WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[Nogrod]

Talking about finding anomalies...

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I feel like making a list:
Look good to me
Kath: though she hasn't posted much I'm getting very good vibes, I especially appreciate her last post, she couldn't come on much but still was sure to cover basically every major topic.

Oh my! That (ADDED: Kath's post) was the most un-educated and well, muddled up post I've seen for a while. I mean she totally messed things up, like talking about Boro's Hades-hints (which?) being an issue or generally just saying that most that we have actually achieved is suspicious.

It's clear Kath has not have time to read or to think. She actually more or less admits it in her post. And that's fine. Everyone does not have time everyDay. And she's also a most lovable person. But still, and because of that, her post doesn't in any case earn that praise Wilwa makes of it. Which makes me wonder what the purpose of that praise was...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Talking about finding anomalies...
Oh my! That was the most un-educated and well, muddled up post I've seen for a while. I mean she totally messed things up, like talking about Boro's Hades-hints (which?) being an issue or generally just saying that most that we have actually achieved is suspicious.

It's clear Kath has not have time to read or to think. She actually more or less admits it in her post. And that's fine. Everyone does not have time everyDay. And she's also a most lovable person. But still, and because of that, her post doesn't in any case earn that praise Wilwa makes of it. Which makes me wonder what the purpose of that praise was...

That was kind of the point that I was ok with it. She clearly didn't have a lot of time to read or post, and yet still managed to at least somewhat touch on the big subjects. I didn't say that it made a ton of sense, just that I appreciated her effort, which is much more than other less active people have done. It was far better than just saying "oh, I have no time to even try and post so I'll just vote random".

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Here's a wacky idea that's zany. Maybe Zeus didn't want us to have a ranger (read, seer, because I'm an idiot and got distracted as I was typing) so we'd do the work ourselves. In that case, who would do that? Phantom?

I seriously doubt that, because he's made it harder for himself to win as well The only real motive he could have had for that is revenge, twisted though it is.

Since examining the comments and interactions of the known (and all but known) wolves is our best option at the moment, I remembered this from I think, yesterDay.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I feel like making a list:


Look good to me

Lalaith: I feel quite good about, makes good sense.
Kath: though she hasn't posted much I'm getting very good vibes, I especially appreciate her last post, she couldn't come on much but still was sure to cover basically every major topic.
Nerwen: though I get what Nog was trying to say, I'm going to give Nerwen the benefit of the doubt here, I really think it was just banter.
Rikae: just seems like regular Rikae to me

Obviously there's at least one packmate in her "looks good" list, very possibly two, but probably not all three of them. That would be a bit risky, even though Wilwa hadn't been under any major suspicion up to that time. Rikae is a wolf, leaving Kath, Nerwen and Lalaith. What she says about Kath could be noteworthy. More on that in a moment.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Under my reindeer/not enough posts

Tum
Nienna
Zil (but he's posted a lot, so I don't know why, just nothing has stood out I guess)
Lottie
Mira
Shasta

If there's a wolf here, the likelihood is that it's Nienna. I'm not convinced of it, but she looks worse than the other two. I feel pretty good about Mira, and really don't know about Shasta. I keep forgetting about him.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Iffy/Confused about, but not necessarily willing to vote for

Sally: I can't even explain why, it's purely a gut a thing, and the usual confusion that comes along with her.
Phantom: cause he's the Phantom, and ya never know with him. But he seems to be fairly logical, and I don't see what's so touchy about his posts. I really wouldn't want to get rid of a big poster though either. So I'll stick with being 'wary of' but not willing to get rid of yet.
Folwren: she seems to constantly be second guessing herself, or making it sound like we should overlook her posts or not take them seriously. Which I find fairly odd.
Greenie: plain and simple, I just have no idea.
Nog: mostly is quite reasonable, but he accuses tp of being touchy, and then seems quite touchy himself. And even though I understand his point about Nerwen, I just feel like he got overly sensitive about people not agreeing with him (even if there was some confusion about english curse words). But again, like the Phantom, I'd hate to get rid of a big poster so early.

I cut off her remarks on Steve, but they obviously don't matter. Hard to tell anything from that, except that she casts a bit of suspicion on Folwren with a specific point, which may make Foley look less likely as a mate. Or not.

The post from Kath that induced Wilwa to put her at the top of the trust list was this one:

Originally Posted by Kath

Warning: stream of consciousness.

The major Nog/Greenie/phantom argument is revolving around the idea of hints, yes? Basically, that hints were seen in Boro's posts, and it turned out that rather than the Hades hint that everyone leaped on being an actual hint, it was those relating to being the Seer that was in fact real. I'm not quite sure where I'm going here. It just feels like a lot of people are saying 'well look Boro's hints turned out to be truthful ... therfore Nerwen's and Mac's potential hints must also be right'. But Nerwen mentioned Hades not anything else (that I noticed - though I didn't notice Boro's Seer hints so that's not saying much) - and Boro's Hades 'hint' turned out to be nothing. I'm confusing myself. It just feels slightly hypocritical I think. If you'd been right about Boro hinting to be Hades you can't be right about Boro hinting to be the Seer and vice versa - he wasn't both. Also, whatever hints Boro may or may not have left, and whether he was the true Seer or the false Seer - it is likely we'll need more than the evidence from one Day to be able to read a huge amount into them.

In short (ish) - those who are focused so heavily on these hints seem suspicious to me. I know, I know that right now these are interesting and discussion-producing ... but the focus is causing these major ructions that are a beautiful distraction whether for the current loudmouths or for those who are quietly letting them get on with it.

Couple of questions probably aimed at the Mod - do we get any information in the narrations as to what has happened with the Mythomaniac? I think I saw that asked earlier but didn't see an answer. Will we know if we've not got more wolves? Also, there were questions about the Cobbler - is there a Cobbler as a separate role or is the Cursed pretty much a Cobbler?

Then there was the Eonwe/Dionysus business. I don't really know Eonwe's playing style. There are players who might well announce their role (within the boundaries of the game) Day 1 and sit back to watch everyone argue it out. Fea comes to mind. Is Eonwe that bold a player?

I'm glad those who were a bit quieter yesterDay seem to be back toDay and getting involved. In this game I don't think so many quiet players are likely to be lynched - Blind Guardian was probably a bit of an exception and unlucky to be playing in a game with so many veterans who just wanted to get on with it. That said, and despite my appalling hypocrisy here given I'm going to manage one post toDay, I hope the attention keeps up. Like I said, with loudmouths arguing it's too easy for quieter players to slip under the radar ... not actually that we have that many.

Anyway. Bedtime for me, especially as I'm starting to ramble. So from what I've said above my main suspects have to be Nogrod, phantom and Greenie. Nog and phantom have both reacted over-zealously, bringing emotion and sarcasm into play much more than Greenie which sort of logically makes me suspect them more. Nog I have seen act this way before. phantom I don't recall having done it. phantom is generally calm (as I recall) when suspected as a wolf, but I wouldn't put it past him to put on a show to negate that. Nog's 'do you read what other's post thing' I found quite odd and actually quite rude, and despite having seen him overreact in this way before this does seem to have blown up over two different ways of looking at a point - a dichotomy he has accepted in the past.

So:

++NOGROD

Nog quickly questioned Wilwa's trust for Kath based on that post.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Talking about finding anomalies...
Oh my! That (ADDED: Kath's post) was the most un-educated and well, muddled up post I've seen for a while. I mean she totally messed things up, like talking about Boro's Hades-hints (which?) being an issue or generally just saying that most that we have actually achieved is suspicious.

It's clear Kath has not have time to read or to think. She actually more or less admits it in her post. And that's fine. Everyone does not have time everyDay. And she's also a most lovable person. But still, and because of that, her post doesn't in any case earn that praise Wilwa makes of it. Which makes me wonder what the purpose of that praise was...

This was Wilwa's response.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

That was kind of the point that I was ok with it. She clearly didn't have a lot of time to read or post, and yet still managed to at least somewhat touch on the big subjects. I didn't say that it made a ton of sense, just that I appreciated her effort, which is much more than other less active people have done. It was far better than just saying "oh, I have no time to even try and post so I'll just vote random".

I was focused on Tum yesterDay, I admit, so I just took note of this mentally and moved on. Now that Wilwa's known to be a wolf, this ought to be examined.
Was Kath's effort worthy of her going into Wilwa's most trusted ranks? It does seem to stick out, in that Wilwa looks to have been waiting for a reason to praise Kath, who had been about as submarine-like as one could be.
Kath if I'm not mistaken though, is looking at a modfire toDay if she doesn't vote. And if she's a wolf, she's been extremely uninvolved with helping her mates.

x/d with a couple of Niennas and Sallys.

[Kath]

Are you kidding Inzil? I missed yesterDay due to busyness and ... ahem ... drunkenness. But I caught up on yesterDay and I know the rules - I'm not about to cause the player list to drop any further after toDay's happenings with a Shirriff AND our true Seer gone. The latter of which by the way ... what?! What was that about? We clearly have a maniacal Zeus or one who has decided they're not on the side of the village.

Plus my vote is obvious in light of Tum being proven right about Nog.

++RIKAE

I do need to read over things in more depth, but I'm around for the next three hours to do that - I just wanted to vote now so as to avoid any possible modfiring!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kath

Are you kidding Inzil? I missed yesterDay due to busyness and ... ahem ... drunkenness. But I caught up on yesterDay and I know the rules - I'm not about to cause the player list to drop any further after toDay's happenings with a Shirriff AND our true Seer gone. The latter of which by the way ... what?! What was that about? We clearly have a maniacal Zeus or one who has decided they're not on the side of the village.

Plus my vote is obvious in light of Tum being proven right about Nog.

++RIKAE[/B]

I do need to read over things in more depth, but I'm around for the next three hours to do that - I just wanted to vote now so as to avoid any possible modfiring!

As my last sentence indicated, I didn't conclude that you must be a wolf. As a matter of fact, looking over things myself the last half hour or so has given me another possibility about you.

[Kath]

I can't keep up this not doing lists thing so I apologise but that is what is coming in the next couple of posts as it will help me work out where we are right now. And hey it might be useful to some others too!

Known roles:
Blind Guardian - Aphrodite so Lover.
Boro - Hermes and false Seer (by default).
Eonwe - mortal.
Tum - Apollo and true Seer.
Nog - Poseidon.
Lottie - Artemis so Hunter.
wilwa - Hera so wolf and Lover.
Mac - Hercules so Shirriff.
Rikae - Ares so wolf (by Tum's dream).

Which means we have left:
Zeus - who is apparently not on the side of the village. Had the choice to kill, protect, see the role of a player or have an extra vote. Chose to kill the true Seer. Now powerless - should be an innocent from now ... apparently not.
Hestia - mythomaniac who is either true or false Seer.
Hades - wolf and Lover.
Persephone - Lover.
Demeter - protector of Persephone.
Hebe - only remaining Shirriff and so now just an innocent.
Hephaestus - wolf.
Pan - ranger.
Dionysus - cursed ... who as far as we know has not been turned?
Eros - Hunting Guardian.
Athena - Goddess of Wisdom.

Soooo, those who are actually evil and intending to harm the village:
Hades
Hephaestus
Persephone (possibly)

Those who potentially may be harmful to the village:
Zeus ... apparently.
Demeter
Dionysus - as they know they're the cursed they could choose to be on the wolves side.

Those who are definitely on the side of good:
Hestia - by now they must know if they're the true or false Seer and either way they're on the side of the village.
Hebe
Pan
Eros
Athena

Unknown roles:
Mira
Inzil
Nienna
Nerwen
Folwren
Lalaith
Greenie
Shasta
phantom
sally
Kath - putting myself in so this list tallies with the number of roles.

So, looking at those unknowns next.

[Nienna]

Foley:
24 – Lottie talks a lot, Nerwen seems sensible, Wilwa seems all right
30 – Doesn’t want to lynch Phantom; thinks Rikae’s idea of lynching the seer sounds dangerous
84 – Hunch that Kath and Nog are NOT among the lovers but if they are then they aren’t innocent lovers (for discussing the role)
96 – Votes Steve for trying but not succeeding at being natural

Day 2
420 – Doesn’t think we should kill Nog or Phantom

Day 3
756 – Thinks Nog and Nerwen (and their interaction) is suspicious but Nerwen more so than Nog (for gut feelings); thinks Tum looks suspicious; thinks Phantom still innocent; opinion of Sally uncertain; Mac’s distrust of Zil and Wilwa stands out.
834 – Can’t bring her self to vote Nog because she doesn’t mistrust him. Votes Lottie instead.
841 – Talks about possible nightly PMs. This post is the strongest that makes me think she’s not a wolf. I don’t know if a wolf would be daring enough to talk about possible PMs openly on the thread

Day 4
872 – Isn’t sure why people are sure Nerwen’s not a wolf I’m wondering the exact same thing… I’m actually becoming rather suspicious of Nerwen just from reading other people’s posts including Wilwa’s and Rikae’s; wishes Greenie weren’t gone so she could explain her suspicion of Mac

Conclusions: I’m thinking that she is probably not a wolf. Her posts and ideas regarding roles and wolves just don’t seem like stuff a wolf would say. This isn’t to say she’s not a very sneaky wolf but I don’t think so.

[Nienna]

List:

Inoocent:
Nienna

Leaning Innocent:
Foley
Sally
Mira
Kath

Unsure:
Zil
Lal
Greenie
Shasta
Phantom

Leaning Wolf:
Nerwen

Wolf:
Rikae

[Kath]

Right, couple of disclaimers. This takes hours. And with Day 1 being 8 pages (!!!) I'm not going to have time to do more than that. Now, you might say, why not look at later Days. Well, because I think that on Day 1 people are slightly less cautious - feeling more able to hide in early banter. By Day 3 with some roles revealed by kill/lynch and just generally fewer people hiding is not so easy. Also, we know the lynch toDay, so I have toMorrow to continue this. (Listens for groans of despair at that statement!)

Mira - thinks the hints being talked about were probably not serious. Repeats that Boro couldn't be Lover-hinting if Zeus. Refused to vote for possible hinters given what she said earlier - fair enough. Boro and Eonwe turned out to be innocent though, so this could be good cover for Nerwen if she and Mira are both wolves.

Inzil - "Singling out possible gifteds? You're clearly a wolf." To Rikae. Probably joking but possibly not if also a wolf. Supported Nog on suspecting Eonwe. Says Boro doesn't sit right, suspects Mac just because, and wants to vote BG for no substance. Pretty much going with the top talkers/suspects of the Day. The BG vote was the same lines as mine, I just wonder about it because Inzil seemed to have more reasoning for a Mac vote.

Nienna - ignores phantom, praises wilwa (for what?). Says Eonwe 'slipping' bears watching. Votes for Eonwe in case he's the Cursed. Well it's consistent.

Nerwen - please, tell me for my sanity, are you typo-ing Folwren every time deliberately? Hmm, and about Zeus says: "Well, I'd hope so, but some people will have it that a surviving Lover has automatically lost anyway" - so could be someone who if Zeus would want the village to lose. Defending herself against Mac using 'he only suspected me after I suspected him'. Didn't think Eonwe was the Cursed. Voted Nog as wasn't happy with the BG/Eonwe bandwagons.

Folwren - Day 1 felt bad about Lottie, thinks Nerwen sensible and wilwa seems alright. Defends phantom and suspects Rikae. Not sure Foley would mention packmates at all ... which makes me think fairly well of Nerwen. Voted Eonwe as he seemed to be trying to hard to be innocent.

Lalaith - under the radar to me. But: "many seem to have taken too freely of Ganymede's cups" - Dionysus hint? And: "particularly as Zeus himself is not whole-heartedly allied to the village" - our odd Zeus? Voted Boro because the vote 'could throw up something useful'. Need to check if that was ever explained - as in, did it?

Greenie - said wouldn't vote wilwa or Foley Day 1 and thought Nerwen innocentish. If Greenie were a wolf this would make me think Foley and Nerwen probably weren't. List post, only suspicions were of Mac, voted him. Clearly proven wrong now ... but then Gifteds often get confused for wolves.

Shasta - thinks Nerwen and Nog both innocent, Boro wasn't hinting, and votes Eonwe in case he's the Cursed. By the way what was the bolding on 'light of my life' about?

phantom - may not be our odd Zeus given his comment to Boro about not feeling too free about where to place loyalties. Also as when talking about lynching the Seer he says: "Quite right, it will keep him from leading us astray with his false dreams later on. Good idea!" And as he was talking with Boro about his Seer hints I'm fairly sure this means he thought Boro the false Seer. Not sure he'd be so blase about offing the true one. Plus he says: "If Hera dies, then isn't he at that point on the side of the village." Thinks Mac and Nerwen innocent. Also doesn't agree that Eonwe is Dionysus.

sally - hints toward maybe being an ordo. So you know what I hate? A post with 3 paragraphs about not being able to post properly and an edit ... that then contains an unexplained vote. Just saying. Anyway, votes BG without explanation - did we get one later?

Ok, posting this now. Thoughts in addition to those I've noted as I've gone to follow.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen - please, tell me for my sanity, are you typo-ing Folwren every time deliberately.

Nah, I kept reading her name that way. I only just realised the proper spelling. Sorry, Foley.

Now I just want to correct a couple of things you've said here:

Originally Posted by Kath

Hmm, and about Zeus says: "Well, I'd hope so, but some people will have it that a surviving Lover has automatically lost anyway" - so could be someone who if Zeus would want the village to lose.

No. People– starting with Rikae, I might add– have been reading evil plots into the fact that I said this– but at the time, the rules about the Lovers hadn't been clarified– that was the point of the discussion. I was worried that if Hera died, and Zeus had no way to win, he'd take it out on the village. (Which he did anyway, for some reason– and no, I wouldn't have done that, if it was me. I like winning.)

Originally Posted by Kath

Defending herself against Mac using 'he only suspected me after I suspected him'.

No– because he didn't start suspecting me until other people went after him because he'd said I could be Hades, then did nothing about it. Do you see the difference?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Those who potentially may be harmful to the village:
Zeus ... apparently.

Er... you call what he did "potential"?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Kath

Are you kidding Inzil? I missed yesterDay due to busyness and ... ahem ... drunkenness. But I caught up on yesterDay and I know the rules - I'm not about to cause the player list to drop any further after toDay's happenings with a Shirriff AND our true Seer gone. The latter of which by the way ... what?! What was that about? We clearly have a maniacal Zeus or one who has decided they're not on the side of the village.

Plus my vote is obvious in light of Tum being proven right about Nog.

++RIKAE

I do need to read over things in more depth, but I'm around for the next three hours to do that - I just wanted to vote now so as to avoid any possible modfiring!

Ping! Is this too obvious to be a Dionysus hint? (Like I should talk about lack of subtlety. )

[Folwren]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Ping! Is this too obvious to be a Dionysus hint? (Like I should talk about lack of subtlety. )

Why, yes, I should say so.

Kath's fairly experienced, isn't she? Any one who's experienced and who has the Dionysus role would keep quiet, lest the villagers suspect them and kill them beforet he wolves get to them. I mean, honestly. Who would throw it blatantly out there? "Kill me! Kill me!" No one is quite that sacrificial, even if they do want the villagers to win.

-- Foley

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Folwren

Why, yes, I should say so.

Kath's fairly experienced, isn't she? Any one who's experienced and who has the Dionysus role would keep quiet, lest the villagers suspect them and kill them beforet he wolves get to them. I mean, honestly. Who would throw it blatantly out there? "Kill me! Kill me!" No one is quite that sacrificial, even if they do want the villagers to win.

-- Foley

The cursed isn't evil until they're turned. We've not been informed that they're turned, so they're in effect still an ordo. Thus, it's not really "kill me, kill me".

Thus, if Kath is Dionysus, we shouldn't lynch her....yet. We need to keep an eye out for them, though, because if the wolves turn them we'll be in a bit of a pickle.

However, Kath's other posts have been appearing wolfish to me the more I look at them. She could be dropping fake Dionysus hints (or she could have thought Dun was Dionysus and was trying to hint to him....

POST INTERRUPTED. PARENTHESES BE....BE DEADED.

Kath's totally a wolf. No joke, she has to be. She hinted at Dun with the drunkenness so he'd know she was a wolf when he got turned last Night. Except he wasn't turned, he was killed.

PLEASE tell me this makes sense outside of my head?!?!

Crap. I have to go or I'll be late back to work. But I'm totally exploring this later.

[satansaloser2005]

Back to work.

I'll be back in....six hours or so, and will hopefully have a guess at everyone's role, blah blah blah. Oh, and Phantom?

You just lost the game. Jerk.

*hums Rick Astley, toddles off for now*