WW LXXXIX: The Terror of Tol Fuin

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am around only for a brief entry, will be away then and around only for the somewhat later part of the Day...

Opening with a random remark:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I remember that oh so well. 'twas my first game and no one gave me this so-called "newbie pass". Rather I was mercilessly killed on Day 2...

But newbie passes usually go only for Day 1. Relatedly, this also means that I am no longer bound by it when it comes to voting newbies

Now, to the other stuff - as for why Shasta died, I would not dare to say anything definite, but I would incline to what Nilp said:

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

However, I'm slightly more inclined to think that they thought that he was just too sharp (which he seem to have a reputation of.)

He was also simply the first one in the row of Lottie-voters, and this time all of them look rather innocent, so killing one of them was probably a good option.

As for the Lottie-voters themselves, I am not very suspicious of them (especially as I am one of them too, "Of course I know him! He's me!"). Nog, as the "last nail", does not make very much of a sense for a W-on-W vote (okay, it can be, but the voting yesterDay was interesting in that quite many people did not vote, or voted rather randomly in the last few minutes). And I don't really think Lommy is a Wolf either, despite what e.g. Kitanna says. The comment "now wondering how the outcome..." she cleared for me already yesterDay and I can understand it the way she had put it, simply having second thoughts now that suddenly one finds herself a part of a huge (or, "huge") bandwagon - that of course can make one wonder "did I fall into some Wolvish trap of a bandwagon for innocent?" (especially as there doesn't seem to be any worthy contesting bandwagon!). I mean, a Wolf, seeing her friend lynched, would not suddenly come out shouting "oh my, I wonder how this is going to end!", but rather stay quiet. What good will it bring to her? Therefore, I really see all Lottie-voters rather okay for the time being.

I have grown a bit unsure about Galadriel toDay, because of her rather strongly defensive posting. I mean, it is mostly just defense. Sure, there are some accusations or suspicions from Kitanna and such, but her first post toDay starts with defense of her actions yesterDay - was it necessary? Or does she just feel over-threatened? "When I voted it did not seem like a throwaway vote at all." And then explanation. Was it necessary?

And the vague suspicion of Lommy also seems to me quite odd. Also, clinging to it toDay might be an attempt to appear consistent. This:

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I'm still thinking about this. She voted for Lottie (who we now know is a wolf), but apologises for it. Of course, that could be an innocent thinking she's going on a Lottiewagon, but it could be something much more sinister. I'm more inclined towards the former, but you never know!

as you can notice, ends with the typical "of course, it is... but maybe it is... but you never know!" Vague without saying much. I think I will be watching G55 toDay rather closely.

Also her analysis of the Shasta-case:

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I recall a few people suspecting Lottie earlier in the thread, some even said they intend to vote her, but none really making one solid argumentive "summarizing" case against her until Shasta did. Now where did that stroke of inspiration come on him? He was debating a bit about everyone, but more about me, sally, Kit, and Bom. In 134 he considers voting [B]Sally/B], but wants more thought from her before a final decision. Then considers vote for Kit, but discards it because she'd be a throw-away.

Decides he'll analyze Lottie and does so in #138. Votes. More people follow.

The way I understood Shasta's post#134 is that Lottie wasn't his top priority, and that he'd rather vote for Kit, or possibly Sally. Interesting. But lucky that he voted Lottie.

sounds like something she could have come up together with her packmate at Night, and the "but lucky that he voted Lottie" sounds just false - random - weird ending of it all. "Interesting" and all that, why to say that? I would have almost expected it ending "...Lottie wasn't his top priority, but he voted her, which is interesting. Therefore, we have decided he was the Seer and killed him." and now she just replaced it by the "lucky that he voted Lottie" for the public reading.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

More importantly, though, we also have a known wolf to look at, and G55 happens to be the only person that wolf went after.

So, the key question, then is: how likely is it that Wolflote would make a wolf-on-wolf attack on Wolf55 at that point and in that way?

Valid question. Unfortunately, right now I don't have time to write more about that, and I shall be back at the computer only later during the Day. But I can try to think about that.

So, I'll be back later. For the time being, to summarise - I think Nog and Lommy are innocent, and I am watchful of G55, and also from the impressions of their posting, Nilp looks rather good and Nerwen maybe too. Hope to see other not-so-much-clear-posters posting around toDay too.

EDIT: x-ed with all Eomers. He's exactly one of those I would like to get a clearer picture of...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The G55/ Loslote relationship is interesting.

I shouldn't let my suspicions of G55 conceal the likelihood that the evil Loslote voted for an innocent villager on Day One. So you've definitely got that going for you.

But because I'm suspicious of her, it looks to me like Loslote kind of backed herself into a corner when it came to her vote choice. She first defended G55 (I quoted the post above), but then mentioned her as a suspect - I believe after I (and Sally!) had raised questions about G55. I know as a wolf it can be hard to come up with reasonable assessments of villagers and it looks like Loslote simply failed to do it - she maybe ran out of time. Either way, she ended up with only G55 as a possible vote.

But she did put herself at pains to sway other people from voting G55, repeating over and over that she felt bad about voting G55 on her first day of Werewolf.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

EDIT: x-ed with all Eomers. He's exactly one of those I would like to get a clearer picture of...

You ought to know by now, Legate, that no-one can ever get a clear picture of me!

I'll need to go and check that Lommy case again, as it looked interesting. You seem quite certain of her innocence but then I suppose you would know more than us.

[Nogrod]

Just a quick one here, more later when I have time to look at this properly.

It is interesting that Kit decided to concentrate her effort toDay (well, thus far) into close-reading those who got LottieWolf lynched. Now wolf-on-wolf votes do happen every now and then and I'm not suggesting some people should be made immune or putting them beyond suspicion just because they voted / lynched a wolf. But Kit's priorities look interesting: like she wishes to turn the discussion away form somewhere else?

Another interesting thing. Lottie tends to get lynched on D1 more often than the average player. Therefore I was not suspicious of her at first when the suspicions started to gather around her as I thoguht it's just her normal "looking suspicious" -behaviour - and I have been lynching her on D1's quite a few times already. But then I saw that slip regarding Kitanna - and that really started to make me suspect her for real.

Now if I'm right about it, that I suspected Lottie from the correct reason, then it would point to Kitanna being a second baddie.

So, for the two reasons given here, I see my eyes focusing toward Kit toDay. I'll try to take a closer look on her posting as I come back.


But anyway, we had a great Day yesterDay even if it looked a bit mild and lazy for the first 20 hours... but the last four hours rocked!

[Mithalwen]

Hello, I am now around but I may not be very active til later - have been a little unwell overnight and not feeling quite the ticket yet. However v impressed by the amount there is to read .though I haven't quite grasped the detail yet. There are certainly some interesting interractions.

Just as a by the way before I get down to digesting the analyses (and Mithalwen's second law of werewolf is to check such things for wolf may lurk therein - some are faux helpful rather than faux-naif).

I would point out that this fascinating little Ranger twist (dont' remember anything quite like it in games I have played),means that while in ranger games the wolves will always have weigh the risk of not getting a kill against trying to get the players most dangerous to them out of the way - and if there are readable seer hints it will alert both Ranger and wolves potentially. This game there is the risk that one of them will die as well as not getting the desired kill. Dependent on how likely the surviving wolves feel any potential Seer is to have dreamt of them early they may think that risking another dream and getting a more certain kill is a better path than going for the most obvious first and possibly starting day 2 down to a lone wolf (even with seer/ranger out of the way). OK that was a verbose way of saying that the choice of Shasta may not be of major significance.

[Thinlómien]

I think we got quite lucky with Lottie - at least I didn't suspect her very seriously and voting her was partly laziness of thought from my part. Either way, I'm glad we are one wolf down already. Now we can safely fail a few Days.

Shasta the seer suspect? The obvious conclusion is that the wolves thought him to have dreamt of Lottie. However, like others have pointed out, it's curious why the wolves picked exactly this kill - was it fear of the ranger like Mith suggests or were all the other suspicions/trusts standing out just way off?

Also, someone implied Lottie, Sally and G55 trio? Huh, that would be totally insane.

Now off to reply to some points from toDay...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

[ . . . ]I would point out that this fascinating little Ranger twist (dont' remember anything quite like it in games I have played),means that while in ranger games the wolves will always have weigh the risk of not getting a kill against trying to get the players most dangerous to them out of the way - and if there are readable seer hints it will alert both Ranger and wolves potentially. This game there is the risk that one of them will die as well as not getting the desired kill. Dependent on how likely the surviving wolves feel any potential Seer is to have dreamt of them early they may think that risking another dream and getting a more certain kill is a better path than going for the most obvious first and possibly starting day 2 down to a lone wolf (even with seer/ranger out of the way). OK that was a verbose way of saying that the choice of Shasta may not be of major significance.

When I grow up, I wanna be as smart as my Mummie.

(Trans: That's something I haven't thought of. Heh.)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It is interesting that Kit decided to concentrate her effort toDay (well, thus far) into close-reading those who got LottieWolf lynched. Now wolf-on-wolf votes do happen every now and then and I'm not suggesting some people should be made immune or putting them beyond suspicion just because they voted / lynched a wolf. But Kit's priorities look interesting: like she wishes to turn the discussion away form somewhere else?

Another interesting thing. Lottie tends to get lynched on D1 more often than the average player. Therefore I was not suspicious of her at first when the suspicions started to gather around her as I thoguht it's just her normal "looking suspicious" -behaviour - and I have been lynching her on D1's quite a few times already. But then I saw that slip regarding Kitanna - and that really started to make me suspect her for real.

Now if I'm right about it, that I suspected Lottie from the correct reason, then it would point to Kitanna being a second baddie.

Are you talking about Lottie's claim that she "didn't know Kit was playing"? I don't know– it was, of course, suspicious, with hindsight– but it might have been meant as a more general "look at me, I'm a clueless innocent" ploy, rather than having anything to do with Kit herself. On the other hand (or paw) Lottie did make quite a point of it: at #106 she says, Did I miss something? I could well have - I totally forgot Kit was playing at all, I might have forgotten there was a cobbler, too...

Originally Posted by Nilp

(Trans: That's something I haven't thought of. Heh.)

Seconded. That would explain a few things– it's been suggested the wolves thought Shasta was the Seer because of his case on Lottie and/or comments about Sally, but I find that unlikely (unless they panicked). It's just so hard not to think of getting the Seer as the lupine priority.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by G55 about me

´An hour before DL she still didn't have any solid opinions on anyone, which is quite strange, because there has been enough going on yesterDay. She said that "none of the arguments really convince" her in #128. She was very quick to jump on Shasta's reasoning - right he was to suspect Lottie as we know toDay, but how would I have known yesterDay? - in #140. Moreover, she was around for some time - less than I have, but still - and didn't post anything except for some shaky impressions. Unnaturally quiet as well, considering the heaps of information.

To tell you the truth, I came around way too late yesterDay, my brain was totally not on ww mode (I last played in January or February?) and I was distracting myself with other stuff and failing to concentrate on the game as much as it would have deserved. This all explains my (admittedly) poor performance yesterDay, but like I've said, it will be improved toDay. I was somewhat suspicious of Lottie (if I recall correctly I was suspecting her and Eomer the most) but had no real proof for it so I was really happy to jump on Shasta's reasonable-seeming case of her - I desperately needed to suspect someone a bit more seriously with the deadline and the necessity to vote looming rather close. It was not very "professional" but it's the truth about what happened.

Originally Posted by G55

I'm still thinking about this. She voted for Lottie (who we now know is a wolf), but apologises for it. Of course, that could be an innocent thinking she's going on a Lottiewagon, but it could be something much more sinister. I'm more inclined towards the former, but you never know!

I felt like apologising a little because I considered my own reasoning shoddy (based on a not-so-strong gut-feeling and someone else's arguments) as well as that I was lacking the conviction to really want anybody dead at that point and especially because Lottie with her controversial manner is so often the obvious choice for lazy thinkers on Day1.

Kit - I don't understand how you can read my posts and reach the conclusion that I thought Lottie was innocent at any point. I had to check as it perplexed me that you said that: I most definitely first said I'm unsure, then thought she looks worse for being squishy, then named her and Eomer my feeble top suspects and after Shasta made his case kind of seriously started to suspect her. (And yes, I had a moment of doubt when she posted a reaction that seemed innocent to me but then I decided she was still my best bet and voted her.)

Originally Posted by Nilp

Has never 'seen Lommy so decisive! Especially on Day 1! Something to consider...' (He referred to a post 79 of hers, which actually was Kit's )

I believe he referred to my rather waffly post a few post before Kit's and was being sarcastic.

Originally Posted by Nog

It is interesting that Kit decided to concentrate her effort toDay (well, thus far) into close-reading those who got LottieWolf lynched. Now wolf-on-wolf votes do happen every now and then and I'm not suggesting some people should be made immune or putting them beyond suspicion just because they voted / lynched a wolf. But Kit's priorities look interesting: like she wishes to turn the discussion away form somewhere else?

Interesting observation, but I cannot fathom what she'd be so desperate to steer the discussion away from, unless she and G55 or Sally are the remaining wolves (then she definitely would like to present new targets, but if I recall correctly, her interactions with the two don't really look like that). I have to agree though that when a wolf was lynched, it is rather funny to start eyeing those who lynched her suspiciously - it doesn't seem very much like innocent logic. I mean, an innocent would want to pose the question "did anybody try to defend/save Lottie?" first (I imagine), while a wolf is more likely to go down the "let's analyse the bandwagon" path because she doesn't have to figure out who's evil and who's not.

Originally Posted by Nerwen to Nog

Are you talking about Lottie's claim that she "didn't know Kit was playing"? I don't know– it was, of course, suspicious, with hindsight– but it might have been meant as a more general "look at me, I'm a clueless innocent" ploy, rather than having anything to do with Kit herself. On the other hand (or paw) Lottie did make quite a point of it: at #106 she says, Did I miss something? I could well have - I totally forgot Kit was playing at all, I might have forgotten there was a cobbler, too...

I have to say that as a wolf I have a few times been tempted to make a list and intentionally omit a fellow from there and claim it was an accident (as I accidentally omit people every now and then) to seem less like fellows, but I always decided not to do it because it felt dishonest. So Lottie's Kitanna comment seems interesting to me, because I know from personal experience it's something that could occur to a wolf but on the other hand I'm not sure if Lottiewolf would like to lie intentionally any more than mewolf...

Originally Posted by Mith

I would point out that this fascinating little Ranger twist (dont' remember anything quite like it in games I have played),means that while in ranger games the wolves will always have weigh the risk of not getting a kill against trying to get the players most dangerous to them out of the way - and if there are readable seer hints it will alert both Ranger and wolves potentially. This game there is the risk that one of them will die as well as not getting the desired kill. Dependent on how likely the surviving wolves feel any potential Seer is to have dreamt of them early they may think that risking another dream and getting a more certain kill is a better path than going for the most obvious first and possibly starting day 2 down to a lone wolf (even with seer/ranger out of the way). OK that was a verbose way of saying that the choice of Shasta may not be of major significance.

Now this passage seemed rather fishy to me. Don't get me wrong, it's good to try to get into the wolves' heads and try to reconstruct their thinking and she's making sense, but this is rather complicated especially as Mith implied she's not at the height of her brainpower at the moment. Ok, even if we allow that even a Mith with not the best of her brainpower can come up with advanced wolf thinking theories there's still the most eyebrow-raising part: the last sentence. It really looks like Wolf Mith wrote her genuine thoughts there and then to downplay her complicated thinking by saying it was just a verbiose way of saying that the choice of Shasta might not be so significant.

[Mithalwen]

No it was just the coffee was kicking in and having read through to make sure it made some kind of sense I realised that is what it boiled down to.I was trying ot make it clear having been queried on my mention that it is suspicious not to know the rules theory which seemed quite obvious to me.

I was thinking about the significance of the Ranger issue yesterday as I mentioned in one of the posts. I was up to the rather simple task of relating actual events to previously considered hypostheses on the game structure in my fragile state. What I wasn't up to but am going to try is to try and sort out the far more complex webs of interactions and analyses thereof .

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Interesting observation, but I cannot fathom what she'd be so desperate to steer the discussion away from, unless she and G55 or Sally are the remaining wolves (then she definitely would like to present new targets, but if I recall correctly, her interactions with the two don't really look like that). I have to agree though that when a wolf was lynched, it is rather funny to start eyeing those who lynched her suspiciously - it doesn't seem very much like innocent logic. I mean, an innocent would want to pose the question "did anybody try to defend/save Lottie?" first (I imagine), while a wolf is more likely to go down the "let's analyse the bandwagon" path because she doesn't have to figure out who's evil and who's not.

I'm never terribly fond of the "good-votes-are-really-bad-votes" meme myself. I seem to recall times it's got so out of hand that the baddies could quite openly go after the very people who'd helped take one of them down.

Still, you must admit it has often been the case that a wolf jumps on the bandwaggon. With last Night's, I suppose it would most likely be you (thought Seer-Shasta had dreamed Lottie) or Nog (just throwing his hands up). That said, the dynamics of yesterDay aren't the kind where you can say there definitely had to be wolf-on-wolf voting... so it's a bit of a dead end at the moment.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

again today, pretty much soon as Inzil opens the new day, both of them are posting and defending their votes.

Because neither of us did it properly yesterDay. If all the Lottie-lynchers could just say "what Shasta said" and vote, my vote had to be explained, especially because I didn't comment too much on Lommy before.

Here we have Loslote defending both of them yesterday.

Lottie defended me? She didn't vote me (for whatever reason. I mean, Eomer did, and later Sally), but she seemed to suspect me quite strongly! I was the only person she had anything to say about.

I promise not to just pick on you two but you both worry me quite a bit!

I seem to worry everyone qite a bit... :P and so does Sally...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I have grown a bit unsure about Galadriel toDay, because of her rather strongly defensive posting. I mean, it is mostly just defense. Sure, there are some accusations or suspicions from Kitanna and such, but her first post toDay starts with defense of her actions yesterDay - was it necessary? Or does she just feel over-threatened?

Yesterday in RL I was so tired I could barely finish that reply to Kit, and I said that all of my own thoughts and notes will wait till today.

I'm doing it again, aren't I?



OK, so something of content. Finally.

Suspicions of Kit go up. She suspected quite a few of my posts in her ananysis basically repeating the general attitude only after everybody else said pretty much the same thing. Before (when she debated Sally and Bom further) there wasn't anything fishy enough about them. Not enough to comment, at any rate.

An approximate timeline (only the relevant posts)

Kit makes the posts suspecting both Bom and Sally, but more the former.
I comment.
Greenie analyses my post.
I reply to Greenie.
Kit makes a note about Greenie's post, says Bom stil looks worse than Sally.
Greenie replies to my reply to her.
Eomer: "G55 has defended Sally about three times!"
Eomer: "The jump on Bom is bewildering."
Kit flipflops on Sally and says that she is not more suspicious than Bom.
Eomer calls my original comments to Kit "the most suspicious thing yet posted"
Kit votes Sally.


Now if my posts were so suspicious, why didn't Kit ever make a note of them before? Plus, Greenie&Eomer both questioned them. However, now that Pretty-much-Everybody decided that I'm fishy, she suddenly finds them odd.


Suspicions of Lommy floating midway (explained in previous posts).


Legate still sounds good, even though I've gone from "quite reasonable" to "somewhat suspicious" in his books.


Eomer is still a mystery.


Mith I don't quite get toDay. Her post in #205 confuses me. What's weird is that she posted a lot, but she never got in the thick of the arguments. Maybe not evil, but weird.


Nerwen's arguments look innocent enough, although she continues to be aloof. I don't detect traces of fur on her, but she's so far away there that it's hard to see. :P


Nilp didn't post anything of content.


More to come a bit later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Nilp didn't post anything of content.

I see that we shall be getting along grandly.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm a little confused - Kitanna's suspicious are Sally and Bom, and she seems to be suspicious of Bom for being ready to vote Sally, which to me seems a bit counter-intuitive.

I do agree with this, though. Kit brings up the Sally-vote in a showcase-like manner, then suspects Bom for starting it in the first place.

Really, oh pigeon? Suspecting Sally and then suspecting Bom for suspecting Sally seems a bit hypocritical to me.

This is all from one of Shasta's posts, and a couple of other people have suggested the same: that Kitanna looks weird and possibly hypocritical for suspecting Bom for his infamous Sally-comment, and then suspecting Sally herself.

But Kitanna had a case against Sally; she suspected Sally for different reasons than Bom had (if he actually suspected her at all - which I doubt). I don't see how that's hypocritical. I'm not defending Kitanna per se, but this is not a successful argument against her.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

How about her case against known evil-slaying Lommy? When there could be, I don't know, far better suspects?

(Will most likely be back before DL. Toodles!)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

How about her case against known evil-slaying Lommy? When there could be, I don't know, far better suspects?

(Will most likely be back before DL. Toodles!)

That's an entirely different kettle of fish, dear Nilpaurion, and one which I shall investigate posthaste!

[Kitanna]

Has anyone seen Bom? I found him worth a second look and now he's disappeared completely.

Suspicions of Kit go up. She suspected quite a few of my posts in her ananysis basically repeating the general attitude only after everybody else said pretty much the same thing.

My first post of today said I'd be looking at you for just that reason. I wanted to know why people found you so suspicious. Seeing as you got two votes yesterday it seemed fairly reasonable to me I should see why.

It is interesting that Kit decided to concentrate her effort toDay (well, thus far) into close-reading those who got LottieWolf lynched.

I missed a lot after my vote post. The biggest thing that happened was the death of known baddie, Lottie. So, I proped deeper. And this is not where I'm solely concentrating effort, it's where I started.

Like I said in my last post I wanted to take a look at Mith. I'm not sure what to think of her. And that feeling goes for a lot of others.

Mith:
1) Nothing much, some banter for Nilp
2) Asks why Shasta doesn't want to post (he had stated he was thinking of waiting until jokes ended and serious playing began)
3) Nothing useful
4) Here she says she finds it suspicious to not know the rules. She stated later this is a way to give the impression of a confused innocent.
5) Nothing useful
6) Not much
7) Nothing useful
8)

I don't know what Sally is playing at though. It is ten days til she says she has to go and in a game this size it is unlikely to be an issue. And apart from the ethics of participating in a game knowing you may not be able to see it through, I can't see any benefit of drawing attention to it so far in advance. I may be being thick but I can't see it being a helpful tactic for any role we have in the game. A hunter needs to get themselves killed to fulfil their purpose but we don't have one and it would be impossible for a Hunter to be in a position to make a good call that early in the game.

This is what she had to say on Sally.
9) Nothing useful
10) Nothing useful
11) Clarifies to Legate what she meant about not knowing the rules and wolfishness
12) Further clarification
13) Nothing useful
14) I think she's talking to Sally here about voting last minute. Not much else of note
15) Responds to Sally, saying I have clearly had an effect on her
16) Says Sally seemed the most suspicious so far and added a vote count. Also will look at Lottie
17) Says she's going with her strongest pick which happens to be Sally
18) More of the "not knowing the rules can be evil" debate
19) Douglas Adams
20) Asks Lommy if this be a bandwagon for Lottie
Day 2:
21) Makes a note of the ranger role and the twist it has added. (if you don't know what I mean check out the admin thread for clarification)
22) Continued rules jargon
So what to think about Mith. I stated before there was something about her posts I found strange, but not necessarily fiendish. I'm still of this mind, which might be what she's going for. She seems utterly fixated on the rules and those who "make a show" of not knowing them. Returning to this topic once or twice doesn't worry me, but she kept going back, even into today. She really only mentioned Sally and Lottie as possible choices in two posts. For Sally the only reason I could see was for her vote was based on Sally's ordo reveal in her second post. But even then she didn't seem to voice strong convictions about it. And she just says she wants to look harder at Lottie, but doesn't say anything about what she learned or if she did. Mith has been fairly vocal, but hasn't said much of interest. It's hard to pin her down, which is unsettling. I have no idea what to think of Mith even now. She's worrying, but it's hard to get any theories to stick to her. Oh Mith, you hurt my brain.

I feel one wolf may be a submarine at this point. Someone no one has really looked at or who hasn't gotten any suspicions thrown at them. There are four I can think of off the bat (Nerwen, Greenie, Eomer, and Nilp), but if I had to time to scrutinize everyone's posts from yesterday I'm sure I could find more.

Unfortunately due to errands and RL duties I can't keep doing that. I had more I wanted to look at (Lottie and Nog and the submarines) but I simply can't. For now I'll have to content myself with the here and now. I'll be back in a few hours.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Lommy:
3)
Innocent viewpoint of Lottie.

------


What happened to Lottie? She thought her innocent...

Looks like Lommy hasn't responded to this, but:

Kitanna, I think you misunderstood Lommy's original post about Loslote (the thing where she mentions 'innocence stock'). She never at any stage had an innocent view of Loslote.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Will probably be around later but there's a chance I'll have no internet access whatsoever, so I'll vote now.

++Galadriel55

Was suspicious of her yesterday, and she looks more suspicious with every post. Not certain she's guilty or anything but she is my top suspect.

Interested in seeing Kitanna's comeback on Lommy, which I'm pretty sure will have to be toned down as it seems to rest on a misinterpretation.

Sally still suspicious. Wondering about Nerwen, Mithalwen and Nilp.

Hopefully (probably) back later.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mith

No it was just the coffee was kicking in and having read through to make sure it made some kind of sense I realised that is what it boiled down to.I was trying ot make it clear having been queried on my mention that it is suspicious not to know the rules theory which seemed quite obvious to me.

I was thinking about the significance of the Ranger issue yesterday as I mentioned in one of the posts. I was up to the rather simple task of relating actual events to previously considered hypostheses on the game structure in my fragile state. What I wasn't up to but am going to try is to try and sort out the far more complex webs of interactions and analyses thereof .

Fair enough.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Still, you must admit it has often been the case that a wolf jumps on the bandwaggon.

Yes, I admit it. But the only one who "jumped on a bandwagon" yesterDay was Nogrod, Legate and I both thought we were posting the second vote and I don't call that bandwagoning. In my opinion that's not much against Nog yet.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Looks like Lommy hasn't responded to this, but:
Kitanna, I think you misunderstood Lommy's original post about Loslote (the thing where she mentions 'innocence stock'). She never at any stage had an innocent view of Loslote.

I did reply it in my long post up there - and indeed I did not say Lottie is innocent at any point...

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

You ought to know by now, Legate, that no-one can ever get a clear picture of me!

Too true, since you're jumping around so much.

I don't know what to think of you either (of course I'm tempted to say you're evil, since you voted me twice already, and that's an evil thing to do! ).



#67 - nothing much. Introduction. Says we have a "careful village"

#69 - voices his suspicion/disagreement (?) on me and Sally

#70 - nothing of importance

#73 - "The jump on Bom is bewildering."

#84 - thinks Bom's post is funny

#89 - calls my post "the most suspicious thing yet posted"

#97 - makes sure he can highlight

#100 - votes me

DAY2

#199 - questions Nip and Lottie's "conversation"

#200 - "Sally and G55 seem completely intent on making people suspicious of them": we defended our votes

#202 - examines Lotties possible connection with me.

#203 - Says that Lommy's case is interesting. Wants to examine it.

#214 - thinks that Kit is NOT hypocritical

#216 -
[QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

That's an entirely different kettle of fish, dear Nilpaurion, and one which I shall investigate posthaste!

#218 - corrects Kit about Lommy

#219 - votes for me again.


How can one possibly get a clear picture of him when he jumps around so much?

Edit: xed with Lommy

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, I admit it. But the only one who "jumped on a bandwagon" yesterDay was Nogrod, Legate and I both thought we were posting the second vote and I don't call that bandwagoning. In my opinion that's not much against Nog yet.

I remember Legate saying that he intends to vote Lottie. You were less suspicious about her, but you said at some point that you have a bad gut-feeling about her and Eomer.

I can't see Legate's case as a wolf-on-wolf. Yours could be turned either way. I'm still thinking about you.

You bring up Nog. I think I'll analyse him too, if time permits (as I have to run somewhere now but will be back in about an hour.)

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I remember Legate saying that he intends to vote Lottie. You were less suspicious about her, but you said at some point that you have a bad gut-feeling about her and Eomer.

I think he was unsure between Sally and Lottie?

Anyway, a list:

Bom Tombadillo - mm no idea, especially as he has disappeared. More evidence please! I don't think his jump on Sally was necessarily evil, more like careless/weird thinking.

Nogrod - I like him this far. He makes sense in a way that makes me confortable, but also says weird stuff enough that I don't worry about him being a smooth super manipulative wolf guru. Also, his vote nailed Lottie's coffin, which also might be a point in his favour.

Kitanna- I'm trying not to suspect her, because I always suspect her and because I don't want to be knee-jerky AND because everyone else suspects her and I'd rather not add my voice to that choir with this little evidence, but she is a little suspicious. The thing that worries me the most is how her analyses/posts seem like they aim at pointing out suspicious behaviour, not at catching wolves. It's a subtle difference but it might be there.

G55 - I'm quite impressed by her very un-newbieish playing style! Other than that, I don't really have much opinion, except that she doesn't strike me as overtly defensive like Legate said.

Sally - nothing new: she tends not to proclaim her innocence when she's evil, but otherwise I cannot judge her.

Eomer - very interesting. He has apparently taken a gallant knight tactic, rushing to defend other players wherever he sees a misunderstanding or a faulty accusation (to exaggerate a bit). I'm not sure what to make of it (if it's wolvish buddying up or genuine innocent helpfulness), but at least my gut-feeling of him is better toDay than yesterDay.

Nerwen - arg, slipping under my radar. No idea. Should pay more attention to her or she wll do the typical wolf-Nerwen win.

Greenie - hasn't been around enough to judge properly. Wasn't too suspicious yesterDay anyhow.

Nilp - I'm trying to avoid thinking him innocent just 'cos he thinks I'm innocent, but I seriously cannot see anything off with this guy for now. Of course, he's known to pull impressive innocent face stunts before, so maybe I shouldn't be sure.

Mithalwen - other than having great wolvish insights, not much to say about her. Doesn't strike me as too bad or too good, and I agree with whoever (Kit?) said her concentration on the rules makes her difficult to read.

Legate - on the other hand, he seems very genuine, on the other, his smooth manner reminds me of the evil genius Legate. I think he is actually rather under my radar. Leaning innocent anyhow.

...and where are the wolves in this list of unsures and innocents? Dunno. If I had to bet, I'd say Kit and Mith, or maybe Kit and Nerwen. No idea though (happily there's still plenty of time 'til DL but I'll be away for the next few hours).

[Mithalwen]

[QUOTE=Thinlómien;657734]Yes, I admit it. But the only one who "jumped on a bandwagon" yesterDay was Nogrod, Legate and I both thought we were posting the second vote and I don't call that bandwagoning. In my opinion that's not much against Nog yet.

QUOTE]

One thing I have looked at is Nilp's voting list - I think actually though it looked like a band waggon on this occasion appearances were deceptive. IT was all incredibly last minute. Effectively only 9 valid votes (excluding Nilp's playing silly beggars and Sally's plain late) and close - last hour started with only 3 votes cast and the decisive ones came in a four minute spell. So it looks like quite a bit of brinkmanship was going on. But why? The late voters (save Sally) weren't in danger of being lynched and needing to save themselves. Gah I feel there is osmething in this but I can't get at it and I am confusing myself (not helped by realising I muddled voter and votees in my notes. I also wonder if it is significant that Loslote didnt' vote. She might have saved herself if she had gone for another candidate. If she thought herself doomed I suppose she didn't want to leave any clues.

[Bom Tombadillo]

Wow. I have been SERIOUSLY lacking in timeliness this game (I pretty much forgot I was playing YesterDay) and don't really have time to do anything at the moment either - I will set an alarm to make sure I don't miss two days in a row though.

Back in a few hours,

Bom Tombadillo

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I think he was unsure between Sally and Lottie?

I don't remember what he planned to do with sally, but I am quite certain that he wanted to vote Lottie much before Shasta's analysis.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also, his vote nailed Lottie's coffin, which also might be a point in his favour.

I'm not so sure. Lottie had the most votes before he voted. It was your and Legate's votes that did the trick.

And then this line that he says when voting:

Originally Posted by Nog in #168

I see this has been decided while I was writing my last post. Let's check it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Kitanna- I'm trying not to suspect her, because I always suspect her and because I don't want to be knee-jerky AND because everyone else suspects her and I'd rather not add my voice to that choir with this little evidence, but she is a little suspicious.

So is she suspicious or isn't she? Despite that she's a "little suspicious", you try not to suspect her.

???

Originally Posted by Lommy

G55 - I'm quite impressed by her very un-newbieish playing style!

Thank you, although I don't know if that's a good thing for me or a bad one.


... ... ... BOM!!!! You're back!!!! Please post something worthwhile when you return. We need it.

[A Little Green]

Gah. I thought I'd be here ages before now but RL interfered. I need to go to sleep soon I'm afraid but I'll do my best.

Originally Posted by Nog

On another quick note. As I just skimmed through what had happened the last I find it odd Greenie makes some sense saying that what Bom said looked more like "this is what I'm going to do unless there is a better option" and not "there is our wolf, let's lynch her together now". But then she went on and voted for him.

To me, considering (or appearing to consider) lynching someone because they'll die anyway is a wolfish thing to do. A lynch wasted, basically.

Originally Posted by Nog

Heh, I'm feeling nostalgic. I haven't made this rant in years

No? I thought you make it every game..

Originally Posted by Shasta

Greenie, you've called Nerwen "careful" and "neutral" twice now. Do you suspect her, or not?

Neither, I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by Galadriel, about Lommy

I'm still thinking about this. She voted for Lottie (who we now know is a wolf), but apologises for it. Of course, that could be an innocent thinking she's going on a Lottiewagon, but it could be something much more sinister. I'm more inclined towards the former, but you never know!

I'm not sure I follow this logic. Would a wolf preparing to vote for a fellow underline how sorry she was to do it?

I'll be making a list soon. My mind is pretty much a mess right now so the result might not be very intellectual.

[A Little Green]

Bom - Was my best bet yesterDay. His idea of a "mercy lynch" for Sally still makes me wary of him, but I'll leave him be for now. At least I want to hear more from him before I decide anything, and I'll most likely be gone by the time he reappears.

Eomer - Confuses me, as usual. I think Lommy made an interesting observation of how he has taken up the role of a gallant knight, but like Lommy, I have no clear idea of what it might mean. He's certainly crafty enough to use something like that as a deliberate strategy to win himself some allies.

Galadriel - I'm very torn about her. Half the time, she seems very sincere, and much of what might be called suspicious about her posts could be attributed to this being her first werewolf game ever (defensiveness, backtracking on her suspicions once someone questions them). On the other hand, (in addition to that the defensiveness and the occasional backtracking that could just as well be signs of being a new wolf) there is something very fishy in the way she phrases some things. The passage about Lommy quoted in my previous post is a case in point.

Kit - Argh, I'm torn about her too.

Legate - His normal wishy-washy self, and as such, could be anything.

Lommy - I have a hard time seeing her as a wolf. She seems sincere.

Mith - Back to the no idea -zone...

Nerwen - ...and remaining solidly there. What always bothers me about Nerwen is that I can read a dozen of her posts, absorbing the content but never much of its writer. I'd like a look at her if I have time.

Nilp - Having a hard time reading him. As always.

Nog - Leaning innocent. Or maybe I'm lulled into a false sense of security just because he sort-of suspected me on Day 1 (and he always does when he's innocent). The down side, of course, is that I always tend to suspect him when he's innocent. So maybe that I don't just means he's a wolf this time.

Sally - Her "I'm an ordo and I'm going to die" -post looked sincere to me. Some of the stuff she's said since made me want to reconsider, especially her way of instantly turning to suspect those who suspected her.

[A Little Green]

Also, if there's anyone around I wouldn't mind a chat. It's kind of dull to appear, comment on previous posts, vote, and go to bed. (Partly my own fault of course, only coming here this late.)

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Kitanna, I think you misunderstood Lommy's original post about Loslote (the thing where she mentions 'innocence stock'). She never at any stage had an innocent view of Loslote.

I went back to read it. I saw the word innocence bolded above the post and that clicked in my mind as Nog and Lottie were innocent to her. No, she doesn't actually say she thinks Lottie is innocent, but she also doesn't really say she thinks she guilty either in that post.

PS: I'm glad to see Bom is back.

[Mithalwen]

Not sure I buy the forgot I was playing line since he actually posted.

[satansaloser2005]

Just popping in to say that, yet again, I'll be very quiet. I've far too many calls to make at work this afternoon, so I doubt I'll be on the webs much. I just wanted to let you all know so you didn't wonder where I'd wandered off to this time.

Shasta: WHY?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!???!?!?!?!?!?!?! !?!!?!?!!?!!?!?

I'm wondering if Shasta was killed because he was on the right track (Kit and the like) or because the wolves had nothing better to do (as in a no-trace kill or a pot shot at the ranger). I'll try to do my own lookover of his posts, but I'm not sure I'll have time toDay.

Speaking of the ranger....now that the wolves are down a pup, do you think they'll try to kill the ranger, or would they leave him/her alone? Killing the ranger could kill one of them as well, so I'm thinking we may see more random kills than attempts at slaying gifteds (or at least the ranger). Perhaps I'll offer more thoughts on this later, but....well, again with the time thing.

Speaking of time, I'm out of it. I know I'll be back to vote at some point, but it may be a rather in and out deal. We'll have to see. Until my return!


P.S. Sorry if this post is a bit frantic, but I'm typing my mad bloody fastest and I'm really tired. Blah. >.<

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, if there's anyone around I wouldn't mind a chat. It's kind of dull to appear, comment on previous posts, vote, and go to bed. (Partly my own fault of course, only coming here this late.)

Chat chat chat chat...

I have been working on a Nogalysis, and I'm halfway through.

Originally Posted by Mith

Not sure I buy the forgot I was playing line since he actually posted.

Well, he forgot about a RPG a long time ago... *glares at Bom*

Actually that line makes me think of him as more ordo than not. If he was a wolf or gifted, would he really forget his responsibilities?

Suspicions of Bom go down somewhat, though still not dropped.

Edit: xed with Sally

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Killing the ranger could kill one of them as well, so I'm thinking we may see more random kills than attempts at slaying gifteds (or at least the ranger).

The Ranger cannot self-protect. The twist comes into effect only if both the Ranger and the Wolves have the same target. And in that case, there are three possibilities.

[A Little Green]

Had a quick look at Nerwen.

NERWEN, DAY 1

Only one post, no vote. But then, I'd have been surprised if there had been one. Basically she summarises what Nilp, Sally, and Bom have done, and asks Bom to clarify how much of his famous post was a joke. I think I've called this post of Nerwen's careful and neutral twice already. She takes no stance on any of the issues she comments on, and, this being her only post of the Day, we have pretty much nothing on what was going through her mind that Day.


NERWEN, DAY 2

In her first post toDay, she (surprisingly) laments Shasta's death and wonders why he was killed.

However, looking at yesterDay's chaos of accusations, counter-accusations and passionate defences, it's interesting that apparently nobody looked more like the Seer to the wolves. Shasta's case on Lottie was built on in-game evidence– whereas, a good many players seemed ready to defend/suspect others at the drop of a hat.

I think this is a valid point. The trouble is, I could also see a Nerwolf trying to distract the village into futilely debating the reasons behind the kill. This would point, possibly, to a packmate gathering too much attention. Nah. I don't know.

Actually, some of Sally's reaction to G55 could be a wolf trying to distance herself from a cub who's been too quick to defend her. It would fit that pattern quite well in fact. However, as you say, she did press it further than would be needed– so if they're in it together, it would mean Sallywolf was trying to bus her newbie comrade for little reason.

More importantly, though, we also have a known wolf to look at, and G55 happens to be the only person that wolf went after.

So, the key question, then is: how likely is it that Wolflote would make a wolf-on-wolf attack on Wolf55 at that point and in that way?

I really like Nerwen in this post. She's sharp and her reasoning is sound, and the points she makes are ones I'm not sure a wolf would be fond of making.

Her third toDay continues the speculation of a possible Lottie-Sally-Galadriel-trio.

It's perhaps more likely Wolflote would go strongly after a newbie comrade than Sallywolf, simply because Lottie tends to be very pessimistic about her own chances of survival– she might have reasoned that ione or other of them would probably die early anyway, and thus that a real wolf-on-wolf attack was the best bet. All the same, it's most unusual for a wolf to give herself no other option but voting a comrade.

Not much to say about Lommy, except to concur that her Legate-180 on Wolflote is peculiar (even coming from the Queen of Flip-floppers).

Her fourth starts with pondering the implications of Lottie forgetting or "forgetting" that Kit was playing. Again, sensible and sharp.

Are you talking about Lottie's claim that she "didn't know Kit was playing"? I don't know– it was, of course, suspicious, with hindsight– but it might have been meant as a more general "look at me, I'm a clueless innocent" ploy, rather than having anything to do with Kit herself. On the other hand (or paw) Lottie did make quite a point of it: at #106 she says, Did I miss something? I could well have - I totally forgot Kit was playing at all, I might have forgotten there was a cobbler, too...

She then moves on to comment on Mith's idea that the modified Ranger might affect the choices of Night kills:

Seconded. That would explain a few things– it's been suggested the wolves thought Shasta was the Seer because of his case on Lottie and/or comments about Sally, but I find that unlikely (unless they panicked). It's just so hard not to think of getting the Seer as the lupine priority.

The problem I have with this argument is that Shasta, though not particularly Seerish, still seemed to me an obvious choice for Night kill, given his role in the lynching of Lottie. Therefore if the wolves were afraid of the Ranger, I doubt they'd have gone after Shasta.

Conclusions? I think there's too little material to form any definite conclusion from, but for now, I'll remain wary of her. What bothers me is that even as all her posts could go either way, at the same time half of them scream "innocent" and the other half "suspicious".


EDIT: x-ed since my last - yay people!

[A Little Green]

Galadriel, Kit, Mith, Sally (and anyone else happening to be around), a quick query: who are you thinking of voting toDay?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Galadriel, Kit, Mith, Sally (and anyone else happening to be around), a quick query: who are you thinking of voting toDay?

A bit early to ask that. I'm suspecting meny people on different levels now...

Green (very likely to be innocent)
Sally
Legate

Yellow (more likely to be innocent than not)
Mith
Nerwen
Greenie

Orange (various levels of suspiciousness)
Nog
Lommy
Kit

Red (possible wolves)
Hmm. people from "orange", "unknown", or one from each, perhaps?

Unknown
Bom (awaiting posts!!!)
Eomer (jumps too much)
Nilp (his posts don't really register in my brain. Have to do something about it.)

[A Little Green]

Bed-time.

++ Eomer

[Galadriel55]

Nogalysis

First two posts are of no importance

#77 - Doesn't think that Sally and Bom are suspicious. Thinks that "those who notice something first" are ok, but those who jump on it without adding anything of their own are not. Says that Greenie is a bit contradictory to her logic with her vote (Bom).

#80 - Sees Bom's post as innocent because of the joke-tone. Intentions:

If there is no reaally suspicious person to vote I'd rather go to those who try to be really neat and unprovoking, careful, easy, non-commitant, unnoticed, low, behind a mask, only bantering... whatever.

#81 - Doesn't want Kit lynched because of the way she posts. Summarises the Sally/Kit situation.

#83 - Sees some patterns. Makes sure we consider this:

Which is not to say I think or know that Sally and/or Bom are innocents. They just feel more like it than not at the moment.

He already said that in #77: "neither Sally or Bom look that suspicious to me". He doesn't say they are, only that they look. Wants to underline it?

#96 - "Rants" and feels nostalgic about it. Says it's more important that Kit posts something of content to reffer back to than if she is innocent or not.

#108 - "uneasy" with those who thought I make sense because I made comments that were "against a well-informed goodie". Makes a neat observation about sally's reaction to Eomer's vote. (Possibly suspects sally?)

#112 - argues with sally. (Suspects her?)

#132 - confirmes his suspicions on Sally. Explains. Says that it's a rather good D1 since there are sides/alliances/whatever. Will vote for Sally unless something else comes up. Wants to think of how my "connection" to Sally might influence his opinion on her.

#146 - Raises questions about the reason for Lottie's mention of Kit (how she didn't know Kit was playing). Lottie and Kit could possibly be "mates in crime". The second part:

Kit has been suspected of suspecting both Sally & Bom (between whom there seems to be some suspecting), but that is perfectly natural: it's not that uncommon in WW to suspect two players who are at each others' throats. X and Y can be suspicious while you know they both most probably aren't. So those who simple-mindedly turn this into a reason to suspect Kit I find a bit suspicious themselves - especially if it looks like that with that suggestion they'r trying to save someone they have a relation with.

(Underlining mine) The first part is allright. But the last sentence, especially the underlined? The only "connection" he spoke of is my defence of Sally. If you suspect me for "having a relation" with Sally , why not say so? You made it a more general statement instead; were you really saying "Anyone who suspects Kit is on my bad list"?

In the first half of the post, you say there's a possibility that Lottie and Kit may be partners. But in the second, your opinion of Kit is quite positive.

???

#151 - Jumps on Lottie for mentioning her reaction to Kit's posts at a whim.

#153 - asks about the vote count

#162 - attacks Lottie again. Says that she probably wants to estrange herself from Kit

#168 - Votes Lottie.

I see this has been decided while I was writing my last post. Let's check it.

What has been decided? Lottie's fate? For some reason this line strikes me as suspicious, though I can't quite pin it down.

#175 - calls Nilp rusty for his self-vote.

DAY2

#204 - Says that Kit concentrates on those who lynched Lottie (I am not quite sure this is true since I was her first case). Thinks that Kit could be trying to turn the talk away from someone else (I don't get how that would work either. Who? Sally? She suspects her!). Says that what really made him suspect Lottie was her "slip regarding Kitanna".

Now if I'm right about it, that I suspected Lottie from the correct reason, then it would point to Kitanna being a second baddie.

, wants to focus on Kit toDay.

Change of heart after Lottie's wolfish self was revealed?

[Nogrod]

@Greenie: no idea...

Hah, only got the thread skimmed through as my laptop's mobile-network refused to connect for some reason and I had to awake my old tabletop PC (which took like 1½ hours, no kidding involved ).

And this blasted machine is updating millions of things one after another still (hasn't been used in a month or something) so this might be slow going for some time still.

But I'm working on it.


EDIT: see - my post was an answer to Greenie's question, and it took me ten minutes to make this (PC jamming)- then I decided to make this edit amd in jammed again for the next ten minutes... I love this old PC!