal's wolf feint theory doesn't make sense.

209 - Wonder's why a Brinnwolf would pick Kath as see
211 - WoW is less likely in CoD voting.
216 - Points out no retractable votes to Lal
238 - Gwath-Nog thing; no read on Gwath. Not keen on Nog/Mith jumping on him for a comment.
Had been testing Lal to see if she'd sprout fur.

248 - Corrects nilp
270 - votes Boro

Has some good points. I think focused on Lal a bit too much, meaning Lal did a good job of distracting villagers. I think a cobbler would at the very least, have a WW costume in their closet.


Day three
319 - points out why she voted for Boro day two. Wonders if someone could be that naive; in reference to Lal

324 - Wants to hear from Gwath voters.
Doesn't like Mith's grounds of voting Gwath

338 - Lal is running out of sight with a couple of things she (Nerwen) has said.
Banter

244 - Wants to hear Mac's thoughts on Lal, as well as anyone else's.
Mac appears most innocent. Suggest seer check him out if still alive the next day.

346 - Banter
372 - Clarifies about post to Lal WoW in terms of CoD is possible
383 - Lal is de facto Cobbler.
Votes Boro

388 - Agrees with Sally about Fea's "reveal"
396 - Calls Lal a newbie wolf, perhaps.
407 - Nilp is cobbler candidate #4

Why didn't you ask Nilp the reason he didn't dream of Mac?


Day four
450 - clarifies "de facto".
WolfSally clears Boro of lupinity

453 - Banter.
A Lal post confuses her, it is contradictory.

461 - Agrees with Boro's comment about WolfNog tactics.
Points out Nilp's seer claim and dreams

484 - Responds to Mac about Lal/boro deal.
Says she was hesitating between Boro and Lal.
Boro's suspecting Lal made it harder.

490 - Boro voted for Caber on very thin grounds.
Comments that half the village had mentioned Izz, Caber, Sally as wolves at one point - why point to Rikae as seer.

503 - vote tally
508 - Deciding between Boro, Lal. Fea is a puzzle.
515 - Votes Lal, because she has a chance of being furry.
where Boro is Cobbler at most, if Nog is right.

Were you hesitating between Boro and Lal because you wanted to see which way a/the bandwagon would go? #508, it seems you decided to choose between Lal and Boro simply because Mac said that is the way he was going.
#515 - you are trusting Nog, why?


Day five
548 - Nog's lack of faith disturbing.
Clarifying/defending herself.
Asks Nog why he thinks Nilp dreamed him.

550 - Points a Nog mistake.
553 - Responds to Boro. explains about vote.
561 - Takes a jab at Nog
564 - Replies to Boro about Caber
His saying Caber "has been caught" - is a big stretch.
Points out/comments on Nilp's dream targets.

568 - defending herself
574 - Thinking of voting Fea for weirdness. No time to make a case against her though.

583 - Won't defend herself anymore - doesn't see what against.
Jabs about not getting innocents lynched.
Keeps forgetting about Izzy

593 - annoyed
595 - Votes Caber. hopes Boro is right.

So, are you going to jab yourself today; for insuring an innocent got lynched yesterDay? This hoping others are right, and making your moves from them - is scratching me the wrong way. You've done it on atleast three occasions.

Day six
606 - First post for once.


All in all, I am not completely certain Nerwen is a wolf, but she is guilty of following others I suppose. Her case against Boro, I think could be summarized in her first voting for him.


X'ed with Mac.

[Mithalwen]

Oh "bother". I really assumed that CoD didn't want to steal Dury's end of game thunder and it was all over - or I would have made sure I got online.

Since the library isn't open today I will have less than an hour before deadline (other than now so I would be happy to have an extension since I am more or less back to square 1. But if I am in the minority no problem...

[Mithalwen]

Aiee I am more baffled than ever. Part of me remains sure that Fea and Boro are bored ordos but both are such good wolves that I can't be. Then Mac has seemed so cool throughout. And that leaves Issy and Nerwen and somewhere in that lot is the ranger. I am not asking for a confession since that would still help the wolf more than me but I shall bear in mind as I read through that oddness may be a mark of giftedness as well as wolvishness and hope I come to the decision.

And Boro if you are out there please speak.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Aiee I am more baffled than ever. Part of me remains sure that Fea and Boro are bored ordos but both are such good wolves that I can't be. Then Mac has seemed so cool throughout. And that leaves Issy and Nerwen and somewhere in that lot is the ranger. I am not asking for a confession since that would still help the wolf more than me but I shall bear in mind as I read through that oddness may be a mark of giftedness as well as wolvishness and hope I come to the decision.

And Boro if you are out there please speak.

Ah, but he promised to shut up, remember? And what makes you say he's bored? He went after McCaber yesterDay with such wonderful energy and enthusiasm...

If it helps, whoever the Ranger is, it isn't me. Also, I've found I may have to drop out of the game.

So if you get really stuck, you can lynch me safely. It will not get you a wolf, however.*


*This is not a bluff.

[Nerwen]

Well, since I'm alive toDay after all, I may as well look at Izzy myself.

Day One.

#47. Comments on other players:

Rikae would say she was an ordo if she wasn't. Asks her if she would vote herself on Shasta's say-so (re: Rikae's saying she wants to see how Shasta will vote, because she thinks he's psychic.)

Says Fëa is trying to bait people.


#82. Could see Shasta revenge-voting Boro. Says Brinniel (then under attack from Mac and Lal) need not be hiding anything.


#103. Comments that Shasta's attack on Boro might be a cover for a wolf.


Makes a self-described "throwaway" vote for Captain of Despair (wolf).


Day Two.

#160. Opens with, "Wow. What a strike of luck." Says her vote on CoD was "pretty darn random".

Says Kath's death looks like an attempt at a clean kill. Asks Boro whether it was Kath that he tried to kill in a previous game.


#194. Comments that Fëa has been baiting Shasta.

Says Nogrod is suspicious, and so is Boro for being "buddy-buddy" with Nogrod.

(Known innocents Nilp and Brinn also commented on their "chumminess".)

Sally was "contradictory" (re CoD on Day One).

Asks Durelin what happens in the event of a tie.

#204. Analyzes Nogrod (very nit-picky). Finds him somewhat suspicious, but doesn't know if she'll vote for him.

Ditto Sally (wolf). Finds her vote-list on Day One "forced", but her overall behaviour "silly" rather than wolfish.


#223. Says Lalwendë could be the cobbler.

#225

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Voting time..

++Nogrod

Day 3.

281. Wonders why Brin was killed: "the wolves could have gone with another trail-less kill".

List the Day Two votes.

Comments: "I wonder what it says about a person; who's top two suspects for at least a day and a half - both turn out ordo."

(I'm not sure who the "person" is here– I think she means Nogrod.)


#283. Asks Lalwendëwhy she's so certain the wolves are after her.


#316. Asks Boro if he usually "mimics" others' phrasing.


#320. Replying to Rikae's comment at 317: ("I don't like the way Izzy hangs around the fringes of things, occasionally "poking" at someone as if in an attempt to see if she can get suspicions flowing that way.")

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I'm not sure how analyzing Nog's and Sally's posts for a day and a half is considered poking.

It is a legitimate question which I posed to Boro.

You put Nilp on your naughty list for copying arguments, yet I don't see Boro there for that reason as well.

#349. Replying to Boro, clarifies what she meant about repeating people's phrases– she was referring to his use of "what the heck" two posts after she used it herself. Repeats that she doesn't like the interaction between Boro and Nogrod:

It gave me the feeling of two people out picking curtains, or a new couch - not wolf hunting.

I really don't know what she was on about there... but as I said, two known innocents also commented on them.


#359. Says she is debating whether to vote Nog or Sally– or perhaps Nilp "for his initial posts of copy". (Doesn't explain what changed her mind about Sally.)

Finds Lal "comedic". Says she could be anything.


After Fëa's bizarre "reveal":

#377

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Crap gotta go.
Just when things took a turn, oh dear.


++Nogrod



X'ed since 372.
I'm confused now.

Day 4

#449.(Referring to a post of Nogrod's on Day 3, where he mentions her among those whose excessive "consistency" might be wolvish):

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Briefly, I’d like to get this out of my system right away; since I’ve been simmering over it since yesterDay after work.

Goes on to ask why Nogrod hasn't listed Fëa and Boro as possible wolves for their persistent votes on each other. Concludes that he only cares about consistency aimed at himself.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I think you are guilty of this ‘consistency’, which you seem to be paranoid of.

I think, the only reason I wouldn’t vote for you today - is because WolfSally put you in the lead, for two days in a row.

But toDay, it looks like you've got some of the paranoia out of you.

#476

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Here is where my head is at, at the moment.

"known" innocent:
Nog
Shasta
Nilp

Looks pretty innocent:
Mac
McCaber

Cobblery:
Boro
Lal
Fea


undecided:
Nerwen
Mith


So my vote will go to one accused of Cobblery, or I don't have a read on.

X'ed with Nog, Boro, Mac.

#489. Analyzes Mithalwen, concludes that "there isn't a whole lot to say about her".

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

She posts a lot, but not much is said. She says her suspicions, but doesn't (as of yet) put in a lot of analyzing towards them. There are a lot of misreads/clearing things up between her and other people.

Says she will not vote her.


After Nilp's reveal:

#496. Says she will not vote for me, but will let the Seer check me out. (Huh? She'd hardly mentioned me before!)

Says votes for Lal or Boro would be throwaways.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Which leaves me with..

++Fea

Day 5.

#532 (commenting on Boro's MacCaber theory):

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I think a mixture of insane whack-job, running out of time, and it is crazy enough it could be true.

#549

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Since Lal died as the Cobbler, I suppose that puts Boro in a bit of better light. Leaving him either innocent or wolf. Though, Sally's vote for him on Day 1 is kind of bugging me.

(I don't know what she means by this.)


#575. Analyzes Mithalwen. Finds her vote on McCaber to be "a bit fishy".

Also comments:

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

In one of your posts #443; you say I was swift on Day two to "point out" that I'd voted for CoD. Yet here you are in #528, three posts after Durelin's; explaining why you voted for Caber. You'd already done so when you made the vote. So why again? If I was swift, then you were... break neck speed?

Analyzes Fëa– Or rather, she summarizes her posts, without analysis, except to say that her obsession with Boro is "unhealthy".

Concludes:

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Ugh.I'm torn between Mith and Fea.
But something tells me from what I've re-read/skimmed of Nerwen
My vote might go there.

Call me paranoid, if you will, but that strikes me as rather creepily opportunistic (Mac and Nogrod were after me at that point– this was before the Caberwagon).


#579. Votes me, based on"gut feeling".

Which brings us up to toDay.

General comments:

Hmmn. I've been ignoring Izzy, and more-or-less assuming she's innocent, based on the positioning of her vote for Captain of Despair. If one disregards that... there's actually quite a bit against her.

Rikae's remark at 317 sums Izzy up rather nicely. She mostly doesn't make cases against people, but rather seems to try and cast suspicion on them in a way that leaves her out of the action, and she changes her mind according to what way the wind's blowing. She's also a good deal more jumpy and defensive than I'd realized, and, as Mith commented, very quick to point out things in her own favour.

However, this may be her normal playing style as an ordo, for all I know– I don't think I've ever played with an innocent Izzy before.

Her correctly identifying a wolf and a cobbler looks a lot less impressive when you consider that she has at some point expressed suspicion of everyone in the village, (with– unless I've missed something– the exception of the first three nightly kills). EDIT: Of the three, Kath never mentioned her, Rikae listed her as "suspicious"... while, since Brin on the other hand mentioned her as "probably innocent", Brinn's death makes her look good (though this last also applies to Boro and to me).

Balanced against this, of course, is the glaring fact that she helped bring down a wolf on Day One, and with a particularly innocent-looking vote.

EDIT: X'd since Mac at 618. I had to go out halfway through posting this.

–I see Izzy has returned the compliment.

EDIT2: fixed quotes.

EDIT 3: Clarifying a comment.

[Macalaure]

Alright, I had a look at the voting yesterday and found nothing of interest.

I also checked the Day1-voting again, found Mith's vote as innocent as I expected. As long as the wolves didn't have some kind of mad plan, she's not a wolf.

I also saw that Sally only started to go after Boro when Boro already had 2 votes. Very unlikely she wasn't aware of that. Why would she go after her companion Boro but shy away from CoD? Of course one could also ask, why should she treat both fellows the same? Sally entertains Brinn as a second option (even a first for a while) to Boro, but decides against her in the end.
This just doesn't fit. Sally knew perfectly well what she was doing, so, again, unless there was some kind of mad plan, Boro is not a wolf.

Izzy's vote is somewhat fishy, though, as I said before.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm getting the feeling that it's not Fëa - she looks more and more like... well a bored ordo indeed (not so much Mac's bored wolf ).

I didn't mean it that way. I meant that if Fea is a wolf, she's a bored one (not a methodical one). Since bored wolves are rare, I think she's innocent.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Izzy's vote is somewhat fishy, though, as I said before.

Why? I missed where you said that before.

[Mithalwen]

So is that Nerwen 3 Isabelllkya 1

Really don't think Nerwen is bluffing .. is there a third way today?