Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Macalaure]

Just skimmed the Day to see if anything pops out.

Originally Posted by BG

I've been keeping a spreadsheet with all my thoughts about ya'll in it. The first person that I ever suspected was Form, right from his first post. I just didn't say anything. Then at the last minute (while on a dying cell phone) I realized that was a bad idea. Oh well.
I probably shouldn't even say thing because one of my last games (years and years ago) I go lynched solely on my explanation of why I voted as I did.

If you don't say it, it didn't happen. Anyway though, I'm buying this explanation. I actually find it a little eyebrow-raising that Brinn and Legate are so over this.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I don't follow this at all. When is it ever NOT a good idea for wolves to kill someone they think the Seer? ESPECIALLY when she has only dreamed an innocent so far? But I get why you would want to dissuade us from the idea that Lottie was killed as a possible Seer...

It definitely depends on how sure you are, though. Say you're a wolf and someone suspects you Day1 and then you night-kill them for suspecting them to be the seer, but you happen to be wrong. Now you repeat that during the next night and the next and... there's no way the village lets you live through all of that. With all seer-hunting, wolves also have to make sure the kills don't leave an obvious trail. A vague seer suspicion might not always be worth it.

Originally Posted by Pitch

This is actually worse than Nog & Nilp about Mac. Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent. *ping*

I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?

No spreadsheet-shaming!

This is slightly pinging my radar because it seems like Mac is downplaying the possibility to gain some insight from the voting pattern here, especially if one of Nilp or Form actually happen to be Wolves.

That's not exactly what I meant. There's two ways to interpret the voting, I think:

- One or both of Nilp and Form is a wolf and the wolves needed Hui to die instead. Rikae tieing him with Form, and then of course Nog and Kath's votes are suspicious in this case.

- Or neither is a wolf, in which case the wolves could've done anything they wanted, with throwaway-votes being slightly suspicious (Brinn, Pitch, and yes, me).

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better.

[Pitchwife]

BG, for crying out loud, we don't tell the whole village who we think the Gifted are!
(I really don't know what to make of BG at this point. I don't necessarily disagree with her conclusions (except as concerns myself, obviously), but the way she gets there is kind of weird and awkward.)
As for my Kath vote, although I said to Hui I couldn't see a wolf plot against him 'tween Kath and Lottie, I still thought (and think) Kath by herself could be a wolf for reasons I've explained more than once now.

Originally Posted by Mac

I agree that it might be worse - it could be a cobbler testing the water in a "friend or foe?" kind of way. On the other hand, innocents do that, too - "hm, xx is acting strange, but are they a wolf or gifted?". It shouldn't be said out loud, but it can happen. So I would say Nog > Nilp > Form in terms of suspiciousness.

Of course we all do it, but as you say, it shouldn't be said out loud. Also it could be used to cover for a fellow wolf, making people think they might be gifted instead of wolvish.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, should I tell them about your non-WW spreadsheets?

No details about your married life, please.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

In the latter case, yes, learning anything from the voting is tough. In the former case, all I'm saying is that smart wolves shouldn't have panicked over it. This would make Kath in particular look better.

Not necessarily. Kath's vote didn't look at all panicky to me - she got the ball rolling on the entire Huin thing very early on in the Day, then came back after it had become a wagon and voted for him. If anything, it looks almost too choreographed.

I haven't had time to go through everyone as I hoped, but just quickly -

I'm currently most uneasy about Nog and Kath, though worry they are both almost too textbook-wolves to actually be wolves. Still wary of Pitchwife, especially given how he's managed to slip under my radar toDay. Also somewhat wary of Rikae and Brinn, and flip-flopping on Legate and Mac.

Lommy and Sally are securely under my radar, and while Sally is understandable, Lommy is a bit alarming as she's had a few moderately long posts.

I felt good about Shasta yesterDay, but I'd really like to have something from him toDay too. Nilp seems more innocent toDay, or maybe it's just that he stopped trying to lynch himself. I'm also leaning innocent on BG and to some extent Form (although he does give off potential Cobbler vibes).

[Boromir88]

Like the previous day, this day started uneventful as the village diplomatically discussed spreadsheets, notes and information sharing systems. Discussion on gifteds and cobblers swirled, but as the day grew older, the townspeople realized there were still 4 werewolves among them!

Tensions and suspense filled as they all stared at each other for several minutes. Even the dead were scratching their heads about what they were supposed to do with the whole town engaged in a staring contest. But suddenly they were kicked into action. Accusations with a little more teeth to them, and votes began flying around in the final moments.

"I predict chaos!" said Lommy

"Great we ended in a tie with Formendacil and Nogrod! How are we to decide?"

The village appeared to be at an impasse for the longest time because they couldn't lynch both of them. There was only one gallow!

Then suddenly one of them fainted for a moment. It was Brinniel! In a trance she uttered the words ++Nogrod. When she came-to she screamed Nogrod. Vote Nogrod. You fool! Make it Nogrod!

And that is how the village finally reached their decision. Nogrod went to the gallows today. Thus ended the 2nd day where an ordinary villager was lynched

The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Day 2 lynch

The Living

A Little Green
Blind Guardian
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

----

It is Night 3. Silence in the village.

Werewolves discuss send me kill.

Seer dream.

Ranger protect.

BH set your trap.

[Boromir88]

It was a cold and brutal night. The townspeople were hoping to get through it with any sign of hope and good news. The first 2 days and nights did not go well at all for them.

In a secret corner of the town, the werewolves were on the verge of throwing a party. There was little they could complain about as everything seemed to be progressing as planned. But the pack also knew that one of their deaths, or a ranger save, or the seer outing them could turn the tide against them in an instant. Their victim was chosen and this night they were after a rare delicacy.

As dawn arrived and everyone in the village gathered in the center again, this time Blind Guardian was missing. When they plucked up the courage to visit her house they found her on her bed, motionless. Her eyes were gouged out and apparently eaten, or missing. Truly, she was blind now! Alas, this was depressing news to the townspeople, but there was still hope. For another ordinary villager, she was, which meant all the village's powerful protectors were still alive!

A voice from beyond has a laugh... "Woah this is eerily following the same path as a village from Lake-town 9 years ago. As assured then, it is assured now, there are werewolves, and cobbler, and seer, and ranger and beast hunter." *Voice dissipates into thin air.

(The content in the narrations contains no clues to any roles or what anyone's strategy is. They're for pure and innocent fun)


The Dead

Boro (Town Recorder) - Night 1
Huinesoron (Villager) - Day 1
Loslote (Villager) - killed by pack Night 2
Nogrod (Villager) - Day 2 lynch
Blind Guardian (Villager) - Killed by pack Night 3

The Living

A Little Green
Brinniel
Formendacil
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Macalaure
Nilpaurion Felagund
Pitchwife
Rikae
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Thinlomien

*With 4 villagers, 3 will have to vote for the same person to have a Medium today.*

----

Since it came up in the Dead thread as a discussion topic. It did not happen in yesterday's lynch, but the Medium's vote could lead to a tie and the question was raised how would this effect who is lynched? Who would have reached the most votes first, if the Medium tied the vote?

I've decided to go with since the dead players choose 1 player's vote to count as 2. Whoever is chosen as Medium, and whenever they vote it will automatically count as 2. So that would make the tally from yesterday:

Greenie > Kath
BG > Form
Form > Kath (2)
Mac > Nilp
Nilp > Mac
Lommy > Form (2)
Kath > Nilp (2)
Rikae > Nogrod
Legate > Nogrod (2)
Nogrod > Form (3)
Pitch > Nog (3)
Sally > Kath (3)
Brinn > Nogrod (5) - Medium +1
Shasta > Form (4)

[Rikae]

I'm about to go have dinner, but I just wanted to say:

Hui and Loslote,

THAT WAS EPIC


Edit: crossed with Mac

[Formendacil]

Huh... Blind Guardian is a surprise.

Unless the Wolves though her "discuss the Gifteds" actions yesterDay were a sign of Giftedness, the only thing I see them gaining is a lack of a trail.

Which isn't to be discounted! Nor is that without value; indeed, it has great value. But as the only villager BG seems to have presented any real animosity toward, I feel a little set up. Mind you, as a second place finisher both Days so far, I'm an easy target.

More spreadsheets once I get back to my computer, because--spoiler alert!--I did not, as it happens, abandon it after Day 1. (We're in a summer doldrum/pandemic doldrum at work, it seems.)