Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't like the way tp is downplaying their dangerousness - even if they aren't our principal worry.

Yes, I am kind of downplaying them. If they somehow survive the slaughter early on they could certainly do some devilish things.

But, here's the thing- there's nothing we can do about that! I think we can all agree that we can't waste lynches on suspected Cobblers. So why worry? They need to be left to the Cobbler Hunter. But what if the Cobbler Hunter bites it? Think about that before you go spouting off "So and so is probably a Cobbler because of x, y, and z", for then the WWs will know precisely who to keep alive.

Anyway, it just seems to me that thinking about Cobblers complicates things. Odds say their numbers will decrease quickly. And even if several of them stay alive, they're worthless without WWs to help. We only need to lynch correctly twice! I would recommend focusing on that point.

[the phantom]

By the way, Nog, I'm not proposing ignoring Cobblers completely. As I stated earlier, there are certain situations where we will need to discuss possible Cobbler ploys, but right now is not one of those times. Right now they don't exist as far as I'm concerned.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Anyway, let's try not to lynch our cobbler assassin or seer today.

Heh- or as a demonstration of our complete ignorance, we could all vote for who we think is the Seer and stand just as good a chance of not lynching the Seer as always.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."

Indeed.

And I see that we really need to settle this quote, Nog.

They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

All right- let's talk this through.

I go down to the docks to watch for someone on a boat. It's very foggy.

I see a boat arrive. I see someone on the boat.

Question- does that mean I can identify the person? Pick their face out of a line-up?

Nope.

Seeing someone does not equate with recognizing someone.

The narrative says that not a thing was revealed. I would assume that identities would be included in that. They merely saw each other in the sense that they saw that there were other Cobblers present.

[Gwathagor]

Good morning, everyone. All five of us...

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion, so I'm liking the tone of constructive discussion that tp, nog, and eonwe have set thus far.

I have to go to the bank (it closes really soon), but I'll be back on later.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Yes, I am kind of downplaying them.

Well, at least he's being honest about it and not hiding under lists (especially those with fake latin names *hint, hint*).

And I agree with you on some point, tp. We only have two wolves, so if we aim for them, we're much more likely to win. And what are cobblers? Just misguidedd innocents. I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."

edit: x-ed since Nog's last non-list post. Sorry Nog.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, it just seems to me that thinking about Cobblers complicates things.

Sadly one can't just only "think of the wolves" either as they don't give themselves up to be thought everytime and then the other choice is to be just embarrased...

It is what people say and do that give you the cards you can and need to play with. Sometimes some people look really wolvish and you're more than happy to go after them but sometimes you're totally perplexed and lost as the wolves play so neatly that you have no clue about them.

So:
wolves = target #1
cobblers = target #2

Let's not forget our secondary targets as with the passing of Days they might become our target #1's.

I guess we're talking about the same thing tp but just from a different angle.

ToDay we need to go for a wolf. Or if we have a clear hunch for a cobbler and no idea about the wolves, then for a cobbler.

But just trying to ignore the cobblers (no, no, you're not saying it tp, this is just an argument) and taking great chances with a lynching of an unprobable wolf we're not at all at ease with, is folly as well. Let's just remember the cobblers would love to join any wagons suiting their hunches, the more so if they knew each other and could play it tactically... Knowledge is power here.

Originally Posted by the phantom

The narrative says that not a thing was revealed. I would assume that identities would be included in that. They merely saw each other in the sense that they saw that there were other Cobblers present.

I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong. I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18? Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage - with the cobbler-assassin and all? I'd say the presence of a cobbler-assassin speaks for cobblers to know each other and to form a major threat.

Hopefully the mods will enlighten us on this matter... or maybe it's their cruel plan to leave us guessing about it?

Anyway it's 2 AM here and I'm going to sleep. I will be back but tomorrow (RL) my evening is pretty full... I'll post and vote though and hopefully be able to hang around the deadline as well eventually.