Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

Wow. I expected to come home and find a couple of pages worth of yapping. But not so.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong.

So you still think the Cobblers might know each other? We'll just have to disagree on that then.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18?

Yes, and no cursed villager either. That does seem unbalanced.

But of course there is no Ranger either, and the WW Hunter has been changed to a Cobbler Hunter.

Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage

I think the Cobblers' ability to mislead us is worthless, because obviously at no point can they ever have concrete information about anyone's identity, and thus they cannot knowingly mislead us.

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

It is my guess that this is what Mac and Rikae had in mind when they chopped the WWs down to two. They were banking on Cobblers wasting a couple of lynches. If they're extremely lucky, three lynches.

The Cobbler Hunter has quite a decision to make. Go for people laying low, banking on catching a Cobbler who wants to make a move towards the end, or go for people who look likely to be lynched, because perhaps that is exactly what they want.

What the Cobblers actually do depends completely on what sort of person they are. Do they calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages?

We'll see.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Groin Redbeard

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

I hope that you lot are among the first of many to see such good sense. As the old almanacs will show, I've a mighty strong dislike for those who go around preaching that they will catch wolves, using their mighty skills on Day 1.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

I hope everyone's paying heed to this... on about Day 3 (if the Phantom hasn't died by then), pay close heed to his actions... and if they stay the same, kill him as a Cobbler.

Yes, yes the Phantom sir, we know full well that you are:

Originally Posted by the phantom

calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages

All of the above.

You'll calculate the odds, play it by feel, and make bold moves.

We'll probably have to lynch you by the end of ToMorrow, but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it.

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

Nerwen looked up from scrubbing the blood off the floor. "Um... yes... agreed... but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?"

EDIT: x'd with Formendacil.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Form

but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it

I doubt it. If you live, that would mean that you win, right?

So living to regret it seems to be impossible.

Originally Posted by Form

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.

Well, we'd better just call the game right now then, of course. We lose.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?

Absolutely.

[the phantom]

Okay, Nerwen, I suppose you deserve a more serious answer than that.

First- the Cobblers, if they take their roles seriously, have already thought of the Cobbler role much more than everyone else, and so it is likely that everything I pointed out is already known to them.

I am fully aware that perhaps one of the Cobblers might find my posts to be instructive, but I think it is worth it to make all of these thoughts known to the entire village, as perhaps it will help multiple villagers organize their thoughts.

And then there's this- listening to me could very well help them play better, but if they play according to my advice then we shall know exactly what to look for, correct? Ideas alone won't give the game to the Cobblers. They have to be able to pull off the moves better than we can spot them. I am trying to set up the way this village should be played, and then hope that I am able to play it better.

[Gwathagor]

I disagree with the phantom. There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can. As long as they are muddying the waters and inhibiting clarity of thought among the group, they are helping the wolves, since we're not likely to lynch wolves by accident, given the odds.

If I was a cobbler who was unaware of the identity of my fellows, this is what I would do.

[Gwathagor]

To clarify, I don't think the cobblers know who each other are.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Gwath

There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can.

You can only mislead when you actually know the correct direction.

If you have no clue as to anyone's identity, how do you know that the person in line to be lynched isn't in fact the Seer? So why try to muddy things up when perhaps things are already going well for the WWs?

People always go on about Cobblers causing confusion, but I don't buy it. The fact is, we already don't know anything. How more confused can you possibly get? There is no need to add extra confusion, and there is no guarantee that attempting to cause confusion would even help their cause, so what's the point? It seems like wasted effort to me.

However, you are right that there is a fourth major thing the Cobblers can do to help the WWs. But it is something that if brought up would probably help the Cobblers more than the village, because I really think that this particular thing is likely something that hasn't occured to more than a couple of the Cobblers.

[Gwathagor]

I disagree. You can mislead by obstructing rational thought, by presenting other options, by decreasing the odds that the right choice will be made. As you said: the cobblers are playing the odds.

[Brinniel]

Since I really have no clue on who to vote for, I'll categorise everyone into who I'd be willing to vote for and who I definitely won't be.

Possibilities:
Feanor of the Peredhil
Shastanis Althreduin
Eönwë
Nogrod
the phantom
Thinlómien

Not:
Formendacil
Nerwen
Kath
Nilpaurion Felagund
Durelin
A Little Green

Those in the not category are those who I think are ordo/cobbler or are absent toDay (and I want to hear from them before voting them). Durelin and Greenie are two I'm least certain about but I said I wouldn't vote them toDay and I'm holding to that...though it could change toMorrow depending on what happens.

But who do I suspect most among that list? Or should I go ahead and vote for someone I think is a cobbler?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I might go for Fea as she really gives me the creeps

Fea scares me too. Especially after what happened last game I played with her...if I'm remembering correctly.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I won't be voting Fea or Kath.