Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute.

I agree. Let's start the ball rolling. (Also getting this out there before I fall back to sleep again. )

++EÖNWË

My suspicion of him based on his voting pattern stands.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

Do you then disagree that Legate was killed for looking like a seer? If not, who do you think they thought he dreamed of?

The two first votes are interesting. Lhuna goes for yet another not-so-popular pick, but given how she acknowledges this in her reasoning, I can't really disagree. I mean we must have at least a few wolves who are quiet and steering clear of controversy, unless the remaining pack is Brinn-Zil-Boro-Lottie, which I quite refuse to believe.

Eönwë goes for Boro, which is consistent with his earlier suspicions. But Eönwë, if you have time to clarify at any point - why Boro and not me or Zil? As far as I can see you didn't specify before which one of us your top suspects is the most suspicious to you and why.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Do you then disagree that Legate was killed for looking like a seer? If not, who do you think they thought he dreamed of?

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Well I would assume the seer to leave some clue about his known innocents, should he die without getting to reveal. I somewhat assumed everyone would at least consider this, but I see now that everyone doesn't. Unless you're a wolf who is trying to discredit innocent Rune because you might need him as a lynch option later?

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well I would assume the seer to leave some clue about his known innocents, should he die without getting to reveal. I somewhat assumed everyone would at least consider this, but I see now that everyone doesn't. Unless you're a wolf who is trying to discredit innocent Rune because you might need him as a lynch option later?

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.

[A Little Green]

For Cutie purposes (even if a bit last minute) -

+- Inzil

Wouldn't be opposed to Boro, Brinn or Lhuna either.

[Nogrod]

The QT has voted.

They give their vote to ++ Brinni..

Nope.

Not this time.



They give their vote to

++ Lhunardawen

[A Little Green]

I had a quick (and frustratingly inconclusive) look at Brinn yesterDay and toDay. I have to say I sort of get why she’s been scrutinised a lot less the last two days: her behaviour has been a lot less controversial.

Day 3:

Originally Posted by Brinn

I was really hoping that Kit was an ordo acting like the ranger, but alas.
The Hui bandwagon really did come from nowhere - I'm just glad I trusted my gut. I don't think the wolves saw that bandwagon coming, however, I do think there's a fair chance that a wolf is hiding among the Hui voters, so I will not disregard them.

This is Brinn reacting to Day 2 and Night 3. The tone doesn’t feel genuine to me, but that isn’t really an argument.
- Thinks there is at least one wolf in group that didn’t vote either Huin or Mac D2.
- Analyses Ka, doesn’t come to a conclusion either way; analyses Rune, concludes she is wary of him but not as suspicious as of some others; analyses Lhuna and finds her suspicious.
- Thinks Lalaith or Eonwe are most likely wolf-on-wolfers among Huin voters.
- List: most concerned about Inzil, Sally, Lhuna; somewhat worried about Boro, Rune, Lalaith, Eonwe; not sure about Kath, Ka, Shasta, Greenie, Lottie; feeling okay about Pitch, Lommy, Legate, Mac.
- Suspects Sally; after reveal, skeptical about its authenticity. Votes Sally because thinks real Hunter-Sally would have revealed her intended pick.

Day 4
- Reaction to previous Day again rubs me the wrong way, but again, this is a gut feeling thing more than anything else:

Originally Posted by Brinn

My gosh yesterDay was a mess. I am baffled why Sally last-minute switched to Mac - compared to everyone else, he appeared to be on the more innocent side. But I guess that at least takes the question of whether two wolves were on the table Day 2.

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

I'm actually liking what Boro has to say toDay. Strange, I know. I'm still wary of him due to the timing of his vote on Mac, but maybe less so.

- List: leans innocent on Lottie, Lommy, Pitchwife, Shasta and Kath, going back and forth on myself and Boro, no read on Rune or Ka, suspects Lhuna and Inzil, and thinks there’s a fair chance either Eonwe or Lalaith is a wolf but probably not both. Later states Inzil as her fake vote preference.
- Discusses Legate kill – either safe and boring or “seer” who dreamed Rune and Huin.

And that’s it up to time of writing. Aside from a vague bad feeling about her opening posts both days, there’s nothing here that screams “wolf” to me – if not exactly screaming “innocent” either. Not massively useful, but at least I know I haven’t overlooked anything very glaring either way.

[Eönwë]

Wow, it looks like yesterDay got exciting after I left! It's pretty crazy how we've had two last-minute bandwaggons ending in an Infector being quarantined.

Will be back with more once I've had a chance to properly catch up on what's happened since I last posted.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.

For the record, he didn't single him out. I singled him out in my analysis. Because everyone else Legate called innocent he at least had some doubts about, or made a point in passing about how something they said could be suspicious. Rune is the only one he was unanimous about, but it was pretty vague.

edit: xed with everyone after Greenie INCLUDING THE TROLLING MOD

[Thinlómien]

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Inziladun]

Interesting from the QT, however, Lhuna is not my first choice.

I'm at work today, and some may recall that my line entails a level of unpredictability.
That said, I can't see my main suspect changing.

++Lommy

I'll try to get back, but no guarantee.

[Pitchwife]

+-Eönwë


For reasons explained yesterDay, plus I'd have expected an innocent to react a bit stronger to this continued suspicion.


An unordered list:



Zil and/or Lommy - on the fence

Boro - haven't studied him enough to form a qualified opinion.
Brinn and/or Greenie - wary for involvement in sallywagon, but apart from the bit from Greenie I quoted above nothing in yesterDay's posts really stood out as fishy
Lottie - leaning innocent
Rune - no wolfy vibes so far
Kath - see Rune
Lhuna - darned if I know; she's a slippery fish in the sense that I can't quite get a cognitive grip on her
Lalaith - a bit like Lhuna but less so (does this make any sense?)
THE Ka - another one; like somebody said, she seems to exist in a bubble of her own at one remove from what else is happening
Shasta - not concerned so far, we'll see what happens when he gets more involved

[Eönwë]

Posts from wolves' last days that I think are likely to be important/revealing:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

It feels hypocritical to analyse these votes when I didn’t put one in.

DAY 3 VOTES (with Day 2, Day 1)

THE Ka -> Sally (Lottie 2, Brinniel 3)
QT -> Brinn (Brinn)
Eönwë -> Sally 2 (Hui 7, Urwen)
Kath -> Inzil (Inzil, G55 2)
Greenie -> Sally 3 (Mac 2, Mac)
Lommy -> Sally 4 (Mac, G55 5)
——HunterSally reveal——
Inzil -> Brinn 2 (Mac 5, G55 3)
Lottie -> Sally 5 (Hui 4, G55 4)
Lalaith -> Sally 6 (Hui 5, no vote)
Legate -> Sally 7 (Hui, Brinn 5)
Shasta -> Sally 8 (Mac 7, Pitch 2)
Brinn -> Sally 9 (Hui 6, G55 7)
Rune -> Inzil 2 (Lottie, Brinn 4)
Boro -> Sally 10 (Mac 6, Pitch)
Pitch -> Eonwe (Hui 3, Brinn 2)
No vote: Lhuna (Lommy, Lhuna)


Based on the voting patterns ALONE, these stand out to me at the moment:

Likely Innocent
Lottie
Cast a decisive Hui vote. Her reactions to being a possible Huntee looked genuinely innocent to me.

Pitch
Cast a decisive Hui vote. He believed sally’s reveal, so his vote for Eonwe shows integrity.


Bad
Eonwe
I still think his vote for Urwen was a throwaway.
I still believe his vote for Hui could be wolf-on-wolf.
He prefaced his vote for sally with
I do not understand this at all.

Lommy
I know she had been consistent about suspecting sally yesterDay, but she could be a wolf who knows that sally is likely to target an innocent based on her suspicions, so she boldly challenged her claim and pushed for her lynching. Two birds, one stone.

Shasta
I’m still not comfortable about that throwaway Mac vote. Also voting for Sally after this then afterwards saying this I don’t follow.

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.


Should look more closely
Brinn
Mighty strange how all her votes came in towards the end of a successful bandwagon, even if we don’t count the Day 1 vote to save herself.

Rune
Last mention of Zil on Day 2, he was in his neutral zone, and his suspects were Brinn, Lottie, and Eonwe. YesterDay, he said his quick read-through had not yielded any new suspicions. Afterwards he asked to confirm if his understanding of why Zil and sally were being suspected is accurate, which Legate did. Next thing we see, he could vote for Zil as well as his three suspects without feeling too bad about it. So while his not voting for sally is consistent with his stand on her reveal, his choice of vote seems oddly out of the blue.

Greenie
Primarily because she has voted for two known innocents so far

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...

hS

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

I would be very surprised if at last one of these isn't an Infector.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Well, the Seer is the prime target always. It's only when they really don't see compelling signs that they'll just go for one unlikely to be lynched.

I might still buy this explanation if it had been Night 2 or something. At this stage, though, I really can't see how they could afford not to try for the Seer. Certainly if their prospective Seer is also someone who is generally considered innocent and therefore unlikely lynchee, all the better for them, but I doubt they'd pick anyone only because of that.

Originally Posted by Boro

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday.

This last bit especially I find worth noting. The Lhunawagon came about pretty quickly and only after the QT vote; though a few of us had said they found her somewhat suspicious, it looked like most people were pretty surprised by the QT picking her. So yes, I'd expect to see some wolf-on-wolf among the Lhuna voters, but not an orchestrated plot to sacrifice her.

[Boromir88]

So much I'd like to do today, but I'm running out of time. So...let's see if I'm better at prioritizing than mental lists.

Disclaimer: Not discounting the possibility of wolf-on-wolf, but there's still 3. The normal amount for a village. Don't get cocky, yet.

I'm pleasantly surprised that our lynches haven't caused a complete melt down. There was a hiccup with sally that really gave us nothing. Stay the course and focus on the non-Lhuna voters:

Eonwe >>> Boro

Point in favor was his vote for Huey to tie the knot. He's been consistently suspicious of me, but I'll have others take a look at his vote if they so desire. This came before the QT vote was known, so he might have changed if not having to vote early.

Inzil >>> Lommy

Remarks that was an interesting choice from the QT, but not his top choice. Votes Lommy to make it a 4 way tie with me, Eonwe, Lhuna and Lommy. Definitely a suspicious early vote. I wasn't opposed to putting more people into the pot yesterday, but in addition to the poor choice, quickly dismissive of the QT.

Lottie >>> Boro

I get this vote, but will have others take a look at it if they so desire. Not a major fan of her methods, but can't deny they work well for her and just because someone takes the road less travelled doesn't mean we don't eventually reach the same destination.

Greenie >>> Inzil

I believe this made the count: Boro - 2, Lhuna - 1, Lommy - 1, Inzil - 1, Eonwe - 1. Additional spreading of the pot, which was pinged by Pitch. But if a wolf, trying to save Lhuna I would think she would have begun to consolidate the vote. Could have put me further in the lead, for example.

After Greenie's vote it starts to consolidate between Eonwe and Lhuna.

Pitch >>> Eonwe

He notes my comment about not wanting to limit ourself to just 2 choices today makes him not want to vote for me. Votes Eonwe, despite not liking to do so because he was away. Seems to disregard the QT vote. Suspicious. This made a 3 way tie between me, Lhuna, and Eonwe

Rune >>> Eonwe

At this point Lhuna was at 4, Eonwe 3. However, Rune and Lommy (for Lhuna) voted at the same time. So when making his vote the count was Lhuna 3/ Eonwe 2. Suspicious, looks like an attempt to save Lhuna.

Kath and Shasta then voted for Lhuna to put it out of reach I believe.

I tacked on a vote for Eonwe, just because he was an unknown and my preferred choice had already had her fate sealed.

So, for the QT my proposted vote...

+-Rune

[Boromir88]

It'll be some time before I can make it back but I intend to take more detailed look at THE Ka, Kath, and Greenie today.

[Thinlómien]

The QT can whack my head for saying "we should coordinate something with the qt" repeatedly, yet taking no initiative on that. In my defense, I really do hate theoretical speculation and prefer to use my time and energy analysing Night kills and/or votes. Or plain poking at people.

But okay, I think the least we can do is to give the qt pointers about how we might want to lynch toDay, like Boro just did. Since it looks pretty quiet here, I have spent some time on the Night kill and making a list (including a quick look at yesterDay's votes while making that), I might retreat for a little while. On Monday I spent most of my waking hours playing werewolf (did I mention I'm temporarily unemployed until June 2nd? ), and to be honest, I don't have the stamina to repeat that today. So, I'll be off for a few hours at least, and I'll make a mock vote if it helps the qt:

+-Eönwë

but I could as well go for +-THE Ka or +-Inziladun.

[A Little Green]

Lommy makes a good point about giving the QT some warning about what we're up to. Right now I'm still most inclined to go

+- Inzil,

with THE Ka a strong runner-up. I wouldn't actively mind Eonwe, Shasta, Brinn or Kath either.


--


RL sidenote: further joys of lockdown life - my back is worse than it has been for years, so my capacity to sit in front of a computer is somewhat compromised today. I'll do my best to pop in, but don't expect lengthy posts

[Kath]

So! 2 wolves down! And the QT made an excellent showing of themselves, too. YesterDay, quite a few people put down their planned vote options long before the QT vote had to be made. Is that something we want to do again toDay on the assumption that it did help?

Just looking at Lhuna's posts form yesterDay again in light of the lynch ... and in not such a rush as yesterDay!

Post 862 - she had made a list:
Likely innocent:
Lottie - Hui vote, trying to stop sally taking her as a Hunter pick
Pitch - Hui vote, believing sally so voting Eonwe to save her

Bad:
Eonwe - voting record
Lommy - attitude towards sally
Shasta - Mac vote, flipflopping on sally
Boro - holding his vote, flipflopping on sally

Should look more closely:
Brinn - votes come at end of successful bandwagons
Rune - voting Inzil out of the blue
Greenie - voted for two known innocents

She stated that she was looking at people who she noted from the voting patterns, and didn't mention the following: Kath, Inzil, Lalaith, THE Ka

I think from this post, one thing that stands out to me is that her reasoning behind finding Shasta 'Bad' and Boro 'Bad' is pretty similar. I'm wondering if one of them is a wolf, and she's matching an innocent to them with the same reasoning to confuse the issue. Given the Day 1 vote for herself and then the picking at Kit which got a lot of attention, Lhuna doesn't seem to have played as a wolf afraid of a bit of controversy. Naming a fellow wolf in her 'Bad' list doesn't seem out of character.

Originally Posted by Boro

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Early suspicion toward Lhuna here.

Inzil then responds to Lhuna's post, wondering why he didn't make the list. Follows on from Lhuna saying he is also not happy about Shasta and Boro.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Lhuna voted once as a throwaway because she wouldn't be there for the Deadline, once very early for Lommy, and once missed the deadline. She can't be here at the deadline, so she has never posted when it's gotten messy. She can't control that, it isn't suspicious or innocent, it just is.

Defending Lhuna against Boro's comments on her voting record.

Originally Posted by Boro

Interesting. I wonder...but that will have to wait.

My comments to sally were tongue-in-cheek. After she pulled that reveal and left us hanging, until right before the DL I seriously doubted she was the hunter. I was wrong.

Replies to Lhuna's suspicion of him. What was the 'I wonder' bit about, Boro?

Originally Posted by Brinn

Lhuna: Wasn't really around yesterDay. Still find her suspicious for reasons stated yesterDay.

As part of a list post. The reasons were:

Originally Posted by Brinn

Okay, I had some concerns about Lhuna's posts from yesterDay, and after really reviewing them, I do find her suspicious. For her involvement in the ranger discussion, the way she encouraged suspicion against me in a subtle way, her vote yesterDay, and her bringing up Hui's slip.

This is all pretty solid from Brinn. It largely matches what I'd felt, minus the bit about herself.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I'm still feeling mostly good about Pitch, Shasta, Lhuna, Lottie, and Brinn, but a few of them have said things that made me raise my eyebrows (and there is the possible Pitch-Hui link mentioned in my previous post) and I think it might be time for me to make sure I'm not giving people free passes based on earlier innocent-looking actions.

This is very non-committal for quite a large chunk of the village and Lhuna is bang in the middle of it.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Hm. I agree with 1, and with that Lhuna deserves a closer look and Inzil is a very possible wolf, but the rest of this I either disagree with or find fishy or both. Regarding the QT – yes, we can trust that the QT vote is benign; but no, we can’t trust that it’s any more likely to be correct than that of any other innocent, non-Seer person. Following the QT’s lead would give a very easy alibi for a wolf to vote for an innocent without raising too many eyebrows, so no, even with an innocent-majority QT I don’t really trust anyone who places too much weight on what the QT decide.

In response to Boro's comments. Boro had suggested a pack of Lhuna, Lottie, Inzil + one more. Greenie seems to discount Lottie from this list and I agree based on the reasons I gave previously. Boro and Greenie - what linked Lhuna and Inzil for you, given you seemed to agree on that point?

Originally Posted by Boro

For the QT. I would vote +-Lhuna

Ok, it stinks when your time zone doesn't allow you to be around when all the insanity unfolds. Still she made 2 safe votes. Not safe because of the TIME, but safe because of the people she suspects.

She mentions Huey's slip, but doesn't follow up on it.

1st was a self-vote.

2nd was a flimsy vote for Lommy that she still hasn't explained.

Lhuna had been a topic of discussion throughout the Day but Boro seems to be leading the charge here. I don't think anyone else had Lhuna down as their absolute top suspect.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Lhuna – On the fence about her too. Her voting record doesn’t tell us much; admittedly yesterDay’s no vote was due to RL and understandable, but Day 1 she voted for herself which gives us literally nothing, and Day 2 she voted for Lommy for reasons that still aren’t entirely clear to me. There was also the bit where she pointed out Huinwolf’s slip when no one else did but then didn’t follow up on it, which I still think could be a possible indication of guilt (a wolf would be more likely to notice a wolf slip because she’d know that’s what it was).

Interesting that Boro and Greenie have pretty much the same reasoning here. Lhuna wasn't top suspect for Greenie, though, with Inzil, Brinn and Boro more suspicious to her.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Lhuna - she is playing very safe and avoiding connections to most players. I don't like it.

Lommy has Lhuna in the suspiciousish category with Inzil, Brinn and Eonwe.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Lhuna - She's been very quiet, which I can't exactly blame her for, but I haven't seen any proof that I can trust her, either.

Has in the 'feeling dubious' list, but has Inzil, Lommy and Boro in a higher category.

Originally Posted by Lal

I would also put Shasta on my 'watch' list. For the reasons, (ironically enough) that Lommy states in her recent analysis.

I still feel I haven't got any kind of handle on Lhuna, Ka and, to some extent, Kath.
Which probably means they are all brilliant wolves.

On the assumption Lal was killed because the wolves thought she was the Seer (and I still can't see what else the wolves would be going for) this is an interesting post. She was right about Lhuna being a wolf, so it could be that she has actually also pegged another wolf or even wolves and so they killed her assuming she was the Seer so she couldn't dream of any more of them. Alternatively, the others mentioned are innocent, so had Lal turned out to be the Seer then the village may have gone after them assuming she had dreamed them and found them guilty too.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

++EÖNWË

My suspicion of him based on his voting pattern stands.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

Lhuna putting Boro and Lommy as top suspects together I think makes it very unlikely they would both be wolves, if either is.

Eonwe then has Lhuna as 'unsure, neutral' in his list post, and had voted for one of his top suspects, Boro.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The two first votes are interesting. Lhuna goes for yet another not-so-popular pick, but given how she acknowledges this in her reasoning, I can't really disagree. I mean we must have at least a few wolves who are quiet and steering clear of controversy, unless the remaining pack is Brinn-Zil-Boro-Lottie, which I quite refuse to believe.

Lhuna's vote doesn't seem to be pinging suspicion here for Lommy.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Lhuna brought Rune up a few times, particularly in response to Lommy's posts. If she'd been in real danger at this point, this might look more like pushing a particular name to keep it looking innocent the next Day. As this was before the QT and the votes, I think it speaks to Rune likely being innocent.

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I'm going to have to ask the same Lhuna. Choosing him appears to be they were having a hunch on his role due to his relative safety and insights? If so, why not Pitch who was in tandem with him at points during the Huin vote. Or do you think he was chosen out of pressure and because of starting the Huin vote they thought he had some additional role insight?

This was about why the wolves chose Legate. Lhuna's assertions that Legate did not look Seerish suggests that this was indeed why he was killed.

Greenie mentions she wouldn't be opposed to lynching Lhuna - has Inzil as her top and Boro and Brinn on the list too.

Then the QT votes Lhuna.

Originally Posted by Lommy

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.

This initial reaction suggests Lommy wasn't eager to follow the vote choice here.

Inzil states Lhuna is not his first choice and votes Lommy. Looking back, it doesn't seem that Inzil has mentioned or interacted with Lhuna since the posting around the Kit discussion, so voting for her here would have really stuck out.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Lhuna - darned if I know; she's a slippery fish in the sense that I can't quite get a cognitive grip on her

Pre-voted Eonwe and didn't seem to have any major suspicion of Lhuna here.

Greenie thinks Hui may have slipped and therefore the QT actually know something about Lhuna. Tempted to go for her, and she did mention she'd be happy to lynch Lhuna earlier.

Lommy would prefer Inzil but was happy to go with Lhuna. Having said a little earlier that she wasn't sure about following the QT vote, I'm interested in what changed her mind.

Lottie voted Boro and didn't mention Lhuna at all. What did you think of the QT vote, Lottie?

Originally Posted by Boro

I'll most probably be following the QT's vote. Seems to me like they've got a good head on their shoulders now.

Boro seemed very happy with the situation.

Rune listed Inzil, Eonwe and Brinn. Said he'd take a look at Lhuna.

Greenie votes Inzil for being the most suspicious and mentioned suspicion of Lhuna and Boro. Having previously said you'd be tempted to follow the QT, Greenie, why the decision to stick to Inzil in the end?

Lal's push for the village listening to the QT I think again would have made the wolves suspect she might be the Seer. There goes the QT literally naming a wolf an no one seems to listen, so she brings it to the forefront.

Lommy said that without an analysis of Lhuna she only had flimsy reasons to vote and wasn't happy with that.

Originally Posted by Rune

I think it is interesting that Lhuna , a relatively non-vocal player (at least not great quantities of posts), choses to introduce her theory that there we are dealing with submarine-wolves in a relatively subdued manner. Also she only does so after she has cast a vote fore Eonwe.

I didn't really see Lhuna as non-vocal because of her involvement with the Kit discussion, but I can see the not great quantities of posts point.

Brinn says she could vote for Lhuna but would rather vote Inzil.

Shasta says he'd probably vote Lommy.

THE Ka looked into Lhuna and Lommy debating whether the wolves killed Legate because they thought he was the Seer, and picking out Rune as an innocent/suspect. She concludes Lhuna comes out of that the more suspicious and votes for her. This is the first vote for Lhuna since the QT vote.

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
THE Ka -> Lhuna 2

This ties Lhuna with Boro.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'm pretty okay with this tally. The QT vote for Lhuna is interesting - unsure if I want to follow up on it today, but I don't think she and I are ever going to agree about how long I held my vote the day we QT'd Huin, and I can't decide if I think it's wolvish or not.

I currently think there's a Lommy/Boro connection - specifically I think there's a case for them being wolves together. It's at gut-and-pings level right now; if I were to research anything it would probably be that.

Zil and Eonwe both have minor dings against them but also both have places where I agreed with what they had to say, so...

Then in the immediate next post he agrees with Greenie's vote for Inzil and says it's followed his exact train of thought, so I'm surprised he doesn't have Inzil as a clearer suspect in his own post. And then a post later, looks at Eonwe's list and likes/dislikes parts of it, but again doesn't mention Inzil despite what he just said about Greenie's post.

Pitch votes Eonwe.
Lal votes Lhuna.
Lommy votes Lhuna.

Rune votes Eonwe. This puts Eonwe at 3 while Lhuna is at 4.

I vote Lhuna.
Shasta votes Lhuna.
Boro votes Eonwe.
Brinn votes Lhuna.

So it was Shasta's vote that decided it. Had he voted Eonwe instead, and then Boro still voted Eonwe, Brinn would have had the deciding vote.

I'm sorry, this was supposed to be a look at just Lhuna's posts, but turned into more of a train of thought through the Day. It also took a while! The last post I saw before starting was 1090.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If I were to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil

+-Inziladun

I know I am sounding like a broken record, but my secondary choices would be Brinn and Eönwë.

The people I suspect the least at the moment is Pitch, Greenie and Shasta. My good feeling of Shasta I must admit are not based on anything particular save not getting bad vibes and not seeing anything obviously incriminating.

[Thinlómien]

Hello? Eeriely quiet here! I mean, I guess it could be a welcome change in this game, but I'm a bit uneasy. We have the most data so far, we could coordinate something with the qt, but nothing is happening.

I'll make a list to sort my thoughts a little:


Leaning innocent

Lottie and Pitch - still think them innocent for previously stated reasons, and just when I started having second thoughts about them, Greenie's analysis goes and makes them look better. Eh, still not really suspecting them.

Greenie - I was wary of her for a long time, but she has come off as more genuine for the last couple of Days. Also I like her list and I think it would have been a crazy endeavour from a wolf. (It's already crazy from an innocent, but if you add to gathering the facts the effort of presenting them in a light that would hopefully benefit her fellows and make a few innocents look shady? Craazy. I say she deserves at least one Day's pass )

Rune - as I said, Legate's death and Lhuna's denial of my conclusions about it make him look very innocent.


Leaning wherever they want apparently

Brinn and Boro - this game has weirdly warped around both, especially Brinn, still neither of them has gotten even close to getting lynched despite having been under fairly heavy suspicion. I am hesitant to suspect them because they are too "obvious" choices and I feel a bit like both have been "used" by other players in this game, but I don't really have anything to back that up. Both of them also voted late enough yesterDay not to make a difference, and have made several other potentially wolfy votes in the past (for example on Day2).

Kath - nothing makes me suspect her in particular, but I think she usually plays a little more in her own bubble when a wolf, and she's been increasingly doing that. Her Lhuna vote yesterDay came when she was already on the lead, which makes it relatively meaningless. Certainly someone that deserves far more scrutiny than she's getting.

Shasta - hm. I kinda like how he thinks outside the box, but I certainly don't like how he leaves voting for the last minute every time and fails to leave any kind of trail that way. Also, he seems to be flying under the whole village's radar. Why hasn't basically anyone suspected him so far?


Leaning guilty

Zil - to be quite honest, I'm not as sure as I used to be. I kinda relate to him and his misguided zeal, and in any case I can hardly judge that. Still, there's still a wealth of incriminating facts against him, and Greenie not finding anything to dispute the possibility of him being fellows with Huine and Lhuna certainly doesn't help. So: despite the almost staggering evidence, I'm not convinced Zil is a wolf, but I wouldn't forgive myself if I let Zilwolf waltz into victory after how much I have been on his trail.

Eönwë - he's just not sitting right with me in this game at all. Granted, I could be a little blinded by his persistent suspicion for me which makes very little innocent sense from my pov, but he just sounds fake to me most of the time and he keeps concentrating on things I personally find trivial. Also I see Greenie didn't find anything decisive about him, and I still find the implications of Lalaith's death about him a little concerning. Yes, it's possile the wolves really only caught onto Lalaith's words about Kitanna and Legate, and Eönwë just happens to be an unfortunate innocent she heavily suspected (but then: why not "dream" of Legate instead of him on N4?). But I would say it's about as likely that a wolf pack including Wolfwë thought there was seerish intent in how Lalaith tried to recruit others behind her Eönwë case.

THE Ka - I've said for a few Days now that how she seems harmless by operating in her own "bubble", posting content but steering clear from controversial topics, is very alarming to me and reminds me of her past wolfy self. Plus, her Lhuna vote from yesterDay has a bit of the vibe of a wolf voting in a way that would make her look good (following the qt, staying clear of the "likely" lynch candidates who have been under fire that Day ie me, Zil and Boro - especially if we happened to all be innocent) and simply not expecting a bandwagon to form in her footsteps.


Parting commentary:

About Greenie's analysis which I'm using to help myself: yes, she could be a wolf twisting the facts to her own liking, but I doubt she's lying about anything (that would be somewhat unsporting and unwise). So it's her conclusions one should be wary of. Usually this kind of analyses get a lot of stuff right but there usually is at least one member of the wolf pack who turns out to be one of the "no way would this be fellow wolves with known wolf x". So I'm using Greenie's conclusions and taking them with a pinch of salt. Also good to remember she didn't understandably analyse herself, and who knows what we'd find there. (If memory serves, she and Huine scarcely mentioned each other, and she and Lhuna didn't greatly suspect each other at least. Potentially quite wolfy, I daresay.)

About my analyses of the last two kills: It's entirely possible I'm reading the wolf kills' posts more thoroughly than the wolves themselves have. After all, in a village of this size, if they're debating between several kill choices, would they have the time to go through all their posts from Day1 onwards? Maybe, but also maybe not. Not a reason to discredit my findings, but a thing to keep in mind.


edit: xed with Zil and Boro - yay, signs of life!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Looking back on the last few minutes to see where my head's at gives me a pool of Lommy, Brinn, and Pitch. Based on prior QTs, it's entirely possible I'll wake up, see how everything has gone, and be shruggy about any wagon that isn't one of those three.

Brinn still worries me going back to Day 1. The fact that her vote put Huey in front is a point in her favor, but yesterDay's on Lhuna said nothing.
I suspected Pitch early on, and his following Lhuna's vote yesterDay does look a bit sketchy. That would be pretty bold if they were mates, though.
Lommy looks better for her Lhuna vote at a critical time, but I can't discount spontaneous wolf-on-wolf, with the knowledge that there would still be three of them left.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

It feels like Zil is a bit of a meme at this point. Like, he hasn't really been on my radar, I recall agreeing with a couple of things he had to say, but I feel like literally everyone else suspects him (I recall seeing several versions of "And Zil, he's just been suspicious all game, I don't need to go into detail here")

I'd like to be a meme. Awesome.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I would be very surprised if at last one of these isn't an Infector.

Lommy I've certainly suspected, but Boro has been an enigma the whole time. I seem to remember him acting like this before, but it's been to long to recall the circumstances.