Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

You think I'd back out of a chance to get DAY-1 lynched in the year 2006+14? Especially in a game where death is not permanent?

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

(Also, 'not permanent'? A Dead player gets one vote towards giving one Living player two votes. Death isn't a 'you're out go away', but it's still pretty permanent.)

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

That's true... oh, except for the fact that they have to vote! I forgot about that bit in the rule! That time when they have to commit to something regardless of whatever digital ink has been used on their posts?

Woe is me, I have nothing but a vote tally and a NIGHT kill to analyse tomorrow. *sobs dramatically*

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

[Kath]

Another thought on the Medium ... potentially they could end up being chosen before they had voted. There are quite a few players who like to hold their vote until the very last minute (Shasta springs to mind) so some serious chaos could ensue. If anyone seems keen to get into the Dead Thread toDay I'd be more inclined to call Cobbler than Wolf because it looks like the potential for confusion is pretty high.

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, folks. I woke up super sick this morning. I have a conference call coming up shortly, so I'll be around for a wee bit, but then I'm going to try to sleep this off. I hope to be back before DL, but I can't promise.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kath

Another thought on the Medium ... potentially they could end up being chosen before they had voted. There are quite a few players who like to hold their vote until the very last minute (Shasta springs to mind) so some serious chaos could ensue. If anyone seems keen to get into the Dead Thread toDay I'd be more inclined to call Cobbler than Wolf because it looks like the potential for confusion is pretty high.

Don't know how to feel about this from Kath. NW being in the Dead Thread is just as effective at causing confusion, and this seems designed to deflect attention from that - but presumably the other wolves would be on board for a self-sacrificing NW.

Hmm.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

Not really; but I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. I was also hoping Kath might speak up again, to give me a bit more information about how she's thinking.

EDIT: And she has, shifting topics completely from her last 2 posts. Allowing for the usual Day One qualifiers, she certainly could be a wolf antsy about having a finger pointed at her.

As for you, Nilp, I feel like you've amped up the dramatics on this post. Still mulling over whether that means anything, but it's another point on the subjective chart.

hS

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Not really; but I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. [...] As for you, Nilp, I feel like you've amped up the dramatics on this post. Still mulling over whether that means anything, but it's another point on the subjective chart.

I've seen, ah, challenges to my WW, um, lifestyle over the years.

(To be fair, I did ask for a metagame refresher, since this is different from other games I've played, and did mull over the one game quirk my brain could wrap itself around. I won't poke beehives hoping for responses, because I used to be one of those empty beehives myself. )

[Rikae]

Thoughts:

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

At any rate, dead NW on day one wouldn't be a whole lot of use to the pack unless they have a very good lead on who the gifteds are. Their chances of success increase as the village shrinks and they have something to go on. I can't really see them just sacrificing themselves now, unless they're someone who's generally into that sort of thing.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

Not just initially!

This the rare Day where I'm at work (so no toddler), but nothing's going on at work, so I have time (and I'm arguably bored).

I agree with everything I've said so far, even of that sounds tautological--and even if you assert it isn't all self-consistent. I still think Day 1 is basically fumbling around pointlessly in the dark and its value is only to be seen after the fact. While I certainly do NOT recommend archive trawling as a prerequsite for playing, doing so would suggest this is not my first time expressing this opinion.

And I categorically reject any suggestion that it is bad to discuss wolf plans "preemptively." Should we wait until we're all in the Dead Thread? Is there a "too soon" period we have to wait out? I'm quite capable of going back to in-character posts, but I think if we limit ourselves strictly to those, we're going exacerbate my Day 1 Distaste.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And I categorically reject any suggestion that it is bad to discuss wolf plans "preemptively."

Not bad, just, in this case, not really useful. Wolves will sacrifice the NW, but also won't if they're a cautious pack (what's a cautious pack? Is there a consistent group of players who would always be a cautious pack?), but also will sacrifice a different wolf, but it's all pointless anyway, let's discuss how pointless it all is ... which is why I say "talking to talk". To be fair, everyone's doing that to some extent on Day 1, at least until someone waves a red flag.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Thoughts:

hS is a man on a mission. Not sure I agree with his conclusion on Form, because I don't agree with Form on discussing wolf plans preemptively. I suspect if the wolves decide they should sacrifice the NW to activate their powers, they won't particularly care whether or not we considered the possibility. It'll come down to how believable they can make the bussing. Form's response looks to me more like filling in the gaps after the fact to defend what was initially just talking to talk.

At any rate, dead NW on day one wouldn't be a whole lot of use to the pack unless they have a very good lead on who the gifteds are. Their chances of success increase as the village shrinks and they have something to go on. I can't really see them just sacrificing themselves now, unless they're someone who's generally into that sort of thing.

I don't really agree with this - using your powers with not much to go on is still better than not having them to use at all, IMO. You could always get lucky.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

That's true... oh, except for the fact that they have to vote! I forgot about that bit in the rule! That time when they have to commit to something regardless of whatever digital ink has been used on their posts?

Woe is me, I have nothing but a vote tally and a NIGHT kill to analyse tomorrow. *sobs dramatically*

............ Although... I don't see what you gain from perpetuating this banter chain. Do you think that somehow, with your remarks, you could reform me?

Pushing buttons in the manner Huin is likely to result in votes. In my own opinion, the NW wants to die early in order to get the most potential Gifted-blocks in; I've thought that since I saw the idea.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Very "a-HA!" of you. Hmm.

Yes, and I would have loved Nog to wolfishly overdefend after being 'a-HA'd. But sadly other people answered for him, so by the time he replied I'd already said that was my hope.

Which nicely leads on to:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?

To which I say:

1/ Several of your quotes were me talking to Formendacil, and explaining my disagreement with 'Day One is useless'.

2/ When I don't say why I'm asking weird questions, people start calling me on asking weird questions. I tried to split the difference between pushing effectively, and not leaving it weird to sidetrack people.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Pushing buttons in the manner Huin is likely to result in votes. In my own opinion, the NW wants to die early in order to get the most potential Gifted-blocks in; I've thought that since I saw the idea.

Unless people are playing very emotionally (and I don't think they are) , the people with the most relevant buttons to push are the wolves. I say getting reactions out of them is worth the risk.

Lots of cross-posts and coming up to bedtime; will look over the recent stuff and probably have to vote next time I post.

hS

[Rikae]

I don't think "playing differently than recent wolf-self" is that much of an indicator of innocence.

If I were a wolf twice in a row (I think that has happened? I don't know, it all blurs together) I would make very sure to do exactly that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hm. I need to nap. Much as I love holding my vote -

++Huinesoron

While I liked his answer to me re: pushing buttons, I don't have anywhere else I'm comfortable voting.

[Formendacil]

Back from work, but on my phone and toddler-adjacent, so I might not (probably won't) be fine-tooth combing the more recent posts.

It's good to see Shasta appear: he had what seemed like a comparatively high number of mentions for a previously absent player--granted, Day 1 tends to be more "this person is normally like this" than later Days, but it's still good to see SOMETHING pre-vote.

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally...

For some clarification on a "No vote."

It doesn't count towards the tally/not lynching someone. With mandatory voting I have it there as an option so no one is under threat of potential mod-firing for not voting. Sort of like an official vote, but not one that counts towards a tally/no lynch. That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

1 hour +5 minutes until DL

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For some clarification on a "No vote."

It doesn't count towards the tally/not lynching someone. With mandatory voting I have it there as an option so no one is under threat of potential mod-firing for not voting. Sort of like an official vote, but not one that counts towards a tally/no lynch. That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

1 hour +5 minutes until DL

I sense a moderatorly objection to the entire village choosing to not vote, but not an actual statement that such a tactic would be forbidden.

I will, of course, follow to rules, but if not forbidden, my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1. (I don't know if anyone has a database of WW history to prove me right or wrong handy).

Of course, now that I think it through, you'd have to have the entire village onboard for this to work as a STRATEGY, and that'd be herding cats (especially this late in the day).

Doesn't help me decide where to vote though...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

What if we all abstain and have a nice picnic and a bonfire? Mac and I have S'mores fixings we're happy to share!

Oh yeah ... werewolves.

[Nogrod]

Well, it really has been quite uneventful Day. Things to take hold on to seem to be few and far between.

Form and Nilp toy with their roles both in their own ways. But neither "I grow hair and eat children for breakfast" or self-voting (especially in case of Nilp) doesn't seem to say that much to any direction.

hS I commented on already about his over-eagerness to show himself to be a good guy. Also the over touchy-feely reaction to a few remarks by Kath and Lottie does look a bit strange. And I do agree with Rikae, that playing differently than when a wolf in the last game hardly is an argument (rather it should be the default setting).

Pitch's leather boots do add on to Nilp's usage of the boot-icon, but that also feels a bit weak as a cause for a vote to say the least.

There's really very little to go on. But we still have one hour to go and maybe the stakes will start rising?


EDIT: X'd with a lot

[Loslote]

I don't really want to lynch Huin toDay, I've gotten a general innocent vibe from him. I agree with others that Form, Pitch, or Nilp could have potentially been cobbler hinting, though I would say the Nilp hint was a little more ambiguous. I'd be okay with voting for Form or Pitch, but I'd rather vote someone I think is a wolf than someone I think is a cobbler.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Don't you dare, or I will vote for YOU.

Seriously, abstaining from voting is about the stupidest approach one can have to this game if innocent. The vote is the only weapon we have. Sure, it can misfire. But you should certainly NOT abstain if innocent, that just makes the wolves' (and the cobbler's) votes carry more weight. (Sally I understand because she's sick and unable to keep up, but no such excuses for anyone else.)

I agree with this. No one has super strong suspicions right now, but a wolf would love either a) for the innocents to not vote, so that the wolves get to pick who dies and they don't have to worry that it could be one of them or b) for the wolves to not have to leave a trail by voting for an innocent. No voting doesn't help the village at all.

[Blind Guardian]

I have a question. Is there any way the Wolves can just kill the NW on a Night of their choosing? Instead of killing a villager, can they kill their own? That would give them control over when the NW enters the Dead Thread.

X'ed with a lot

[Nogrod]

I think Greenie has a point in intrepreting Pitchwife's comments on Nilp.

Originally Posted by Greenie

So we shouldn't suspect Nilp but shouldn't defend him either because both are "terribly easy"? Just give him a free pass and not try to read anything into what he says and how he says it - except isn't that kind of the same thing as "defending him because he'd do that no matter what he is"?

Then again, I don't understand this at all.

Originally Posted by Legate

But if we do have a quiet Cobbler, the WWs themselves may also be less bold.

Now how are the two parts of the argument related? That if we do have a quiet Cobbler, then (and only then?) it is possible the WW's are also less bold? But if the Cobbler would be loud again, then the WW's would also be loud for certain?

Okay. Maybe it's a language issue (and it could be on my part as well), but someone willing to make people think the wolves are mainly on the quiet side of the village might formulate the message thusly?