Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Just a quick point- I do not necessarily support giving voting power today to the people most likely to be innocent, particularly if they are likely innocent because they've already proven themselves with their vote as a rep. I would like to see new blood for the most part, while we have time. It will be more important at the end to hand power to the sure thing. Right now let's try and give others a chance in hopes that a couple of others can prove themselves as well, giving us a better chance of having someone trustworthy left alive at the finish.

I strongly agree with this.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Wilwa's latest comes across as highly defensive.

Right, defensive = evil, sorry, I forgot that as an innocent I should have no desire to remain alive.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

1. He's an Elf. Simple.
2. He's not an Elf, but, in direct contradiction of what she says here, she was confident of being able to manipulate him.
3. He's not an Elf, but she believed him to be the Unknown Orc, who had already decided to go over to the Elves (denies this here and here).

The third one is actually not a possibility, since the Unknown Orc only chose their side this past Night.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Anyway this Phantom vs. Nerwen business is starting make me feel sick and I have given up on taking proper notes. . . Is this a delusional power struggle or simply a massive case of over analysing each other?

Personally I am of the opinion that if a seer was to reveal his or hers true identity on the basis on a bluff like yesterday, then they deserve to get lynched for being bloody stupid.

Yes the Phantoms actions are often weird and sometimes makes you want to crush your own skull with a sledgehammer, but that is just something you have to get used to. Personally I do not believe half his tales about how cunning he is, but I don't find him overly suspicious and I definitely do not see it as being beneficial to spend the entire day fighting him.

I'm going to say a massive case of over analysing each other. And I agree with everything else you said. I really don't want this to take up the rest of the Day, it was a bluff, clearly, and it makes more sense to be an innocent bluff rather than a guilty one.

And I actually think that Lottie turning up guilty does make Sally look a bit better (though not all better, because her attributing Lottie's death to Phantom is weird, since he didn't vote and seemed to actually have been leaning towards a Boro vote (and may have voted him instead, if Izzy hadn't of voted)).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

The third one is actually not a possibility, since the Unknown Orc only chose their side this past Night.

I know that. That's why I said "has already decided". Meaning that he could have decided to go over to the wolves on Day One, even before making a formal decision. Lottielf went to some trouble to discount this possibility, so it may be that's exactly what she thought was happening.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I'm going to say a massive case of over analysing each other. And I agree with everything else you said. I really don't want this to take up the rest of the Day, it was a bluff, clearly, and it makes more sense to be an innocent bluff rather than a guilty one.

Listen, my only intention here is make some kind of sense of the phantom-engima. If I keep poking at him, it's because he keeps thrashing madly when poked at– which naturally makes me wonder. I do not think it "makes more sense as an innocent bluff"– I've said why. I agree it shouldn't be the only thing we talk about, though.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And I actually think that Lottie turning up guilty does make Sally look a bit better (though not all better, because her attributing Lottie's death to Phantom is weird, since he didn't vote and seemed to actually have been leaning towards a Boro vote (and may have voted him instead, if Izzy hadn't of voted)).

Why do you think it makes her look better, Wilwa? I don't see that at all, myself.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Yes Wilwa's post explaining her motives was rather defensive, but I don't see this as a problem. I have often seen ordos becoming extremely defensive and this particular post seems rather innocent.

Maybe I am biased, because I share a few of Wilwa's views, like double lynch an al right alternative to a single lynch.


Also I should probably mention that even though I would love to receive a mandate from the masses, today is not a good day for me to be a representative. . . Unless you want a representative who show up drunk and makes a more or less random vote.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Yes Wilwa's post explaining her motives was rather defensive, but I don't see this as a problem. I have often seen ordos becoming extremely defensive and this particular post seems rather innocent.

Maybe I am biased, because I share a few of Wilwa's views, like double lynch an al right alternative to a single lynch.

While a double-lynch does increase the chance of getting a wolf, it almost amounts to writing off at least one innocent, since the odds are so much against bagging two wolves at once. And often you just ending up killing two innocents. So that's why they're unpopular. Nonetheless, I think the risk is acceptable on Day One in a large village– no, I don't see Wilwa's suggestion as evil.

Her defence toDay does seem a bit too jittery to me, though.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

While a double-lynch does increase the chance of getting a wolf, it almost amounts to writing off at least one innocent, since the odds are so much against bagging two wolves at once. And often you just ending up killing two innocents. So that's why they're unpopular. Nonetheless, I think the risk is acceptable on Day One in a large village– no, I don't see Wilwa's suggestion as evil.

Her defence toDay does seem a bit too jittery to me, though.

I am completely aware of the dangers of the double lynch, but I do find it refreshing that there are other people than me who do not shun them as if they where plague infested.

About Sally, I am not quite sure what to make of her. I do think there is merit to Wilwa's thoughts, it would be very bold of two Elves to act in the manner Lottie and Sally did. So it does seem unlikely that Sally is an elf, but it is of course not impossible that SoE is extremely gutsy.

I will suply a full list of thoughts latter.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Well the way Lottielf voted for Phantom so early in the Day it almost seems like something she would have talked to the other SoE about during the Night, so for another SoE to also do it just seems strange. Also if Sally is an elf and voted like that, I don't know why her fellow elf would come on and vote the same right after, they must have known that would draw way too much attention to themselves, and I don't see them doing that. Like I said though, it doesn't make me feel fantastic about Sally, but I would still be a little surprised if she turned out to be an Elf.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

About Sally, I am not quite sure what to make of her. I do think there is merit to Wilwa's thoughts, it would be very bold of two Elves to act in the manner Lottie and Sally did. So it does seem unlikely that Sally is an elf, but it is of course not impossible that SoE is extremely gutsy.

Think again. First vote was cast by Sally. Second vote by Lottie– who is indeed "gutsy" and also– perhaps even more importantly– inexperienced as a wolf. Look at how Lottie played yesterDay– she was quite unprepared for the amount of suspicion her vote attracted, You see, your argument is coming close to saying that Lottielf wouldn't do something we know she did. That is, whether or not she voted right after her fellow, she did vote in a way that drew attention to herself, and in fact ended by getting lynched.

It could be that they had a plan to vote phantom into power, either because he's one of them, or because they thought they could manipulate and perhaps frame him, but that Lottie jumped the gun instead of leaving a decent interval before voting. It could be that there was no plan, but that Lottie decided to vote along with her mate anyway, because it was all a light-hearted early-Day-One party atmosphere and could be passed off as a joke.

It could be both Sally and phantom are completely innocent and Lottie was up to some scheme of her own.

Whatever. The point is, it's highly premature to discount Sally as a suspect based purely on what Lottie did.

EDIT:X'd with Sally herself.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

As for the seer bit, I would have done the same thing. In fact I did, last game, in order to save Skip. But I usually wouldn't do that if I didn't think the seer was in danger, or if I didn't have a darn good reason otherwise. So I don't know.

I haven't forgotten last game– but that was such a different situation I didn't think it was even worth taking into account.

I am frustrated with phantom– less with the actual ploy, whatever it is, than with his attitude that nothing he does should be questioned.

Originally Posted by Sally

Babe, you're not making sense. I understand your piece about Phantom, and agree with it actually, though that's just sort of who he is, but to say that you'd rather I was lynched than Lottie? You would have learned nothing. Well, you would have, in that an innocent would have been lynched and, when Lottie did get lynched and was proven guilty, you would have had a lot to look at in regards to the first Day. But saying "I wish we hadn't Fenris'd someone" is never okay to say. Never. Sure, say "We should lynch Sally and see what happens and what we can learn with both of them dead" but you can't say you'd rather I was dead than a proven elf. I can't understand why you would say this unless you were one too. Sorry, kid, but it's true.

Er– hang on. I thought he meant, "YesterDay I would have rather Sally had been lynched", not "I now wish Lottie hadn't been lynched". You reckon that's what he meant?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The point is, it's highly premature to discount Sally as a suspect based purely on what Lottie did.

Heh. Agreed. You think I want no one suspecting me? That happens, I end up Night killed. No thanks. I'd rather be poked at here and there and stay alive.

EDIT: x'd with another Nerwen!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Think again. First vote was cast by Sally. Second vote by Lottie– who is indeed "gutsy" and also– perhaps even more importantly– inexperienced as a wolf. Look at how Lottie played yesterDay– she was quite unprepared for the amount of suspicion her vote attracted, You see, your argument is coming close to saying that Lottielf wouldn't do something we know she did. That is, whether or not she voted right after her fellow, she did vote in a way that drew attention to herself, and in fact ended by getting lynched.

Yet, there is a big difference from one SoE gambling on a day1, to two SoE doing it. I would never say that we wouldn't see a SoE acting very bold/inexperienced on day1, it has been seen many times before, but for them to openly team up in such a gamble is more unlikely.

[A Little Green]

Not alarming (I hope there is no elves here because that would make me stupid; knowing how easily I am fooled, I'd be inclined to guess one here anyway )
Foley - Just such good vibes from her. I'm very surprised if she's an elf.
Legate - Doesn't worry me too much. Feels genuine in his wishy-washiness, an elf I think would be more.. polished?
Lommy - She felt quite innocent to me even before the Lottie-vote. Hats off if she's an elf.
Nog - From the little I've seen I'm not too concerned.
Phantom - Hats off if he's an elf. I'm pretty convinced he is not. It's not only because of the "I'm the seer" -stunt, but also because of the general feel of his posts.
Rune - Again, such good vibes.
Shasta - I find myself agreeing with him so much that it borders on scary. And while I know he has fooled me brilliantly before (I recall promising, at least twice, never to trust him again) I'd be very surprised if he's an elf this time.
Vanilwa - Her defence seemed genuine, and I just generally like her.

Under the radar (Not surprised if there are one or two elves here, hopefully not three)
Celuien - I'd love a closer look, I'm feeling vaguely concerned right now but couldn't tell why.
Glirdy - Just quite frankly no idea. I'd love a closer look at him too.
Kath - Too little to go on.
Mira - I don't remember anything she's said, apart from voting phantom for rep. Somehow I doubt a Miraelf would have done that after Lottielf, especially if Sally is an elf too, but then again one can never be sure.
Steve - No read whatsoever. Might deserve a closer look too.
Zil - I've never known how to read him, and apparently still don't.

Makes me bang my head against the wall (I think there's at least one elf here)
Nerwen - Not necessarily because I find her elvish, though I wouldn't put that past her. Mainly because half her posts scream "Elf!" and the other half "Orc!"
Sally - Has been acting fishy. Like, very fishy. It's not only her hiding behind phantom yesterDay, but also her toDay's post (I quoted that in my previous one). I'm surprised if she isn't an elf.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why do you think it makes her look better, Wilwa? I don't see that at all, myself.

Well the way Lottielf voted for Phantom so early in the Day it almost seems like something she would have talked to the other SoE about during the Night, so for another SoE to also do it just seems strange. Also if Sally is an elf and voted like that, I don't know why her fellow elf would come on and vote the same right after, they must have known that would draw way too much attention to themselves, and I don't see them doing that. Like I said though, it doesn't make me feel fantastic about Sally, but I would still be a little surprised if she turned out to be an Elf.

[Thinlómien]

So this far right about both Lottie and Boro. Not bad. Although not so right about Izzy... Well, anyway, now I feel encouraged to play and by the way, I apologise for coming so late and going away soon, but I'll be around more on the latter half of the Day.

And wait... Just spoiled myself: I don't like this. You drop outs are losing the advantage we got by being right yesterDay. Grr... Well no reason then to get too happy or lazy.

So some questions rightaway:
- Why did Izzie die?
- Why did phantom say he's the seer?

I have my theories but I'll comment on these issues once I've read others' posts and commented on them because these questions have no doubt been addressed.

Let's see...

Wilwa seems fishy but possibly in an innocent way

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Lynching is our only tool for getting the Elves, so what's the harm in getting a couple done at once? I don't understand.

Sometimes double-lynching might be smart, but not on Day1 when you have very little information on anything.

Nerwen is acting weird. Phantom's annoying me a bit, yes, but I think I know where he's coming from, or sort of. I can testify his claim about not voting fellows - I think he's always done it this far, which of course makes it improbable yet not impossible that he wouldn't do the same in this game.

Originally Posted by tp

1) If Phantom's an Orc, then his purpose is obvious and the best reaction to it would be not to ask questions about it and let him do his thing.
2) If Phantom is the Seer, then his purpose is obvious and the best reaction to it would be not to ask questions about it and let him do his thing.
3) If Phantom is a SoE, I can only assume he's trying to pass himself off as a self-sacrificing Orc, or paving the way for a future reveal. The best reaction would be to watch and wait to see what he does. I might want to question him about it, but given the odds are higher that it's one of the first two options the overall best bet would be to keep my mouth shut.

Well, I'd say 1 is the most probable option, then 3 and then 2. It's very unlikely the real seer would reveal that way, but we cannot be certain, and at this point it's happily more the SoEs' problem than ours (if he really was the seer and died either by them or us, I have no doubt we would find satisfactory clues as for the identity of his dreem subjects).

Btw although I think Nerwen is the one who is "wrong" in this issue I think you phantom are being unnecessarily haughty - if you're not the seer there is always the risk of the seer making a counter-reveal for one reason or another and however small the risk might be it still exists. Nerwen has a point there.

Originally Posted by phantom

Some of you who haven't done so- any chance you could follow the example of Rune and Greenie and make a list in which you name every villager and give a short blurb about them, or at the very least place them into categories of suspicion?

Just so that it's be easier for you and (the other?) SoEs to find the seer? Hey come on.

As for Izzie's death, weel, I'd love to check her posts for possible suspected seer dreams, but I don't have time for that now.

All in all, I'm sorry I'm not being too helpful now, but my brain is too tired to figure out who's guilty atm. I'll just vote my rep and be back tomorrow (it's 1.50 AM here).


edit: double x-ed with Legate

[Thinlómien]

++Nogrod for Rep

I wanted to vote somebody I feel kind of good about but need more info on him to be sure(r).

My other options were Zil and Foley (since Steve was already made a rep), so *hint hint* they could be made reps too. Don't you too want to know more about them?

I chose Nog mostly because I probably agree with him the most out of these three, and I also kind of trust him to hear my say in the vote if i have something worthwile to say.

Good night!

[Thinlómien]

Oh and Rune the drunkard might've been an option too in other conditions , but I'm almost as sure of his innocence as of Greenie's and Legate's... (I think I can currently read these two/three quite well and they are innocent.)

Sweet dreams (and daydreams for you Americans and whatever dreams for Nerwen )!

[wilwarin538]

I'm going to vote now, cause I don't see myself changing my mind

++Folwren

Nerwen -> Shasta
Rune -> Steve
Greenie -> Steve (2)
Nogrod -> Legate
Eonwe -> Legate (2)
Lommy -> Nogrod
Inzil -> Shasta (2)
Wilwa -> Foley

So our reps so far: Legate2, Shasta2, Steve2

And I should still be around randomly for the next couple hours.

edit: had put Nog2 instead of Steve2, oopsie