WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Cailín]

I wanted to look into Loslote and Nessa, because I seem to be swayed by the suspicion against them. I also decided - based on a gut feeling - to analyse Wilwarin and elronds_daughter even though I had taken little note of them before.

So far I only had time for Wilwarin and Nessa. Don't expect these analyses to be like a glass of clear, cool water, though, because my thoughts are seldom quite as organised as some of the die-hards here.

Wilwarin

#77 seems offended by the discussion about roles and behaviour. Tone is somewhat patronizing, which I have rarely seen from Wilwa before. Antagonises more people by “refusing to jump on the Pitch wagon”.
She lists some initial thoughts on people, mostly based on past performance and behavior. Who are Cupcake and Pop?

#83 argues with Rikae, which prompts a vote from Rikae’s end.

#88 agrees with Legate that Loslote’s post looks somewhat suspicious. Confusion about a possible Cobbler hint from Aganzir detected by Legate.

#89 Clarifies her fear of a Pitch wagon

#93 Defends herself against Pitch’s accusations. Says she does not suspect Legate or Loslote yet, though concedes there are some legitimate reasons to suspect Lottie.

#106 Defends herself again, this time against Boro, who was a staunch defender of the roles and rules discussion. Her tone is milder now.

#116 Ah, Cupcake refers to Sally. Wilwarin does not like her post, mainly because of the whole Cobbler thing (she does not mention this explicitly in an attempt to conceal from the Cobbler / Wolves what she obviously thinks is a good idea). She defends Skip and questions Sally’s assessment of Kitanna.

#123 suspects Sally (and has various reasonable arguments for Day 1) and thinks she will vote for her today.

#129 votes for Sally.

#134 again defends herself against Kath, who misrepresented Wilwa’s initial post in her analysis. Defends herself against accusations of defensiveness (always counterproductive)

#160 does not like Aganzir drawing attention to Sally’s point about the Cobbler (which was also Wilwa’s main reason for voting Sally) and suspects Aganzir might not have the village’s best interest at heart.

Today

#171 defends her decision to vote for Sally again referring to the Cobbler incident.

Wilwarin has been quite consistent so far. She does seem fairly defensive – not just of herself but of other people as well – and such behavior always leads to discomfort. However, she was one of the few people yesterday who bothered to build a case – however wrong it may have been – against someone and stated her reasons for her vote as clearly and lucidly as she thought advisable. At the moment I doubt she is evil.

Nessa

#28 starts with some maths. I won’t argue with that.

#55 Confused about Rikae’s suspicion of Pitchwife. Suggests Rikae “seems to know something we don’t”

#64 explains her lack of participation

#147 votes Rikae. Claims her post was misinterpreted and she had meant to accuse Rikae, not out her as a possible Seer. Says Rikae has been jumpy. Unsure about the Legate-is-the-Cobbler debate and the suspicion against Sally.

Today

#211 votes Rikae again and does not think she will be back.

There is really so very little to go on here. Post #55 looks weird, but could just be carelessly phrased. She hardly comments on any of the other players. I have never played with Nessa before, so I cannot comment on her style (to me it looks like she may be relatively new to the game). She has definitely done little to make her look innocent.

[Inziladun]

I would prefer to keep Kit as a known innocent and a thorn in the side of the wolves, but her words seem to indicate she won't be able to do anything more in the game, be it voting, or just observing the thread in order to decide who she should hunt. Her most recent post said it was "the last post she can make", not specifying that only went for toDay, or the rest of the game. She seems convinced she's going to be modfired, and wants to instead go out using her gift.
So, if she's merely modfired, we don't risk innocent blood being spilled with her, but her gift will be wasted. There are five baddies, including the Cobbler. That's a decent chance of her getting one of them.
As far as wolves go, I'm still concerned about Val, Nessa, and maybe Pitch. I think Mac raised some decent points about him.

[Rikae]

Do we know that Kit can't use her gift if modfired?

Even so, we can wait until toMorrow to lynch her... if she's gone now, though, we have no say in who she's hunting, nor do we know it. We need clarification from the NogMod, but what if he can't? What if she isn't the hunter at all? I don't like this.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Do we know that Kit can't use her gift if modfired?

Even so, we can wait until toMorrow to lynch her... if she's gone now, though, we have no say in who she's hunting, nor do we know it. We need clarification from the NogMod, but what if he can't? What if she isn't the hunter at all? I don't like this.

While it's good to consider everything, I think you're either being slightly paranoid or trying to distract us. The chances she was lying are extremely slim - you just don't do that if you have to drop out of the game. Not that I like the lack of information much, either.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

While it's good to consider everything, I think you're either being slightly paranoid or trying to distract us. The chances she was lying are extremely slim - you just don't do that if you have to drop out of the game. Not that I like the lack of information much, either.

I don't want Kit lynched toDay. I can't see it coming out well for this confused a village. Distraction? The whole thing is, actually. Now let's talk about you emerging from the cloak of cobblerishness in which you enveloped yourself yesterDay. We can be sure, at least, that if the wolves got your name last Night, they knew why. That aside, are you saying you did it for reactions? Why, then, is Wilwa suspicious for seeing your plan for what it was (and why, for that matter, am I not? I had the same reaction as Wilwa).
You're giving a stabbing-in-all-directions-hoping-something-hits-home impression which could still be called cobblerish toDay. On one hand, I approve of that strategy; testing out reactions, looking for wolfish defences. Still, there are different ways to do it, I think. I feel as though you're waiting more for consensus than for evil to show itself, which makes me uneasy.
Pitch is suspicious, but a bit too widely suspected. Have his packmates decided to sacrifice him this early? I should be writing a thesis proposal, but I think I'll have to put together an analysis of Pitch first...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't want Kit lynched toDay. I can't see it coming out well for this confused a village. Distraction? The whole thing is, actually.

I don't want her lynched today either, but it's a bit of a stretch to question if she actually is the hunter.

That aside, are you saying you did it for reactions? Why, then, is Wilwa suspicious for seeing your plan for what it was (and why, for that matter, am I not? I had the same reaction as Wilwa).

Yes and no. Fishing for reactions wasn't in my plans until I realised how easy it was in this particular situation.
The thing with wilwa is, she spoke like twice about how I put sally's cobbler point into the spotlight. If I'm innocent and someone who's behaved cobblerish goes and underlines a statement that basically says "the cobbler might send her own name tonight," I'd think "Ah-ha! You got caught! Lynch!" while wilwa hasn't really suspected me because of it. Not that I mind (because I actually am innocent ), but it looks a bit too careful to my liking.

I feel as though you're waiting more for consensus than for evil to show itself, which makes me uneasy.

What do you mean?

Originally Posted by skip spence

Actually I've a statement to make:

I am the real hunter.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Legate

That's not to say that Zil's post didn't make me paranoid about him instantly, quite the opposite. Someone who starts the Day with first post saying "both the kills have something to do with me" is either insane or weird. Of course, it can be just stating the obvious of an Ordo who is just stating facts, and in fact, that's what innocents often do, as they have no calculativeness behind their statements. They often end up lynched for that as well. Nonetheless, paranoid it makes me, but I am not going to put any weight to it, just because of what I have said just now.

I don't like this. Legate goes out of his way to say how suspicious Inzil's first post makes him, and finishes with "I suspect him but I don't really".

Originally Posted by Rikae

Did she? I didn't even see that, but if she did, it's not as if it was her idea. Mac-cobbler did that in a game I think she was in as well as several others here. Hmm.

I did that myself, in the game of epic-cobbler-fail. So it's not as if it's unusual. I'm not sure how Wilwa's defense of her vote strikes me - the tone seems innocent enough, but I can't help but wonder if Wilwa is deflecting attention from the Sally-wagon for some reason.

Legate's #174... something strikes me as 'off' there. I'm not sure what, exactly, but it's the part about "well this is why I suspected Lottie yesterday, but I don't suspect her anymore" when he doesn't go on to explain exactly why, just referencing 'her later posts'.

I've never played a game with Cailin by herself, I don't think, but as of #178 I adore her!

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, Wilwa not mentioning the fact that Sally mentioned the possible cobbler-hinting, lest the cobbler notice.
Looks very shiny toDay, but I wonder why she wouldn't do her best to get Sally lynched if she thought it was such a good case against her, in favor of trying to hide something already in the open. Hers was the first vote for Sally, after all.

Rikae raises a good point here, I think.

Re: Pitch's #183 - Why would a Nessa Wolfrunya be hinting at a Seer-Rikae in the first place? I don't understand it.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Mac worries me because he's been unnaturally passive, for him.

I don't think Mac's been passive at all, actually - in my opinion he's been one of the louder voices.

Re: Kitanna's #195 - oy gevalt.

Originally Posted by Mac

Sally was not a very likely lynch until very late, so if a wolf was on the line, I'm sure a better person to vote for could have been found.

I'm not sure I agree with you. That Sallywagon sprang up awfully late in the day, to be purely-innocent driven.

Originally Posted by Mac

Maybe I'm paranoid, but this sounds like an attempt to cover up the fact that a fellow wolf was in the running yesterDay, too.

I disagree. Eomer is rather emphatic and callous normally - I think this is probably just a playstyle reference.

Originally Posted by Boro

Pitch has a nickname that seems stuck with him forever, Mr. Agreeable, and this usually gets him suspected early and often. With the unexplained uneasy feelings and Pitch being agreeable, I saw the same thing happening yesterday. Maybe he is a wolf, but I'm not his companion.

Hum. After Mac's post calling him out for defending PItch yesterday, all this looks like to me is damage-control distancing.

Originally Posted by Legate

And, there is one thing I really don't like: I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf? But maybe I haven't seen him "normal" for such a long time that... well, never mind. I am not going to continue on that just now, I am merely wary about him.

So, wait, let me get this straight. First you're "paranoid" about Inzil, but then you won't "put any weight to it", but now you're "starting to suspect" him, but wait, no, you're just "merely wary"? Just for clarification.

Originally Posted by Skip

I've seen this sentiment elsewhere and I don't like it. Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game.

Cailin made this point softly earlier, too. I just want to go on record that I agree with the general statement.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Exactly, that made me raise my eyebrows too. Besides, Zil said that mere three minutes after Nog's post. So either he has excellent memory and quick brains, he's a super fast checker (and thinker) or he actually knew the kill before the DL. Very fishy, I think.

Hum. This is... a good point, actually. Could it be this simple?

Originally Posted by Cailin

She has definitely done little to make her look innocent.

I'm not sure about this statement (regarding Nessa). Having to 'make oneself look innocent' implies that one is not in fact innocent - otherwise why make yourself look like something that you already are? Does this mean you suspect Nessa, Cailin?

Regarding Skip and his hunter claim - I don't buy it. I think he was just looking for an epic 1000th post.

Regarding Kitanna - I'm going to voice an idea no one seems to have come up with yet - given that there are currently five baddies and two kills a night, it doesn't really seem fair to the village to handicap them due to inactivity. I personally think the fair thing to do would be to redistribute Kitanna's role. *shrug*

[Aganzir]

Hey people, skip is referring to a fake hunter reveal he once did as an ordo, so no need to get worried. At least that's what I think.

[skip spence]

haha, relax people, just a joke, I'm not the hunter.

For those who didn't play in Lommy's game a few months back, I falsely and foolishly claimed to be the hunter in that game.