WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Honestly though, why would a wolf be actively looking for an easy lynch? Far more sensible to just go with the flow and come up with a mildly credible explanation afterwards. Or baiting - and then passing it off as the smart ploy of an ordinary villager. Rikae?

I do agree Nessa looks fairly bad after Ozban's untimely end.

Baiting? Well, you would know.

Seriously, you don't think a wolf would be actively seeking reason for suspicion, but you do think a wolf would make a completely unfounded accusation that leaves her open to easy attack? Why?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And this feels a bit self-conscious, if you don't mind my saying so. As does your first post toDay.

I can see your point, but self-conscious is not a trait I usually associate with Inzilawolf. Actually, I'm feeling pretty good about Zil.

Now, here's where I'd usually make a list, and I started to, before I realized it went like this:

I trust me

I sorta trust Zil

Maybe I could see Nessa as a wolf and if I squint really hard, Valier a little bit?

Everone else is hopeless.

So, I figured it wasn't really work the space necessary to write out all the names.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Maybe I could see Nessa as a wolf and if I squint really hard, Valier a little bit?

Trouble is, I'm not that familiar with Val. I think I've only been in one game with her. I wasn't all that impressed with her vote for me, but obviously all those who joined her weren't evil.
There was this, in which she promised to "help this village rid itself of these baddies", which could have been one of those lupine assertions of innocence.

She started suspecting me here, before anyone had voted for me, but waited over an hour, until both Boro and Kath voted me before she followed suit. A wolf wanting an innocent to go along before committing?

[Kitanna]

Ahem. I don't have the time I thought I would have. I misjudged the DL times with my schedule and I now know this isn't going to work. I just don't have the time to dedicate. That said...

I'm the village hunter. I figure I should give you the choice to lynch me and suggest someone for me to kill with me. I realize this could mean two innocents die if no one agrees and I get lynched and take down an innocent. This plan has problems, but one way or another I won't be alive that much longer, so I thought it'd be worth a shot to try to get a wolf too.

I'm super sorry about this.

EDIT: I only have about nine hours to send the mod god my choice, so if I don't see a consensus I'll just pick who I think is guilty.

[Inziladun]

Hmm. Well, Kit, I hate to hear that. I don't see what you as a baddie would gain by false-revealing as the Hunter, so I'm inclined to believe you. I might say Nessa, just now. Or Val? Hearing people's suggestions could be informative in itself.

[Macalaure]

I'd like to apologise in advance. This post is bigger than I wanted it to be...


The lynch

Lottie is the first to suspect Sally a little. Jokes that she's not responsible if it turns into a bandwaggon. (Inzil criticises this later)
Pitch is annoyed that Sally suspects him for no apparent reason.
Kitanna gives some points against her.
Shasta is bothered that he can't read her.
Agan is the first to suspect her because she's too quiet. She repeats it in another post.

In her big post, Sally goes after Lommy (mildly), Skip, and Pitch.

Pitch defended Sally's quietness before, but then attacks her after her big post. What I don't like is that he continues saying that he doesn't know what to think of her. It's fishy.

Skip accuses her of twisting his words, which will later also be the reason he votes for her (he's second, Nessa leads by 4 at the time). Not a good reason, though.

Wilwa joins later with two posts. She's the first to vote for her, at a time when the vote is already plenty spread out.

Lottie just says Sally still worries her. She will give Sally a crucial third vote (though she said she crossed with Skip).

Lommy could vote for Sally, but doesn't say why. After her vote (4, putting her in the lead) she pulls a Lommy and feels like Sally is probably innocent.

Agan says she will probably vote for Sally for her cobbler comment. She will vote for her later (crossing with Lommy's)

Out of the voters, Wilwa doesn't looks that suspicious and more genuine. Skip doesn't look very bad. Lottie looks fishy. Lommy and Aganzir look bad because they put her in the lead and use bad or little reasons. In any case, though, Sally was not a very likely lynch until very late, so if a wolf was on the line, I'm sure a better person to vote for could have been found. Pitch's behaviour is a bit fishy, as I said.


The dead

Neither Ozban nor Kath were talked about much, so it's most likely they were killed to leave us no trail.

BG looks better (she suspected Ozban, and usually (though not always) you don't kill the people you suspect during the day)
Aganzir looks better (for noting that she never played with him - you don't usually kill those on Day1) (I think Lommy and somebody else also said something like this, but I can't find it anymore)

Ozban is very slightly suspicious of Inzil, Nessa, and Agan. A bit more of Sally. He votes Nessa while rhyming, not giving any more reasons. I suppose it's possible a wolf-Nessa could have thought he was the seer, but I somehow don't believe it.
Kath suspects Inzil, Legate, Wilwa.
This makes Inzil look better. There was no need for him to kill two who slightly suspected him.

Wilwa is the only one who actually goes after Kath a little. This makes her look better (see BG above).

Lommy states she never played with Ozban and is happy to play with Kath again - very unlikely she would sanction killing both of them.


The general voting and how it makes me feel

Cailín -> Aganzir (neutral)
Kitanna -> Pitch (very good, because I agree with her)
Legate -> Lottie (neutral)
Rikae -> Wilwa (neutral)
Inzil -> Nessa (not so happy)
Shasta -> Lottie (not so good)
Boro -> Inzil (bad, because I don't understand why)
Sally -> Pitch(2)
Ozban -> Nessa(2)
Wilwa -> Sally (neutral)
Pitch -> Nessa(3) (baddie-baddie-bad-bad)
Kath -> Inzil(2)
Valier -> Inzil(3) (major eyebrow-raiser)
Nessa -> Rikae (neutral)
Eomer -> Nessa(4) (not good at all - this Nessa-waggon, I don't like it)
Skip -> Sally(2) (not so good)
e-d -> Pitch (neutral)
Lottie -> Sally(3) (not good)
Lommy -> Sally(4) (not good)
Aganzir -> Sally(5) (not good)


General comments

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Greenie has posted a little more at least - mostly joining Mac in seeing cobbler hints in Agan's each and every post; which is entirely possible. I mean, Agan is daring enough to sort of hide in the open, and I remember an Agan-cobbler who talked about the cobbler all the time; but since our primary aim is not to lynch the cobbler but the wolves, I'm disinclined to vote her for the time being.

Greenie is safely under my radar at the moment, so I don't know about her, but you are definitely misinterpreting/misrepresenting what I said. I didn't see Aganzir hinting everywhere, just exactly once, and definitely not in the open, but as concealed as possible. Also, I never intended to vote Aganzir, for exactly the reason you state.

Originally Posted by Pee-Wee

now some people have nothing better to do than looking for the cobbler? I'm looking at you, Mac.

It was by no means the only thing I talked about. I'd also say it's better than the bantering or endless role/rule discussion we see so much on Day1, so come on.

I don't like it how you keep on saying I only talk about Aganzir and cobblers and that that makes you suspicious of me. The fact I suspected you is not the real reason, by any chance?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

No. It won't work - unless the Cobbler says it in the thread. So if the wolves get sally's name tonight, they can go back and realise "Hey, she said this!" I really really really don't like this point.

Interesting. When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally. I think if I had actually caught you doing this, you would not direct people's attention to somebody else doing it after "playing dumb" first. You're off the cobbler-hook for now.

Originally Posted by wilwa

It was not in the village's best interest to draw attention to this idea.

Actually it was. As Agan and I said, the cobbler needs to give a hint on the thread. Unless the cobbler already did so and got away with it, it will be pretty hard now.

Originally Posted by Legate

Someone who starts the Day with first post saying "both the kills have something to do with me" is either insane or weird.

Weird, I'd say. Why would you want to put yourself into such a situation on Day2? Inzil got some votes yesterDay, but no major cases brought forward - he was not under immediate pressure to get lynched toDay.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Ok, not sure why certain people today find the lynching of Sally an obvious blunder - we had no idea who to string up!

Maybe I'm paranoid, but this sounds like an attempt to cover up the fact that a fellow wolf was in the running yesterDay, too.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Mac worries me because he's been unnaturally passive, for him. Ordinarily, he's already called for my lynch by now.

I think the former I dealt with now. The latter will have to wait, since I don't suspect you yet.

Seeing all the Ozban-was-the-seer-and-dreamt-of-Nessa talk gives me the idea the wolves might have killed Ozban to frame Nessa and orchestrate an easy lynch for toDay.


Reading over everything, I found myself getting worried about Boro. I will have to reread his posts before I can make my mind up and give reasons.


These are all just thoughts, and some of the stated suspicions contradict. I'll sum this all up later.

-crossed since Kitanna. Oh, man...

[Inziladun]

Wow, Mac. That looks.....pretty darned logical, and well reasoned.

[Valier]

Akk the day has gotten away from me...I'm trying to find time to read everything, but thought I'd better get a few of my thoughts down.
So after forcing myself to read Mac's longggg post (sorry) I actually agree with him on Kath and Ozzy's deaths. I think they would have been easy D1 kills, not overly traceable to anyone in particular. The wolves would have to be seasoned or gungho players to start with a strategic kill on the first night. or they are just going with the flow and killing two "easier" kills. What I don't quite get is why they weren't trying harder to nab the seer? I didn't think either of them was the seer.
On the Kitanna 'sitiation, that sucks that you don't have the time to play Kit, it was nice playing in a game with you again no matter how short. I do think we should come up with a plan to use your going to the villages advantage. Hmmm I'm going to give this some thought.
As to Inzil's suggestion as to you taking me down with Kit, I would want some more evidence as to my guilt. There is no way that I think I should be the one to die. That would be a waste of this chance oportunity. I know it never helps to out and out say your Innocent, that only makes everyone suspect you more....but hey I am and I just wanna stick around and help catch some wolves

[elronds_daughter]

I'll try to give a more substantial post once I've had some sleep, but my feelings at the moment are...

Mac makes sense to me, and I can't seem him being guilty.

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I'm mildly worried about almost everyone who killed Sally. The lack of adequate reasoning bewilders me; but, then again, it may just have been Day-1 paranoia.

I still don't like the vibes I'm getting from Pitch.

Eomer worries me. There is a bit too much defensiveness...

Not really sure about other people. Legate is very analytical, but seems to me he's usually like that.

On the whole Kitanna situation...this is highly tragic. There may be tears.

Right, well. Now I've said my piece and I'm off to bed.

[skip spence]

Good Day (if you can call it good and day)

Originally Posted by Lottie

EDIT: xed with Skip

What, you confused my Avatar with Eomer's?

Speaking of the Sally bandwagon and her cobbler idea.

Originally Posted by Legate

But that said, I can see the reason of voting sally because of that. However (and once again when I am fresh, I have to take a look at the bandwaggon for her, to see how big it actually was and who was there), I am inclined to believe that some WWs might have very likely mingled with the crowd there.

Personally I missed that cobbler-hint thingie yesterDay but reading back I get the impression a few of her voters went for her because of that (Wilwa, Agan, Lommy?). Or with that as a pretext. Obviously it would be interesting to find out if there was a werewolf (or wolves?) among the crowd who was in apparent danger of getting lynched. By the crowd I mean Pitch, Lottie, Nessa and Inzil.

Here I think Nessa looks objectively the worst but I also share Mac's concern about a lupine stitch-up, what with the killing of Oz, who I was also surprised to see killed. A set-up for an easy lynch might might be the explanation. Or that Nessa is a frightened wolf. Or neither.

Most people left the voting until late. If there was a ww in that crowd, how would his/her fellows act?

Originally Posted by Legate

If you find that hint in Ozzy's post, I am going to give you a medal. (And then probably lynch you, since I can't see an innocent seeing a Seer see-saw see... something there.

I find this over-the-top defence of unfortunate Ozzy rather suspect to be honest. You wouldn't dream of killing your buddy, eh?

Originally Posted by elrond's daughter

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I've seen this sentiment elsewhere and I don't like it. Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game. If his ww behaviour was that predictable I wouldn't fear him at all. But I do. Nothing very worrying about Inzil at present though.

Today, and spontaneously, I feel good about Pitch, Rikae and Mac. They all make sense and seem helpful. Though I must question the premiss that making sense is a good sign of innocence.

Getting slightly worried about Legate. Not convinced of Nessa's good intentions either. She was a bit twitchy yesterDay. Also worried about wolves hiding in the crowd. This is such a large village one tends to forget completely about those who rarely comment (and lacks name recognition). Wouldn't be surprised to find at least two among the submarines. But it's always hard to vote for a someone you have no info on.

[Aganzir]

Hey Boro I had a dream Legate mailed someone I study with and told her I had a huge crush on her (I don't). She proceeded to text me to meet her at her favourite bar tonight. Any help?

Now, I'm going to divide people in groups based on what they said of me yesterday.

Found me evil
Mac (I was down as cobbler till he found someone better)
Cailín (voted for me randomly)

Found me good
Shasta (I'm logical and down to earth)
Lottie (I looked almost too good)
Legate ("I am not suspecting Agan - at least not because of what she said, as I believe what she said makes sense. And if she were a Wolf/Cobbler signaling to the Cobbler/Wolves, she would have actually given a more direct hint, I believe. But that is what she does not seem to do, in my opinion.")
ed (Agan doesn't look too bad to me, maybe a little shifty, but I'll have to go back and read through things again)

Didn't reach a conclusion
Pitch ("Agan is daring enough to sort of hide in the open, and I remember an Agan-cobbler who talked about the cobbler all the time; but since our primary aim is not to lynch the cobbler but the wolves, I'm disinclined to vote her for the time being. It's when she starts other people of being the cobbler that I'll get worried about her.")
wilwa (thinks I'm too obvious to be the cobbler which might be the plan)
Rikae (I could be anything)
Lommy (refused to talk about me)

Now, I'm almost certain Mac isn't a wolf. I'm aware I looked cobblerish yesterday. I don't think a wolf would be the first to point it out and suspect me because of it: even though I tend to talk about the cobbler a lot, the wolves simply couldn't be certain it wasn't me.

I'm more concerned about Legate. He seemed to pooh-pooh the confusion around me with "if she was evil she would've dropped more obvious hints!" Legate should realise no real hinting could take place yesterday anyway, so I don't get why he thinks I would've been more direct as a baddie. Basically he says I'm innocent because I didn't do something I wouldn't even have been able to do.

Pitch is interesting as well. He basically says "Agan could be the cobbler but let's not lynch her at least until she starts suspecting others of being the cobbler!" It could possibly be a wolf hinting at a suspected cobbler: "Hey there I see you, now calm down!"

Wilwa reproached me for underlining sally's cobbler thing. Before that she said I looked too obvious to be the cobbler which might be my plan. I find it interesting she never actually seemed to suspect me, though. If you're innocent and someone basically screams cobbler to you, why not act on it?

I find ed's 71 slightly fishy. It's like "I haven't seen anything particularly bad about Agan & Lottie, I should probably go back and check (if I can justify possible future suspicion against them)!"

Originally Posted by wilwa

Agan always refers to unknown people as a 'she', it's her way of protesting against our male-dominated society (at least, that's what I like to think she's doing).

Yeah, for me she is the norm.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Nessa seems off; the "oddsmaking" post just looks like trying to seem helpful. That sort of thing would be understandable in the Endgame, but really, why do that on Day 1, except to say something for the sake of not being a submarine?

I both agree and disagree. It's a good way to seem helpful, but I also think it's good to know where we stand. The wolves are certainly aware of how long they need to stay alive, and so should us.

I guess skip had a point about the seer not leaving trails that point at unknowns, but I don't like it because it can backfire so easily. Skip hasn't played that much yet, though, so I guess past experience might explain it. I'm not feeling overly good about skip though.

Okay then on to today.

I find it somewhat unnerving that within three minutes of the start of the day, Inzil comes in and draws a link between himself and both the dead. A wolf trying to say it before anyone else does?

Originally Posted by Inzil

mainly the Sally-wagon. What were you lot thinking?

That it was extremely thoughtless of sally to post about the cobbler sending her own name first. It's more likely than not that the cobbler had already thought of it, but when it was said aloud on the thread, it minimised the cobbler's risk of death at doing so. One Schuhmacher once suggested on day 1 that the cobbler might do it and he was almost lynched for it, but us wolves basically knew from then on it was him.
As for me, I had just half an hour to read the entire thread and didn't have too much time to think things through. Sally's post jumped out at me more than anyone else's (and just for the sake of it, I didn't actually suspect her for being quiet).

Originally Posted by wilwa

But then Agan went and brought a lot of attention to it, guaranteeing that the baddies saw it (so the wolves may have assumed the name they received belongs to their Cobbler).

It's idealistic to think the baddies wouldn't have seen it - they are usually the keenest readers of because they need to find the gifteds.

Originally Posted by Legate

Of course, there is the possibility that either of the kills was suggested to the Wolves by the Cobbler. However, it would be a rather weird pick, in my opinion.

I doubt it. The wolves couldn't afford to kill the one the cobbler suggested, just on the offhand chance it was the cobbler herself.

Originally Posted by Legate on the sallywagon

I am inclined to believe that some WWs might have very likely mingled with the crowd there.

I can't remember right off who voted for her, but I'm actually inclined not to think so. Would the wolves risk voting for someone who basically said "the cobbler will suggest herself first"?

Aww Kit! That's a pity because I had looked forward to playing with you.

Mac not that it probably matters but I xed since an earlier post of Lommy's, therefore not only with her but also Lottie's vote.

Originally Posted by Mac

When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally.

I didn't - because I wasn't doing "exactly that". I found it way more likely they'd try to establish connection about the same way I hinted to you, and that's the kind of comments I intended to keep an eye on. Sending one's own name is highly risky unless it's discussed on the thread before, and that's why I refused to make fun of you in one of my early posts.

This is ridiculous given our history and all, but at the moment I actually find Mac the most innocent-looking.

Originally Posted by Boro

now that I've seen how the mind of the Alpha Female Scar works.

Originally Posted by Legate on Kit

It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on.

I agree - the longer we can postpone killing the hunter, the better the chances she gets a wolf. But that of course depends on Kit.

Originally Posted by Nessa

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

What exactly is this theory you're talking about?

[Macalaure]

Boro

#11 - nothing of consequence.

#45 - wow. This looks like a real solid contribution at first glance, but it's not. All he says is that he can't read Aganzir, without giving any actual in-game points, making a comment about my drawer-mantelpiece stuff, joking about Kath, defending Pitch, and talk about how he skims the thread.

#56/#57 - joking around with Inzil and some role-talk.

#95 - four(!) paragraphs defending the role-and-rule talk against Wilwa. Defends Pitch pretty staunchly (note is awareness of and worry about a possible bandwaggon).

#103 - says he's going to vote for one of those he forgot were playing: Lommy, Manwe, Nessa, Greenie, Shasta among them. Some chatter with Lommy, too.

#112 - buries the hatchet with Wilwa.

#124 - chatters around a little. Lists Eomer and Greenie as possible votes, because they didn't catch his eye enough. Then votes Inzil for a fairly stupid reason. Inzil had no votes at this point and, I think, no major suspicions thrown his way.

All Boro actually does is defend Pitch. This means he's either a wolf and Pitch his companion, or it's the other thing. Neither explains his total lack of trying to suspect anybody for a remotely serious reason. Since I suspect Pitch quite a bit, I can't help but suspect Boro a lot, too.

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure why everyone gets surprised when Kath winds up killed. She's a smart and astute player. Always gives a thorough read through of the posts and then gives her opinions.

Ozban, no clue, played with him once before and it looks like a no-trace, but I'm always surprised at packs who go for no-trace over the seer. Maybe this pack feels like they can avoid the seer for a while by hiding in the masses?

Originally Posted by Macalaure

All Boro actually does is defend Pitch. This means he's either a wolf and Pitch his companion, or it's the other thing. Neither explains his total lack of trying to suspect anybody for a remotely serious reason. Since I suspect Pitch quite a bit, I can't help but suspect Boro a lot, too.

I work backwards as I always find it hard to come up with suspicions on Day 1. I mean, just because someone disagrees with you about roles or mechanics doesn't mean that person's a wolf. So, I try to start taking out people I do not want to get lynched and then go from there, by looking at the votes and whether I should vote for someone who's already been voted for or add another name.

Some of my banter and joking may look useless to you, but to me, I think I've already gotten a good idea on several players.

Pitch has a nickname that seems stuck with him forever, Mr. Agreeable, and this usually gets him suspected early and often. With the unexplained uneasy feelings and Pitch being agreeable, I saw the same thing happening yesterday. Maybe he is a wolf, but I'm not his companion.

Lommy yelled at me for questioning the sanity of her mind. It looked like a big-little sisterly thing to do. We were joking (at least I was, she would probably say it was a jerk thing for me to say ), but gave me a good feeling about Lommy.

Agan was up to something, but she'd be up to something no matter the role. Obvious to point out, yes, but I wanted to give more time to figure her out, now that I've seen how the mind of the Alpha Female Scar works.

I'm used to taking notice of Greenie, Eomer, and Inzil and I really wasn't yesterday. Greenie because she's completely blind-sided me as a wolf before, when I said something on how she looks so sweet and innocent, and Nog warned me of her sharp-claws and fangs side.

Eomer, much like morm, tends to be aggressive and pretty confident of his decisions.

Inzil, I've had a good read on him in the past, and he's usually one of the more "straight to business" people, but couldn't remember any of his posts other than not having a pillow.

You should know, Mac, once the information from the lynches and kills is known, I become my most annoying and biggest thorn in people's sides. I find Day 1's difficult to get through, just choose not to gripe about them that much.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Lottie just says Sally still worries her. She will give Sally a crucial third vote (though she said she crossed with Skip).

I would just like to point something out. You say that "she said she crossed". I'm sure you're not insinuating that I lied about that, but I thought I might as well point out that lying about a cross post is, in my mind (and, I think, in most everyone's) very bad form. I assure you, if I say I've cross posted, I cross posted. And I don't even mean that thing where you reply and see the post before you hit submit but don't really read it, either. Anyway, I know you didn't mean anything by it, but I didn't want anyone else to read that and assume that you thought I'd lied about it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, for the next hour or so. I'll see how much analysis I can get done in that time.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seriously, you don't think a wolf would be actively seeking reason for suspicion, but you do think a wolf would make a completely unfounded accusation that leaves her open to easy attack? Why?

Honestly, after so many werewolf games I do not believe wolves conform to a certain behavioural pattern at all. If I had been a wolf, I would probably have tried the fly under the radar approach yesterDay. After all, this village is huge. I have no idea who is in it. I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

I feel better about Mac after his long analysis, because we have clearly been thinking along the same lines.

Not sure what to do about your situation, Kitanna. I'd honestly rather not put you up for lynching because well, you are innocent. Just target whoever you think is guilty and we will have two shots at finding a wolf instead of one. We can definitely use those odds anyway.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, back... commenting on a bit of stuff, some thoughts about people, then on the Kit issue in the end...

Originally Posted by Mac

BG looks better (she suspected Ozban, and usually (though not always) you don't kill the people you suspect during the day)

This is a good point.

As for what Mac also said, there is the thing that I can imagine some people (Agan, Lommy...) not wanting to kill e.g. Ozban because they didn't get much chance to play with him before, however, one has to consider that they might be just one Wolf in the big pack and perhaps their votes would be overriden. The question is though, overriden by WHAT - since it really seems now that the only reason was no-trace kill, or possibly framing someone (or possibly killing our day by letting us wonder what the heck is this all about).

And, there is one thing I really don't like: I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf? But maybe I haven't seen him "normal" for such a long time that... well, never mind. I am not going to continue on that just now, I am merely wary about him.

Mac's posting looks reasonable, unless it is a part of some huge conspiracy of intertwined posts which are supposed to make certain people look good (Agan? Zil? Nessa?) and make others suspected.

On the superficial level, I have started to be somewhat wary also of Elronhubbard, but from the general tone of her posting it makes me think she is actually innocent. More like gut-feeling from the way she presents herself.

Now there is the time to remark that actually Mac has a point in how Boro did indeed not say much, and in fact, neither he did toDay. Maybe he wished to post something after being "rebuked", but in fact he just very shortly repeated a few things which are really of not so much consequence. Most curious.

And like I said, I don't suspect Lottie that much anymore, and her latter posting confirms this even more.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm not sure why everyone gets surprised when Kath winds up killed. She's a smart and astute player. Always gives a thorough read through of the posts and then gives her opinions.

"And others tried to figure out whether it was a compliment." Or, I mean, and other players don't? Kath is a smart player, sure, but one of many. Or are all the other smart players Wolves? And who are they in your opinion, anyway?

And now as for Kitanna - well, happens; and I have no reason to distrust her claim. But if it is so, we have to figure out what to do with it.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Ahem. I don't have the time I thought I would have. I misjudged the DL times with my schedule and I now know this isn't going to work. I just don't have the time to dedicate. That said...

I'm the village hunter. I figure I should give you the choice to lynch me and suggest someone for me to kill with me. I realize this could mean two innocents die if no one agrees and I get lynched and take down an innocent. This plan has problems, but one way or another I won't be alive that much longer, so I thought it'd be worth a shot to try to get a wolf too.

I'm super sorry about this.

EDIT: I only have about nine hours to send the mod god my choice, so if I don't see a consensus I'll just pick who I think is guilty.

Now here goes one important thing. So okay, basically the suggestion is that we "vote" - we give you a suggestion whom to kill, and then vote for you, you get lynched, and take somebody with you.

I have a few things to that - I would prefer, if it is possible (or I don't know what people think), to keep you alive and around at least for a while yet. Depends how much you can, resp. how much you cannot play, Kit. It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on. That is, if you can pop in at least once in two Days and vote or something in order not to be modfired, I would like to have you here, and perhaps at least chime in with an idea once in a while. You see, the thing is, there are already two kills by Night, I don't really fancy two deaths by Day also. Of course, if we get a Wolf, no problem, but this method of lynching you is no better than a normal lynch, in fact, it's worse (in relation to the amount of people who die, even if one of them is a Wolf).

And that said, if I were to suggest somebody to you, I also don't have much of a clear idea - as more of us don't, I believe - whatever was suggested before is possible, Valier seems a bit creepy, but otherwise I would have to have the time to go through things properly to say anything specific, there are people I am wary of otherwise, like Boro, Rikae, somewhat Zil... but I have not yet made it my focus to go through all their posts.

[Macalaure]

Boro doesn't convince me yet.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm sure you're not insinuating that I lied about that

I definitely wasn't. I guess I just worded it badly.


I need a list to get a proper grip on my thoughts.

Feel more or less good about.
Shasta
Kitanna (of course)
Wilwa
Inzil
Rikae
BG
Legate
Lommy
These fellows are off the hook for now and will be until something happens that makes me change my mind.

No idea at all.
elronds_daughter
Greenie
Mänwe
ed and Mänwe didn't say much, and Greenie really has been so far under my radar that I don't know what to think. Not good.

Not really suspicious, but not really innocent either.
Loslote
Nessa
Skip
Aganzir
Cailín
Wary of these.

A bit suspicious.
Eomer
Valier
Very wary.

Good deal of suspicion.
Pitch
Boro
Are most likely to receive my vote toDay, unless something changes my mind (which is still very possible, of course).

[Kitanna]

This is the last post I can make. I'm going to stick with who I've already chosen. If enough of you lynch me and hope I'm right, well I hope I'm right too. Or maybe you'll let me stay to keep one more innocent body around until Nog arranges my suicide because of inactivity. Either way best of luck.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

This is the last post I can make. I'm going to stick with who I've already chosen. If enough of you lynch me and hope I'm right, well I hope I'm right too. Or maybe you'll let me stay to keep one more innocent body around until Nog arranges my suicide because of inactivity. Either way best of luck.

I'm sorry you have to leave as I enjoyed your contribution. I find no reason to not believe you and hope you can leave with a bang and a dead wolf.

However, I don't like the idea of just lynching Kit and let her do her thing. Even though I think this statistically favours the village over the wolves (the latter lose their influence over the voting) it seems like a Day wasted and today's game ruined.

This is a question to Nogrod. If Kit is "modfired" will she simply disappear from the game of can she still perform her function as a hunter? Maybe just removing her is the best solution in either case?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by skip spence

This is a question to Nogrod. If Kit is "modfired" will she simply disappear from the game of can she still perform her function as a hunter? Maybe just removing her is the best solution in either case?

Anyone who doesn't post & vote in two Days in a row is removed by modfire after the fact. That is the only rule on modfires. (Although there sure is a principle of charity involved if someone fex. posts a lot and is actively in the game but because of force majeure -reasons or unhappy coincidences is unable to vote in two Days in a row)

Another way to exit the game without getting lynched or killed during the Night is to tell the mod one is withdrawing from the game. In that situation the player is removed in the next suitable narration.

Kit told me she would have to withdraw from the game, but I'll try to get a confirmation from her on the issue of which exact way she'd want to go.


ADD: She is in the game toDay anyway.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

...she is in the game toDay anyway.

Okay. So if we don't lynch her today, and she sticks to her word, she'll get mod-fired and quietly leaves the game two Days from now. And if we lynch her today she'll take one player with her, for good or bad. Like a said before, think I'd prefer the former alternative. More fun if anything else.

Should return soonish with some thought on the voting toDay and yesterDay.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back again, few comments on people in order of appearance...

Nessa is at least not very contributive. And the random post about Cobbler (209) was in relation to what exactly?

And there is one person I became worried of when I saw the opening of his post toDay: Skip. And that made me recall that his posts close to the end of yesterDay seemed in some way awkward to me too. All the general talk of the "crowd", basically listing a list of names from whom people could pick to lynch someone, supporting that way general suspicion would be totally Wolvish thing to do. If there is anything that does not fit into the "I will suspect the people whom majority might suspect and go with the flow" scheme, it is funnily enough his suspicion of me.

But just looking at the post overall, from the greeting (which was the first thing that caught my attention) through what I have mentioned above:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Good Day (if you can call it good and day)
(...)
Personally I missed that cobbler-hint thingie yesterDay but reading back I get the impression a few of her voters went for her because of that (Wilwa, Agan, Lommy?). Or with that as a pretext. Obviously it would be interesting to find out if there was a werewolf (or wolves?) among the crowd who was in apparent danger of getting lynched. By the crowd I mean Pitch, Lottie, Nessa and Inzil.

Here I think Nessa looks objectively the worst but I also share Mac's concern about a lupine stitch-up, what with the killing of Oz, who I was also surprised to see killed. A set-up for an easy lynch might might be the explanation. Or that Nessa is a frightened wolf. Or neither.
(...)
Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game. If his ww behaviour was that predictable I wouldn't fear him at all. But I do. Nothing very worrying about Inzil at present though.

Today, and spontaneously, I feel good about Pitch, Rikae and Mac. They all make sense and seem helpful. Though I must question the premiss that making sense is a good sign of innocence.

Getting slightly worried about Legate. Not convinced of Nessa's good intentions either. She was a bit twitchy yesterDay. Also worried about wolves hiding in the crowd. This is such a large village one tends to forget completely about those who rarely comment (and lacks name recognition). Wouldn't be surprised to find at least two among the submarines. But it's always hard to vote for a someone you have no info on.

For instance: The words about Inzil are again the "I don't suspect him - NOW - but he IS dangerous, YOU should lynch him".

And the end - the last four sentences about the Wolves hiding in the crowd - sounds so disgustingly alibistic...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm more concerned about Legate. He seemed to pooh-pooh the confusion around me with "if she was evil she would've dropped more obvious hints!" Legate should realise no real hinting could take place yesterday anyway, so I don't get why he thinks I would've been more direct as a baddie. Basically he says I'm innocent because I didn't do something I wouldn't even have been able to do.

"No real hinting"? Why not? "More direct"? Oh yes, you could have been: you could have done the thing you later rebuked Sally for. That's EXACTLY what I had in mind when saying that you did not drop any direct hint. For that matter, I also didn't say I think you are innocent. It did not make me suspect you, and that's a huge difference, as you can surely understand.

Originally Posted by Agan

I can't remember right off who voted for her, but I'm actually inclined not to think so. Would the wolves risk voting for someone who basically said "the cobbler will suggest herself first"?

Good question. You know, your sharp observations in this post about what the Wolves would think about the Cobbler and so on are actually so sharp that I am starting to think that you have been thinking about it a great deal yourself in your quest to find an ally.

And now the last thing, speaking of the Hunter: so it seems that Kit cannot come back after all? Like, not at all?

I hope she could pop up - and basically what I said above would be the best solution... But if not, then perhaps it will be the best to just leave it be and eventually have her modfired. Because it does not make any difference, in that case, whether we lynch her or let her modfired - or even worse, actually, if we don't know whom she hunts, lynching her will be like choosing a totally random kill.

EDIT: x-ed since Nogrod. NOW WHAT THE???? SKIP????

[Aganzir]

Okie dokie here's a list I've been working on for ages.

GUILTY
skip. He just rings false to me (seer shouldn't leave false trails; if we lynch the quiet the wolves can escape the noose by being loud). Then again, I'm starting to think I have a tendency to always suspect him... He voted for sally, but hadn't noticed her cobbler suggestion. And I think his hunter joke was exactly that - a joke - and we can't draw any conclusions about his role from it. I'll be watching him.

ed. I've never played with her before and don't know what to expect, but I don't like her #71. She's throwing in lots of names and agreeing with people (okay mainly Legate), but her attitude seems to be that of "I don't suspect these people (whom others have already suspected) yet but if and when I want to go after one of them, here's to show I already thought about them on day 1!" Today she's mildly worried about us who voted for sally because of lack of adequate reasoning. Pray tell, what do you consider adequate reasoning?

wilwa. The tone of her posts is pretty innocent, but that doesn't tell anything about her role because she just is sweet that way. I'm not convinced she would've voted for sally if a wolf, but I still think her reaction to my posts was somewhat fishy. Not voting for her today though.

Rikae. Yesterday, she said I could be anything. Today, I'm leaning towards the cobbler. The wolves probably know by now it's not me, so it would be very convenient for them to encourage the village to lynch me as the cobbler. Not voting for her either because I haven't gone through her posts properly and because suspecting her has ended badly before, but I'm wary of her.

Green. I found her pretty okay (although too quiet) until she started twisting my words and basically accusing me of lying about why an evil me wouldn't do something that I didn't do. I don't care if she says it was a joke - if she phrases it so that someone might easily jump on it, it looks evil.

INNOCENT
Mac. I don't think a wolf would bring out points against a possible cobbler (me) so early on, even to say "I saw your hint but won't do anything to you, just be nice now ok." Plus he's being reasonable. In spite of this all, I'm deeply amused he tops my innocent list.
Lommy. Has good points and seems generally very innocent.
Caílin. She voted for me yesterday but didn't say anything about me looking like the cobbler. My reason says a wolf wouldn't take the risk. Apart from that, she's being delightfully Cailínish which doesn't unfortunately tell us anything about her role.
Shasta. Comes across as genuine and doesn't look like he was trying to twist anything I say to suit any darker purposes.
Eomer. I can hardly ever read him, but I'm not overly worried about him at the moment.
Lottie. I'm okay with her for now.

EITHER
Legate. I still feel uneasy about him, but I'm not sure he would've chosen Ozban as his first kill. And I think his reaction to skip's hunter joke was pretty innocent. My assumption is that no one would lie about their role if they're dropping out of the game. A double reveal would have meant that either Kit or skip had been lying... and although there's a chance he's a wolf who thought Kit was the cobbler or the other way round, I find it unlikely. That would be some extremely good acting on Legate's part - it took him 14 minutes to write a long-ish post which, I think, isn't enough for a non-native speaker to successfully feign surprise.
Pitch. Wishy-washy reaction to my cobbler play yesterday. He's kind of all over the place in the sense that he talks about everybody and has something to say on everything. He's been getting a lot of attention and I'm simply too lazy to go through him myself at the moment.
Nessa. To be honest, I can't see what makes her so suspicious.
Inzil. There are a couple of things I don't like about him: his "Nessa seems off, why do maths on day 1?" vote, his quickness to draw a connection between himself and the dead, and the half-accusatory tone of "You sally-voters, what were you thinking!?" Apart from that, I'm not very concerned about him though.
Boro. Speaking a lot without saying much brings to mind a Cobblemir I seem to remember. He's up to something, only I'm not sure what. The thing is, I agree with him about role discussion not being a waste of time, but he was doing it really elaborately. I'm wavering on what to think of his "damage control defense" of Pitch. The Boro I know has no problem whatsoever throwing his fellows under the bus, but in this game the wolves have such an advantage while the four of them are still alive that I wouldn't put it past him to defend a fellow.
BG. I don't particularly like her style (pops in, votes and leaves without saying much) but that indicates neither guilt nor innocence.
Mänwe. Never played with him before and don't know what to expect. I know he had a reason to be absent on day 1, but I still find it amusing how he targets on the quiet players and says he'll refrain from commenting on us others for now.
Valier. As enigmatic as ever.

**

My non-Downer friend (who doesn't know my role) is lying on the floor next to my chair and trying to distract me: "Macalaure is a wolf. I know he is. I must be the seer. I hope the wolves don't come and eat me tonight. Do you suspect Macalaure? Let's lynch Macalaure! Don't write that!"

[Mänwe]

This was always going to be the outcome; our numbers large enough for the evil amongst us to strike with impunity- such is the wickedness of Melkor- during these early days of torment. For this is the torment he seeks in his discord, to have in His creation, creation marred with self preservation.

And so two unspoken spirits are extinguished and one of ours who was among the most talkative is lynched. Posts of no substance and posts of substance are marked as being both innocent and evil; the same can be said of those who speak profusely and those who do not, heh none of us can win. Shall we now see two well spoken spirits killed during Melkor’s forced sleep and one unspoken spirit lynched?

Much is said of ones innocence that lies low, so I would have those who have spoken little (and who had offered no reason for their absence) step forward in this darkness, identify themselves because I can barely see and explain themselves. Those who have appeared to me as quite quiet and who have three or less posts in our first day of incarceration (and who survived the night’s carnage) are as I see it, the following.

[accountable, just]Cailín; #10(1i) – informs us of a flight, will be interesting to see how vocal she is today after posts #186(2i) and #205(2ii) appear to be reactionary to the nights events.

[unaccountable!]Blind Guardian; #47(1i) offers no reason for his absence and says due to this absence he will not vote. While Day 2, #181(2i) #187(2ii) expresses delight at survival and math reasoning for the ‘easy lynch’.

[unaccountable]A Little Green; #73(1i) a late Day 1 post (and nothing since) and casts a few nonchalant suspicions on Agan and Rikae.

[unaccountable]elronds_daughter; #71(1i) a late post to say driving a result of inactivity and appears content to just follow the flow of previous chatter. #152(1ii) jumps in with a blind (bandwagon) vote seemingly just conforming. #200(2i), ah back again to say a few odd bits that again to me appear to conform. Will look out for the more substantial post. Perhaps all a little too obvious.

I’ll hold back comments on other players for the time being.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

[unaccountable!]Blind Guardian; #47(1i) offers no reason for his absence and says due to this absence he will not vote. While Day 2, #181(2i) #187(2ii) expresses delight at survival and math reasoning for the ‘easy lynch’.

Sorry, I didn't realize I didn't explain myself. It was a very busy day here. I had a lot of scrubbing to do and still have more to do. Had to take the dog for a walk, went shopping waaayyyy in Phoenix. Later today I have to paint a ceiling and finish some walls and finish cleaning those shelves.

I was just putting in my point of view, which if you have played with me before, gets me lynched, 'cause everything I say sounds insane. Maybe I am crazy a little. And yes it is a miracle at surviving day 1, for me.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I've been sick and sharing computer with the totally not caught up with stuff Greenie, so my participation has been and will be quite diminished toDay... my apologies. Trying to do my best with the amount of concentration and time I have right now.

Originally Posted by Mac

Excellent memory and quick brains? No offense to Inzil, but remembering who you were after and who was after you one Day ago is really not that much of a feat.

I believe he remembered who agreed with him and who he voted. Not that it's such a big thing to remember, but honestly, I necessarily wouldn't and it takes some quick thinking to connect the facts together and to the dead people in three minutes (including typing).

Agan is annoying me slightly, so I'm starting to trust her. She tends to take that nitpicky Lobelia tone when she's innocent. This, however, doesn't make me agree with her. I don't really know what she achieved by analysing everybody's actions towards herself. (But I guess analysing that is better than analysing nothing. )

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish
Mac - looks like innocent Mac as opposed to guilty Mac. I like his points although I don't agree with all of them. Have to add, though, that at times he's made me a bit wary toDay (compared to looking very innocent yesterDay) so I'm not totally sure.
Kitanna - obviously.
Rikae - has not been so light cavalry-ish toDay, so I think I can read her better and I'm not very worried atm.
Boro - like I said yesterDay, looks more like innocent Boro to me. A pity he doesn't seem as sincere and in your face as he did yesterDay but I'm not still having doubts yet.
Greenie - I think I can recognise the busy ordo Greenie and here we have her.

In between
Eomer - under my radar, like I've said before. I feel like I can't read him.
Shasta - seems more elusive and joke-y than usual which is weird. Reminds me of early wolf-Shastas, but recently he's been much smoother as a wolf (remembering especially that one horrid game which he won). So, I'm unsure.
Lottie - I feel like I should have an opinion on her but I really don't. People seem very opinionated about her but she's mostly under my radar or in the contradictory books. Another whose posts I'd like to check when I have time.
Pitch - a lot the same as Lottie. Rather edgy but somehow honest all the same. Difficult.
BG - confusing.
Mänwë - even more confusing.
Valier - won't judge before I see more. No alarm bells yet, though.
Legate - don't even pretend I can read him anymore. Not too worrying, whatsoever.
Cailín - posts a lot but leaves a somehow impersonal impression. Kind of reserved but somehow warm, difficult to figure out.
Agan - leaning innocent with the abrasive behaviour but not sure. Hasn't picked on me yet.

Suspicious-ish
Ed - there's something vaguely fishy in her tone, she rubs me the wrong way. Mostly under the radar though. Would like to check her posts but doesn't look like I'd have the time toDay.
Nessa - totally submarine-ish, could possibly be a wolf based on Ozban's death and wasn't exactly convincing yesterDay either. Lynching her would feel rather knee-jerk, though.
Wilwa - is being incredibly defensive and talking weird stuff. Like I said yesterDay, might be just some RL stress but today she's been giving me plain bad vibes.
Zil - his first post toDay was incredibly fishy and nothing can change that. Rather annoying/confusing though that he looked so innocent to me yesterDay.
Skip - slightly fishy toDay, I don't like his joking tone. But then again, he looked fishy to me in my own game where I certainly knew he was an ordo! Unsure, slightly leaning guilty.


edit: xed with Val

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hum. I don't like Lottie's vote. At all.

++Lottie

And in any case there doesn't seem to be as much support for a Legate lynch as I'd hoped for, so.

[Cailín]

I just read over Loslote's posts and I do not like what I see. She seems very unsure of herself (fair enough - most of us are), but her apologetic behaviour and her unwillingness to take responsibility for her choices seem particularly shady. Also, her vote for Kitanna, leaving judgment in the hands of one who has admitted that she can hardly be involved, rather than trusting to her own.

I am also okay lynching Nessa and clear up some confusion there. I have not had time to look at ED's posts and feel lynching her would be a stab in the dark that would tell us nothing.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I believe he remembered who agreed with him and who he voted. Not that it's such a big thing to remember, but honestly, I necessarily wouldn't and it takes some quick thinking to connect the facts together and to the dead people in three minutes (including typing).

That is true, on the other hand, maybe that's the instinct of an inspector, to quickly put up facts together (surprised you did not mention that).

Now, a list - more for myself than for anybody else, to see all the names in front of me at the same moment and to somewhat summarise what exactly I think of everybody - and whom could I vote:

Eomer - I am a bit worried about him from some things he says, but I don't think I'd have reason to vote him now
L. Ron Hubbard - submarine indeed, though I would prefer voting for somebody I suspect at least a bit to a random shot, even if at a sumbarine
Macalaure - looks good-ish enough to me
Shastanis Althreduin - he actually seems reasonable, I quite like him this far
Loslote - I am actually thinking quite well of her by now
Kitanna - a Hunter. At least until somebody else starts claiming otherwise. *eyes Skip*
wilwarin538 - flip-floppy about her, but at least for certain not going to vote her at least this far
Nessa Telrunya - a thing or two raised eyebrows, I'm wondering about the possible implications of the Night kills, but hard to say
Pitchwife - not much of an idea, not really suspicious
Inziladun - wary of, but not really strongly suspecting him
Rikae - creeps me out, like I said, she is hard to read in general
Boromir88 - unsure about, watching
A Little Green - I have just very little idea about her, need to start pay more attention to her. There's just too many people and she has not been posting so much.
Blind Guardian - little to go with...
Skip Spence - suspicious, but the Hunter-joke, like I said, makes me think a Wolf would not pull that off. I am sort of debating with myself whether I should not overcome this feeling and vote him anyway, the question is - would a Skipwolf be so careless/bold to post something like that even as a Wolf?
Mänwe - nice to see him around, this far did not have much chance to participate, setting him aside for now, shall evaluate on him later once there's more
Valier - there is something fishy about her, I am not sure
Thinlómien - I am actually rather suspicious of her this time, interestingly. She posts in a way that seems unusual in comparison to her innocent self.
Aganzir - it's Agan. Mind of a Wolf, for sure. Whether she is an actual Wolf is another thing. Watching her.
Caílin - could be either

Actually, this list is not very helpful. In fact, it is not helpful at all. I have very, very hazy idea about most of people. I would hope it to change soon. Anyway, there are some people from whom I will probably not select, than I can think about the others...

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Honestly, after so many werewolf games I do not believe wolves conform to a certain behavioural pattern at all. If I had been a wolf, I would probably have tried the fly under the radar approach yesterDay. After all, this village is huge. I have no idea who is in it. I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

Be that as it may (and you're right on on count: as a wolf I would be bold enough to make unfounded accusations and "stir the pot" if I felt so inclined), you began all this by implying that a Nessa-wolf would certainly not have dared to say "she knows something we don't", this sort of comment being somehow so risky, so assertive that no wolf would dare try to get suspicion going in such a bold way. Balderdash.

[Rikae]

Regarding Kit, I'd prefer it if we had more time to choose her kill, if we have to do so. Even after two days, when she is scheduled to be modfired, we'll have more information to go on. Trouble is, it would require her to be around to change her kill at that time according to the village, unless she and Nog are willing to have her kill determined by a vote of the village in two days. It would also require Kit to vote toDay to buy time.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Be that as it may (and you're right on on count: as a wolf I would be bold enough to make unfounded accusations and "stir the pot" if I felt so inclined), you began all this by implying that a Nessa-wolf would certainly not have dared to say "she knows something we don't", this sort of comment being somehow so risky, so assertive that no wolf would dare try to get suspicion going in such a bold way. Balderdash.

Aye, well, I meant to imply no such thing - I just wanted to say that on Day 1 there is no sense to go looking for an easy lynch, because they usually tend to present themselves - but we all know one needs to be fairly bold to go against you.

[Cailín]

I wanted to look into Loslote and Nessa, because I seem to be swayed by the suspicion against them. I also decided - based on a gut feeling - to analyse Wilwarin and elronds_daughter even though I had taken little note of them before.

So far I only had time for Wilwarin and Nessa. Don't expect these analyses to be like a glass of clear, cool water, though, because my thoughts are seldom quite as organised as some of the die-hards here.

Wilwarin

#77 seems offended by the discussion about roles and behaviour. Tone is somewhat patronizing, which I have rarely seen from Wilwa before. Antagonises more people by “refusing to jump on the Pitch wagon”.
She lists some initial thoughts on people, mostly based on past performance and behavior. Who are Cupcake and Pop?

#83 argues with Rikae, which prompts a vote from Rikae’s end.

#88 agrees with Legate that Loslote’s post looks somewhat suspicious. Confusion about a possible Cobbler hint from Aganzir detected by Legate.

#89 Clarifies her fear of a Pitch wagon

#93 Defends herself against Pitch’s accusations. Says she does not suspect Legate or Loslote yet, though concedes there are some legitimate reasons to suspect Lottie.

#106 Defends herself again, this time against Boro, who was a staunch defender of the roles and rules discussion. Her tone is milder now.

#116 Ah, Cupcake refers to Sally. Wilwarin does not like her post, mainly because of the whole Cobbler thing (she does not mention this explicitly in an attempt to conceal from the Cobbler / Wolves what she obviously thinks is a good idea). She defends Skip and questions Sally’s assessment of Kitanna.

#123 suspects Sally (and has various reasonable arguments for Day 1) and thinks she will vote for her today.

#129 votes for Sally.

#134 again defends herself against Kath, who misrepresented Wilwa’s initial post in her analysis. Defends herself against accusations of defensiveness (always counterproductive)

#160 does not like Aganzir drawing attention to Sally’s point about the Cobbler (which was also Wilwa’s main reason for voting Sally) and suspects Aganzir might not have the village’s best interest at heart.

Today

#171 defends her decision to vote for Sally again referring to the Cobbler incident.

Wilwarin has been quite consistent so far. She does seem fairly defensive – not just of herself but of other people as well – and such behavior always leads to discomfort. However, she was one of the few people yesterday who bothered to build a case – however wrong it may have been – against someone and stated her reasons for her vote as clearly and lucidly as she thought advisable. At the moment I doubt she is evil.

Nessa

#28 starts with some maths. I won’t argue with that.

#55 Confused about Rikae’s suspicion of Pitchwife. Suggests Rikae “seems to know something we don’t”

#64 explains her lack of participation

#147 votes Rikae. Claims her post was misinterpreted and she had meant to accuse Rikae, not out her as a possible Seer. Says Rikae has been jumpy. Unsure about the Legate-is-the-Cobbler debate and the suspicion against Sally.

Today

#211 votes Rikae again and does not think she will be back.

There is really so very little to go on here. Post #55 looks weird, but could just be carelessly phrased. She hardly comments on any of the other players. I have never played with Nessa before, so I cannot comment on her style (to me it looks like she may be relatively new to the game). She has definitely done little to make her look innocent.

[Inziladun]

I would prefer to keep Kit as a known innocent and a thorn in the side of the wolves, but her words seem to indicate she won't be able to do anything more in the game, be it voting, or just observing the thread in order to decide who she should hunt. Her most recent post said it was "the last post she can make", not specifying that only went for toDay, or the rest of the game. She seems convinced she's going to be modfired, and wants to instead go out using her gift.
So, if she's merely modfired, we don't risk innocent blood being spilled with her, but her gift will be wasted. There are five baddies, including the Cobbler. That's a decent chance of her getting one of them.
As far as wolves go, I'm still concerned about Val, Nessa, and maybe Pitch. I think Mac raised some decent points about him.

[Rikae]

Do we know that Kit can't use her gift if modfired?

Even so, we can wait until toMorrow to lynch her... if she's gone now, though, we have no say in who she's hunting, nor do we know it. We need clarification from the NogMod, but what if he can't? What if she isn't the hunter at all? I don't like this.