Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

My name is Indiana Jo- erm... I mean, Phantom, I'm an obtainer of rare antiquities, and I'm here to help!

*silence*

Oh, who am I kidding? I'm just here for adventure and loot. I hardly know any of you people. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them.

First, if I read the signs correctly, there are only two of them! Much nicer than three or four.

Second, they have helpers. But they don't know each other, so the Wolves are bound to kill one of them. And without even trying to we'll probably lynch one. And as that bloke in our dreams told us, we have a Cobbler Hunter helping us, and he's likely to peg one eventually. So forget the Cobblers. The Wolves are the concern here.

A couple of things- why did an unemployed bum come on this excursion. Up to no good I'd say.

And a pointless philosopher? What does he get out of this?

Or a blind astronomer? She's obviously not going to see anything of interest down here.

And neither is a marine zoologist. Very fishy.

I would suspect the absent minded professor's reasons for being here, but I expect she came by accident.

And what's a snowbird doing here? I thought they liked warm weather, not the frozen north. And how does he know so much about languages?

Lastly, what's Conan the Librarian doing here? Shouldn't he be extracting late fees by the point of his sword?

[the phantom]

One more thing- is it really smart for all of us to wear invisibility cloaks? It's really annoying trying to talk to people that you can't see. Plus it seems to me the WWs with their keen senses of smell and hearing suffer less than us from this lack of sight.

[Durelin]

Heroes? What heroes?

All we have so far is some braincase trying to convince us that our inner demons killed two people, and a scruffy looking treasure hunter with a head too big for his fedora.

And me. But I don't count. Don't trust me to discern the good from the bad, I'm only used to working with really dead people and their stuff.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

One more thing- is it really smart for all of us to wear invisibility cloaks? It's really annoying trying to talk to people that you can't see. Plus it seems to me the WWs with their keen senses of smell and hearing suffer less than us from this lack of sight.

That is one of the conditions of WW, you know.

edit: x-ed with Dury. And I meant conventions.

[the phantom]

The dynamics of this little pickle we're in are quite different than other villages I've heard of. I'm still trying to get my head around all the possibilities.

On one hand the Seer has less to fear. In olden times if you'd spot one WW you'd want to lay low and continue searching for another one, because there were many. This time if the Seer finds one WW then bang- we're halfway home. Heck, he may even come right out after finding one and just sort of assume that the village is competent enough to lynch one measly WW after he's gone.

If I were the Seer I'd be inclined to take that route. However, I can't help but think that I'd do that only because it would take all the pressure off of me and put it on the villagers, and I could kick back the rest of the game and say, "I did my part". Other people with more time and energy on their hands might be inclined to lay low and attempt to collect both WWs.

I'm thinking about it, and I'd say that taking the easy way out is probably not the recommended action to take in this village. However, laying absolutely low after finding one WW is also out of the question in this village. In a village with three WWs or more, it's worth the risk to forget about leaving clues and hints while you search for a second WW. But with only two WWs I don't think the Seer can pass up a WW so easily.

I'm not saying to scream it from the rooftop, but hint strongly enough that, should you die, the WW will be known beyond doubt.

As far as the Cobblers go, forget them. They have three shots at dying every cycle, and I can't imagine they'll dodge the bullet for long. They should be down to a manageable number shortly.

And don't be worried about a Cobbler leading you astray. They don't know any more than you, so they're as likely to be wrong as anyone. There are only a few situations where we need to pay attention to them. For instance, if one is pretending to be gifted. But that will only happen in certain situations and we can discuss it when one pops up.

[the phantom]

and a scruffy looking treasure hunter

Oh, and I suppose I'm a nerf-herder as well?

[the phantom]

That is one of the conditions of WW, you know.

Yeah, I've played once or twice.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Yeah, I've played once or twice.

I sort of knew that, in case you hadn't guessed.
And by the way would you like this authentic button that once belonged to Bilbo?

[the phantom]

trying to convince us that our inner demons killed two people

Ah, so that is what he was trying to say. Lost me completely. But then I was never much for philosophy. I prefer to solve my problems via punching.

Like that one time I went exploring in the Barrow-Downs. There are some magnificent treasures under those hills, but the wights that guard them- very tough customers, and they don't like parting with treasure. But I roughed them up nicely.

Or at least I would've if Tom Bombadil hadn't shown up and rescu- I mean taken care of them before I had the chance. Silly old chap. I had the situation completely under control.

[the phantom]

And by the way would you like this authentic button that once belonged to Bilbo?

So YOU are the one that took them?!

I travelled all through the caves of the Misty Mountains looking for Bilbo's lost buttons! I found the very door he escaped out of and nearly got captured by a pack of goblins, and came away with nothing to show for it! Grrr... I hate it when someone beats me to a treasure.

But yes, I'll take them. Talk to Kitanna. She handles trades and such for me. Has a knack for getting good deals.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Like that one time I went exploring in the Barrow-Downs. There are some magnificent treasures under those hills, but the wights that guard them- very tough customers, and they don't like parting with treasure.

Ah, so you show an interest in the Barrow-Downs, eh? Well I'll throw in Sam's belt buckle, the one he lost there. Half price and that's a good offer.

Anyway, where were we? Oh yes, about finding the werewolves.

edit: x-ed since tp's #14

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by phantom

Oh, and I suppose I'm a nerf-herder as well?

I tried to be a little subtle. A little...

So the cobblers can help lynch a wolf, and the wolves can always kill a cobbler. There's only two wolves and there's a seer.

This should be an interesting show! I only wish there were more risks involved for the cobbler assassin...or any risks at all for that matter!

Anyway, let's try not to lynch our cobbler assassin or seer today.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And what's a snowbird doing here? I thought they liked warm weather, not the frozen north. And how does he know so much about languages?

My dear the phantom, it's summer. This is the time snowbirds spend up north.

Though, granted, there aren't mosquitoes in Ariz... I mean, in Umbar.

And it's rather chilly.

Curse those dead Rangers for talking me into this! How am I supposed to get back to Annúminas in time for my motorcad... I mean, my waggon train, back to Ariz... I mean, Umbar? Dying on us like that, really! It's most inconvenient.

As for how I know so many languages? Are you insinuating, Mr. the Phantom, that we men of the land can't handle tough academics? The Valar know we have time for it, sitting there on our tracto... I mean, walking behind the plow.

Besides, I'm Dúnedain. Elvish languages are the only one I can read!

As for why I'm along... I'm a retiree. Sight-seeing tours are what we do!

Now, if you'll excuse me, my senior citizen's bladder ain't what it used to be...

[Lalaith]

Lalaith absently ambled into the group, rubbed her hair distractedly and peered down through her possibly non-canonical pince-nez.

"hmm...this is a pretty pickle. We have, let us see now...yes, two killers amongst us and four primed to aid them through bafflement and confusion.
Now, on this point, Nogrod my dear chap, I would like an explanation of 2.1.2.1, for while I am a professor of ancient lore and not mathematics, would you not say the ratio is 1:3 rather than 2:16? And while we are on the subject of bafflement and confusion masquerading as clarity and helpfulness, the Tractatus format is not easily beaten, eh?
Well, no matter.

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion

On this I am inclined to agree, at least while one is enduring them. But afterwards, they can be very useful, at an empirical level, when developing a hypothesis. But of course, we are seeking four cobblers as well as two wolves and on Day One it is remarkably easy for anyone to look like a cobbler.

why worry? They need to be left to the Cobbler Hunter

Now then, Indy-phantom, this seems somewhat glib reasoning. There are four of the wretches and for the Cobbler Hunter to catch them all is highly improbable.
I seem to remember a similar case, now, in the lore-books...let me think, Roa I think the afreet was named, she wreaked havoc around the group until she was caught and stopped. Four such determined mavericks at work, at once, would make our task near-impossible.
So, where was I? Ah yes. To sum up, those of us who are left tomorrow, and in the days that follow, need to sift through the records and attempt to distinguish between wilfully rather than just accidentally unhelpful behaviour, as well as the usual signs of wolvery."
At this, Lalaith wandered off, reading a dusty tome and muttering in truly stereotypical style.

[Groin Redbeard]

Then it was that Groin, who had long been silent, spoke.

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

[the phantom]

Wow. I expected to come home and find a couple of pages worth of yapping. But not so.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong.

So you still think the Cobblers might know each other? We'll just have to disagree on that then.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18?

Yes, and no cursed villager either. That does seem unbalanced.

But of course there is no Ranger either, and the WW Hunter has been changed to a Cobbler Hunter.

Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage

I think the Cobblers' ability to mislead us is worthless, because obviously at no point can they ever have concrete information about anyone's identity, and thus they cannot knowingly mislead us.

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

It is my guess that this is what Mac and Rikae had in mind when they chopped the WWs down to two. They were banking on Cobblers wasting a couple of lynches. If they're extremely lucky, three lynches.

The Cobbler Hunter has quite a decision to make. Go for people laying low, banking on catching a Cobbler who wants to make a move towards the end, or go for people who look likely to be lynched, because perhaps that is exactly what they want.

What the Cobblers actually do depends completely on what sort of person they are. Do they calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages?

We'll see.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Groin Redbeard

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

I hope that you lot are among the first of many to see such good sense. As the old almanacs will show, I've a mighty strong dislike for those who go around preaching that they will catch wolves, using their mighty skills on Day 1.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

I hope everyone's paying heed to this... on about Day 3 (if the Phantom hasn't died by then), pay close heed to his actions... and if they stay the same, kill him as a Cobbler.

Yes, yes the Phantom sir, we know full well that you are:

Originally Posted by the phantom

calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages

All of the above.

You'll calculate the odds, play it by feel, and make bold moves.

We'll probably have to lynch you by the end of ToMorrow, but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it.

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

Nerwen looked up from scrubbing the blood off the floor. "Um... yes... agreed... but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?"

EDIT: x'd with Formendacil.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Form

but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it

I doubt it. If you live, that would mean that you win, right?

So living to regret it seems to be impossible.

Originally Posted by Form

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.

Well, we'd better just call the game right now then, of course. We lose.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?

Absolutely.

[Nerwen]

Suddenly Nerwen, her pale face eerily lit by the blazing torch she carried, appeared in the gloom of the chamber's entrance.

"Oh, hello," she said, stepping carefully over the tragically mutilated remains, "I've just been having a look around, to see what I can find. No offence, phantom, but you and I are business rivals... and I don't think I want to purchase my treasures from a self-described seller of pointless fakes.

Now, this place echoes a lot, and I picked up quite a bit of this cobbler-related conversation as I made my way through the tunnels.

My opinion is that the much-talked about sentence

They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

means that the cobblers know of each other's existence, but not identity.

I will share further reflections with you once I've cleaned up a bit... I mean, it doesn't seem right just to leave what's left of our Rangers all over the place..."

And Nerwen started gathering up the pieces.

EDIT: X'd with phantom.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Groin Redbeard

Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

Slightly ironic, don't you think?


Ok, well at least more people have spoken up. But it's day one, so anything could happen.

And look at the post-counts. I wonder who's ahead :

the phantom 16
Nogrod 6
Eönwë 5
Gwathagor 5
Macalaure 3
Formendacil 2
Nerwen 2
Durelin 2
Brinniel 1
Groin Redbeard 1
Thinlómien 1
Lalaith 1
Shastanis Althreduin 1
Rikae 1

edit: x-èd with Lommy