Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Boromir88]

Shasta is reminding me of when I was the seer, wolf-Nogrod kills me and then steps in and twists what I said to convince everyone I dreamed he was innocent. Only, in this case Shasta is pushing for Kitanna's innocent. I've felt Kit has looked pretty innocent, but it always raises my brow when someone steps in to assure us who the seer dreams of, once the seer has been killed. (You can thank Nogrod for that).

Here are some things I do know. Durelin's been the seer before, and from past experience she likes to spend her Night 1 dream on a high-profile player. Someone who will probably be around for a while, talk a lot, and influence the village....someone like moi (and before that gets twisted - No, I'm not saying I'm innocent and Durelin dreamed of me).

Also, Durelin will leave clues for us to follow, knowing that any day she could be found by the wolves. So, I would guess she mentioned the person she dreamed of on Night 1 during the Day. The tricky part is finding the real clues, and whose identity she is revealing.

Eomer amuses me. He feels frighteningly familiar... Boro amuses me. A lot. There's something about Formendacil's attitude I like. Kitanna is boring, and her vote is even more boring. The Sixth Wizard amuses me. Nogrod's role is just too Nogrod. I want to see how long Nilp keeps his role up. Elf-warrior's first post amuses me.~Durelin, Day 1, post 60

Traditionally Durelin spends her first dream on a high-profile player and several of those players are named here. Eomer, The Sixth, EW, and myself all amuse her. We're all lumped together under "amusing her," so I doubt she dreamed (On Night 1) of any of us.

Now she says different things about Form, Nogrod, and Kitanna. She ends up voting for Kitanna, so I think that eliminates Kit. She mentions Nogrod's role (wannabe moderator) just fits Nogrod too perfectly, there's no feeling or statement of innocence/guilt, it's just a neutral statement. But, with Form she says there's just something about his attitude she likes. Is that our clue to her Night 1 dream?

I would say Form fits the type of player Durelin would dream about early on. Also, I would imagine each day she would leave us some hint as to who she voted for. She only had 3 posts on Day 1...her first post was completely RPG IC, there are no people mentioned, and so if there is a clue it's a cryptic one. That is something I will not be able to uncover. Her last post she votes for Kit on the grounds of stirring up trouble against Nerwen, and Durelin felt Nerwen was an easy Day 1 wolf lynch. On Night 1 at least she didn't dream of Kit or Nerwen.

Thus is it her 2nd post on the Day where she gives us the hint? She lumps several people together, makes a neutral statement about Nogrod, but with Form there's just something about him she likes.

As for her other dreams, Durelin (like any seer) would follow her suspicions, or dream of someone she doesn't know about. She missed Day 2 entirely, so on Day 3, there could be several clues to her dreams. Based on what she said, I have a feeling she had not dreamed of a wolf yet:

I want to look at:
Kitanna
Eonwe
Mith
Ka~Durelin, Day 3, post 252

I agree with Nogrod (and why I'm wary about Shasta's analysis), is why would Durelin say she wants to look at Kitanna if she dreamed of Kitanna and found her innocent?

Also, Nogrod and Boro haven't been getting nearly enough attention. But really, I feel good about Nogrod's vote, because I like sticking to principles. And I liked Boro's attitude on Day 1 anyway. Day 2 I need to look at...obviously.

Here she mentions the two loud-mouths, but I doubt she's dreamed of either of us. First off she says we have not been getting enough attention. Secondly her reason for liking Nogrod is very concrete (his vote), and for me, she is unsure. Also later on she would go on to say about Nogrod:

It just seems so right for Nogrod to be a wolf right now.~Day 3, post 298

I am going to assume for now that Rikae, Kitanna, Aganzir, and Boro are innocent, because they were at least sorta fairly consistently after Nerwen~Durelin, Day 3, post 295

Here are four people she's assuming are innocent. And she is assuming for now, another reason I don't buy the supposed fact that Durelin dreamed of Kitanna.

Now this is interesting:

Too bad Shasta and Eomer can't just duel and get a few things out of the way.~Durelin, Day 3, post 309

(bold - my emphasis)
When the seer dreams of another gifted, does the seer find out or is it just " ____ is innocent." I feel pretty embarassed because I've been the seer a few times and right now am having a total mind blank to whether the seer finds out the role, or just guilt/innocence.

Because then there is this from Durelin after Eomer reveals:

*sigh* Yes, yes, we figured by now you were someone important, the way you were acting...

Does Durelin sigh because one of our gifted had to reveal? The hunter is often times more dangerous when known then when unknown. Or does Durelin also sigh because she dreamed of Eomer, and thus found out he was the hunter...Hence why she leaves the "dueling" clue in post 309.

This doesn't look good for Shasta, but something I'm unsure about is whether Durelin dreamed of a wolf, because:

Well it took me absolutely forever to go back and read through things. And I am extremely clueless.~Day 3, post 295

Kitanna's analysis could be correct though, that she was onto at least one wolf, and the wolves wanted to silence her. This doesn't make Shasta or Mith look good.

I've probably cross posted with several of people, because this took a lot of time, so I'll just say it now.

[Mithalwen]

Usually the Seer finds out the exact role, some mods just say innocent/ guilty but that is usually stated in the rules.

Anyway back to work ...

[Mithalwen]

Oh I don't know sometimes warwar is more fun than jawjaw ... "String him up" is nice and succinct!

[Boromir88]

Boro, you shame us all with that wonderful post. Excellent stuff.~Eomer

Ya well now I might just scrap everything I've concluded about Durelin's dreams and start over. I kind of looked over Durelin's post 298:

Eomer bothers me. He's channeling phantom-ness.

I don't know why if she dreamed you were the hunter she would say that. Unless she was trying to remain hidden, and didn't want to make it appear like she knew your role? Or she wanted to keep suspicion on you because she knew you were the hunter?

Shasta and Mith are my two top suspects. I don't think both of them are hackers. I agree with Eomer that Mith seems like she's trying to give Shasta another day. I don't see why a wolf would be doing that for another wolf. I think one is the spammer trying to sacrifice herself today to keep the hacker alive one day longer.

Finding out Mith's identity would reveal a lot about sally (who made the deciding vote into Nilp's death) and Nogrod. I say Nogrod because he's been a crafty wolf before who has sacrficed his partners to make himself look innocent. I think I'm getting too far ahead of myself, as I'm basing all this off the two people who I think are guilty.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I edited my post above, and I realised that maybe Mith missed it. Just to let you know.

Shasta and Mith both seem like excellent lynching targets today. I must depart now, though, and possibly won't be back, so I'm voting for Shasta.

++SHASTA

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say Form fits the type of player Durelin would dream about early on. Also, I would imagine each day she would leave us some hint as to who she voted for. She only had 3 posts on Day 1...her first post was completely RPG IC, there are no people mentioned, and so if there is a clue it's a cryptic one. That is something I will not be able to uncover. Her last post she votes for Kit on the grounds of stirring up trouble against Nerwen, and Durelin felt Nerwen was an easy Day 1 wolf lynch. On Night 1 at least she didn't dream of Kit or Nerwen.

Thus is it her 2nd post on the Day where she gives us the hint? She lumps several people together, makes a neutral statement about Nogrod, but with Form there's just something about him she likes.

Haven't read past Page 10, but I'll respond to the only thing (at least regarding me) that I've had a thought on, namely the above quote by Boromir.

As much as I would love Durelin to have dreamt of me, while not disprovable, I do not think this to have been the case, on the basis of her suspicion list yesterday. If she had dreamt and found me guilty, I'd have been at the top of the list--not the bottom. If she had dreamt and found me innocent, I'd not have been on it at all.

Oh, also a thought to Mith regarding my not-fully-shaken-off ICness...

Given that I am a Tolkien Canonist when NOT playing this game, I hardly think I could be accused harshly if I seem to retain the persona. Not that there is any conscious attempt to do so, mind, but it is sort of my modus operandi.

More after I read Page 11.

[Nogrod]

I just went backwards and saw Kitanna's nice analysis on Dury and the way she concluded to Mith's lupinity. So even if wolf-voting-wolfs are not unheard of () I'd say that if and when Mith turns out a wolf I'd be much more at ease with Kitanna. I mean it was clear there were a host of suspicions on Mith already yesterDay and thence Kit's vote might be important in the end.

But then again it would be quite "Mithish" to say to her fellows that: "vote me and get yourselves a good reputation as I seem to be a goner already..."

I remember people saying how their brains were hurting at different earlier stages of the game. I'd say mine is hurting only now...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

#367 Agan thinks Shasta looks innocent, Mith looks suspicious.

Actually, I thought it was likely that either Mith or Nogrod was a wolf, and Mith looked more wolfish. Though today Nogrod has been much more suspicious so I don't really know anymore.

Unless I miscounted, if we don't get a wolf in three days (and there are no ranger saves and Eomer doesn't take a wolf down), we'll lose.

Somehow I'm not so sure anymore if I want to vote for Mith. Kitanna and Nogrod feel worse, and to an extent also Form.

edit: xed with Form, Boro and Nog

[Formendacil]

Mith or Shasta? Shasta or Mith?

That seems to be the question of the day, and as a rare occurrence in my career with this game, I'm wishing we could double-lynch... I'm inclined to suspect both, and I'd be willing to sacrifice the other to catch one.

Murphy's Law: figures it'd be a game that forbid double-lynching that would see me want it.

Of the two, I'm more liable to vote Mith. Although the Shasta has its merits, Mith was on my radar earlier.

Besides these candidates, however, I've still got Nogrod stuck in my mind. I'm sure that if a bandwaggon came along, I'd put my signature to that vote with glee, but standing with just my own suspicions, I keep having second thoughts to the effect of "he's just too much of a philosopher, and you're suspicious as a philosophy student yourself that he's got wheels inside of wheels inside of wheels." Be that as it may, he's still on my radar.

I've mentally put Boromir, Aganzir, and Eönwë in the category of "innocent", and I'm really not sure why. This troubles me... but not enough to suspect them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If it helps, Form, Nogrod is pinging my radar as well. :P I wouldn't be averse to voting him... if I didn't have to save myself.

[Aganzir]

I could vote for Nogrod too.

I'll eat my hat with feathers and all if neither Mith nor Nog is a wolf, and today I'd prefer trying Nog.

[satansaloser2005]

First of all, I'm SO sorry. My aunt called and then....well, I just spaced this off pretty much. I'm not going to subject you all to another long post right before deadline, so here goes a brief thought/how-I-plan-to-vote summation.


Why do our only two candidates seem to be Mith and Shasta? I know, y'all have said it too, so they're really not the only two candidates. I'm not saying that I wouldn't vote for them, only that they're getting too much attention. Hmmmm....we DO still have a cobbler out there. Maybe Mith or Shasta is too busy making delicious crumbles to distract us from catching the real wolves.

My top suspects (Mith aside) are still Form and Noggie. I won't bother you with why right now (again, sorry about that....*mutters*) but it's essentially a gut feeling. Noggie's still feeling wrong to me, and Form, although I've not played with him before now, just seems right to be a wolf. Wish I had more time to explain my hunches; hopefully I'm alive toMorrow to make myself more plain. Maybe I'm (semi)alone in that, but I'd go for lynching either one of them.


Posting, then catching up. X'd since a few minutes ago, so anything's possible.


EDIT: indeed, X'd a lot. Somewhere around Form's post about Mith and Shasta.

[Nogrod]

Oh my... In the beginning of the Day I thought Agan was a bit slippery... I mean it's not too often she has to take back her words and defend her inconsistencies but there she did it. I thought to leave it for later but now I feel I need to say this as she starts to look like Roa in good old times steering the votes at the crucial hours when her evilness so thought fit.

I don't think she was one of the original wolves but she might be the one turned into a baddie. I mean if Shasta isn't the new wolf (there's not only the "being still alive with Eomer" - but he also got hyperactive the very same Day the new wolf had been appointed).

EDIT: X'd with Shasta and Agan... now what did I say? If she manages to get me lynched I'll suggest you lynch her the next Day. That is so calculative...

[Formendacil]

Okay, I've read up to what was current as of my last post, but cross-posting and might have left me a little behind regardless. With half an hour (oh, and more... darned BD time being off... though it gives me a much appreciated 10 minutes, it keeps confusing me) until the deadline, plenty of time to catch that.

Thoughts are nebulous at the moment... Rikae, despite apparently having more time today, still has not said why I was suddenly so clearly evil yesterday, and has not really either confirmed that theory today or dropped it as mistaken. This irritates me, largely because I'm in the one in question, but also because it might speak of a wolf that realises I'm too innocent... or something.

Her complaint, however, that the day is devolving into a Mith/Shasta bandwaggon perks up my ears. Both cases, from my point of view, would seem to suggest that they could be wolves--and if so, then perhaps Rikae is concerned for her two accomplices.

The fact that we haven't killed the Cobbler is also starting to bug me... not because I don't think us capable of thoroughly confusing ourselves, but because I'm starting to think that I see everybody as confusing rather than suspicious, and thus it would seem to indicate that the Cobbler is providing good cover for the wolves right now.