Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yes Wilwa's post explaining her motives was rather defensive, but I don't see this as a problem. I have often seen ordos becoming extremely defensive and this particular post seems rather innocent.

Maybe I am biased, because I share a few of Wilwa's views, like double lynch an al right alternative to a single lynch.

While a double-lynch does increase the chance of getting a wolf, it almost amounts to writing off at least one innocent, since the odds are so much against bagging two wolves at once. And often you just ending up killing two innocents. So that's why they're unpopular. Nonetheless, I think the risk is acceptable on Day One in a large village– no, I don't see Wilwa's suggestion as evil.

Her defence toDay does seem a bit too jittery to me, though.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While a double-lynch does increase the chance of getting a wolf, it almost amounts to writing off at least one innocent, since the odds are so much against bagging two wolves at once. And often you just ending up killing two innocents. So that's why they're unpopular. Nonetheless, I think the risk is acceptable on Day One in a large village– no, I don't see Wilwa's suggestion as evil.

Her defence toDay does seem a bit too jittery to me, though.

I am completely aware of the dangers of the double lynch, but I do find it refreshing that there are other people than me who do not shun them as if they where plague infested.

About Sally, I am not quite sure what to make of her. I do think there is merit to Wilwa's thoughts, it would be very bold of two Elves to act in the manner Lottie and Sally did. So it does seem unlikely that Sally is an elf, but it is of course not impossible that SoE is extremely gutsy.

I will suply a full list of thoughts latter.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Well the way Lottielf voted for Phantom so early in the Day it almost seems like something she would have talked to the other SoE about during the Night, so for another SoE to also do it just seems strange. Also if Sally is an elf and voted like that, I don't know why her fellow elf would come on and vote the same right after, they must have known that would draw way too much attention to themselves, and I don't see them doing that. Like I said though, it doesn't make me feel fantastic about Sally, but I would still be a little surprised if she turned out to be an Elf.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

About Sally, I am not quite sure what to make of her. I do think there is merit to Wilwa's thoughts, it would be very bold of two Elves to act in the manner Lottie and Sally did. So it does seem unlikely that Sally is an elf, but it is of course not impossible that SoE is extremely gutsy.

Think again. First vote was cast by Sally. Second vote by Lottie– who is indeed "gutsy" and also– perhaps even more importantly– inexperienced as a wolf. Look at how Lottie played yesterDay– she was quite unprepared for the amount of suspicion her vote attracted, You see, your argument is coming close to saying that Lottielf wouldn't do something we know she did. That is, whether or not she voted right after her fellow, she did vote in a way that drew attention to herself, and in fact ended by getting lynched.

It could be that they had a plan to vote phantom into power, either because he's one of them, or because they thought they could manipulate and perhaps frame him, but that Lottie jumped the gun instead of leaving a decent interval before voting. It could be that there was no plan, but that Lottie decided to vote along with her mate anyway, because it was all a light-hearted early-Day-One party atmosphere and could be passed off as a joke.

It could be both Sally and phantom are completely innocent and Lottie was up to some scheme of her own.

Whatever. The point is, it's highly premature to discount Sally as a suspect based purely on what Lottie did.

EDIT:X'd with Sally herself.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

As for the seer bit, I would have done the same thing. In fact I did, last game, in order to save Skip. But I usually wouldn't do that if I didn't think the seer was in danger, or if I didn't have a darn good reason otherwise. So I don't know.

I haven't forgotten last game– but that was such a different situation I didn't think it was even worth taking into account.

I am frustrated with phantom– less with the actual ploy, whatever it is, than with his attitude that nothing he does should be questioned.

Originally Posted by Sally

Babe, you're not making sense. I understand your piece about Phantom, and agree with it actually, though that's just sort of who he is, but to say that you'd rather I was lynched than Lottie? You would have learned nothing. Well, you would have, in that an innocent would have been lynched and, when Lottie did get lynched and was proven guilty, you would have had a lot to look at in regards to the first Day. But saying "I wish we hadn't Fenris'd someone" is never okay to say. Never. Sure, say "We should lynch Sally and see what happens and what we can learn with both of them dead" but you can't say you'd rather I was dead than a proven elf. I can't understand why you would say this unless you were one too. Sorry, kid, but it's true.

Er– hang on. I thought he meant, "YesterDay I would have rather Sally had been lynched", not "I now wish Lottie hadn't been lynched". You reckon that's what he meant?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I haven't forgotten last game– but that was such a different situation I didn't think it was even worth taking into account.

Fair enough. And in fact I was saying the same thing. I think it's perfectly logical to fake seer in order to save the seer or to put yourself in more danger in order to protect them, but I don't think Phantom had the reasoning or timing to do so.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I am frustrated with Phantom– less with the actual ploy, whatever it is, than with his attitude that nothing he does should be questioned.

Meh, understandable. I don't think he's a cleared innocent either, but I must say....I think him not voting may actually speak more to his innocence than if he had voted Lottie at Day's end. Shocking, you say? Scandalous? Not really.

Let's say Phantom is a SoB....erm, SoE. *headdesks, couldn't resist* Knowing that Phantom is a dirty, lowdown, double-crossing scumbag (with love, dear), he would likely be happy to vote for a packmate. It would make him look good, in fact. Thus, why wouldn't he just pile his votes on and say "look at me, I killed Lottie" and add to his train of Reasons Not to Suspect Phantom? It would make sense to do so, and while yes, some people would likely call him out and say "but you didn't kill her, in fact she was already dead before you voted", he would still look good to the masses, his "vote me and I won't vote you" pledge aside.

Basically, a wolf!Phantom would bus his packmate if he got the chance and it was really advantageous for him to do so. I'm not saying he would kill a packmate just because he fancied it, but I feel that he would double cross a fellow wolf/elf/thing if the situation had desired benefits. Especially if said packmate was already dead, or mostly dead, or whatever.

Granted, I'm not saying that I trust Phantom completely, because he could have thought of all the above beforehand and predicted that I (or someone else) would say this exact thing in his defense, but I think that voting for Lottie would have, in that case, looked actually worse than not voting at all.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Er– hang on. I thought he meant, "YesterDay I would have rather Sally had been lynched", not "I now wish Lottie hadn't been lynched". You reckon that's what he meant?

I think he meant a bit of both, at least subconsciously? I think he means that yesterDay he would have preferred to see me lynched, and he still feels that way toDay. More of a preference to having me dead than an outright attitude of "I wish Lottie was still alive", but the undertones -subtext, for Shasta's enjoyment- still remain the same. He wasn't happy with yesterDay's lynch, and that makes me nervous.


EDIT: x'd since my last, and attempting to fix all my bolding/italics because Chrome is hateful

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yet, there is a big difference from one SoE gambling on a day1, to two SoE doing it. I would never say that we wouldn't see a SoE acting very bold/inexperienced on day1, it has been seen many times before, but for them to openly team up in such a gamble is more unlikely.

Which is why it didn't happen. One elf, yes, two elves, no.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Read my post again, Rune. The point is, Lottie's decision to vote phantom when she did might well have been something she decided for herself; therefore it doesn't tell us much about Sally.

I think what you're saying is that Lottie could have jumped onto my vote without my consent or prior knowledge/planning. Yes?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I think what you're saying is that Lottie could have jumped onto my vote without my consent or prior knowledge/planning. Yes?

Exactly.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The point is, it's highly premature to discount Sally as a suspect based purely on what Lottie did.

Heh. Agreed. You think I want no one suspecting me? That happens, I end up Night killed. No thanks. I'd rather be poked at here and there and stay alive.

EDIT: x'd with another Nerwen!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Think again. First vote was cast by Sally. Second vote by Lottie– who is indeed "gutsy" and also– perhaps even more importantly– inexperienced as a wolf. Look at how Lottie played yesterDay– she was quite unprepared for the amount of suspicion her vote attracted, You see, your argument is coming close to saying that Lottielf wouldn't do something we know she did. That is, whether or not she voted right after her fellow, she did vote in a way that drew attention to herself, and in fact ended by getting lynched.

Yet, there is a big difference from one SoE gambling on a day1, to two SoE doing it. I would never say that we wouldn't see a SoE acting very bold/inexperienced on day1, it has been seen many times before, but for them to openly team up in such a gamble is more unlikely.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yet, there is a big difference from one SoE gambling on a day1, to two SoE doing it. I would never say that we wouldn't see a SoE acting very bold/inexperienced on day1, it has been seen many times before, but for them to openly team up in such a gamble is more unlikely.

Read my post again, Rune. The point is, Lottie's decision to vote phantom when she did might well have been something she decided for herself; therefore it doesn't tell us much about Sally.

[the phantom]

*stumbles in yawning*

Originally Posted by Green

What made you change your mind? (regarding Wilwa)

A combination of the lynch yesterday and her explanation today. Also, as I may have mentioned earlier, I'm keen to give a one day pass to anyone who had some sort of hand in lynching Lottie, so for the purposes of today's exercises I may as well think of them as innocent and see where that gets me.

Originally Posted by Green

Speaking of that - I'm sorry if you've already explained this and I have missed it, but why didn't you vote yesterDay?

Because I thought it prudent to leave the lynch the way it was. And looking at the result, I'd have to say that I did indeed make the smart decision.

Originally Posted by Legate

Although, on the other hand, I'd like to look at the timing of his Seer reveal - because now it had occured to me that if he was a Wolf, acting boldly, and then suddenly one of his teammates was about to be lynched, his boldness suddenly meant another possible threat to the WWs' team, so maybe he could try even more ridiculous move to save his skin by revealing as a Seer? If you know what I mean. But I think that would make more sense only if he revealed after it was clear that Lottie goes.

Concerning my timing, I revealed in the very last post of the entire day after all votes had been cast, therefore there was no chance at all that I was trying to impact the voting. I was watching my clock very carefully and I posted when I believed it to be under 15 seconds until the deadline.

Originally Posted by Rune

Personally I am of the opinion that if a seer was to reveal his or hers true identity on the basis on a bluff like yesterday, then they deserve to get lynched for being bloody stupid.

Thanks lad. Exactly what I think. Oh, and sorry for making you want to crush your skull with a hammer.

Regarding Sally's guilt/innocence, I'm not convinced one way or the other, but as a logical starting point for today I would like to assume her innocence and see what conclusions that yields. If we hit dead ends, then we can revisit her.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But in answer to your intimation that I would rather Sally have been lynched yesterday than Lottie - Yes, I would have. But Lottie being evil doesn't exonerate Sally in the slightest - in fact I'm more suspicious of her now than I was - so I don't see why you brought it up.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not sure about this. It would have been really bold from Lottielf to follow Sallyelf's rep vote so openly. Then again, I'm not sure of whether I've ever played with an evil Lottie before, so I don't know whether she would pull a stunt like that.

I've been leaning toward Lottie's Elvishness being a point in favor of Sally, since voting for the same rep so close together seems so reckless. It's possible they were mates, but it seems like a bold move, especially for a Day 1. I think it's nearly certain though that if Sally is another Elf, phantom isn't.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Speaking of that - I'm sorry if you've already explained this and I have missed it, but why didn't you vote yesterDay? As far as I've seen you have just given a lot of reasons why you would have voted had you been an elf.

I don't remember seeing his explanation for that, either. Could be another convoluted scheme of an orcish tp, or a move by an phantelf to avoid commitment.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Right, defensive = evil, sorry, I forgot that as an innocent I should have no desire to remain alive.

That looks rather odd as well. There's certainly nothing wrong with defending oneself, but your response looked out of proportion to the situation.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Also I should probably mention that even though I would love to receive a mandate from the masses, today is not a good day for me to be a representative. . . Unless you want a representative who show up drunk and makes a more or less random vote.

Looks to me like you'd merely be on-par with the majority of world politicians.

x/d with Sally x 2