WW LXXXIX: The Terror of Tol Fuin

[Inziladun]

It was the year 952 of the Second Age of the mortal lands of Arda. In Númenor, the Land of the Star of the Edain, Men lived in bliss scarcely less than that of the Eldar of Eressëa.There was peace and prosperity.
With peace though, may come boredom, and that has ever been so for the race of Men. Those of Númenor who desired adventure, having no enemy upon which to wage war, exercised their minds and energies as mariners, sailing north, south, and east.
Many coasts they had visited since the time of Tar-Elendil, the fourth king. During his reign, the shores of Middle-earth had first been reached by a ship from Númenor. His grandson, Tar-Aladrion, had before he took the Sceptre begun the Guild of Venturers, to which those who would sail the ships belonged. It is in his reign that this tale begins.

************************************************** **************************************************

Inziladun of the Guild of Venturers had spent over half his life sailing the Sea. He had gained the esteem of his fellows, becoming a captain. Interested in old tales and lore, he knew the story of Túrin Turambar well, and of the legend which said the graves of Túrin and his mother, Morwen Eledhwen had remained above the waters at the breaking of Angband which had ended the First Age. The voyage to Middle-earth he had made several times, but it came into his mind to wonder why he never before had thought to try to find the island where the graves must be. He had heard from the Eldar in Lindon that there were indeed three islands to the northwest of their harbour of Mithlond, though none of them had made the journey.

"The resting place of Túrin the Hapless should be unmolested by us," they had said. "South we go, but mostly West, when those of the Elves here on the Hither Shore give in to the sea-longing and desire to return to Aman."

At length, Inziladun resolved to attempt the feat, recruiting other mariners of the Guild. It did not take long to find many willing to go with him. Now he had only to gain the blessing of King Aldarion.


************************************************** **************************************************

Three weeks later, the spring sun shone on a lonely ship at Sea.
King Aldarion had made no bother about the proposal, saying to Inziladun that he only wished he could accompany them. Now, fifteen people altogether had embarked, their destinaton, Tol Morwen.

The weather had thus far been fair. Now, though, ominous clouds had begun to appear on the north-western horizon. as the sun began to set. The dark clouds appeared to be blood-stained, and the crew nervously joked about that hopefully not being an ill omen.

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DO NOT POST HERE YET

[Inziladun]

As the light faded, the clouds grew darker. Bright shards of purple lightning rent the sky, and thunder boomed overhead. The wind began to pick up, and whitecaps surrounded the ship. The seas grew heavier by the minute, and the mariners were hard put to it, as heavy rains lashed them unrelentingly.
Around midnight, a roaring noise was heard in the darkness, and all feared a waterspout had come to finish them. Some prayed to Uinen that she might have pity on them, and restrain her husband Ossë's wrath.
Suddenly the lookouts cried out in alarm. A dark line of jagged land had appeared before them. The winds had dismasted the ship, and the crew was helpless to steer. With a tremendous tearing noise, the ship shuddered violently, and the mariners watched in horror as water began to pour into the holes sharp rocks had torn into her keel. Nothing they could do would save her. Leaping overboard, they swam desperately toward the shore, hoping luck would see them safely through the piled rocks protruding from the surf.

************************************************** **************************************************

Dawn's light grew on a desolate beach. The crew lay hither and yon, sprawled wearily out of reach of the tides which pounded and roared. The storm seemed to be ending, though. Slowly, they took stock of one another. All but one were found to be all right, if sore and very bruised. Inziladun, though, had broken his leg. He had been the last to leave the ship, and had leaped into the waters very late, landing on a large rock. Bone protruded from the limb, and he was unable to stand.

As the light increased, the crew could see high cliffs, topped with trees. They had no way of knowing just where they were. In the night, the wind had shifted many times. The ship was nowhere to be seen, though debris could be seen in the water. Their stores had been lost, and the first order of business was to see what there was on the island of food and drink.

Leaving Inziladun as comfortable as possible, they scattered to explore the place, some in twos or threes, and some alone.

DO NOT POST YET

[Inziladun]

Some of the crew found things the did not expect.

Three of them had wandered several miles from the shore onto a rocky hilltop. Losing xyr footing, one slipped with a cry down the side of the hill. The other two rushed to the edge and looked down in dismay. They were relieved to see their comrade lying by a crack in the wall near a large boulder, only 10 feet or so below. Their eyes were held by the opening in the rock, for a greenish light appeared to be emanating from it, looking in the dim sunlight almost like a living thing. The two above carefully jumped down, even as the fallen one got to xyr feet. Looking at one another, they passed in soundless agreement past the opening into what appeared to be a large cave. How big it was they could not guess, for the light outside did not reach to its walls, and the green light did not seem to illuminate much. As they looked, dark mists began to swirl around them, forming themselves into man-shaped figures. The three companions were alarmed, but before they could act, the misty figures rushed toward them, and the last sounds they heard were of evil, screeching laughter.

A short time later, three figures emerged from the cave. They looked the same as those who had entered, but the minds inside them had changed. The cave had been a lair of evil spirits of Taur-nu-Fuin, and when the Valar had assailed their lord's fortress of Angband, it had been their refuge. They knew the minds of their prey, and had all their memories. They knew others were here, and after so long with no sport, their thoughts were filled with the desire for carnage. They smiled grimly, as they began to make their way back to the others.

************************************************** *************************************************

Another of the group, having gone in a different direction, found something as well. Xe had walked long, but had found a small stream that would serve for water. While drinking xyr fill, xyr eyes glanced upon a small, green stone by the water's edge. Somehow, the stone gave xem confort, and xe pocketed it. It looked like an elf-stone, and maybe it had been dropped long years before by one of the Eldar in the place, by chance or not. Xe felt somehow that it could aid xem, but something told xem to keep it secret.

************************************************** *************************************************

There was good news, when all had returned to the beach. Not only had water been found, but there were nuts and wild berries growing. Also, some had the knowledge of how to make snares for animals, and all could construct nets to catch fish. They could perhaps survive here long, and perhaps even build some sort of vessel eventually. Some of their tools had been washed ashore, and they took those gladly. As the Sun once again began to sink, they thought at least that things were not as severe as they might be.

************************************************** *************************************************

IT IS NOW NIGHT 1.

Baddies may PM. Seer send a pick.

The living:

Inziladun (Mod)
Bom Tombadillo
Nogrod
Shasta
Kitanna
G55
Sally
Eomer
Nerwen
Loslote
Greenie
Lommy
Nilp
Mithalwen
Legate

[Inziladun]

Night had fallen on the island. After eating what they could find, the stranded crew talked among themselves, of the plans for the coming days and weeks, of how they might use materials there to build some craft that would take at least some of them to the coast of Middle-earth, where they could hope to obtain help from the Eldar. Inziladun was in great pain. The bone had put back into place by one of the crew more skilled in medicine, and the wound washed, but no athelas could be found nearby, and they despaired to find it there. As night grew later, they found themselves places in which to bed down, some on the beach, others farther inland.

************************************************** **************************************************

As one of the crew lay down, xe thought again of the green stone xe had found. Making sure that no one else was near, he took it from xyr pocket and gazed at it. The stone still gave a sense of comfort, and some vague feeling of insight. Xe put the stone away again, and closed xyr eyes.

That night, the most vivid dreams came to xem. A vision of one of xyr mates here on the island came before xem, and it was not only their physical form, but the secrets of xyr heart as well. It was a dream, and yet more, and xe felt certain the stone had called to xem alone.

************************************************** **************************************************

Late in the dark night Inziladun awoke. The pain he felt made it impossible to sleep, and he had dozed only fitfully. Now, though, he felt it was something more than the wounded leg that had awakened him. He lay there motionless, confused, straining his senses. There was sudden movement behind him, and in alarm, he tried to move quickly to his feet, causing a monstrous bolt of pain from his leg. He collapsed back to the ground, sweating and gritting his teeth. But now three figures stood before him, and relief swept him. It was only some of the crew. Laughing bitterly at his own foolishness, he started to ask them if anything was wrong. It was then that a swift blade was drawn, and plunged down in a deadly arc. The dagger pierced his heart, and with his last sight he saw their faces, their eyes now burning red, and he thought he understood, and knew now where his voyage had finished.

************************************************** **************************************************

At the dawn, several of the marooned Númenóreans began to awake. One of the first things on their minds was to check on their fallen captain. When they found him, their cries echoed wildly, and soon all fourteen of them were at his side.
The captain lay dead. Blood covered the body and the ground beside. At the captain's right hand, etched into the sand, were the words "three crew" and "evil". He had apparently been trying to write more when he had succumbed to his injury.
And the Sun rose, lighting the ghastly scene for all to see.

IT IS NOW DAY 1

Cease all Nightly activities. Everyone may now post.

The Living:

Bom Tombadillo
Nogrod
Shasta
Kitanna
G55
Sally
Eomer
Nerwen
Loslote
Greenie
Lommy
Nilp
Mithalwen
Legate


The Dead:

Inziladun (Mod)

[Bom Tombadillo]

*grumbles* Stupid Daylight Savings Time. I've been checking this for an hour already.

[silence]

. . .

[silence]

Um. Please don't kill me, kthxbai?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

All right, now, I have this problem.

Most of you know what I'm about to do. Heck, even probably those people I'm playing with for the first time know what I'm about to do.

You're about to miss DAY 1 again?

Oh, shush, Adam. I thought you were dead.

I won't be 'til you are. So die already.

Right. Anyway, my problem.

How do I make something so banal and predictable seem fresh and exciting once more?

Oh, I know.

Eomer of the Rohirrim, I challenge you to a duel to the death.

At least I get to keep the initiative on my side, right.

Oh, just get it over with.

Not yet, fool. Not yet.

[satansaloser2005]

All right then, to business. Here are some facts to keep in mind.

I am an ordo.

I fully intend to win this game.

I have to be done with this game by, if not before, July 6. If we're not done by then, I'll have to withdraw.

I've never withdrawn from a game before. I have no desire to do so now.

If I don't withdraw, I'll have to be killed at some point (or modfired, which also has never happened).

Statistically, if I'm killed as an ordo, the village cannot win. (The only exception to this is a tie.)


Therefore, we need to kill all the werewolves before the sixth. If we don't, we don't win.



Let's get dangerous.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Interesting points, Sallykins.

Ooh, ooh, I know.

How about we off you now, eh, Wolfie?

55th Galadriel, you know what I'm about to do, right? Right?

Oh, brother.

So, what, are we gonna play this game by consensus?

I dunno, Alice; I never got to pick a role.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

55th Galadriel, you know what I'm about to do, right? Right?

Turn on the italics thingy.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

How about we off you now, eh, Wolfie?

After you, my sweet.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Turn on the italics thingy.

Hey, hey, this is the first time I've done this in-game, right?

Second for me--I was in Sally's game.

Fourth. That (ugh) 5th WW, the 2nd Duelling Wizards, then the rest with Alice.

I see. You guys show up a lot.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

After you, my sweet.

No, no, dear, see, whenever we play, you're always evil--yes, even that game where you were the Moddess Goddess.

Therefore, since dice have memories, stored in a supercomputer hidden in some secret location, you, my love, are evil once more.

[satansaloser2005]

Dun didn't use dice. He said so himself.

I'm sorry, my dark prince, but I've clearly caught you in your own web of lies. Care to surrender?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I have to be done with this game by, if not before, July 6. If we're not done by then, I'll have to withdraw.

So we know for sure if we're still a struggling village looking to kill some wolves by the 6th Sally is out. Why bother telling us this? If she's an ordo she can't protect, dream of, or kill anyone. She can only vote. Of course we're out one vote which isn't good, but at this point in the game why bother saying anything?
1) She's a gifted and she wants to ensure her survival so we can get as much use out of her as possible before her inevitable death.
2) She's a wolf and she wants to ensure survival under the guise of innocence by her self-possessed "this village can't win with a dead ordo Sally"
3) She's a foolish villager who has now left herself open for attacks at night.

Sally pretty much signed her own death warrant with that post anyway you look at it, but she wants us all believe we can't win the game as a village without her.

Statistically, if I'm killed as an ordo, the village cannot win. (The only exception to this is a tie.)

And so I declared shenanigans on this idea earlier. If Sally really is innocent, gifted or ordo, there's a good chance the wolves will take advantage and get her in the Night. I doubt she'd be foolish enough to say anything if she was a gifted. I might think the same thing of her being a wolf if she had stopped after saying she had to withdraw on the 6th. The second half of her post looks awfully suspicious to me. Still, there's doubt, it's a bold move to make, especially so early on Day 1 and in such a small game.

Moving on...

If they are, then I'll be voting for DeathWish!Sally until such time as further evidence is presented.

What? Who does that? Mith and Nerwen both commented on this. And I'm inclined to agree this is pretty shifty work. If you're unsure of Sally and are only doing it as a mercy-killing why not wait until Day progresses? Very little had actually been said yet and he's already heading down this road. And more alarming he is only using her to hold a vote until he digs up someone else to vote for.

I can understand suspicions of Sally, but simply killing her because she's going to die seems pretty wolfish. It's almost like "she's admitted she's an ordo, best to get one villager out of the way by Day and another by Night."

So my suspicions lie with Sally and Bom.
If Sally is a wolf she's making a daring move early on. If she's innocent she will probably become a midnight snack. She doesn't want to withdraw and that's understandable. The game has just begun though, perhaps her plea of innocence was premature seeing as at this point it's anyone's game. She has painted a target on herself whether innocent or guilty.

If Bom is guilty he's trying to steer votes to Sally under the guise of a mercy kill to keep conversation of away from him and his cohorts. He's hardly started a bandwagon or anything, but a wolf could keep all eyes on Sally today so the real threat is forgotten. Notice he doesn't say he thinks she's a wolf or an innocent. If he's innocent he was very bold and foolish to suggest voting for Sally just because she had to be gone by the 6th.

[satansaloser2005]

Ah, but you see, dear Kit, if the wolves try to kill me in the Night, they won't be targeting one of the gifteds. So not only have I now made the announcement of when we'll need to win the game by very clear, I've created possible confusion among the wolf pack.

A wolf pack which I now believe you might be a part of, precious.


Ain't life grand?



And now, a list!

Possibly evil (by basis of reacting suspiciously to my post):
Kit
Bom (depending on whether or not he was entirely joking, and even then)
Nerwen (for defending-ish me far too quickly for Nerwen)

Possibly evil (by basis of record):
Nilp
Mith
Nerwen
Kit
Lottie

Possibly evil (by basis of being insane):
Everyone

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

So we know for sure if we're still a struggling village looking to kill some wolves by the 6th Sally is out. Why bother telling us this? If she's an ordo she can't protect, dream of, or kill anyone. She can only vote. Of course we're out one vote which isn't good, but at this point in the game why bother saying anything?
1) She's a gifted and she wants to ensure her survival so we can get as much use out of her as possible before her inevitable death.
2) She's a wolf and she wants to ensure survival under the guise of innocence by her self-possessed "this village can't win with a dead ordo Sally"
3) She's a foolish villager who has now left herself open for attacks at night.

You failed to notice (or purposely ignored) the fact that one ordo can make a difference in the outcome simply by being alive.

I don't think that Sally would have endangered herself that much in her first post if she has a special role. However, I see what you mean about Bom. He's really pushing a sallywagon, or trying to.

Kit is #2 on my suspision list, for saying that Bom is pushing a sallywagon and pushing it herself yet further.

Originally Posted by Kit

Sally pretty much signed her own death warrant with that post anyway you look at it, but she wants us all believe we can't win the game as a village without her.

But no wolf will kill her after your post! That would be so obvious! The only explanation I could come up with is that you are a wolf who speaks while plotting who will be the first victim. And you're debating about Bom to make yourself look unconnected to him.

Very likely of being baddies:
-Bom
-Kit

Edit: xed with Sally

[satansaloser2005]

There are only eight hours left in the Day, people! Let's get cracking!

[Galadriel55]

I'm so confused with the time zones. I'm supposed to be in -5 but with all the daylight savings and whatever it's -4... BD should have a clock independant of all the time differences!

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

There are only eight hours left in the Day, people! Let's get cracking!

Don't put off posting until the last hour!

Sheesh, I thought this thread will be more active...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

You failed to notice (or purposely ignored) the fact that one ordo can make a difference in the outcome simply by being alive.

I don't think that Sally would have endangered herself that much in her first post if she has a special role. However, I see what you mean about Bom. He's really pushing a sallywagon, or trying to.

Kit is #2 on my suspision list, for saying that Bom is pushing a sallywagon and pushing it herself yet further.



But no wolf will kill her after your post! That would be so obvious! The only explanation I could come up with is that you are a wolf who speaks while plotting who will be the first victim. And you're debating about Bom to make yourself look unconnected to him.

Very likely of being baddies:
-Bom
-Kit

Edit: xed with Sally

G55, this is the most suspicious thing yet posted. (Welcome to WW, by the way )

Defending Sally, exaggerating Bom's words, and painting Kitanna as hypocritical (which was not my interpretation of Kit's post). I don't quite see why you did all three of these things.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Defending Sally, exaggerating Bom's words, and painting Kitanna as hypocritical (which was not my interpretation of Kit's post). I don't quite see why you did all three of these things.

I'm hoping she's just being a newbie and has picked me to latch onto for the game. I know I'll have to keep an extra close eye on her, as I tend to forget about people who seem to agree with me, and that can be quite the fatal mistake.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55 has defended Sally about three times!

I believe that was only one time, the other two just explaining my reason for it farther...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

G55 - wouldn't believe it's her first game, she's so sharp.

Thank you!

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

G55, this is the most suspicious thing yet posted. (Welcome to WW, by the way)

Defending Sally, exaggerating Bom's words, and painting Kitanna as hypocritical (which was not my interpretation of Kit's post). I don't quite see why you did all three of these things.

Answered Greenie's similar question bout it in #57.

Originally Posted by Loslote

The only hunch I've got so far is an ickle little one about Galadriel

And which one would that be? That I am suspecting Kit, Bom, or that I think that Sally is an innocent?

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

++Galadriel55

So you'll remember me forever as the first person ever to vote for you in Werewolf. Har!

I won't forget about it next game.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Seriously: too much defending of Sally, too much attacking Bom and a weird interpretation of Kitanna.

So one defense is too much? And I'm not the only person to suspect Bom. Kit makes more sense to me now - after a couple more posts - but at that time she didn't.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I rather don't like how she tries to make a simple omission look evil, and with an argumentative tone...it's not like she's wolf-hunting, more like wolf-inventing.

Paranoia? Point taken.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Galadriel is actually scarily supportive of me.

Yes, seeing as I don't want you - an innocent in my books so far - be lynched. I don't know if I've been that "scarily supportive". I think I've only made one point that you don't look like a wolf, and everyone jumped on it, making me repeat it.

Edit: xed with a host...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I believe that was only one time, the other two just explaining my reason for it farther...

I believe he counted it as three times that you defended Sally. Three seperate posts and all that. And it isn't just the defending, it's the way that you had been so convinced of her innocence. The only way you could have known that would be if you knew she wasn't a packmate of yours - the other way you could have known that, it'd have been too dangerous to flaunt your certainty quite so loudly. You've backed off now some -

an innocent in my books so far

- but still.

And which one would that be? That I am suspecting Kit, Bom, or that I think that Sally is an innocent?

Not quite - the hunch that you've grown fur where you oughtn't have.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

>.<
Loslote
Galadriel55
Lommy
Kitanna
Bom

<3
Mith
Greenie
Eomer
Legate

???
Everyone else

Oh, dear, no time.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

++Nilpaurion Felagund

Highlights, sir!

EDIT- Never mind. Atta boy!

[Thinlómien]

Mith - I xed.
Legate - I was wondering how it will make the outcome of the day.

[satansaloser2005]

++Galadriel

[satansaloser2005]

Oh flipping come on. It took over a minute to post that?! >.<



Edit: x'd, sorry

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Oh flipping come on. It took over a minute to post that?! >.<



Edit: x'd, sorry

You're excused, I suppose.

Stand by for swift results.

And 4000 posts! *pats self on back*

[Inziladun]

Although the unlucky Venturers did not know exactly what had befallen, the meaning of Inziladun's scrawled final words seemed clear enough: some of their number had turned, or had been turned somehow to evil and murder. Long they debated about what their next course of action should be. They knew that they could count on no help from any quarter. The nearest friends of the Edain were the Elves of Lindon, but they did not know of the plight of the Númenóreans, and there was no means of communicating with them, even if the mariners had known exactly where they themselves were in relation to the coasts of Middle-earth. There was only one thing to do: the identities of the killers among them must be discovered, and the threat removed from the rest by killing them in turn. Then the arguments turned toward who among them was acting the most suspicious, or out of character. At the end of the day, it was decided that Loslote was the most likely to be evil. They determined to kill her by hanging, since trees were certainly in abundance, and rope from the wreck of the ship had washed ashore.
The preparations were made swiftly. The noose was placed around Loslote's neck, and she was made to stand upon some piled rocks. They were kicked out from under her, and the crowding sailors watched to see if some change would come upon the one they'd chosen.
As the body grew still, they were shocked to see a grey, misty figure emerge from it and float into the air. It seemed to point at them all, marking them with helpless malice. Then it seemed to simply melt away before their eyes in the light of the setting Sun, and the air was clean again.
Darkness covered the island once again.

The Living:

Bom Tombadillo
Nogrod
Shasta
Kitanna
G55
Sally
Eomer
Nerwen
Greenie
Lommy
Nilp
Mithalwen
Legate


The Dead:

Inziladun: (Mod)
Loslote: Evil Spirit

IT IS NOW NIGHT 2

Evildoers may PM. Those with picks send them in.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by G55 about me

´An hour before DL she still didn't have any solid opinions on anyone, which is quite strange, because there has been enough going on yesterDay. She said that "none of the arguments really convince" her in #128. She was very quick to jump on Shasta's reasoning - right he was to suspect Lottie as we know toDay, but how would I have known yesterDay? - in #140. Moreover, she was around for some time - less than I have, but still - and didn't post anything except for some shaky impressions. Unnaturally quiet as well, considering the heaps of information.

To tell you the truth, I came around way too late yesterDay, my brain was totally not on ww mode (I last played in January or February?) and I was distracting myself with other stuff and failing to concentrate on the game as much as it would have deserved. This all explains my (admittedly) poor performance yesterDay, but like I've said, it will be improved toDay. I was somewhat suspicious of Lottie (if I recall correctly I was suspecting her and Eomer the most) but had no real proof for it so I was really happy to jump on Shasta's reasonable-seeming case of her - I desperately needed to suspect someone a bit more seriously with the deadline and the necessity to vote looming rather close. It was not very "professional" but it's the truth about what happened.

Originally Posted by G55

I'm still thinking about this. She voted for Lottie (who we now know is a wolf), but apologises for it. Of course, that could be an innocent thinking she's going on a Lottiewagon, but it could be something much more sinister. I'm more inclined towards the former, but you never know!

I felt like apologising a little because I considered my own reasoning shoddy (based on a not-so-strong gut-feeling and someone else's arguments) as well as that I was lacking the conviction to really want anybody dead at that point and especially because Lottie with her controversial manner is so often the obvious choice for lazy thinkers on Day1.

Kit - I don't understand how you can read my posts and reach the conclusion that I thought Lottie was innocent at any point. I had to check as it perplexed me that you said that: I most definitely first said I'm unsure, then thought she looks worse for being squishy, then named her and Eomer my feeble top suspects and after Shasta made his case kind of seriously started to suspect her. (And yes, I had a moment of doubt when she posted a reaction that seemed innocent to me but then I decided she was still my best bet and voted her.)

Originally Posted by Nilp

Has never 'seen Lommy so decisive! Especially on Day 1! Something to consider...' (He referred to a post 79 of hers, which actually was Kit's )

I believe he referred to my rather waffly post a few post before Kit's and was being sarcastic.

Originally Posted by Nog

It is interesting that Kit decided to concentrate her effort toDay (well, thus far) into close-reading those who got LottieWolf lynched. Now wolf-on-wolf votes do happen every now and then and I'm not suggesting some people should be made immune or putting them beyond suspicion just because they voted / lynched a wolf. But Kit's priorities look interesting: like she wishes to turn the discussion away form somewhere else?

Interesting observation, but I cannot fathom what she'd be so desperate to steer the discussion away from, unless she and G55 or Sally are the remaining wolves (then she definitely would like to present new targets, but if I recall correctly, her interactions with the two don't really look like that). I have to agree though that when a wolf was lynched, it is rather funny to start eyeing those who lynched her suspiciously - it doesn't seem very much like innocent logic. I mean, an innocent would want to pose the question "did anybody try to defend/save Lottie?" first (I imagine), while a wolf is more likely to go down the "let's analyse the bandwagon" path because she doesn't have to figure out who's evil and who's not.

Originally Posted by Nerwen to Nog

Are you talking about Lottie's claim that she "didn't know Kit was playing"? I don't know– it was, of course, suspicious, with hindsight– but it might have been meant as a more general "look at me, I'm a clueless innocent" ploy, rather than having anything to do with Kit herself. On the other hand (or paw) Lottie did make quite a point of it: at #106 she says, Did I miss something? I could well have - I totally forgot Kit was playing at all, I might have forgotten there was a cobbler, too...

I have to say that as a wolf I have a few times been tempted to make a list and intentionally omit a fellow from there and claim it was an accident (as I accidentally omit people every now and then) to seem less like fellows, but I always decided not to do it because it felt dishonest. So Lottie's Kitanna comment seems interesting to me, because I know from personal experience it's something that could occur to a wolf but on the other hand I'm not sure if Lottiewolf would like to lie intentionally any more than mewolf...

Originally Posted by Mith

I would point out that this fascinating little Ranger twist (dont' remember anything quite like it in games I have played),means that while in ranger games the wolves will always have weigh the risk of not getting a kill against trying to get the players most dangerous to them out of the way - and if there are readable seer hints it will alert both Ranger and wolves potentially. This game there is the risk that one of them will die as well as not getting the desired kill. Dependent on how likely the surviving wolves feel any potential Seer is to have dreamt of them early they may think that risking another dream and getting a more certain kill is a better path than going for the most obvious first and possibly starting day 2 down to a lone wolf (even with seer/ranger out of the way). OK that was a verbose way of saying that the choice of Shasta may not be of major significance.

Now this passage seemed rather fishy to me. Don't get me wrong, it's good to try to get into the wolves' heads and try to reconstruct their thinking and she's making sense, but this is rather complicated especially as Mith implied she's not at the height of her brainpower at the moment. Ok, even if we allow that even a Mith with not the best of her brainpower can come up with advanced wolf thinking theories there's still the most eyebrow-raising part: the last sentence. It really looks like Wolf Mith wrote her genuine thoughts there and then to downplay her complicated thinking by saying it was just a verbiose way of saying that the choice of Shasta might not be so significant.

[Mithalwen]

No it was just the coffee was kicking in and having read through to make sure it made some kind of sense I realised that is what it boiled down to.I was trying ot make it clear having been queried on my mention that it is suspicious not to know the rules theory which seemed quite obvious to me.

I was thinking about the significance of the Ranger issue yesterday as I mentioned in one of the posts. I was up to the rather simple task of relating actual events to previously considered hypostheses on the game structure in my fragile state. What I wasn't up to but am going to try is to try and sort out the far more complex webs of interactions and analyses thereof .

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Interesting observation, but I cannot fathom what she'd be so desperate to steer the discussion away from, unless she and G55 or Sally are the remaining wolves (then she definitely would like to present new targets, but if I recall correctly, her interactions with the two don't really look like that). I have to agree though that when a wolf was lynched, it is rather funny to start eyeing those who lynched her suspiciously - it doesn't seem very much like innocent logic. I mean, an innocent would want to pose the question "did anybody try to defend/save Lottie?" first (I imagine), while a wolf is more likely to go down the "let's analyse the bandwagon" path because she doesn't have to figure out who's evil and who's not.

I'm never terribly fond of the "good-votes-are-really-bad-votes" meme myself. I seem to recall times it's got so out of hand that the baddies could quite openly go after the very people who'd helped take one of them down.

Still, you must admit it has often been the case that a wolf jumps on the bandwaggon. With last Night's, I suppose it would most likely be you (thought Seer-Shasta had dreamed Lottie) or Nog (just throwing his hands up). That said, the dynamics of yesterDay aren't the kind where you can say there definitely had to be wolf-on-wolf voting... so it's a bit of a dead end at the moment.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

again today, pretty much soon as Inzil opens the new day, both of them are posting and defending their votes.

Because neither of us did it properly yesterDay. If all the Lottie-lynchers could just say "what Shasta said" and vote, my vote had to be explained, especially because I didn't comment too much on Lommy before.

Here we have Loslote defending both of them yesterday.

Lottie defended me? She didn't vote me (for whatever reason. I mean, Eomer did, and later Sally), but she seemed to suspect me quite strongly! I was the only person she had anything to say about.

I promise not to just pick on you two but you both worry me quite a bit!

I seem to worry everyone qite a bit... :P and so does Sally...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I have grown a bit unsure about Galadriel toDay, because of her rather strongly defensive posting. I mean, it is mostly just defense. Sure, there are some accusations or suspicions from Kitanna and such, but her first post toDay starts with defense of her actions yesterDay - was it necessary? Or does she just feel over-threatened?

Yesterday in RL I was so tired I could barely finish that reply to Kit, and I said that all of my own thoughts and notes will wait till today.

I'm doing it again, aren't I?



OK, so something of content. Finally.

Suspicions of Kit go up. She suspected quite a few of my posts in her ananysis basically repeating the general attitude only after everybody else said pretty much the same thing. Before (when she debated Sally and Bom further) there wasn't anything fishy enough about them. Not enough to comment, at any rate.

An approximate timeline (only the relevant posts)

Kit makes the posts suspecting both Bom and Sally, but more the former.
I comment.
Greenie analyses my post.
I reply to Greenie.
Kit makes a note about Greenie's post, says Bom stil looks worse than Sally.
Greenie replies to my reply to her.
Eomer: "G55 has defended Sally about three times!"
Eomer: "The jump on Bom is bewildering."
Kit flipflops on Sally and says that she is not more suspicious than Bom.
Eomer calls my original comments to Kit "the most suspicious thing yet posted"
Kit votes Sally.


Now if my posts were so suspicious, why didn't Kit ever make a note of them before? Plus, Greenie&Eomer both questioned them. However, now that Pretty-much-Everybody decided that I'm fishy, she suddenly finds them odd.


Suspicions of Lommy floating midway (explained in previous posts).


Legate still sounds good, even though I've gone from "quite reasonable" to "somewhat suspicious" in his books.


Eomer is still a mystery.


Mith I don't quite get toDay. Her post in #205 confuses me. What's weird is that she posted a lot, but she never got in the thick of the arguments. Maybe not evil, but weird.


Nerwen's arguments look innocent enough, although she continues to be aloof. I don't detect traces of fur on her, but she's so far away there that it's hard to see. :P


Nilp didn't post anything of content.


More to come a bit later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Nilp didn't post anything of content.

I see that we shall be getting along grandly.

[Kitanna]

Has anyone seen Bom? I found him worth a second look and now he's disappeared completely.

Suspicions of Kit go up. She suspected quite a few of my posts in her ananysis basically repeating the general attitude only after everybody else said pretty much the same thing.

My first post of today said I'd be looking at you for just that reason. I wanted to know why people found you so suspicious. Seeing as you got two votes yesterday it seemed fairly reasonable to me I should see why.

It is interesting that Kit decided to concentrate her effort toDay (well, thus far) into close-reading those who got LottieWolf lynched.

I missed a lot after my vote post. The biggest thing that happened was the death of known baddie, Lottie. So, I proped deeper. And this is not where I'm solely concentrating effort, it's where I started.

Like I said in my last post I wanted to take a look at Mith. I'm not sure what to think of her. And that feeling goes for a lot of others.

Mith:
1) Nothing much, some banter for Nilp
2) Asks why Shasta doesn't want to post (he had stated he was thinking of waiting until jokes ended and serious playing began)
3) Nothing useful
4) Here she says she finds it suspicious to not know the rules. She stated later this is a way to give the impression of a confused innocent.
5) Nothing useful
6) Not much
7) Nothing useful
8)

I don't know what Sally is playing at though. It is ten days til she says she has to go and in a game this size it is unlikely to be an issue. And apart from the ethics of participating in a game knowing you may not be able to see it through, I can't see any benefit of drawing attention to it so far in advance. I may be being thick but I can't see it being a helpful tactic for any role we have in the game. A hunter needs to get themselves killed to fulfil their purpose but we don't have one and it would be impossible for a Hunter to be in a position to make a good call that early in the game.

This is what she had to say on Sally.
9) Nothing useful
10) Nothing useful
11) Clarifies to Legate what she meant about not knowing the rules and wolfishness
12) Further clarification
13) Nothing useful
14) I think she's talking to Sally here about voting last minute. Not much else of note
15) Responds to Sally, saying I have clearly had an effect on her
16) Says Sally seemed the most suspicious so far and added a vote count. Also will look at Lottie
17) Says she's going with her strongest pick which happens to be Sally
18) More of the "not knowing the rules can be evil" debate
19) Douglas Adams
20) Asks Lommy if this be a bandwagon for Lottie
Day 2:
21) Makes a note of the ranger role and the twist it has added. (if you don't know what I mean check out the admin thread for clarification)
22) Continued rules jargon
So what to think about Mith. I stated before there was something about her posts I found strange, but not necessarily fiendish. I'm still of this mind, which might be what she's going for. She seems utterly fixated on the rules and those who "make a show" of not knowing them. Returning to this topic once or twice doesn't worry me, but she kept going back, even into today. She really only mentioned Sally and Lottie as possible choices in two posts. For Sally the only reason I could see was for her vote was based on Sally's ordo reveal in her second post. But even then she didn't seem to voice strong convictions about it. And she just says she wants to look harder at Lottie, but doesn't say anything about what she learned or if she did. Mith has been fairly vocal, but hasn't said much of interest. It's hard to pin her down, which is unsettling. I have no idea what to think of Mith even now. She's worrying, but it's hard to get any theories to stick to her. Oh Mith, you hurt my brain.

I feel one wolf may be a submarine at this point. Someone no one has really looked at or who hasn't gotten any suspicions thrown at them. There are four I can think of off the bat (Nerwen, Greenie, Eomer, and Nilp), but if I had to time to scrutinize everyone's posts from yesterday I'm sure I could find more.

Unfortunately due to errands and RL duties I can't keep doing that. I had more I wanted to look at (Lottie and Nog and the submarines) but I simply can't. For now I'll have to content myself with the here and now. I'll be back in a few hours.

[Galadriel55]

#51 - comments on the "Sally-Bom business". bis more innocent than not. Thinks Bom's post is fishier than Sally's ordo reveal, but doubts his guilt because so many people suspect him. Calls Nerwen careful and neutral. Questions some parts of Kit's post about her suspicions for Bom and Sally, but agrees with others. Argues with some of my statements about the matter.

#54 - nothing useful

#62 - replies to my reply to her first post.

#65 - votes Bom because he intended to vote Sally for her "DeathWish".

D2

#227 - comments on different posts

#228 - list. Nerwen, Mith, and Nilp are unknown. The others are either "leaning innocent" or she's "confused about" them.

#229 - nothing useful

#235 - Nerwenalysis. No definite conclusion: could go either way.

#236 - again nothing useful

#238 - votes Eomer. She called him "crafty" in her list and said that he confuses her.

D3

#345 - explains her Eomer vote and makes some very keen points.

#374 - another list. What differs from the previous list:

-Questions Legate about his reasoning yesterDay, doesn't want to form an opinion before he explains (on the previous list Legate was his "wishy-washy self" and there was no certain opinion.)

-Thinks me more innocent that not (whereas before she was torn about me.)

-Alarmed about Nog's role in the Kitwagon (otherwise the same as in the last list)

The opinion about other people didn't change much.

#348 - nothing much

#349 - Kitwagon summary.


Conclusion: I have very little to say about Greenie except that she made some good points. Both of her votes were sort of random, but she explained them, and I'll leave it at that for now. So far she sounds innocentish, but her votes still bug me a little. So she safely stays in my "yellow" category.

Edit: xed with Sally

[A Little Green]

Just my luck. I'm the only one here for over an hour, then people appear just as I'm going to bed. Anyway, I'm not at all sure about this, but since I want to base my vote on an actual logical reason instead of a vague fishy feeling I haven't havd the time to check properly, my vote will go to

++ Nogrod

[A Little Green]

I'm going now, but fully expect to be more around toMorrow if I'm still alive. Good night sweethearts.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Hm, hum, my head has this light-flashy thing moment going on.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I'm mildly surprised no-one thought I was a Seer due to my jocular accusation of Lottie.

I'm still getting all these strange vibes from Kitanna. Surprising, I know, me listening to vibes instead of the voting pattern and intentions. Well, there's her intention of building interesting cases--the Sally-and-Bom-lyses yesterDAY (q.v.) was mildly suspicious already, and sinking her hooks on a voted-for-a-known-baddie Lommy (q.v.) is strongly so. (Unless the metagame has strongly shifted towards fatal wolf-on-wolf voting? In which case the analysis would not be unfounded. Meh, but I wouldn't know the metagame right now.)

My suspicions of her are reinforced by the fact that Shasta, the baddies's most probable Seer-suspect, has said this of her and then said that he suspected her (q.v.) before he died. (Which reminds me; I need to do a Shasta-lysis.)

Greenie (<3) has, in her few posts, gone deep into an analysis of the posts so far and found a few gems worth consideration (q.v.). So, hug.

Mith and Eomer were doing pushes and probes to get some discussion going, to make DAY 1 less random than usual. More hugs.

My thoughts on ThinLegate and Nog have already been covered above. Group hug.

About the rest I still feel somewhat equivocal: G55 feels like a confused Ordo (but baddies like that cloak, so meh) and Sally-chan is always insane. Nerwen seems to have a jammer against my sensors (I can never seem to read her) and Bom is missing.

Did I miss anyone?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

21:

I kind of don't even want to post until people have gotten this out of their system, but I am in fact aware the game has started. I'm excited - we've gone too long without a game of WW on the 'Downs.

23: Banter w/ G55

37: Answers Mith's query regarding his reluctance to post: he was once killed on DAY 1 (as a Seer, ooh).

Comments on the 'only game-related thing thus far,' which is Bom's infamous statement re Sally's earlier infamous stament and Nerwen's comment about it. Has nothing to say about it, except asking Bom for an explanation.

113: Elaborates his thoughts on Bom's post: a joke that could be used as a casus voting.

Comments on Kit's analysis of Sally's infamous statement. His summary:

I'm a little confused - Kitanna's suspicious are Sally and Bom, and she seems to be suspicious of Bom for being ready to vote Sally, which to me seems a bit counter-intuitive.

Does a preliminary analysis of Sally, but remains unsure of her.

Comments on G55's statements re Kit and Bom, and he does not agree that both are baddies.

Asks Greenie regarding her thoughts on Nerwen:

Greenie, you've called Nerwen "careful" and "neutral" twice now. Do you suspect her, or not?

Agrees with Mith's assessment of Sally's infamous statement: it's not helpful for whichever side Sally's in.

Agrees with Eomer's assessment of the jump on Bom's infamous statement: 'bewildering'.

Agrees with Nog's assessment of Greenie:

[ . . . ]I find it odd Greenie makes some sense saying that what Bom said looked more like "this is what I'm going to do unless there is a better option" and not "there is our wolf, let's lynch her together now". But then she went on and voted for him. (Nogrod)

Has never 'seen Lommy so decisive! Especially on Day 1! Something to consider...' (He referred to a post 79 of hers, which actually was Kit's )

Disagrees with Eomer; he finds Kit's accusation of Sally and Bom 'hypocritical'.

117: Agrees with Leg's assessment of one of Sally's statement (where she said she suspects G55.) He found it 'odd'.

118: Banter.

121: A little correction of his statement re Sally as dead ordo and village defeat.

122: Banter. (I want beta-readers, too, also. )

134: Thinks that Sally is more innocent than baddie based on feel instead of content (but would want more content from her).

Says that he could vote for Kitanna, couldn't vote for Bom, but decides to look at Lottie.

138: The Lottie-lysis. She was, according to her, contradictory in the way she dealt with G55; she said she didn't want to vote for her, but piled suspicion upon her nonetheless.

139: Votes for Lottie on the basis of his previous analysis.

144: Repeats his analysis of Lottie.


CONCLUSION
(i.e., what the baddies might have seen):

He was at first more inclined to vote for Kitanna before his Lottie-lysis. Both cases have been built on analysis of their post, so there was not a trace of Sight detectable in it.

He was unsure of Sally, suspected her a bit, then decided she was more innocent based on feel, which does indicate a trace of Sight. Also, the way he flip-flopped (so to speak) about her may be construed as an attempt to hide his sureness of her role.

Either the baddies thought him someone who dreamt of one of their kin, or dreamt of an innocent Sally (which the baddies might have been trying to get lynched).

However, I'm slightly more inclined to think that they thought that he was just too sharp (which he seem to have a reputation of.)

(His interactions with the other are somewhat too insignificant to address at this time.)