WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seriously, you don't think a wolf would be actively seeking reason for suspicion, but you do think a wolf would make a completely unfounded accusation that leaves her open to easy attack? Why?

Honestly, after so many werewolf games I do not believe wolves conform to a certain behavioural pattern at all. If I had been a wolf, I would probably have tried the fly under the radar approach yesterDay. After all, this village is huge. I have no idea who is in it. I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

I feel better about Mac after his long analysis, because we have clearly been thinking along the same lines.

Not sure what to do about your situation, Kitanna. I'd honestly rather not put you up for lynching because well, you are innocent. Just target whoever you think is guilty and we will have two shots at finding a wolf instead of one. We can definitely use those odds anyway.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, back... commenting on a bit of stuff, some thoughts about people, then on the Kit issue in the end...

Originally Posted by Mac

BG looks better (she suspected Ozban, and usually (though not always) you don't kill the people you suspect during the day)

This is a good point.

As for what Mac also said, there is the thing that I can imagine some people (Agan, Lommy...) not wanting to kill e.g. Ozban because they didn't get much chance to play with him before, however, one has to consider that they might be just one Wolf in the big pack and perhaps their votes would be overriden. The question is though, overriden by WHAT - since it really seems now that the only reason was no-trace kill, or possibly framing someone (or possibly killing our day by letting us wonder what the heck is this all about).

And, there is one thing I really don't like: I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf? But maybe I haven't seen him "normal" for such a long time that... well, never mind. I am not going to continue on that just now, I am merely wary about him.

Mac's posting looks reasonable, unless it is a part of some huge conspiracy of intertwined posts which are supposed to make certain people look good (Agan? Zil? Nessa?) and make others suspected.

On the superficial level, I have started to be somewhat wary also of Elronhubbard, but from the general tone of her posting it makes me think she is actually innocent. More like gut-feeling from the way she presents herself.

Now there is the time to remark that actually Mac has a point in how Boro did indeed not say much, and in fact, neither he did toDay. Maybe he wished to post something after being "rebuked", but in fact he just very shortly repeated a few things which are really of not so much consequence. Most curious.

And like I said, I don't suspect Lottie that much anymore, and her latter posting confirms this even more.

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm not sure why everyone gets surprised when Kath winds up killed. She's a smart and astute player. Always gives a thorough read through of the posts and then gives her opinions.

"And others tried to figure out whether it was a compliment." Or, I mean, and other players don't? Kath is a smart player, sure, but one of many. Or are all the other smart players Wolves? And who are they in your opinion, anyway?

And now as for Kitanna - well, happens; and I have no reason to distrust her claim. But if it is so, we have to figure out what to do with it.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Ahem. I don't have the time I thought I would have. I misjudged the DL times with my schedule and I now know this isn't going to work. I just don't have the time to dedicate. That said...

I'm the village hunter. I figure I should give you the choice to lynch me and suggest someone for me to kill with me. I realize this could mean two innocents die if no one agrees and I get lynched and take down an innocent. This plan has problems, but one way or another I won't be alive that much longer, so I thought it'd be worth a shot to try to get a wolf too.

I'm super sorry about this.

EDIT: I only have about nine hours to send the mod god my choice, so if I don't see a consensus I'll just pick who I think is guilty.

Now here goes one important thing. So okay, basically the suggestion is that we "vote" - we give you a suggestion whom to kill, and then vote for you, you get lynched, and take somebody with you.

I have a few things to that - I would prefer, if it is possible (or I don't know what people think), to keep you alive and around at least for a while yet. Depends how much you can, resp. how much you cannot play, Kit. It is somehow dumb, but if it's possible, I would most prefer the idea of keeping you around as a "known innocent", and kill you only at some point when you really cannot go on. That is, if you can pop in at least once in two Days and vote or something in order not to be modfired, I would like to have you here, and perhaps at least chime in with an idea once in a while. You see, the thing is, there are already two kills by Night, I don't really fancy two deaths by Day also. Of course, if we get a Wolf, no problem, but this method of lynching you is no better than a normal lynch, in fact, it's worse (in relation to the amount of people who die, even if one of them is a Wolf).

And that said, if I were to suggest somebody to you, I also don't have much of a clear idea - as more of us don't, I believe - whatever was suggested before is possible, Valier seems a bit creepy, but otherwise I would have to have the time to go through things properly to say anything specific, there are people I am wary of otherwise, like Boro, Rikae, somewhat Zil... but I have not yet made it my focus to go through all their posts.

[Macalaure]

Boro doesn't convince me yet.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm sure you're not insinuating that I lied about that

I definitely wasn't. I guess I just worded it badly.


I need a list to get a proper grip on my thoughts.

Feel more or less good about.
Shasta
Kitanna (of course)
Wilwa
Inzil
Rikae
BG
Legate
Lommy
These fellows are off the hook for now and will be until something happens that makes me change my mind.

No idea at all.
elronds_daughter
Greenie
Mänwe
ed and Mänwe didn't say much, and Greenie really has been so far under my radar that I don't know what to think. Not good.

Not really suspicious, but not really innocent either.
Loslote
Nessa
Skip
Aganzir
Cailín
Wary of these.

A bit suspicious.
Eomer
Valier
Very wary.

Good deal of suspicion.
Pitch
Boro
Are most likely to receive my vote toDay, unless something changes my mind (which is still very possible, of course).

[Kitanna]

This is the last post I can make. I'm going to stick with who I've already chosen. If enough of you lynch me and hope I'm right, well I hope I'm right too. Or maybe you'll let me stay to keep one more innocent body around until Nog arranges my suicide because of inactivity. Either way best of luck.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm not so sure about the cobbler-wolf hinting theory. It was way to conspicuous to be something planned, not to mention the idea had already been brought up.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

This is the last post I can make. I'm going to stick with who I've already chosen. If enough of you lynch me and hope I'm right, well I hope I'm right too. Or maybe you'll let me stay to keep one more innocent body around until Nog arranges my suicide because of inactivity. Either way best of luck.

I'm sorry you have to leave as I enjoyed your contribution. I find no reason to not believe you and hope you can leave with a bang and a dead wolf.

However, I don't like the idea of just lynching Kit and let her do her thing. Even though I think this statistically favours the village over the wolves (the latter lose their influence over the voting) it seems like a Day wasted and today's game ruined.

This is a question to Nogrod. If Kit is "modfired" will she simply disappear from the game of can she still perform her function as a hunter? Maybe just removing her is the best solution in either case?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by skip spence

This is a question to Nogrod. If Kit is "modfired" will she simply disappear from the game of can she still perform her function as a hunter? Maybe just removing her is the best solution in either case?

Anyone who doesn't post & vote in two Days in a row is removed by modfire after the fact. That is the only rule on modfires. (Although there sure is a principle of charity involved if someone fex. posts a lot and is actively in the game but because of force majeure -reasons or unhappy coincidences is unable to vote in two Days in a row)

Another way to exit the game without getting lynched or killed during the Night is to tell the mod one is withdrawing from the game. In that situation the player is removed in the next suitable narration.

Kit told me she would have to withdraw from the game, but I'll try to get a confirmation from her on the issue of which exact way she'd want to go.


ADD: She is in the game toDay anyway.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

...she is in the game toDay anyway.

Okay. So if we don't lynch her today, and she sticks to her word, she'll get mod-fired and quietly leaves the game two Days from now. And if we lynch her today she'll take one player with her, for good or bad. Like a said before, think I'd prefer the former alternative. More fun if anything else.

Should return soonish with some thought on the voting toDay and yesterDay.

[skip spence]

Actually I've a statement to make:

I am the real hunter.










EDIT: How's that for post 1000?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back again, few comments on people in order of appearance...

Nessa is at least not very contributive. And the random post about Cobbler (209) was in relation to what exactly?

And there is one person I became worried of when I saw the opening of his post toDay: Skip. And that made me recall that his posts close to the end of yesterDay seemed in some way awkward to me too. All the general talk of the "crowd", basically listing a list of names from whom people could pick to lynch someone, supporting that way general suspicion would be totally Wolvish thing to do. If there is anything that does not fit into the "I will suspect the people whom majority might suspect and go with the flow" scheme, it is funnily enough his suspicion of me.

But just looking at the post overall, from the greeting (which was the first thing that caught my attention) through what I have mentioned above:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Good Day (if you can call it good and day)
(...)
Personally I missed that cobbler-hint thingie yesterDay but reading back I get the impression a few of her voters went for her because of that (Wilwa, Agan, Lommy?). Or with that as a pretext. Obviously it would be interesting to find out if there was a werewolf (or wolves?) among the crowd who was in apparent danger of getting lynched. By the crowd I mean Pitch, Lottie, Nessa and Inzil.

Here I think Nessa looks objectively the worst but I also share Mac's concern about a lupine stitch-up, what with the killing of Oz, who I was also surprised to see killed. A set-up for an easy lynch might might be the explanation. Or that Nessa is a frightened wolf. Or neither.
(...)
Inzil is shrewd and could of course alter his playing style to suit a particular game. If his ww behaviour was that predictable I wouldn't fear him at all. But I do. Nothing very worrying about Inzil at present though.

Today, and spontaneously, I feel good about Pitch, Rikae and Mac. They all make sense and seem helpful. Though I must question the premiss that making sense is a good sign of innocence.

Getting slightly worried about Legate. Not convinced of Nessa's good intentions either. She was a bit twitchy yesterDay. Also worried about wolves hiding in the crowd. This is such a large village one tends to forget completely about those who rarely comment (and lacks name recognition). Wouldn't be surprised to find at least two among the submarines. But it's always hard to vote for a someone you have no info on.

For instance: The words about Inzil are again the "I don't suspect him - NOW - but he IS dangerous, YOU should lynch him".

And the end - the last four sentences about the Wolves hiding in the crowd - sounds so disgustingly alibistic...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm more concerned about Legate. He seemed to pooh-pooh the confusion around me with "if she was evil she would've dropped more obvious hints!" Legate should realise no real hinting could take place yesterday anyway, so I don't get why he thinks I would've been more direct as a baddie. Basically he says I'm innocent because I didn't do something I wouldn't even have been able to do.

"No real hinting"? Why not? "More direct"? Oh yes, you could have been: you could have done the thing you later rebuked Sally for. That's EXACTLY what I had in mind when saying that you did not drop any direct hint. For that matter, I also didn't say I think you are innocent. It did not make me suspect you, and that's a huge difference, as you can surely understand.

Originally Posted by Agan

I can't remember right off who voted for her, but I'm actually inclined not to think so. Would the wolves risk voting for someone who basically said "the cobbler will suggest herself first"?

Good question. You know, your sharp observations in this post about what the Wolves would think about the Cobbler and so on are actually so sharp that I am starting to think that you have been thinking about it a great deal yourself in your quest to find an ally.

And now the last thing, speaking of the Hunter: so it seems that Kit cannot come back after all? Like, not at all?

I hope she could pop up - and basically what I said above would be the best solution... But if not, then perhaps it will be the best to just leave it be and eventually have her modfired. Because it does not make any difference, in that case, whether we lynch her or let her modfired - or even worse, actually, if we don't know whom she hunts, lynching her will be like choosing a totally random kill.

EDIT: x-ed since Nogrod. NOW WHAT THE???? SKIP????

[Aganzir]

Okie dokie here's a list I've been working on for ages.

GUILTY
skip. He just rings false to me (seer shouldn't leave false trails; if we lynch the quiet the wolves can escape the noose by being loud). Then again, I'm starting to think I have a tendency to always suspect him... He voted for sally, but hadn't noticed her cobbler suggestion. And I think his hunter joke was exactly that - a joke - and we can't draw any conclusions about his role from it. I'll be watching him.

ed. I've never played with her before and don't know what to expect, but I don't like her #71. She's throwing in lots of names and agreeing with people (okay mainly Legate), but her attitude seems to be that of "I don't suspect these people (whom others have already suspected) yet but if and when I want to go after one of them, here's to show I already thought about them on day 1!" Today she's mildly worried about us who voted for sally because of lack of adequate reasoning. Pray tell, what do you consider adequate reasoning?

wilwa. The tone of her posts is pretty innocent, but that doesn't tell anything about her role because she just is sweet that way. I'm not convinced she would've voted for sally if a wolf, but I still think her reaction to my posts was somewhat fishy. Not voting for her today though.

Rikae. Yesterday, she said I could be anything. Today, I'm leaning towards the cobbler. The wolves probably know by now it's not me, so it would be very convenient for them to encourage the village to lynch me as the cobbler. Not voting for her either because I haven't gone through her posts properly and because suspecting her has ended badly before, but I'm wary of her.

Green. I found her pretty okay (although too quiet) until she started twisting my words and basically accusing me of lying about why an evil me wouldn't do something that I didn't do. I don't care if she says it was a joke - if she phrases it so that someone might easily jump on it, it looks evil.

INNOCENT
Mac. I don't think a wolf would bring out points against a possible cobbler (me) so early on, even to say "I saw your hint but won't do anything to you, just be nice now ok." Plus he's being reasonable. In spite of this all, I'm deeply amused he tops my innocent list.
Lommy. Has good points and seems generally very innocent.
Caílin. She voted for me yesterday but didn't say anything about me looking like the cobbler. My reason says a wolf wouldn't take the risk. Apart from that, she's being delightfully Cailínish which doesn't unfortunately tell us anything about her role.
Shasta. Comes across as genuine and doesn't look like he was trying to twist anything I say to suit any darker purposes.
Eomer. I can hardly ever read him, but I'm not overly worried about him at the moment.
Lottie. I'm okay with her for now.

EITHER
Legate. I still feel uneasy about him, but I'm not sure he would've chosen Ozban as his first kill. And I think his reaction to skip's hunter joke was pretty innocent. My assumption is that no one would lie about their role if they're dropping out of the game. A double reveal would have meant that either Kit or skip had been lying... and although there's a chance he's a wolf who thought Kit was the cobbler or the other way round, I find it unlikely. That would be some extremely good acting on Legate's part - it took him 14 minutes to write a long-ish post which, I think, isn't enough for a non-native speaker to successfully feign surprise.
Pitch. Wishy-washy reaction to my cobbler play yesterday. He's kind of all over the place in the sense that he talks about everybody and has something to say on everything. He's been getting a lot of attention and I'm simply too lazy to go through him myself at the moment.
Nessa. To be honest, I can't see what makes her so suspicious.
Inzil. There are a couple of things I don't like about him: his "Nessa seems off, why do maths on day 1?" vote, his quickness to draw a connection between himself and the dead, and the half-accusatory tone of "You sally-voters, what were you thinking!?" Apart from that, I'm not very concerned about him though.
Boro. Speaking a lot without saying much brings to mind a Cobblemir I seem to remember. He's up to something, only I'm not sure what. The thing is, I agree with him about role discussion not being a waste of time, but he was doing it really elaborately. I'm wavering on what to think of his "damage control defense" of Pitch. The Boro I know has no problem whatsoever throwing his fellows under the bus, but in this game the wolves have such an advantage while the four of them are still alive that I wouldn't put it past him to defend a fellow.
BG. I don't particularly like her style (pops in, votes and leaves without saying much) but that indicates neither guilt nor innocence.
Mänwe. Never played with him before and don't know what to expect. I know he had a reason to be absent on day 1, but I still find it amusing how he targets on the quiet players and says he'll refrain from commenting on us others for now.
Valier. As enigmatic as ever.

**

My non-Downer friend (who doesn't know my role) is lying on the floor next to my chair and trying to distract me: "Macalaure is a wolf. I know he is. I must be the seer. I hope the wolves don't come and eat me tonight. Do you suspect Macalaure? Let's lynch Macalaure! Don't write that!"

[Aganzir]

Nessa - Rikae
BG - Nessa
Lottie - Kit
skip - ed
Eomer - Nessa 2
Shasta - Lottie
Pitch - Nessa 3

Left: ed, Mac, Kit?, wilwa, Zil, Rikae, Boro, Green, Mänwe, Val, Legate, Lommy, Agan, Cailín

Didn't vote yesterday: Mac, Mänwe, Green (& BG)
I don't think any one of them is under the risk of being modfired, though.

[Mänwe]

This was always going to be the outcome; our numbers large enough for the evil amongst us to strike with impunity- such is the wickedness of Melkor- during these early days of torment. For this is the torment he seeks in his discord, to have in His creation, creation marred with self preservation.

And so two unspoken spirits are extinguished and one of ours who was among the most talkative is lynched. Posts of no substance and posts of substance are marked as being both innocent and evil; the same can be said of those who speak profusely and those who do not, heh none of us can win. Shall we now see two well spoken spirits killed during Melkor’s forced sleep and one unspoken spirit lynched?

Much is said of ones innocence that lies low, so I would have those who have spoken little (and who had offered no reason for their absence) step forward in this darkness, identify themselves because I can barely see and explain themselves. Those who have appeared to me as quite quiet and who have three or less posts in our first day of incarceration (and who survived the night’s carnage) are as I see it, the following.

[accountable, just]Cailín; #10(1i) – informs us of a flight, will be interesting to see how vocal she is today after posts #186(2i) and #205(2ii) appear to be reactionary to the nights events.

[unaccountable!]Blind Guardian; #47(1i) offers no reason for his absence and says due to this absence he will not vote. While Day 2, #181(2i) #187(2ii) expresses delight at survival and math reasoning for the ‘easy lynch’.

[unaccountable]A Little Green; #73(1i) a late Day 1 post (and nothing since) and casts a few nonchalant suspicions on Agan and Rikae.

[unaccountable]elronds_daughter; #71(1i) a late post to say driving a result of inactivity and appears content to just follow the flow of previous chatter. #152(1ii) jumps in with a blind (bandwagon) vote seemingly just conforming. #200(2i), ah back again to say a few odd bits that again to me appear to conform. Will look out for the more substantial post. Perhaps all a little too obvious.

I’ll hold back comments on other players for the time being.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

[unaccountable!]Blind Guardian; #47(1i) offers no reason for his absence and says due to this absence he will not vote. While Day 2, #181(2i) #187(2ii) expresses delight at survival and math reasoning for the ‘easy lynch’.

Sorry, I didn't realize I didn't explain myself. It was a very busy day here. I had a lot of scrubbing to do and still have more to do. Had to take the dog for a walk, went shopping waaayyyy in Phoenix. Later today I have to paint a ceiling and finish some walls and finish cleaning those shelves.

I was just putting in my point of view, which if you have played with me before, gets me lynched, 'cause everything I say sounds insane. Maybe I am crazy a little. And yes it is a miracle at surviving day 1, for me.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, I've been sick and sharing computer with the totally not caught up with stuff Greenie, so my participation has been and will be quite diminished toDay... my apologies. Trying to do my best with the amount of concentration and time I have right now.

Originally Posted by Mac

Excellent memory and quick brains? No offense to Inzil, but remembering who you were after and who was after you one Day ago is really not that much of a feat.

I believe he remembered who agreed with him and who he voted. Not that it's such a big thing to remember, but honestly, I necessarily wouldn't and it takes some quick thinking to connect the facts together and to the dead people in three minutes (including typing).

Agan is annoying me slightly, so I'm starting to trust her. She tends to take that nitpicky Lobelia tone when she's innocent. This, however, doesn't make me agree with her. I don't really know what she achieved by analysing everybody's actions towards herself. (But I guess analysing that is better than analysing nothing. )

[Thinlómien]

Innocentish
Mac - looks like innocent Mac as opposed to guilty Mac. I like his points although I don't agree with all of them. Have to add, though, that at times he's made me a bit wary toDay (compared to looking very innocent yesterDay) so I'm not totally sure.
Kitanna - obviously.
Rikae - has not been so light cavalry-ish toDay, so I think I can read her better and I'm not very worried atm.
Boro - like I said yesterDay, looks more like innocent Boro to me. A pity he doesn't seem as sincere and in your face as he did yesterDay but I'm not still having doubts yet.
Greenie - I think I can recognise the busy ordo Greenie and here we have her.

In between
Eomer - under my radar, like I've said before. I feel like I can't read him.
Shasta - seems more elusive and joke-y than usual which is weird. Reminds me of early wolf-Shastas, but recently he's been much smoother as a wolf (remembering especially that one horrid game which he won). So, I'm unsure.
Lottie - I feel like I should have an opinion on her but I really don't. People seem very opinionated about her but she's mostly under my radar or in the contradictory books. Another whose posts I'd like to check when I have time.
Pitch - a lot the same as Lottie. Rather edgy but somehow honest all the same. Difficult.
BG - confusing.
Mänwë - even more confusing.
Valier - won't judge before I see more. No alarm bells yet, though.
Legate - don't even pretend I can read him anymore. Not too worrying, whatsoever.
Cailín - posts a lot but leaves a somehow impersonal impression. Kind of reserved but somehow warm, difficult to figure out.
Agan - leaning innocent with the abrasive behaviour but not sure. Hasn't picked on me yet.

Suspicious-ish
Ed - there's something vaguely fishy in her tone, she rubs me the wrong way. Mostly under the radar though. Would like to check her posts but doesn't look like I'd have the time toDay.
Nessa - totally submarine-ish, could possibly be a wolf based on Ozban's death and wasn't exactly convincing yesterDay either. Lynching her would feel rather knee-jerk, though.
Wilwa - is being incredibly defensive and talking weird stuff. Like I said yesterDay, might be just some RL stress but today she's been giving me plain bad vibes.
Zil - his first post toDay was incredibly fishy and nothing can change that. Rather annoying/confusing though that he looked so innocent to me yesterDay.
Skip - slightly fishy toDay, I don't like his joking tone. But then again, he looked fishy to me in my own game where I certainly knew he was an ordo! Unsure, slightly leaning guilty.


edit: xed with Val

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hum. I don't like Lottie's vote. At all.

++Lottie

And in any case there doesn't seem to be as much support for a Legate lynch as I'd hoped for, so.

[Cailín]

I just read over Loslote's posts and I do not like what I see. She seems very unsure of herself (fair enough - most of us are), but her apologetic behaviour and her unwillingness to take responsibility for her choices seem particularly shady. Also, her vote for Kitanna, leaving judgment in the hands of one who has admitted that she can hardly be involved, rather than trusting to her own.

I am also okay lynching Nessa and clear up some confusion there. I have not had time to look at ED's posts and feel lynching her would be a stab in the dark that would tell us nothing.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I believe he remembered who agreed with him and who he voted. Not that it's such a big thing to remember, but honestly, I necessarily wouldn't and it takes some quick thinking to connect the facts together and to the dead people in three minutes (including typing).

That is true, on the other hand, maybe that's the instinct of an inspector, to quickly put up facts together (surprised you did not mention that).

Now, a list - more for myself than for anybody else, to see all the names in front of me at the same moment and to somewhat summarise what exactly I think of everybody - and whom could I vote:

Eomer - I am a bit worried about him from some things he says, but I don't think I'd have reason to vote him now
L. Ron Hubbard - submarine indeed, though I would prefer voting for somebody I suspect at least a bit to a random shot, even if at a sumbarine
Macalaure - looks good-ish enough to me
Shastanis Althreduin - he actually seems reasonable, I quite like him this far
Loslote - I am actually thinking quite well of her by now
Kitanna - a Hunter. At least until somebody else starts claiming otherwise. *eyes Skip*
wilwarin538 - flip-floppy about her, but at least for certain not going to vote her at least this far
Nessa Telrunya - a thing or two raised eyebrows, I'm wondering about the possible implications of the Night kills, but hard to say
Pitchwife - not much of an idea, not really suspicious
Inziladun - wary of, but not really strongly suspecting him
Rikae - creeps me out, like I said, she is hard to read in general
Boromir88 - unsure about, watching
A Little Green - I have just very little idea about her, need to start pay more attention to her. There's just too many people and she has not been posting so much.
Blind Guardian - little to go with...
Skip Spence - suspicious, but the Hunter-joke, like I said, makes me think a Wolf would not pull that off. I am sort of debating with myself whether I should not overcome this feeling and vote him anyway, the question is - would a Skipwolf be so careless/bold to post something like that even as a Wolf?
Mänwe - nice to see him around, this far did not have much chance to participate, setting him aside for now, shall evaluate on him later once there's more
Valier - there is something fishy about her, I am not sure
Thinlómien - I am actually rather suspicious of her this time, interestingly. She posts in a way that seems unusual in comparison to her innocent self.
Aganzir - it's Agan. Mind of a Wolf, for sure. Whether she is an actual Wolf is another thing. Watching her.
Caílin - could be either

Actually, this list is not very helpful. In fact, it is not helpful at all. I have very, very hazy idea about most of people. I would hope it to change soon. Anyway, there are some people from whom I will probably not select, than I can think about the others...

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy

[Valier]

im posting this with one hand while i get screamed at....

i don't like the bandwagon for nessa

++ Skip

I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.

[Macalaure]

Nessa -> Rikae
BG -> Nessa
Lottie -> Kitanna
Skip -> elronds_daughter
Eomer -> Nessa(2)
Shasta -> Lottie
Pitch -> Nessa(3)


With the exception of Shasta, I dislike all of these votes.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Pardon, but I don't believe that's what I said. What I was saying was 'the Sallywagon sprang up very late in the day - it wouldn't surprise me if there was a wolf in the running at the time'. I didn't say 'every person in the running before Sally is a wolf'.

I know, but just because one wolf is in the running is no reason to come up with a new bandwaggon, since there were others to choose from. The Sally-waggon is only very suspicious if everybody else running was evil.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Please explain how you can say my vote for Nessa was "baddie-baddie-bad-bad" (which is an awful lot of emphasis) when you know neither my role (which you very obviously don't) nor hers.

Pretty bad case of bandwaggoning by someone I suspect on someone I think is innocent.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I object to that nickname.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I just don't get how you got there in the first place.

Mostly some things others said about you, Kitanna in particular, if I remember correctly. I'll have to go see for myself, which I probably won't be able to before the deadline.


So, Boro, how's toDay different to yesterDay? I'm waiting for something.


Out of the ones who have a vote, I could imagine going for Lottie myself (apart from what I said before, her vote for Kitanna is a very easy way out, which could be wolfish). Otherwise, I'd prefer Boro, but could also go for Pitch, Eomer, or Skip.

edit: crossed with Valier, there's another vote I like.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So once again going through it (sorry for the lists)

Not voting (green zone): Kitanna (I suggest we keep her for toMorrow, if anybody considers it still valuable to lynch her, we might do so, or just let her modfired - which I would perhaps prefer now), Agan (her reasoning about my innocence sounds like something a Wolf would not come up with - the thing about 14 minutes and non-native speakers), Shasta, Mac (for both see above)

Not voting (for not enough data): LG, Mänwe

Not voting (yellow zone, i.e. not strong enough reason to want to see them gone): wilwa, Loslote

Could vote (if none of my top suspects seem to be available for lynching etc.): Rikae, Nessa, BG, Hubbard (written in decreasing order of willingness to lynch them)

Would like to vote: possibly Skip, possibly Lommy, possibly Valier, possibly Boro

Unsure to which cathegory to put: Inzil, Pitchwife (status pending...)

EDIT: xed since my last

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't really know what she achieved by analysing everybody's actions towards herself. (But I guess analysing that is better than analysing nothing.)

Gosh you make me sound so self-centered! My innocence is the only thing I know for sure. And I hope people's reactions towards me and my little cobbler show might prove useful after I'm dead.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

the sallywagon could point to a wolf among the people leading in the tally before her; which would be me, Zil and Nessa (plus possibly Lottie, but she had only two votes). At the time the sallywagon got rolling for good, Zil and I had three votes each, Nessa four.

I don't particularly like this... I guess it's possible a wolf or two wanted to save a fellow or two from the gallows, but you have to keep in mind we have only so many wolves, and there was a lot of cross posting. And the fact that at least in my opinion there were much better reasons for voting for sally than anyone else.

I'd much prefer some coherent thoughts instead of scattered from ed (like a list or something).

Also here's an updated tally with Nessa's vote in it.

Nessa - Rikae
BG - Nessa
Lottie - Kit
skip - ed
Eomer - Nessa 2
Shasta - Lottie
Pitch - Nessa 3
Val - skip
Green - Inzil

Left: ed, Mac, Kit?, wilwa, Zil, Rikae, Boro, Mänwe, Legate, Lommy, Agan, Cailín

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Honestly, after so many werewolf games I do not believe wolves conform to a certain behavioural pattern at all. If I had been a wolf, I would probably have tried the fly under the radar approach yesterDay. After all, this village is huge. I have no idea who is in it. I just think that completely unfounded accusations on Day 1 are actually easier and more convincingly defended.

Be that as it may (and you're right on on count: as a wolf I would be bold enough to make unfounded accusations and "stir the pot" if I felt so inclined), you began all this by implying that a Nessa-wolf would certainly not have dared to say "she knows something we don't", this sort of comment being somehow so risky, so assertive that no wolf would dare try to get suspicion going in such a bold way. Balderdash.

[Rikae]

Regarding Kit, I'd prefer it if we had more time to choose her kill, if we have to do so. Even after two days, when she is scheduled to be modfired, we'll have more information to go on. Trouble is, it would require her to be around to change her kill at that time according to the village, unless she and Nog are willing to have her kill determined by a vote of the village in two days. It would also require Kit to vote toDay to buy time.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Be that as it may (and you're right on on count: as a wolf I would be bold enough to make unfounded accusations and "stir the pot" if I felt so inclined), you began all this by implying that a Nessa-wolf would certainly not have dared to say "she knows something we don't", this sort of comment being somehow so risky, so assertive that no wolf would dare try to get suspicion going in such a bold way. Balderdash.

Aye, well, I meant to imply no such thing - I just wanted to say that on Day 1 there is no sense to go looking for an easy lynch, because they usually tend to present themselves - but we all know one needs to be fairly bold to go against you.

[Cailín]

I wanted to look into Loslote and Nessa, because I seem to be swayed by the suspicion against them. I also decided - based on a gut feeling - to analyse Wilwarin and elronds_daughter even though I had taken little note of them before.

So far I only had time for Wilwarin and Nessa. Don't expect these analyses to be like a glass of clear, cool water, though, because my thoughts are seldom quite as organised as some of the die-hards here.

Wilwarin

#77 seems offended by the discussion about roles and behaviour. Tone is somewhat patronizing, which I have rarely seen from Wilwa before. Antagonises more people by “refusing to jump on the Pitch wagon”.
She lists some initial thoughts on people, mostly based on past performance and behavior. Who are Cupcake and Pop?

#83 argues with Rikae, which prompts a vote from Rikae’s end.

#88 agrees with Legate that Loslote’s post looks somewhat suspicious. Confusion about a possible Cobbler hint from Aganzir detected by Legate.

#89 Clarifies her fear of a Pitch wagon

#93 Defends herself against Pitch’s accusations. Says she does not suspect Legate or Loslote yet, though concedes there are some legitimate reasons to suspect Lottie.

#106 Defends herself again, this time against Boro, who was a staunch defender of the roles and rules discussion. Her tone is milder now.

#116 Ah, Cupcake refers to Sally. Wilwarin does not like her post, mainly because of the whole Cobbler thing (she does not mention this explicitly in an attempt to conceal from the Cobbler / Wolves what she obviously thinks is a good idea). She defends Skip and questions Sally’s assessment of Kitanna.

#123 suspects Sally (and has various reasonable arguments for Day 1) and thinks she will vote for her today.

#129 votes for Sally.

#134 again defends herself against Kath, who misrepresented Wilwa’s initial post in her analysis. Defends herself against accusations of defensiveness (always counterproductive)

#160 does not like Aganzir drawing attention to Sally’s point about the Cobbler (which was also Wilwa’s main reason for voting Sally) and suspects Aganzir might not have the village’s best interest at heart.

Today

#171 defends her decision to vote for Sally again referring to the Cobbler incident.

Wilwarin has been quite consistent so far. She does seem fairly defensive – not just of herself but of other people as well – and such behavior always leads to discomfort. However, she was one of the few people yesterday who bothered to build a case – however wrong it may have been – against someone and stated her reasons for her vote as clearly and lucidly as she thought advisable. At the moment I doubt she is evil.

Nessa

#28 starts with some maths. I won’t argue with that.

#55 Confused about Rikae’s suspicion of Pitchwife. Suggests Rikae “seems to know something we don’t”

#64 explains her lack of participation

#147 votes Rikae. Claims her post was misinterpreted and she had meant to accuse Rikae, not out her as a possible Seer. Says Rikae has been jumpy. Unsure about the Legate-is-the-Cobbler debate and the suspicion against Sally.

Today

#211 votes Rikae again and does not think she will be back.

There is really so very little to go on here. Post #55 looks weird, but could just be carelessly phrased. She hardly comments on any of the other players. I have never played with Nessa before, so I cannot comment on her style (to me it looks like she may be relatively new to the game). She has definitely done little to make her look innocent.

[Inziladun]

I would prefer to keep Kit as a known innocent and a thorn in the side of the wolves, but her words seem to indicate she won't be able to do anything more in the game, be it voting, or just observing the thread in order to decide who she should hunt. Her most recent post said it was "the last post she can make", not specifying that only went for toDay, or the rest of the game. She seems convinced she's going to be modfired, and wants to instead go out using her gift.
So, if she's merely modfired, we don't risk innocent blood being spilled with her, but her gift will be wasted. There are five baddies, including the Cobbler. That's a decent chance of her getting one of them.
As far as wolves go, I'm still concerned about Val, Nessa, and maybe Pitch. I think Mac raised some decent points about him.

[Rikae]

Do we know that Kit can't use her gift if modfired?

Even so, we can wait until toMorrow to lynch her... if she's gone now, though, we have no say in who she's hunting, nor do we know it. We need clarification from the NogMod, but what if he can't? What if she isn't the hunter at all? I don't like this.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Do we know that Kit can't use her gift if modfired?

Even so, we can wait until toMorrow to lynch her... if she's gone now, though, we have no say in who she's hunting, nor do we know it. We need clarification from the NogMod, but what if he can't? What if she isn't the hunter at all? I don't like this.

While it's good to consider everything, I think you're either being slightly paranoid or trying to distract us. The chances she was lying are extremely slim - you just don't do that if you have to drop out of the game. Not that I like the lack of information much, either.