Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Mithalwen]

Oh don't fret Nogrod it is only during the games that I could cheerfully murder you ....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Oh don't fret Nogrod it is only during the games that I could cheerfully murder you ....

Thanks... I mean, as you said, this wasn't actually the first time.

[Mithalwen]

all those times watching the minutes ticking away into seconds and wondering what in Arda it will take for you to make a decision..... and then you claim dithering is a matter of principle rather than a lifestyle choice....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

all those times watching the minutes ticking away into seconds and wondering what in Arda it will take for you to make a decision.....

It only takes others to say what they are going to do.

I could ramble on this a full essay but to cut it short I'd say that it's not always wise to vote for the one you suspect the most as that vote might A) turn out insignificant (not affect anything) or B) be downright disasterous leading to the lynching of someone you think innocent. So one needs to know the situation before one votes. That's why I also call for people to declare their intent at the last moments so that a reasonable discussion could be held at those final moments of decision. Sadly there are always people who just appear out from the blue and vote at those same last minutes. They are the ones that make the voting so hard.

Of course I'm not always able to be online at the deadline and I guess I have voted once or twice something like fifteen minutes before the DL as the situation has been clear...

and then you claim dithering is a matter of principle rather than a lifestyle choice....

[Boromir88]

Why did Boro forget THE Ka?~Rikae

Not sure what you mean? I haven't gotten to Ka yet, nor Form, nor Eonwe, nor several others. I'm getting there.

Nogrod:

Votes:
Day 1- The Sixth
Day 2- Kitanna
Day 3- Mithalwen

Nogrod's votes worry me. On Day 1 he votes for The Sixth after saying in post 120:

I'm afraid that with The Sixth we get an easy wolf-victory - as well as with Nerwen.

He says he wants to avoid ties (or letting the wolves tie it), but that doesn't mean he isn't a clever wolf that didn't tie the vote so he could look innocent.

And Day 2 he casts a meaningless vote for Kitanna, on Day 2 there were a lot of tack on votes against EW, and Nogrod chose not to. Nogrod was in the position where his vote didn't matter. As an interesting note Nogrod suspects (and ends up voting for Kitanna) and today Kitanna theorizes Nogrod is a wolf, based on Durelin's posts. What to make of that?

Like Agan, I feel less sure about Nogrod, a lot will depend upon how this day, and possibly the next turn out (or well mostly when we find out about Mith's identity).

sally

Votes:
Day 1- The Sixth
Day 2- Elf-Warrior
Day 3- Nilp

And like Nogrod, I think Mith's identity would reveal a lot. On Day 1 she admits to joking about Nerwen being a hacker, and ends up voting for The Sixth. Mith votes for sally because of her vote for The Sixth. Then yesterday sally casts the last vote for Nilp and not Mithalwen.

Nerwen is a dead wolf, I'm highly suspicious of Mith, and sally is connected to both of them. sally, why Nilp and not Mith?

THE Ka:

Votes:
Day 1- Rikae
Day 2- Eonwe
Day 3- No vote?

In post 61 and 71 she stresses that her vote will be random. Overly defending yourself? Then her Day 1 vote is for Rikae, and she admits she could come up with better reasoning. Of course who ever has good reasoning, on Day 1, to vote for someone? I just don't like in her two previous posts she says her vote will be random.

And on Day 2 she defends Eonwe's vote (for Mith, after Eomer's on Day 1) but ends up voting for Eonwe in the very same post. I want to hear some more thoughts about Ka, because she sounds to just be talking herself into a circle and confusing herself (see post 190), but I don't like her two votes. Then she doesn't vote on Day 3. Ka's got me utterly confused. On one hand she is voting safe (she avoids the bandwagon on Day 1 and voted for Eonwe early), but would a wolf not vote? Now I'm talking myself into a circle when it comes to THE Ka.

to be continued...

[Rikae]

Well, all that comes to mind at the moment is the following:
I don't like the way Shasta tries to sum up Durelin's dreams for us, nor the way Formendacil basically repeats his words about Kitanna.

However, I also don't see why Aganzir says Shasta was trying to look innocent by being the first to say something that Eomer had already said.

Why did Boro forget THE Ka?

It seems quite possible the wolves didn't suspect Durelin was the seer at all, meaning she hadn't expressed suspicion toward any of them. I'm not saying that's definitely the case, but Durelin basically fit the profile which might have led the wolves to kill Kath - a strong player attracting little attention in this game and leaving little in the way of leads.

I'm going to go through the previous days' posts if I can possibly find the time. For now, though THE Ka finds it suspicious:

Kitanna~eh. I'm still uneasy about her, especially because of the way Shasta and Formendacil dismiss her.
Aganzir~Neg-repping and spamming do go well together...
Shastanis Althreduin~ I will have to look at him more closely. Really, he needs to be properly analysed, though I'm not sure I have time.
Boromir88~ToDay he seems quite sensible and sincere, at least.
Eomer of the Rohirrim~ He seems honest enough, although at this point I don't want to take anything for granted.
Nogrod~I was a little worried about his relative silence, but toDay he seems back to his old self, complicated conspiracy theories and all. I'm inclined to think he's innocent for now.
satansaloser2005~Not getting much of a read on her, as usual.
THE Ka ~ No idea. Flying under the radar a bit.
Eönwë ~ Another that has fallen off the radar. There is far too much of this going on...
Formendacil~I thought him likely to choose Kath as a kill yesterDay, and he seems to be taking a very controlled, rather ... hypnotic? ... tone. I just have a bad feeling about him.
Mithalwen~Not looking especially suspicious to me at the moment, and I find myself wondering where that bandwagon yesterday came from.

EDIT: X'd with the last Mith and Nog

[Mithalwen]

Ah Rikae - it is a bit of a tradition for both Boromir and Durelin to suspect me... but I think I hurt Nogrod's amour propre....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

but I think I hurt Nogrod's amour propre....

Hah. And by the way Mith I actually know this literary allusion... everyone has "son propre"...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hah. And by the way Mith I actually know this literary allusion... everyone has "son propre"...

errr you have lost me again .. me thinks you are over analysing ....
and while we are clearing the air, I don't see why people should justify themselves to you when as far as they know you could be a wolf. We aren't your class!!

I think sometimes you have to take a lead, if you suspect someone vote for them... all this I might vote for X if... seems manipulative and shady.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

We aren't your class!!

I'm not sure which one of us should thank God the louder for that...

Gah, sorry. I just couldn't resist that one...

I think sometimes you have to take a lead, if you suspect someone vote for them... all this I might vote for X if... seems manipulative and shady.

If it just was that simple... but it's a small consolation to have voted proud and right while losing the game. And sure I basically vote for those I suspect, it's only that sometimes one needs to be content with a second or third choice (or even with just "rather him than her" -choice).

But okay. I'll quit rambling and try to do something more productive.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not sure which one of us should thank God the louder for that...

Gah, sorry. I just couldn't resist that one...

That would be me..couldn't resist that either. Trying to teach me philosophy was like teaching a cow to sing (doesn't work and annoys the cow).

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boro88

I agree with Nogrod (and why I'm wary about Shasta's analysis), is why would Durelin say she wants to look at Kitanna if she dreamed of Kitanna and found her innocent?

Have you not thought thought that maybe she's just trying to hide her identity, and not saying the identity of the true wolves for fear of being killed in the night? It might have been a tactic to keep the wolves off her scent (what?!). Maybe she dreamed about her but just didn't want to make it look like she had a radical change of mind, which always looks suspicious, unless there is a good reason behind it.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Have you not thought thought that maybe she's just trying to hide her identity, and not saying the identity of the true wolves for fear of being killed in the night? It might have been a tactic to keep the wolves off her scent (what?!). Maybe she dreamed about her but just didn't want to make it look like she had a radical change of mind, which always looks suspicious, unless there is a good reason behind it.

It's possible, but the seer should remember that she can be killed also for other reasons than being suspected the seer, and therefore it should be more important that she left sufficient hints for the villagers to find after her passing.

Anyway, Eönwë, unless I'm completely mistaken this (edit: the previous, not the one I'm quoting next) was your first post today.

My internet is dying, so I had better vote quickly.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

I will explain when I can...

Can you now?

Not that I particularly suspect you, I just want to hear your reasoning since you promised to explain it.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Formendacil~I thought him likely to choose Kath as a kill yesterDay, and he seems to be taking a very controlled, rather ... hypnotic? ... tone. I just have a bad feeling about him.

Kath was dead yesterday (though the intro had her in Glorfindel-mode dwelling on both sides at the same time and no doubt against the seen and the unseen she has great power!)? Oh you mean that yesterday you suspected that Formendacil would have chosen Kath the previous night?

Anyway he is certainly guarded and his original IC style hasn't totally worn off.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boro

Shasta makes you a bit uncomfortable with a post, but then a few sentences later Shasta's probably innocent? I wonder Agan, if you changed sides over night (whatever night it was)?

I wrote my day 3 stuff before I commented on that point of Shasta's, which I hadn't noticed when I first read through day 4, and because I wanted to keep my post coherent I added it to where the rest of my day 4 related things were. Though it would have made more sense if I had written the day 3 things before the day 4 ones.
I think Shasta looked innocent yesterday, but today I found that post of his strange.

And no, I didn't change sides.

Originally Posted by Rikae

However, I also don't see why Aganzir says Shasta was trying to look innocent by being the first to say something that Eomer had already said.

Whoops, it was so obvious that Eomer had already said it that I forgot it.
Anyway, my main point was the following: Shasta doesn't try to downplay the fact that Eomer wasn't attacked, but brings it up himself, seemingly wondering about it. Would a wolf do it? It might be easier for him to try to hush it up, and therefore Shasta might be a wolf. Garr I cannot explain it better. It looks silly but I hope you understand.

I never bothered to take a proper look at Shasta, and although I'm feeling lazy right now, I think I could at least read through his posts. Though with Nerwen and Nilp dead I don't have any clear ideas anymore.