Game Thread: TIG XCII - Disaster by the Lake

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Gal

ToDay I will just pretend to be deaf to his posts and try my best to ignore his comments. If he's serving for the evil side (which I'm almost 100% sure he is) he'll try to use all kinds of tricks on us before he dies (if he dies, but he'll use them either way), and personally I don't want my mind muddled with reverse psychology and associations and whatnot from him. He sure knows how to confuse people. I don't want to be led around by him to a wrong direction.

Er - what? This almost makes me feel better about Nog, you know. Looks too much like the wolves having decided during the night to lynch Nog during the Day, and Gal enters the Day considering it a done deal that Nog's the one to lynch. And even if that isn't the case, I don't think anyone can afford to completely ignore someone because they've decided that person's evil. Not at this phase.

I'm not happy with Sally's reveal, either. What's the point of a Hunter reveal, anyway? It makes no sense for us to kill her, does it, we'd just let her decide the lynch instead of us, and lose two villagers instead of one. And if she's really the Hunter, there's no way the wolves are going to go after her now - thus narrowing their options for the Seer, and basically making her own gift useless. I don't get it. Posing as Hunter might be a feasible tack for a Wolf though, if she trusted that we won't choose to lynch her, or a Cobbler: ideally, we'd spend the Day discussing who she should take with her, and when she dies it all turns out to be for nothing. A complete waste of a Day with practically no danger to the wolves at all.

Gah. My head hurts. I have limited time toDay as well but I'll do my best.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not happy with Sally's reveal, either. What's the point of a Hunter reveal, anyway?

Color me stupid, I completely ignored the fact she could be revealing as a hunter. :/ Must be the people I work with, they're low intelligence is finally rubbing off.

Posing as Hunter might be a feasible tack for a Wolf though, if she trusted that we won't choose to lynch her, or a Cobbler: ideally, we'd spend the Day discussing who she should take with her, and when she dies it all turns out to be for nothing. A complete waste of a Day with practically no danger to the wolves at all.

I remember when our mod posed as the seer and when the real seer (Shasta, perhaps?) came forward he was lynched that day. Sally hasn't said much for me to make any good judgement on her. There's a few things to consider.

1) Would a wolf false reveal when there's no danger for her yet? Doubtful unless she thought a packmate was in danger. A reveal causes a stir and other discussion would be diverted, at least for a short time.
2) Did Sally think she was being helpful? I had to drop out of a game once and I offered my hunter skills up to the village because it was earlier in the game. If Sally is innocent and truly the hunter she may think being sacrificed will take down a wolf too. The odds of getting a wolf are 1/3. Hitting another special role (excluding cobbler) is almost as likely though. And asking Sally to tell us her choice may force another valuable gifted to reveal. Why lose a known innocent, and one who is too dangerous to kill at night, when our village is so small?
3) Sally could still be a wolf or cobbler trying to create confusion, but now the real hunter would know who to go after.

I don't think Sally is a wolf. A cobbler? Maybe. The hunter? Maybe. As a wolf, doing a false reveal doesn't gain her anything, she wasn't in danger of being lynched. As the hunter, she becomes a known innocent that wolves might not want to kill because she could have one of them pegged. As a cobbler, she fulfills her role and we sit and debate instead of focusing our efforts on wolf catching.

I'm going to sleep a little while longer. When I return I'm going to scrutinize and comment on everything I missed Day 2.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And why "burned dough"?

Burned potatoes. Better? I was saying that I thought you made a blunder.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Er - what? This almost makes me feel better about Nog, you know. Looks too much like the wolves having decided during the night to lynch Nog during the Day, and Gal enters the Day considering it a done deal that Nog's the one to lynch. And even if that isn't the case, I don't think anyone can afford to completely ignore someone because they've decided that person's evil. Not at this phase.

I think I have been pretty clear that I do not think Nog is wolf. That being said, he's most likely a cobbler known to the village. A cobbler messes things up - esecially one who is revealed. If he says "X is wolf", should I think that X is really not a wolf and Nog is just tricking me, or is he using reverse psychology on me, or is that just a random name drawn out of nowhere? I have better things to do toDay except for puzzling this out. And I do not want to chase down cobblers. I want to get a wolf. Now.

Originally Posted by Greenie

It makes no sense for us to kill her, does it, we'd just let her decide the lynch instead of us, and lose two villagers instead of one.

So you don't have faith that sally has a wolf on the edge of her, erm... pen?

I agree with you that we should just lynch the wolf and let sally choose a different target - hopefully another wolf - thus being more effective. But I don't find her furry for that. If I say that A is a wolf, you say that B is, and someone else says that C&D are, we can't have a proper organised lynch. Then, according to her, we lynch sally who takes out a wolf. The only problem is that we won't get an organised sally-lynch either. Some will say that it's our only chance, others will call it absurd.

Originally Posted by Greenie

And if she's really the Hunter, there's no way the wolves are going to go after her now - thus narrowing their options for the Seer, and basically making her own gift useless.

You're forgetting about the third gifted. The Ranger can do miracles.

Originally Posted by Greenie

ideally, we'd spend the Day discussing who she should take with her, and when she dies it all turns out to be for nothing.

No, we won't. She can't choose her pick during the Day. And it's supposed to be a surprise during the Night, a secret weapon, so why would we tell the wolves "sally's hunting X toNight"? This is a waste of gift. We should be trying to find a wolf, and she should make her pick based on that.

I have to say this about you, Greenie. You're starting to look more and more like a wolf trying to save a comrade by labeling sally guilty.


@Kit: If you think that sally could be the cobbler, which role do you think Nog has? They can't both be cobblers, and Nog just as good as fake-revealed Seer.


So far there's me and Bom thinking sally has the village's best intentions at heart, and Greenie and Nerwen thinking that she doesn't, and Kit undecided. Is that right?

Edit: xed with 2 Nerwens

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

You're forgetting about the third gifted. The Ranger can do miracles.

Meaning?

Originally Posted by G55

.
No, we won't. She can't choose her pick during the Day. And it's supposed to be a surprise during the Night, a secret weapon, so why would we tell the wolves "sally's hunting X toNight"?

Um... I think Greenie's talking about a Sally–as–Cobbler scenario there, G55– though she certainly could have been clearer about it.

Originally Posted by G55

@Kit: If you think that sally could be the cobbler, which role do you think Nog has? They can't both be cobblers, and Nog just as good as fake-revealed Seer.

Well, what he did yesterDay was darned peculiar, I'll grant you that. Are you sure he meant it to be taken as a reveal, though? Seers can't usually see the Cobbler, after all. (Don't think that's been clarified for this game.)

Originally Posted by G55

So far there's me and Bom thinking sally has the village's best intentions at heart, and Greenie and Nerwen thinking that she doesn't, and Kit undecided. Is that right?

I'd say I'm more "undecided". I don't think what she's doing is in the village's interests– but I can't yet rule out that she thinks it is. It's hard to know where you are with Sally– she likes to pull weird stunts now and then, whatever her role.

[Nerwen]

Wait a minute–

Originally Posted by G55

I think I have been pretty clear that I do not think Nog is wolf. That being said, he's most likely a cobbler known to the village. A cobbler messes things up - esecially one who is revealed. If he says "X is wolf", should I think that X is really not a wolf and Nog is just tricking me, or is he using reverse psychology on me, or is that just a random name drawn out of nowhere? I have better things to do toDay except for puzzling this out. And I do not want to chase down cobblers. I want to get a wolf. Now.

I didn't get this before. Are you saying you *don't* want to lynch Nog, and that we should have realised this *because* you think he's a cobbler?

[Nerwen]

Anyway, here it is–

Pitch, Day Two.
#118.
Thinks Kath was a trailless kill. Still suspicious of Nog for his gifted-speculations. Asks Lottie to explain why she said Nog and Greenie might be packmates.

Comment: I don't think she has, yet. Lottie?

#128.
"Flip-flopping" about Kit. Her posts look "fair, balanced and independent", but she has done a very peculiar about-face overnight on Greenie, which he finds suspicious.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So yes, I know, wolves can be consistent while innocents may need to change their minds, but I'd still like to hear how "making a decent point" and "the best case for a lynch candidate" became "said a lot with saying a lot" and twisting words? Especially as Kit seems to me to be largely echoing Nog's self defense.

#132.
Accepts Nog's point that Agan, not he, was the first to speculate about G55.


#136.
Rule discussion; disagrees with Shasta that Agan is "witch-hunting" Pitch himself, but wants to know how Nog changed from "someone you [Agan] trusted enough to save his life yesterDay to a baddie you could imagine voting for toDay?"


#141. After Kit's bad-news announcement.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Dang! I actually considered voting Kit toDay (see #128 above), but under these circumstances that would feel really mean.

Anyway, I'm sorry to hear that, Kit; hope it's not that bad.

#144.

Originally Posted by Pitch

What?

I mean, she might be for all I know, but do you have reasons or are you completely bonkers now?

Well, yes, it's a very good question, isn't it? Where *is* Nogrod, anyway?


#150.
Shasta-Agan row "interesting". Shasta's case on Agan is "twisted", and Shasta himself rather reminiscent of Shastawolf. But he 'just can't read him". Agan, meanwhile, is "a sphinx".

Comment: this post does look quite a bit like Seer-code for "opinions not based on my dreams". I doubt that alone would be enough, though.


#154
Dubious about Greenie's apparent trust in him.


#157
"Could get behind" Nog's (inevitable!) suggestion to lynch the quiet ones.


#162.
Wants to hear more from Agan. Would like to give Nog, Shasta and Greenie more time. Has "seen nothing furry in Lottie (yet)".

Comment: that last is another *slightly* Seerish remark.


#169.
Thinks Nog and Agan could be packmates; "not fully at ease" about Shasta, but not ready to vote him.


#181.Votes Agan, to find out "if [Nog] speaks truth", promising to "examine Shasta toMorrow" if Agan turns out innocent.

Well, that was a lot of use. The only things really noteworthy are his suspicions on Shasta and Kit, especially his saying he intended to vote the latter. However, it doesn't seem all that likely either of those would be taken as Seer-hints– his suspicion of Kit, for example, is clearly based on her posting. Is it possible a Kitwolf or a Shastawolf wanted him killed just because he was looking too dangerous? Or is that a reach? It does seem a pretty clumsy move.

[satansaloser2005]

I thought there were only eight people left in the game. At that point, it's essentially game over unless we can be sure we kill the right person. By revealing as the hunter, I removed myself as a lynch target, which increased our chances of getting a wolf toDay, and if we realized partway through the Day that our target was another gifted, the hunter is always preferable to the ranger or seer as a lynch target. (ETA because the Downs somehow ate part of my post: Desperate times call for desperate measures, and it's the hunter's job to take drastic and suicidal measures.)

However, there are nine people left. Thus, I should have waited to reveal until toMorrow. I miscalculated and made a really, really stupid mistake, and I apologize for that.

This is going so very well.

[satansaloser2005]

If we're in doubt about whether someone is wolf or cobbler, that person is not a wise lynch target for toDay.

[Nerwen]

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

EDIT:X'd with Sally and G55. I'm replying to Sally here.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

#196 - sally reveals.

#209 - she finds her mistake.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

EDIT:X'd with Sally and G55. I'm replying to Sally here.

Yeah. After I'd made the reveal post, I realized I couldn't count correctly.

Yesterday was a really long day. I have no other excuse.


ETA: x'd with Galadriel, who also confirms my stupidity

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

Exactly what I said. Kit is forgetting that the Ranger is also awake at Night.

Unless this is a *very* special Ranger, he or she can't force the wolves to pick the Hunter– which I think is what was under discussion at that point.

He left a few "clues" just before his "Agan is a cobbler". I am quite sure of it.

Like what?

Originally Posted by G55

Clarifying. Looking from his perspective, yesterDay he probably expected us to lynch him toDay, thus giving the wolves another Day in the lead. I suggest lynching a wolf, not a cobbler, so that we won't give the baddies the lead. Cobbler counts innocent in the tally, and I would like to use that as our advantage. Lynching wolf is more important than getting rid of a cobbler, especially at this stage.

Originally Posted by Sally

If we're in doubt about whether someone is wolf or cobbler, that person is not a wise lynch target for toDay.

But barring Seer-dreams, there is *always* that doubt in any game with a cobbler. We'd never lynch anyone at all, following your argument.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Meaning?

Exactly what I said. Kit is forgetting that the Ranger is also awake at Night.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, what he did yesterDay was darned peculiar, I'll grant you that. Are you sure he meant it to be taken as a reveal, though? Seers can't usually see the Cobbler, after all. (Don't think that's been clarified for this game.)

He left a few "clues" just before his "Agan is a cobbler". I am quite sure of it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I didn't get this before. Are you saying you *don't* want to lynch Nog, and that we should have realised this *because* you think he's a cobbler?

Clarifying. Looking from his perspective, yesterDay he probably expected us to lynch him toDay, thus giving the wolves another Day in the lead. I suggest lynching a wolf, not a cobbler, so that we won't give the baddies the lead. Cobbler counts innocent in the tally, and I would like to use that as our advantage. Lynching wolf is more important than getting rid of a cobbler, especially at this stage.

Edit: xed with SallyX2

[Nerwen]

Hear ye, hear ye! Unseasonable weather kept your Town Crier from her proclamations earlier in the Day, but all's well!

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Er - what? This almost makes me feel better about Nog, you know. Looks too much like the wolves having decided during the night to lynch Nog during the Day, and Gal enters the Day considering it a done deal that Nog's the one to lynch. And even if that isn't the case, I don't think anyone can afford to completely ignore someone because they've decided that person's evil. Not at this phase.

We-ell, by her own account G55 was utterly convinced no innocent-Nog scenario could logically exist... but that does seem a little convenient. I can't say I've been getting much in the way of "wolf-vibes" from G55 in this game, though. Except maybe that she seems rather jittery about my Pitchalysis.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm not happy with Sally's reveal, either. What's the point of a Hunter reveal, anyway? It makes no sense for us to kill her, does it, we'd just let her decide the lynch instead of us, and lose two villagers instead of one. And if she's really the Hunter, there's no way the wolves are going to go after her now - thus narrowing their options for the Seer, and basically making her own gift useless. I don't get it.

And after the suicidal-hunter tactic worked so brilliantly last game...

Originally Posted by Greenie

Posing as Hunter might be a feasible tack for a Wolf though, if she trusted that we won't choose to lynch her, or a Cobbler: ideally, we'd spend the Day discussing who she should take with her, and when she dies it all turns out to be for nothing. A complete waste of a Day with practically no danger to the wolves at all.

To echo Kit– it doesn't seem that useful for a wolf-Sally to do that, at this point. On the other hand–

Originally Posted by Kit

As the hunter, she becomes a known innocent that wolves might not want to kill because she could have one of them pegged.

I still don't see why a Hunter would think that worth being more-or-less neutralised. (I know Sally already answered me on this point, but her answer really doesn't make much sense.)

[Nerwen]

Mind you–

Originally Posted by Kit

If Sally is innocent and truly the hunter she may think being sacrificed will take down a wolf too. The odds of getting a wolf are 1/3. The odds of getting a wolf are 1/3. Hitting another special role (excluding cobbler) is almost as likely though. And asking Sally to tell us her choice may force another valuable gifted to reveal.

According to TEH ROOLZ, Bard is a Logical Hunter, so the total disaster of last game couldn't happen this time. It would still be a bizarrely wasteful and over-complicated manouevre, though.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I still don't see why a Hunter would think that worth being more-or-less neutralised. (I know Sally already answered me on this point, but her answer really doesn't make much sense.)

This is a possibility, but not necessarily a good plan. The wolves might not want to kill, but wolves like to get rid of known innocents because that's one more person not getting lynched instead of them.

Originally Posted by G55

So you don't have faith that sally has a wolf on the edge of her, erm... pen?
...
The only problem is that we won't get an organised sally-lynch either. Some will say that it's our only chance, others will call it absurd.

But she might not have a wolf is the problem. She could easily kill one of the six people who aren't wolves. I count the cobbler because even though the role isn't exactly innocent, at this point we need a wolf, not a wolf's village helper.

Originally Posted by G55

@Kit: If you think that sally could be the cobbler, which role do you think Nog has? They can't both be cobblers, and Nog just as good as fake-revealed Seer

I said it was something to consider. I saw Nog's "Agan is the cobbler" but like I said with Sally, there are other options to consider. He's certainly likely the cobbler with a statement like that, but an expert wolf like Nog could hide himself in that.

Originally Posted by G55

So far there's me and Bom thinking sally has the village's best intentions at heart, and Greenie and Nerwen thinking that she doesn't, and Kit undecided. Is that right?

If Sally is really our hunter, then she's trying to do us favor by offering her gift, but I think her idea is a bad one to follow in case she hasn't picked out a wolf.
I'm mostly undecided because so many scenarios have played out in WW that I don't find it safe or wise to accept things on good faith. I'd rather examine other options and decide based on that.

Originally Posted by Sally

I removed myself as a lynch target, which increased our chances of getting a wolf toDay, and if we realized partway through the Day that our target was another gifted, the hunter is always preferable to the ranger or seer as a lynch target.

True, but Sally, what if your target ends up being one of said roles?

Originally Posted by Sally

If we're in doubt about whether someone is wolf or cobbler, that person is not a wise lynch target for toDay.

I think a lot of us are in doubt though.

Originally Posted by G55

Exactly what I said. Kit is forgetting that the Ranger is also awake at Night.

You quoted Greenie, not me.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Sally is a bit worrisome. She seems to decide what she thinks of people and refuses to even look at their posts anymore because she doesn't think her mind can be changed. That seems much more like a wolf, who does know whether or not someone is a wolf and thus doesn't have to wonder whether or not they're wrong than an innocent, who has to keep recalculating and questioning their judgement.

You spent your two posts prior to this saying how Sally was innocent and how she'd not use a big trick. So...what do you really think of Sally? Why the sudden change when you were sure she was telling the truth.

X-posted with Nerwen: Maybe you're the cobbler, but I guess you count as everyone.

[Nogrod]

A quick comment...

We (Lommy, Greenie, Legate & myself) are having a Star Wars marathon. The fourth movie just started.

I haven't had time to read toDay's posts yet and will be online only around the last hours - and I don't yet know how we're going to solve the playing problem with Greenie with most probably only one internet connection (but two laptops, anyway). But we'll both take part in this later on.


One thing I thought you might be asking about - and I actually saw someone asking about it altready loading this page... the "Agan is a cobbler affair". If you look at her post just above where I say that, she basically makes a "Legate 180" - and adding that to my earlier suspicions kind of made it and I felt I was sure she was the cobbler - and I just wrote it before reading further. When I then saw someone was interpreting my words in a seerish manner I didn't wish to object to that as I knew we had this "marathon-day" toDay and I was ready to take the bullet during the Night if I was right (thus saving the real seer) - and I was quite positive I was right... or then she would be a wolf which would be even better.

But I clearly was wrong... and reckless to that matter, looking from hindsight.

Anyway. I'll try my best later on (only three movies to go ).

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A quick comment...

We (Lommy, Greenie, Legate & myself) are having a Star Wars marathon. The fourth movie just started.

Bah hum bug. Jealousy. For the past month I've been desperately desiring a SW marathon (that includes 1 thru 3, eventhough I don't really care for 1 or 2). Problem is, I still don't have 4 thru 6 on DVD to complete the marathon .

Ah well, have fun.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, obviously I was wrong about Agan and am back to square one. I do have to wonder if Sally is a wolf claiming to be the hunter because she believes the real hunter won't come forward and waste his/her role like that... but I'm leaning toward Sally being an innocent frustrated at her own mistake.

[Kitanna]

Bom:
Post 1 & 2: Not much. He did say he was going to post a Zil analysis but it was a mess, his always are. I'm confused as to what that means.

And then he didn't vote. The only thing from today is that he "revealed" as an ordo, but who wouldn't say that? He does support Sally's plan of everyone revealing and I don't like that he agreed so quick with only "it can be a mess when people reveal" as a point against it.

Sally:
Post 3: Her first real substance.

Agan is a cobbler; thus sayeth Nog. But Nog is acting strangely as far as I can see it, so while I'm inclined to believe him, I'm not inclined to trust his motives. Bom is clearly insane and, as always, a self-confessed cobbler. This time I'm not reacting to it, at least at this stage in the game. The interaction between Pitch and Agan is interesting to me, so I'm thinking I'd vote for one of them, but that would be agreeing with Nog, another person I suspect, so I'm not entirely sure what to do.

Post 4: Asks Agan to convince her of innocence.
Post 6: Votes Nog.

Today she's revealed herself as the hunter. I don't think she's a wolf, but I haven't decided if she's the cobbler or the hunter.

Nog:
I have other things to do, so in the case of vocal players I'm going to summarize on the whole instead of post by post.

PS. anyone willing to criticize others for not making strong enough arguments should produce at least one themselves before going critical...

Now that actually makes me interested, not that I'm too happy to discuss me as we have other things to do and talking about someone also heightens the chance of that person being lynched, but just out of curiosity: could you please show me some illogicality as I do doubt having been illogical.

Other than that, I still suspect Greenie the most.

That is the easy way out. Give some reasons so I can try to tell you why you're wrong.

Just saying: "blah-blah, say what you want, I just am not convinced" is not the most fruitful approach to a game of Werewolf. Especially if the other person has explained why the reasons the other one claims to suspect him are false.

Btw. Agan is the cobbler.

But I'd feel better voting Agan than Greenie. I still suspect Greenie and I think I have good reasons for it. It's just that I started wawering with my thoughts reading her posting late toDay... although her vote pick still screams to me she was just sweet-talking only to vote from wolvish grounds.

And he votes Agan.

So what I don't like about Nogrod is how he seems to insisting how people play the game, and that's to his model for WW. I found it irksome and at times rude and I agree with Pitch when he told him to get off his high horse. I bolded a few lines that give me extra cause for concern.

Nog is very good at playing the village and leading everyone into the wrong direction. He'd be a perfect cobbler, but for these reasons I feel he could be a wolf playing on the cobbler role. He stated he won't be around much today, so it's hard to say what he'll do from here...

[Kitanna]

Lottie, I reread your post. Sally's name was bolded at the start of a new line so I misread what you said was actually about G55. That certainly makes me rethink my position on you.

Shasta:
Post 1: Says he will look at Agan.
Post 2:

Agan evidences suspicion of me (for being sneaky), but all day her main target was Lottie. The only thing she said about Inzil was in regards to defending Nogrod. Since the only reason I can see Agan voting Inzil is to save Nog, I find it interesting that the very first thing Agan says starting Day 2 is "I am torn about Nog" (which is a far cry from the absolute trust she had in him Day 1) but doesn't go on to explain why, really.

He sums up his observations and quotes with this little bit about Agan.
Post 3: Says "I knew it" in response to Nog's "Agan is the cobbler."
Post 4: Agrees when Lottie says Agan should be the lynch candidate, hardly a surprise.
Post 5: Votes Agan.

Agan is now a proven innocent and Shasta was very wrong. But looking at his break down of Agan, I don't feel like he's particularly evil. His case against her doesn't look forced, but more like an innocent trying his hardest to find a wolf.
Today he's voted Bom and he's leaning toward an innocent Sally. Other than that there hasn't been much.

Green
Shasta
Sally

I don't think Sally's a wolf, a false reveal when she was in no danger isn't something I see wolf-Sally doing.
Shasta, though wrong about Agan, did seem genuinely suspicious of her and made a compelling case, too bad it was wrong.

Yellow
Greenie
Nog
G55
Nerwen
Lottie

I won't have the chance to review Greenie's others post, so my suspicions for yesterday still stand.
Nog, he's guilty of something. Wolvery or cobberly, I'm leaning more toward the latter.
I just don't know what to think about G55.
Nerwen hasn't said much that stands out to me, she could be the submarine wolf.
I did have Lottie in the red until she pointed out that I misread her post. She stated being busy on Day 2, but she did answer the questions I asked about her choices yesterday. I don't like her reasons that "they were just posting suspiciously though"

Red
Bom

Bom was too quick to trust Sally today. He's been a submarine for sure. As an innocent I almost always see him jump all over trying to defend himself when the slightest bit of suspicion falls on him. Now he's suddenly so cautious and quiet? I don't trust that.

[satansaloser2005]

I slept through a good portion of the day, and then I refreshed the Downs....and killed the post I'd been working on before.

I think Bom is our best bet for toDay. His reaction to my reveal was too eager, possibly opportunistic, and he's acting like a Bom!cub.

Galadriel and Nerwen had fair reactions to my reveal, but I think an innocent Nerwen would have simply shook her head and moved on. Instead, Nerwen brought it up repeatedly, doubting what was a clear reveal and trying to dissect my motives when there was next to no reason for me to make such a reveal if I were evil. (Also, I would expect an innocent Nerwen to be more understanding of my mistake, which she wasn't and, I believe, still isn't. It seems like staged upset at my mix-up.)


EDIT: x'd

[Kitanna]

++ Bom

I need to vote now because I feel like my friend might not like it if I highjack her computer during her birthday party to vote.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I need to vote now because I feel like my friend might not like it if I highjack her computer during her birthday party to vote.

Cake fixes everything.

Have fun, peaches. We'll kill wolvies while you're gone.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Mmm. Kit looks opportunistic as all get-out now. The fact that Bom gets jumped on as soon as I vote him also has alarm bells going off extremely loud.

[Loslote]

I don't like this Bomwagon that's springing up. We need to get a wolf toDay, and I am not at all convinced that Bom is, in fact, a wolf. I'd be much happier with maybe a Nog or G55. I feel like "he's a submarine" is a really poor argument for lynching someone this late in the game, especially when there's so much riding on this lynch.

EDIT: xed with Shasta

[Nogrod]

This sudden interest in lynching Bom makes me quite worried... Had you asked me on whether to lynch him on D1, I might have supported the idea just on principle. But now as the numbers have dwindled I'm not too happy with what I see. It looks like too random an idea right now - but convenient for the wolves if he's innocent...

Shasta, Kit, Galadriel and Greenie top my list now (I would not be surprised if Nerwen or Sally were wolves either - and well, why not Lottie to involve you all), but I must admit that anything I say now is built up on very weak considerations as I have not been able to concentrate on the posts toDay...


PS. Darth Vader is dying just now... I might be able to concentrate in a moment.

PS2. I'm afraid we (Greenie & I) will have some problems with sharing the connection now as we only have one mobile internet-stick and changing it does seem to take time...


EDIT: X'd with the last three it seems...

[Kitanna]

Day 2
G55
Post 1: Pitch is likely innocent. Bom is Bom and that doesn't say much. No conclusion on Nerwen, but knows she can be "deadly sharp". Myself, Shasta, and Greenie are hopefully innocent.

Nog: sometimes made neat points, but at other times he has been plain illogical. I don’t want to condemn him right away because of that, though; he might be an innocent who looks at things differently than I do, or he might be a wolf who left some holes in his persuasion, or a cobbler who is just messing with our heads and taking our attention off the real wolves. Currently I think the last two are more likely.

Lottie has been defensive, but sees she had a reason for it, but isn't sure Lottie's normal behavior. Finds Agan confusing.
Explains her "Night" quote from Day 1 as just lamenting her luck, which was what was generally considered.
Post 2:

How could you be suspicious or not suspicious about someone who isn’t there? This statement had me scratching my head.

Her general uncertainness of Bom continues
Post 4: Argues with Nog about calling his posts illogical. He didn't acknowledge that she wasn't including all his arguments in that statement, just some (her post 2 of the day has the "illogical quote in it). She highlights a few arguments she's talking about. I won't quote them here because it'll be a long annoying quote for everyone to read. Here's her post. In short she says she makes confusing posts too and that wouldn't be why she votes Nog.

But as I read, you make a defense about yourself in general... A very good one, if not too good. It makes me feel uneasy...

Voting either Agan or Nog. They are attracting way to much attention for my peace of mind. I haven't commented on Agan since most of her posts have been chewed already by others in my absence.

Post 5: Pitch is still innocent. Agan and Nog have attracted too much attention. Now is this attention from her? Or attention in general? Attracting attention doesn't seem like a good reason to suspect someone, considering innocents (Agan is exhibit A) attract attention and get lynched more often than wolves in these games. Back to her list...
She can't decide on Greenie. Bom, Sally, and Nerwen are hiding. She wants to see more Nerwen than the other two. Lottie seems innocent, but is too "sweet-tongued" for her taste. Shasta isn't unreasonable and no opinion of me.
Post 6: Votes Nog. She found his posts illogical, but I want clarification on her "attracts too much attention" posts from earlier.

Today: The main thing I want to touch on now is the fact she has completely written off Nog as the cobbler. She does say he could be a wolf, but seems to dismiss this for the belief he's the cobbler. Based on her own belief that he is thus, she questioned me why I said Sally could be the cobbler and not him.

Nerwen:
Post 1: Highlights that she thinks Lottie was suspected more for backing off than for suspecting Bom.
Post 2: Says there's no such thing as a no-trace kill, but there's always questions about why so-and-so, but not blahty-blah.

And that's all she wrote. Nice for me when I'm commenting on what everyone said, but bad because I barely had an opinion of her Day 1 and this gives me nothing. We'll see what happens today. I haven't noticed anything that really stands out yet.

Loslote:
Post 1: She still isn't happy about Nog's reasonings, but isn't so ready to lynch him yet.

I also feel like a Nog-Agan wolf team would be completely out of the question, which makes me feel a bit better about Agan. A Nog-Greenie pack, on the other hand, would almost make sense given the dynamic they ended up with yesterDay...but that's just speculation. YesterDay really doesn't offer anything more solid than that.

Why did she suspect a Greenie-Nog team based on the day before? They were at each other's throats, which is a pretty risking wolf-on-wolf tactic on Day 1.
She says Kath accused just about everyone. Wolves could be hiding in Kath's list or hiding on those not listed, which only Sally made it onto.
post 2:

I am feeling much better about Greenie after toDay's posting, and even Nog's posts are feeling more like a frustrated innocent than a wolf...and I feel good about Shasta and Pitchie, too. Basically...who's up for an Agan lynch?

She had felt better about Agan originally and now she's changed her mind. She had said she wouldn't be around much, but if she's around today, I'd like to see why she stopped suspecting Greenie and Nog and decided on Agan?
Post 3:

I've started to reconsider my suspicion of Nog because of his posting toDay, I've reopened the question of Agan's guilt) and for her not exactly helpful arguementativeness throughout the game.

I still want specifics on this.

Today she's said three things. Two of which were "I trust Sally" or "This isn't a Sally-trick". Then she says she thinks Sally is a wolf masquerading.

I'm just going in order of who posted first, second, etc. But I need a break, so next it'll be Bom, Sally, Nog, and Greenie for sure. And eventually Shasta, Agan, and Pitch.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Why did she suspect a Greenie-Nog team based on the day before? They were at each other's throats, which is a pretty risking wolf-on-wolf tactic on Day 1.

Maybe it is risky, but I've done it before. Recently, actually. And it seemed like they'd set themselves up perfectly for wolf-on-wolf.

She had felt better about Agan originally and now she's changed her mind. She had said she wouldn't be around much, but if she's around today, I'd like to see why she stopped suspecting Greenie and Nog and decided on Agan?

I'd had the three set up in my mind as...almost counter-balances. If Nog was guilty, then Greenie probably was, too, and Agan almost certainly wasn't - and vice versa. Originally, I'd seen Nog and Greenie as the more suspicious pair, but in Day 2, they both seemed to be posting more innocently and Agan seemed to be posting more suspiciously. In my mind, it seemed as though the scale had tipped, and Agan was the more likely to be a wolf. She wasn't, as it happens, but that was what I was thinking when I voted.

Today she's said three things. Two of which were "I trust Sally" or "This isn't a Sally-trick". Then she says she thinks Sally is a wolf masquerading.

As I said earlier, no. Just no. That's entirely false.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Bom

With two hours to go and not a lot being said, I'm throwing down my vote for Bom. He fits the profile of "sit back and watch" wolf, and I feel like he'd be new enough to wolvery that he'd be more likely to play it too cautious and say nothing rather than be too loud and potentially slip.