Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Boro, you shame us all with that wonderful post. Excellent stuff.

Edit: Mith. Fair point, and I had spent too much time going over the various possibilities of last night in my head, but I'm not sure I, or the wolves, would want to complicate things. Thinking about the Ranger protection, we enter the horrific realm of bluffs. The Ranger could easily assume that the wolves would avoid me last night and protect someone else (just a pity it wasn't Durelin). Who knows what to think when there are 3 sides to the story? But I notice you are trying to buy Shasta another day.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Edit: Mith. But I notice you are trying to buy Shasta another day.

Am I? Other than being a thorn in your side (which considering you have been a thorn in mine all game, I slightly enjoyed) I haven't paid much attention to him. I will remedy that now and study him earnestly ....

Edit- oh yes I did miss it - you see I did actually have to go to work... so bless you for pointing it out.

[Boromir88]

I bet you all are going to love me today. Boro's got lots of time on his off day and would like to keep this an active day, and not resign ourselves to "Well Shasta or Mith will get it today, here's my vote, bye."

Eomer is the hunter. I see no reason to doubt it, so I won't be talking about him. So here comes everyone else not named Eomer, Mith, or Shasta)

Kitanna:

Votes:
Day 1- Nerwen
Day 2- Agan
Day 3- Eonwe
Day 4- Mithalwen

Her voting doesn't ring any alarms. I did say on Day 2 vote for Agan (after she said Nerwen grew in suspicions from the previous day) was odd. Now that Nerwen is a known wolf, why didn't you proceed to go after Nerwen? Most of the time she's voted early and it looks like a well-concluded decision.

Right now, I trust Kitanna and that is mostly due to her posting. Her analysis/theories of Nerwen's death and Durelin's dream are thorough, and make sense to me because they don't look misleading. I willalso say if we find out she is correct about Mith, I would trust her for probably the rest of the game.

Aganzir:

Votes:
Day 1- The Sixth
Day 2- The Elf-Warrior
Day 3- Nilp

Her three votes have lynched three innocents, that's not a very good track record, but so far in this game who has a good track record? Also, Agan's been very consistant, we know her biggest suspects and usually she follows up on them with a vote. Except on Day 2, but I think that was a realization there wasn't enough support to get Nerwen lynched. Where it feels like Kitanna is voting a little cautiously, Agan is not, and that speaks towards Agan's innocence.

I've felt good about Aganzir on Day 1 and Day 2, but these last two I've become less sure. Particularly what she said about Shasta today in 367:

This post makes me a bit uncomfortable. As if Shasta was pretending to be very innocent by bringing this up himself before anyone else does it.
[...]
Some thoughts about day 3.

I trust Eomer's claim. He and Shasta's little quarrel doesn't look staged, and I find also Shasta probably innocent.

Shasta makes you a bit uncomfortable with a post, but then a few sentences later Shasta's probably innocent? I wonder Agan, if you changed sides over night (whatever night it was)?

Rikae:

Votes:
Day 1- Nerwen
Day 2- Elf-warrior
Day 3- Formendacil

It worries me that Rikae has slipped into the background, but her voting doesn't look all that suspicious. Her reason for voting for EW looked innocent. Her vote for Formendacil was on a "hunch," but that doesn't make it suspicious, as she RL has been taking up her time. That won't give her a free pass for the rest of the game, but for today I think there are far more wolvish looking people than Rikae.

And more will come later...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I bet you all are going to love me today. Boro's got lots of time on his off day and would like to keep this an active day, and not resign ourselves to "Well Shasta or Mith will get it today, here's my vote, bye."

Oh well that is very gracious of you Mr 88 since you were so keen to see me dead yesterday

[Nogrod]

So why are Shasta and Eomer still alive?

I must say the wolves are real clearvoyants if they noticed Dury being the seer as it seems to be hard enough to find even one piece of hint from her posts even afterwards with the knowledge that she was the seer.

Neither do I believe the explanation that the wolves feared the ranger. Basically if the ranger protects the hunter s/he meddles with the hunter's work itself. From respect to other's duties the ranger should not do it.

So either of them is a wolf himself? That would explain them being alive toDay.

Okay. If Eomer isn't the hunter he's a spammer or hacker as at the first look at least I can't come up with a reason why an innocent would pose as the hunter. But in that case our hunter knows it and probably should come forwards with the issue. Killing the hunter is always risky for the wolves and getting the werewolves one down would be a good thing. But surely that is then something the hunter should decide.

But just because there would be a real hunter among us who could always disprove Eomer's claim the idea of posing as a hunter would sound a pretty stupid act to pull in not so dangerouis situation after all. I mean as a last effort in a really tight spot why not try, but it wasn't that bad. And it would be a win-win choice for the village as the real hunter could always say: "I'm the hunter, lynch me and I'll take that liar to death with me". And s/he would then be our hero.

So I must say it looks more likely then that Shasta is the wolf and Eomer speaks truthfully. That would mean the wolves were afraid to kill Eomer just because of the danger it presented to Shasta.

Or then it just never occured to the wolves they might catch two innocents with one kill in the first place.

It's sad but true that we oftentimes come up with great, wild and complicated plans during the Days to explain the actions or the lack of them while most of the wolves just play much more down to earth game not always coming up with those absolutely great masterplans... or noticing the real advantages.

But yes alongside Mith I'd be ready to vote Shasta as well toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Boro - and agree, let's not only say let's lynch either Mith or Shasta. We can do other thingsa as well and we should.