Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, here are the possibilities:

A. Rikae is telling the Truth. Legate is guilty. We should lynch him.

B. Rikae is lying. Legate is innocent. If we lynch him and he we find this out, then we will know for certain that Rikae is evil. GW and her crew can handle it that Night, or we can handle it the Next Day.

C. Rikae is lying about being the GW, but not about Legate. We should lynch him because we have a wolf.

If Legate is a wolf, then we can't know if A or C is correct. However, if he is innocent, then we get a definite answer on Rikae.

Sorry, my dear boy, but you've been Naughtily killing off our family. Shame on you.

[the phantom]

Nilp for Rikae
Lhuna for Sally
Izzy for Di
Rikae for Rikae
morm for Lommy

Hmm... that last vote was unexpected. I guess morm is a bit busy.

[Lalaith]

Or we could all do as Rikae suggests and vote for her.
Then we don't waste a possible innocent, and we'll know if she's a wizard or not. She's either telling the truth or she's on the evil team. Either way it doesn´t matter if she´s lynched.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Or we could all do as Rikae suggests and vote for her.
Then we don't waste a possible innocent, and we'll know if she's a wizard or not. She's either telling the truth or she's on the evil team. Either way it doesn´t matter if she´s lynched.

Yes, this is what I thought (or outlined by the post above), however, I would still really like to hear her speak. Also because of the fact that then it will be clearer for me, and I could directly say to you others: yes, I KNOW (and not just think, like now) she is lying.

To Roa (seeing the post in the preview window EDIT: I mean in 764): I am not calm, I am hyperactive, and am writing this in quite a hurry (just see how long the posts are). So it moved me in this way. But I wish to be as objective as possible, since Rikae has simply disappeared before she could see my questions - that's bad for this situation, as I said above.

X-ed with Lommy and Roa.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Okay, here are the possibilities:

A. Rikae is telling the Truth. Legate is guilty. We should lynch him.

B. Rikae is lying. Legate is innocent. If we lynch him and he we find this out, then we will know for certain that Rikae is evil. GW and her crew can handle it that Night, or we can handle it the Next Day.

C. Rikae is lying about being the GW, but not about Legate. We should lynch him because we have a wolf.

If Legate is a wolf, then we can't know if A or C is correct. However, if he is innocent, then we get a definite answer on Rikae.

Sorry, my dear boy, but you've been Naughtily killing off our family. Shame on you.

Hmm, I was afraid it would come to this, but see, in any case lynching me toDay will be a mistake, I can tell you. The question is, if we "lynch" Rikae and she turns out to be the GW, will it be acceptable as not that much of a loss - only a loss of a possible Wolf lynch we could have made instead - because she otherwise revealed (she claims), so no other things will stem from that lynch - but if it ends up with her saying it's me or her, then it's clear. Also, her self-vote... does not really, really make sense. If she's playing on sentiments, that would be a good move.

I don't still understand why she revealed though. I would most likely be for lynching her - but the first thing I would like to see would be, as I said, having her around to post.

[Roa_Aoife]

Legate, you seem awfully calm. Your last post, in light of the fact that Rikae is trying to get you lynched, seems terribly detached, as though you weren't the one in trouble.

My brains are... blegh, at the moment. Has anyone thought to do an analysis of Legate?

As a side note, hooray for the mad ammounts of analysis I've seen in this game!

[Cailín]

The Rikae grand reveal has confused me as much as the rest of you. I’ve been trying to organise my thoughts about it.

If she is the GW, which she claims, what motive could she have for revealing herself?

- She has not been scried, we know this. She may know the identity of the EW, though. She will challenge him or her tomorrow, as soon as she is able, and wants to help us kill a wolf for certain today.
- If she does not know the identity of the EW, she may prefer to lead us as a known innocent for one more day, or longer if the EW chooses to stay hidden. An interesting move, but not altogether ridiculous.

If Rikae is the EW, what motives could she have for revealing?

- The longer the wizards remain alive, the more of an advantage the EW would seem to have. A new wolf every night (likely enough). The EW will generally profit from staying undercover.
- She may have been scried and knows the GW is going to challenge her tomorrow. She has nothing to lose and wants this last opportunity to confuse and misdirect the village, by pursuing, for example, innocent Legate.

Will we find out if Rikae is good or bad by trying to lynch her, or will we just be sure she is a wizard? I suppose it matters not; the other wizard will know either way and act accordingly.

[Thinlómien]

What!?!!!?

I'm back and I'm baffled.

My initial reaction was that Rikae's revelation does not look credible, but also Legate's reaction to it was rather wolvish. So I'm rather mystified.

(Hmmm... It just occured to me that Rikae might be a very bold ordo trying to flush out Legate, but that would be quite silly as she'd cause more harm than anything good.)

There's something honest in Rikae's tone and her being the GW kind of fits well with Mac being the ranger and her being so dismayed at his death. On the other hand, like so many people have said this far, there was little reason for her to reveal. If there had been a reason, she'd surely have revealed earlier and explained it, if she really was the GW. That hastiness and confusingness combined with her rather weird behaviour earlier toDay makes me think she might very well be a wolf causing confusion.

Or then she's just frustrated with all of us for getting Mac killed, does not want to play anymore and is seriously overreacting. But I think she's more calms or sensible than that.

All in all, I'm confused.


edit: xed with Legate and Roa

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and I thought I'd mention this. Lalaith has been screaming EW to me in every single post of hers toDay.

I also just pondered the possibility of Rikae being the EW, but then she'd have very little reason to anything like she just did. Or not any reason I can quickly think of.


edit: exed with Roa, Di and Legate

[Thinlómien]

Di - that's a valid point but I can't see why she'd do that. I can't see any reason for wolf/EW Rikae to take such drastic means to take attention away from Cailín. Unless Rikae is a wolf and Cailín's the EW and Rikae knows her identity, but still that might seem a little... drastic? unreasonable? I mean, if I were the GW, I'd have scried Cailín already for a long time ago. She has a sort of wizardish air and I can't say she looks perfectly innocent. (Although, given the schizophrenia, I would really need to look at her more closely to judge her better.)


edit: xed with everybody since my last post

[Thinlómien]

Somehow Cailín saying "The Rikae grand reveal has confused me as much as the rest of you." does not sit right with me at all. That "me as much as the rest of you" sounds like she would know more about the matter, or hold a special role in this drama. Most of all, it really sounds like she's the EW...


edit: xed with Cailín and phantom

[Roa_Aoife]

If Rikae is the EW, then she wouldn't risk trying to save her wolf with such a ploy.

(See, phantom, now that I can apply personality, I can make a judgement on what the EW would do.)

If Rikae is a wolf, then it's highly unlikely she knows who the EW is, or who any of her fellow wolves are. And its even more unlikely she would try such a risky move to save them in either case.

If Rikae is the GW, then she may be trying to save the innocent Cailin.

And here's a possibility no one has thought of (intentionally, perhaps?): Rikae may be a gifted, posing as the GW under direct orders to do so, so we can finally have a known wolf in front of us. If she's not answering our questions, then it may be that she doesn't know the answer because the GW didn't tell her everything.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And here's a possibility no one has thought of (intentionally, perhaps?): Rikae may be a gifted, posing as the GW under direct orders to do so, so we can finally have a known wolf in front of us. If she's not answering our questions, then it may be that she doesn't know the answer because the GW didn't tell her everything.

Hey that's an excellent point. I think you just made me a fan of this theory.... it might make the most sense. (Although - even in that case, wouldn't she have done her "revelation" more carefully...?)

Anyway, I wouldn't be too worried anyway. We lynch either Legate or Rikae, and we know what the other one is. And ith good luck, we'll find a wolf.


edit: xed with Roa

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Somehow Cailín saying "The Rikae grand reveal has confused me as much as the rest of you." does not sit right with me at all. That "me as much as the rest of you" sounds like she would know more about the matter, or hold a special role in this drama.

Originally Posted by Di

The more I think about it, the clearer it gets.

Yes, yes... I'm feeling better and better about this. The people that I generally trust seem to be getting the same exact feeling.

All right- I've pretty much made up my mind.

Rikae is not the GW.

Roa, your thoughts are good, however there's one thing that could be going on if Rikae was on the evil side. Unfortunately I can't say what it is. Or I can say, but I shouldn't.

I want to say it really bad because it's absolutely brilliant (a compliment to Rikae for trying it and to me for thinking of it), but it could seriously play into the Evil team's hands if I were to speak it.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and I thought I'd mention this. Lalaith has been screaming EW to me in every single post of hers toDay.

That's another thing. But on the other hand, she suggests lynching Rikae, although quite plainly without much doubt, at least I find it unlikely for her to be a part of "conspiracy" . Now Lommy is saying this against her, so what if Lommy is part of the conspiracy too... For the sake of it, let me point out a (possibly overstrethed, I am aware) theory: What if Lommy is the EW and Rik is a wolf? It will make sense then when it comes to what I said above.

The thing, what Di says, about out-focusing from Cailín is interesting point.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy I quoted.

And I wanted to leave for now, at least for a while, but it's not quite good maybe at this situation, however... eh. But maybe if for a moment I leave, if no one has any things to ask me right away or something, I may.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I also just pondered the possibility of Rikae being the EW, but then she'd have very little reason to anything like she just did. Or not any reason I can quickly think of.

See my below response to Roa. The EW has way more reason to do this than an actual GW. The more I think about it, the clearer it gets.

Originally Posted by Roa

Or Rikae may be trying to save Cailin because Rikae is the GW an knows that Cailin is innocent. Don't be hasty on that front.

I'm not. If you'll see, I said that between Cailin and Legate, I find Cailin more evil. C and L had been getting the most suspicion, it seemed, with Rikae being gungho on Legate and phantom/Gwath being gun-ho on Cailin. The GW would want to step in to save good Cailin and get evil Legate lynched, but is that so wise? So early in the day? The GW loses more by revealing.

The EW (gains more by revealing, deflecting suspicion from a wolf, and getting the village to waste a lynch on an innocent or waste it on a Wizard who can't be killed.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

See my below response to Roa. The EW has way more reason to do this than an actual GW. The more I think about it, the clearer it gets.



I'm not. If you'll see, I said that between Cailin and Legate, I find Cailin more evil. C and L had been getting the most suspicion, it seemed, with Rikae being gungho on Legate and phantom/Gwath being gun-ho on Cailin. The GW would want to step in to save good Cailin and get evil Legate lynched, but is that so wise? So early in the day? The GW loses more by revealing.

The EW (gains more by revealing, deflecting suspicion from a wolf, and getting the village to waste a lynch on an innocent or waste it on a Wizard who can't be killed.

Di, stop and think. Wolves are replaceable. The EW would not do this to save a wolf. Especially not Rikae, who has totally agreed with me in that past about sacrificing our fellows. (I've been a wolf with her.)

The EW gains nothing by this move. If we lynch Legate, and he's innocent, then we know that she is evil, and she can't go on in secret making more and more wolves. Why risk a possible two or three or even four more wolves to save the life of one? It isn't logical, and it isn't the way Rikae thinks.

[Roa_Aoife]

Phantom and Di's exuberance in trying to turn this back to Cailin has me rather convinced. As Lommy said, it's simplest lynch Legate or Rikae. Lynching Cailin won't answer any questions for us.

I can think of two reasons the GW may have revealed:

She wanted to save an innocent.

She wanted to give us a wolf while everyone was still around to vote on the matter.

It's possible that both are true. It's also possible that Rikae is a gifted posing as the GW to achieve both these ends.

Phantom and Di's reluctance to accept that this is a possibility concerns me greatly. Especially phantom. Because that just makes want to believe in Rikae even more.

[Diamond18]

Oh wow!

I just had an idea.

The points Roa made about choosing between Rikae or Legate to lynch set off alarm bells in my head. Not directed at Roa, but at the fact that Rikae's reveal conveniently "forces" the village to choose between two options.

And Rikae revealed right around the time we were all discussing......

Cailin.

Yes, I'm still gnawing on that bone.

This makes Rikae's reveal look suspicious. To me. Because if I'm thinking between Legate and Cailin, well, I think Cailin looks far more evil. Far. More. Evil.

Rikae seems to be more about saving Cailin, when you consider her timing, and yet she hasn't actually said "Don't look at Cailin" cause the best way to get people to NOT look at a player is to make a big deal about another player. Capisce?

I really don't like how everyone's head has been turned away from talking about that. This narrow perspective of "well we can vote Rikae, and waste a lynch on a possible wizard, or we can vote Legate and possibly kill an innocent or happily kill a wolf" is just... makes my breakfast turn over in my stomach.