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Old 07-28-2010, 10:41 PM   #11
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Loslote

I suspected her, but without really knowing why, so here's the analysis. She also seems to have been forgotten by everyone, so I hope this might change it a little.

She's the first to make actual points, which one could interpret as a wolf trying to look helpful and not banter too much. However, her following posts are rather "light" in points. A lot about roles etc. and a lot about people's possible hints.

Her first actual suspicion is only on page 4 - erroneously thinking Nerwen's hint might point to her being Persephone. She believes the theory that Eonwe is the cursed, but doesn't want to lynch him (sensible opinion, I think).

Makes a list which has everybody innocent except for slight suspicions towards me and Autume. (Not stepping on too many people's toes. However, it's just a mid-Day1 list.) Disagrees with me about Zeus's almightiness. (Being the most mighty and being almighty is not the same.) She agrees with me that we shouldn't lynch BG, and suggests me instead (and Autume). She keeps on stating to want to lynch me and her multiple times, and that I find very suspicious. In her list, Tum and me stood out as most suspicious, but it looked more like we were 2/10 in a sea of 1/10. Looking at #231, #234, #260, it really seems to me like she used the list to be able to justify singling out two and then being able to keep those around as prime suspects without having to answer any more questions about it.

She votes Eonwe since Tum and I are not going to be lynched, Eonwe is probably the cursed, and everybody else is still innocent. She notes that BG-voters need to be looked at. Sensible, but also convenient for a wolf who voted someone else. She covers the case of Eonwe being lynched by saying if he's innocent, we need to look at Nogrod (the unpicked cursed villager is an ordo in the tally. If the theory is right, we definitely would have lynched an innocent).

ToDay she starts with suppressed anger and a new list, which looks suspiciously like the old one, except that Nogrod is suspicious now, too. She backs off me a little bit. She suspects Nogrod because he didn't vote for Eonwe. Not exactly a great argument, but alright, except that she could have made the same point yesterDay, after his vote, already. But yesterDay she was content to carry only Tum and me around.


There are several things that could be both evil or good, but the way she handled her suspicions of Autume and me, talks about the BG-waggon and Eonwe's possible innocence (each on its own fine, but in combination it looks bad), and the reason for suspecting Nogrod look rather bad. Prime suspect now, since I lack other strong suspects at the moment.

Last edited by Macalaure; 07-28-2010 at 10:45 PM. Reason: typo
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