WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Boromir88]

Back and should be here til DL, or at least the normal DL. So, til 4, don't know if Legate's going to extend it or not...?

And I have to say I have no idea what I'm seeing, because I could have sworn I saw Nerwen vote for herself, which is why I acted so shocked by it. Wow...so let me just change this:

and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me,

to..

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nienna, Lottie are before me

And let your own imagination wonder why I'm seeing stuff that doesn't exist

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You have my sword.

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

I would prefer an axe or a stick of dynamite, so I can take a sample of ice and study how much glacial melt has been going on. But, a sword will do. Who says we can't multi-task on this expedicetion

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, the next person who makes an ice pun gets my vote. Seriously.


People, it's just rude to make such jests so close to deadline. I don't appreciate your flippant remarks and overall disregard for the game, especially when I'm trying my best to keep up with actual posts and then have silly ones thrown in my face. I'm getting sick of it.

In short, stop with the expedition/cold weather humor. It's not nice.

And now after that little emotional avalanche I need to chill for a moment.

[Brinniel]

Okay, while I don't like Bes's vote at all, I think it looks more like a newbie move than a necessarily evil one.

Boromir seems so sensible, I'm actually kind of scared he's actually a wolf. If he is, he's fooling me big time.

I won't vote Nogrod toDay since it's his special day and I'm not mean like Sally. I don't have a reason why I'd want to vote him anyway.

A Nienna lynch still looks too easy, so I won't support one for toDay.

Shasta has been itching up my suspicion list. It's not so much the votes, but some other comments. Like a couple remarks he made about me (both yesterDay and toDay). It's the way he suggested that some things I said look suspicious...like he was throwing it out in the open and waiting to see if anyone will take the bait (for example the 'slip,' and when others didn't he quickly backtracked). I also agree with whoever said that his response to Mnemo's role is a bit suspicious. I'm always wary of those who react like "oh, I guess I was wrong...oops" in the same way I'm always wary of those who are all like "yay for the ranger/hunter" whenever a gifted successfully does their job in the Night.

Eomer is also one I'm worried about. The timing of his vote could easily be wolf-on-wolf and I wouldn't put it past him to do that. His cool and relaxed manner also make me uneasy...almost like he doesn't care too much about which way the votes will swing. There's something about his behaviour that's just very sneaky.

I'd like to look more at Sally since I'm feeling rather iffy about her and her behaviour these past Days. Unfortunately, I don't really have time since I should be working on my school project now. I'm not eager to lynch her now since I'd prefer to look back at her posts first, but if it came between her and Nienna, I'd rather see Sally go.

EDIT: X-ed with a gazillion posts

[A Little Green]

Am I the only one who finds Sally's jump on Wilwa rather opportunistic? It looks like she noticed Wilwa is getting some votes and decided to go after her because of that. It's not that an ordo wouldn't want to save herself; it's that an ordo wouldn't try to make it look like she suspected the one she attempts to get lynched instead of her.

I probably won't have time to make another post besides this crappy one before DL (we're three players + the mod with two computers), and I'm a bit at a loss - rather like Nerwen, I have too many suspects right now. Sally is looking worse than she did, I'm unsure about Wilwa, and Eomer looks eerily like a wolf trying to push for the easy lynches (Sally & Nienna). I'm thinking about voting Eomer, Shasta, Pitch, or Sally. I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.

I'm now letting Nog post, will be back to vote and hopefully to post something else as well. Can't promise anything though.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Am I the only one who finds Sally's jump on Wilwa rather opportunistic? It looks like she noticed Wilwa is getting some votes and decided to go after her because of that. It's not that an ordo wouldn't want to save herself; it's that an ordo wouldn't try to make it look like she suspected the one she attempts to get lynched instead of her.

I probably won't have time to make another post besides this crappy one before DL (we're three players + the mod with two computers), and I'm a bit at a loss - rather like Nerwen, I have too many suspects right now. Sally is looking worse than she did, I'm unsure about Wilwa, and Eomer looks eerily like a wolf trying to push for the easy lynches (Sally & Nienna). I'm thinking about voting Eomer, Shasta, Pitch, or Sally. I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.

I'm now letting Nog post, will be back to vote and hopefully to post something else as well. Can't promise anything though.

Ahem. Did I say I'd go for Wilwa no matter what? No, I said if she was the best option I'd vote for her. Do your reading, little green one.

Originally Posted by lil old me

....I'm not exactly happy with Wilwa in general, so while she does make a very good point about Nienna I don't trust her. (I quoted this post because....well, I can. No, really though, I don't think she and Nienna would be wolves together in this situation. I know Wilwa's sneaky but I don't think she'd do this to a packmate without darn good reason.)

On the other hand, she's not going to be here for the rest of the Day so it's possible she could be a secret role (or another gifted, though that's unlikely). However, I wouldn't feel entirely bad about lynching her as I think she's looking very off. (Again, sorry I couldn't explain more. I wish I had time!)

So to sparknotes my sparknotes I'd say yes to lynching Wilwa, but only if she's the best option available. I'm going to see who else looks bad to me in a second.

Although thanks for bringing this to my attention; I clearly left out part of my sentence in the second paragraph. The reason I mention her being a possible gifted and being gone is so that, if she is, we remember she won't be around to defend herself. After all, one must be considerate even in Werewolf.

Anyway, back to the lynching board. I might have another look at Shasta.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'd prefer Eomer, actually, but if others don't like it I'm fine with any of the other three as well.

I'm eery of Eomer too, because of the reasons you've mentioned, it just seems like he's too concentrated on the easiest choices.

Here's my opinion though, you shouldn't vote for someone out of a little eery feeling, or just simple paranioa about getting played. Trust me, it is constantly running through my head right now that Mac has me right where he wants me, but that eery feeling isn't going to make me vote for someone who overall my instincts says is innocent, and has points of evidence to support it.

And here's another problem, there are so many suspicious looking people, we aren't agreeing on who looks the most suspicious. So, it looks like since someone like Eomer, who looks innocent, but when he doesn't have the same main suspect we do, it looks like he's got a sly and evil intention. However, the fact could be he honestly does believe sally is the most suspicious.

We should try to reach some sort of accord, because if all the innocents spread their votes around, than it makes the wolves pretty much able to pick who they want (assuming they haven't voted yet, but who knows?)

I've made my intentions clear, and the only reason I don't cast my vote now is I want to withold it in case there's any sort of wolf funny business towarsd the end. Any further analysis I do on wilwa is going to be biased, if you think she's not a good choice, convince me otherwise.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinn

I'm not trying to make people look like they're assuming one way or the other, but I did notice earlier in the Day that most players seemed to have Nienna at the top of their suspicion list, which is an indication of how toDay's voting might sway. And I'm concerned people will be too quick to jump on the most obviously suspicious person since more often than not they turn out innocent. I get the feeling that Nienna may be a mislead innocent, though I can't say I'm entirely confident about that since she has as a wolf managed to get away with some very suspicious stuff in the past. I don't care to see her lynched toDay, but would rather like to keep an eye on her.

You go deep and far and make it laborious to defend Nienna; looking at the reservations you seem to carefully put in every other place as if to not openly or actually defend her...

You "don't care to see her lynched toDay", but still you make awful lot about it trying to sway us from lynching her...

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDay

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'd bet that there are at least 2 wolves in her wagon.

(meaning Lottie-wagon)

To me that looks like a desperate try to sway the people from looking otherwise. I mean really, from the three Lottie-voters left she's ready to bet there are "at least" two wolves there? Hasty or evil?

And anyway, Mac seems to be speaking a lot of sense lately (I found myself nodding to his posts with reactions like "exactly", "just so", "that's what I was thinking"... so sense... )

Originally Posted by Sally

We can't really afford to lynch an innocent or a gifted toDay so I thought I'd steer you away from the wrong direction.

So you know the direction - and are an innocent at the same time?

And as bad as it might sound, yes we can afford lynching an innocent with sixteen players of whom only three are wolves (13-3). Let me put it the other way: toDay and toMorrow we can try things... after a few Days we can't afford mistakes. So we are not actualöly in the do or die -situation right now...

The vote by Bes looks really weird and I'm wondering how long should we give him the benefit of "newbie-doubt".

As Greenie said, we're sharing things here and so excuse my brevity (some will no doubt be happy about me not babbling for pages). Back soonish.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by me

It's the people who agree with me that I fall for.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I found myself nodding to his posts with reactions like "exactly", "just so", "that's what I was thinking"...

What the...? You don't really expect it to be that easy, do you?

About Brinn's defense of Nienna: I'm not sure whether a wolf would try to defend another very strongly nowadays. It leaves a trail back to you, and if you're unlucky, it'll end with two lynched wolves.

Possible Wilwa-voters are Boro, me, Sally, Nienna? That might be enough.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Possible Wilwa-voters are Boro, me, Sally, Nienna? That might be enough.

I was just thinking about getting it over with, now point in waiting around for a potential mess at the end. I'm set

++wilwa

If you guys botch it and do something foolish at the end, there will lots of wrath from me

[Thinlómien]

I don't really have the time to reread stuff I just read and comment on it and since there wasn't really anything THAT important, I think the easiest way to arrange my feelings is this:

THE REMAINING WOLVES ARE NOT AMONG
Lommy - obviously.
Greenie - just seems really innocent at this point, very genuine and independent-thinking and smart... if she's fooled me, congrats!
Boro - he just seems like his normal ordo self. Even the bad track record fits... (just joking)
Lottie - I think she's telling the truth. Boro had very good points about this.
Pitch - I don't know why, but I'm quite convinced he's an ordo. It's partly the stuff between him and Mnemo, and partly the simple fact he just doesn't give me any bad vibes.
Nerwen - see above. Although, I feel more strongly about her innocence, but she's fooled me quite brilliantly before.
Bes - his Lottie-vote made me raise my eyebrows a bit, but I think it's simply his newbieishness. His argumentation is faulty but sounds innocent.
Morsul - just seems very innocent although self-voting isn't exactly very helpful unless you're a wolf.

THE REMAINING WOLVES ARE AMONG
Eomer - he's a tricky one for sure. I agree with Greenie that his vote record far from proves his innocence (and I think he's exactly the kind of wolf to do even more shameless wolf-on-wolf stuff). But on the other hand, his new, very blunt manner is very nice and quite innocent-seeming to me. Quite tough.
Sally - I'm agreeing with whoever it was who said she's a sort of obvious target, but then again, no one is an obvious target without a reason. Half of her posts make me scream "GUILTY!" and half are quite ok. It's difficult (again).
Nienna - she really seems very bad to me, and I can't still see why voting me instead of Lottie makes her innocent (I think I explained why it doesn't). I'm only slightly afraid I'm biased because she's suspecting me so aggressively that it doesn't seem innocent (from my perspective).
Mac - he's difficult. Because, I would like to trust him and he makes a lot of sense, but his sort of jumpiness and grumpiness makes me wonder. I think he's also a quite probable wolf-on-wolf voter: he would be able to see when Mnemo's a lost case and use it to his advantage.
Shasta - just seems really bad, his tone is constantly very off to me. Possibly my main suspect. (He made things for himself a lot worse by reappearing because I had sort of half-forgotten about him before but then he came back and posted in this very wolvishly defensive manner...)
Brinn - I don't get why people generally suspect her so little. The few posts she's made toDay seem really false in tone to me, and while she was not trying to save Mnemo, she was definitely not for killing her either. She's been very nice to me all game and somehow I get the feeling that if she was innocent she would've suspected me by now...
Wilwa - I confess I haven't paid her much attention myself, but others have brought up good points against her. If she's guilty, she's quite a good actress but could probably learn a bit more about plotting (the Boro-vote thingy would've been pretty clumsy from a wolf.)
Nogrod - I don't really suspect him at all at the moment, but I can so well see him fooling me that I'm keeping an eye on him...

I could vote anybody except Nog from the latter cathegory toDay, but my preference would be Shasta or Nienna (or possibly Brinn or Wilwa).

[Thinlómien]

I didn't notice anything bad about Sally's "jump" on Wilwa, but her overall happiness to get anybody but herself to the block is sort of eyebrow-raising. Like, it seems that it doesn't matter to her who gets lynched if it's not herself.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I didn't notice anything bad about Sally's "jump" on Wilwa, but her overall happiness to get anybody but herself to the block is sort of eyebrow-raising. Like, it seems that it doesn't matter to her who gets lynched if it's not herself.

Well, if you were in sally's position right now, would you want to be lynched?

(And no offense taken to the bad track record comment, for all the aggressiveness and noise I let out, it mostly turns out the end result wasn't nearly as good as the ride. I'm like the demented guy on the street, that people can't help but hear, but would prefer if I was stuck in my own little corner)

Edit: crossed with many

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Well, if you were in sally's position right now, would you want to be lynched?

(And no offense taken to the bad track record comment, for all the aggressiveness and noise I let out, it mostly turns out the end result wasn't nearly as good as the ride. I'm like the demented guy on the street, that people can't help but hear, but would prefer if I was stuck in my own little corner)

Edit: crossed with many

What, are you trying to make nice with me now?

I'm just sayin'. Boro's gone from "Kill Sally! Kill!" to "well, I suppose I understand where she's coming from". Anyone else find it strange, or is it just me?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm just sayin'. Boro's gone from "Kill Sally! Kill!" to "well, I suppose I understand where she's coming from". Anyone else find it strange, or is it just me?

Considering that I went from "I feel good about you" to "KILL!!" to "you're probably alright" within one day...

[Macalaure]

My Internet has become funky all of a sudden, so I better get this out now than maybe never. There's no real reason to wait anymore anyway.

++wilwarin538

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

What, are you trying to make nice with me now?

I'm just sayin'. Boro's gone from "Kill Sally! Kill!" to "well, I suppose I understand where she's coming from". Anyone else find it strange, or is it just me?

Fine, next time I don't care what you have to say, I'll be so stubbornly pig-headed I'll refuse to admit when I made a mistake about something and lynch you anyway.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hi everyone. Made it back to see the fireworks go off.

Amused to see that certain people want to lynch me. There's not been a single reason other than "he feels like a wolf" or "his votes could have been wolf-on-wolf". I love how I'm being suspected for keeping my Mnemo vote til the end on Day 2: yes, I was hanging around til the deadline - what's wrong with that? I had still suspected Mnemo for pretty much the entire game.

One can easily say that any person in this expedition "feels" like a wolf: it's a nonsense, and completely meaningless. Might as well roll a die.

I'm happy that it looks like either wilwa, sally or Nienna is going to die: shows that the expedition hasn't gone crazy and is reverting to the simple decision.

If you want my adv-ice, don't bother with feelings. They're usually shaped by previous interaction with the other players and previous interaction has nothing to do with the players' roles in this game.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro - flipfloppy in #445, about wolf-on-wolf on Mnemo. Makes an assumptive generalization in #472 that I'm uncomfortable with. I will also note that though Boro thinks that a wolvish attempt to fenris one of their own is extremely unlikely (especially regarding Greenie), Mac's done it before and won. Suspicious of Wilwa for "deflecting suspicion" from [b]Mnemo[b] - I don't see it. Also, #482 is putting words in my mouth. I didn't jump on Nerwen's vote because I thought she was trying to save Inzil, I jumped on it because it would have killed Mac and I didn't think "dodgy reasoning" was a good enough reason to warrant that kind of vote. His point #2 in #491 is a load of bull (sorry, Boro, but it is) - when making a fake role, you (as a baddie) always want to be as "provably specific" as you can, because it's more believable. I have an example if you want one. (I was innocent at the time, but it still makes my point. ) Regarding #501, you should know by now that Nogrod has a grand old time playing devil's advocate. I actually wasn't suspicious of you until I began this Day 3 analysis, buuuuuut....

Eomer - considers Mac and Nogrod potential wolves, implies that Nerwen, Lommy, Greenie, and Pitch are all innocent. I felt odd about him Day 1, but this seems like a subtle attempt to remove some people from suspicion without actually coming out and saying same. My radar is bleeping, quite loud.

Lostie - #462, "most confident" in Nienna's innocence. Won't vote her today, though, on account of the reveal. #467 looks like it's in concert with Nienna to drum up different suspects, which seems off. I'm uncomfortable with her vote for Bes. I've noticed that it's been put out there that Lostie might be trying to pull a Ranger-protect in order to give the wolves a free kill - but why would the wolves sacrifice another of their own just to ensure a free kill, when there's an extremely low chance of a successful protect? If this were later in the game, it might be viable, but not with so many of us left.

Morsul - votes himself. Would a wolf do that? I don't see why they wouldn't. Not a definitive tell either way.

Brinn - a voice of reason in #469. However, there's subtle pushing against a Nienna lynch, which might tell us a lot. I still think there's some connection with Nerwen. Regarding #508 - just because you've acted a certain way in the past doesn't mean you can't change the way you act in the present.

Pitch - qualifier in #451. I've noticed he does this a lot, and it grates on me just a little. Wilwa notes that Mnemo concentrated on him and even voted him. I pretty much agree with Wilwa's assessment of him in #497.

Nienna - tried saving Mnemo two days in a row. Why didn't she vote Lostie instead of Lommy, though? Also, tries to make a bit of a mountain out of Nerwen's use of the word "dodgy". #466 looks like it's in concert with Lostie to drum up new suspects, which seems off. Makes me snicker wildly in #485.

Nog - #453 says a whole lot about what he thinks, without actually saying anything. Leaves a bad taste. Is silly and contradictory in #489, but it's not a major point. It's more amusing than suspicious.

Mac - is disappointingly aligned with Boro.

Sally - day 2 vote could have been a try at saving Mnemo. She also keeps semi-suspecting me for no reason, and I find that odd. Am I being set up for something? Example: #484, #488, and especially #515.

Lommy - I feel good about #483 (even if she does have me in the "probably guilty" category. ).

Nerwen - first vote for Mnemo. If I'm continuing with my line of suspicion, that's two wolf-on-wolf votes in a row... improbable. I'm starting to have a reversal on what I think of Nerwen, but it's been more because of Nienna's words/reactions than anything she herself has done.

Bes - apparently forgets there's a Ranger in this game? Probable newbieness, could have been instructed to play that up by a wolf partner? Vote for Lostie makes me nervous.

Wilwa - Something I've been meaning to answer for a while - Mnemo's #222 was a response to a question I asked earlier in the thread, about why it's bad to vote to save someone.

Greenie - Regarding #514: She did! What was I supposed to say? Also, I agree with her comments on Eomer in #535.

Note - I have only read to #537. I notice it's only about 13 minutes to deadline and I'd like to give people a chance to read the post I've been working on for an hour and a half.

Edit - formatting, and I probably X'ed a couple times.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Here's my opinion though, you shouldn't vote for someone out of a little eery feeling, or just simple paranioa about getting played. Trust me, it is constantly running through my head right now that Mac has me right where he wants me, but that eery feeling isn't going to make me vote for someone who overall my instincts says is innocent, and has points of evidence to support it.

The thing is, apart from the actually more-than-little eery feeling about him being a wolf pushing for easy lynches I'm uneasy about Eomer's (I constantly misspell him as Emoer) earlier votes. Yes, on Days 1 and 2 he voted for Mnemo, but in both cases it could very well have been wolf-on-wolf. The guy just stinks of wolf to me, is all.

I found myself agreeing with Lommy a lot - her opinion on Wilwa especially was quite exactly like mine. I know it's dangerous to feel good about people because you agree with them, but I do feel better about Lommy now. Nienna, on the other hand, is confusing me.

So, half an hour (a bit less, actually) till deadline, who to vote? I posted my favourite candidates in my previous post, but for the sake of healthy repetition: I'd like to lynch Emoer (see! Again!), Sally, Shasta, or Pitch. I won't object to Wilwa though I think we have better candidates. What about you others?